Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[CumbrianLefty]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

Such a thing might be almost automatically presumed these days?

[kelestian]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

I don't see anything bad here. Kornilov is just another journalist/pro-government russian expert. He also writes a lot about Netherlands/EU, so...

[Zinneke]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

I don't see anything bad here. Kornilov is just another journalist/pro-government russian expert. He also writes a lot about Netherlands/EU, so...

Yep, all just a series of coincidences. Definitely no need for Ockam's Razor here at all. Move along.

WeIrd how the Dutch right has always voted against transparency of party funding. It could clear up who are Wilders and Baudet's backers are, as well as DENK's.

[kelestian]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

I don't see anything bad here. Kornilov is just another journalist/pro-government russian expert. He also writes a lot about Netherlands/EU, so...

Yep, all just a series of coincidences. Definitely no need for Ockam's Razor here at all. Move along.

WeIrd how the Dutch right has always voted against transparency of party funding. It could clear up who are Wilders and Baudet's backers are, as well as DENK's.

What exactly do you mean? Yes, he was friendly to Russia, so nothing strange in talking with russian joutnalist. Do you seriously implying that a) Kornilov is intelligence agent b) Baudet is working with him for Russian government? You need to prove that.

[Zinneke]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

I don't see anything bad here. Kornilov is just another journalist/pro-government russian expert. He also writes a lot about Netherlands/EU, so...

Yep, all just a series of coincidences. Definitely no need for Ockam's Razor here at all. Move along.

WeIrd how the Dutch right has always voted against transparency of party funding. It could clear up who are Wilders and Baudet's backers are, as well as DENK's.

What exactly do you mean? Yes, he was friendly to Russia, so nothing strange in talking with russian joutnalist. Do you seriously implying that a) Kornilov is intelligence agent b) Baudet is working with him for Russian government? You need to prove that.

No, I just don't think it is a coincidence that

- Baudet suddenly popped up out of nowhere following a referendum on Ukraine that was hyped up by a very similar group of people on social media who campaigned exclusively on this topic for no reason whatsover other than weird pro-Russian conspiracy theories that led to it in the first place...

-  that his initially tiny think tank has never struggled for funds or publicity

- that there was ever a "space" for his party in Dutch politics given Wilders has, with the exception of position on the geopolitical status quo (Wilders backers are Bible Belt evangelicals and neo-cons as well as the Israeli far right, making him a strong advocate for Atlantacist foreign policy), a fairly similar program to Baudet.

- that Baudet has never once been critical of Russia despite them, you know, illegally providing weapons to amateur militia who ended up shooting down a civilian airliner full of Dutch people. If you read his texts its borderine on sycophantic defence of Russia whilst his own party members question it.

- And again if you read the messages, he brags about how your Russian historian "knows the right people" and whatnot. So hardly just a friendly get together of like minded individuals.


We're talking FvD here, some of them are conspiracy nuts, so given their standards with the truth and conspiracy theories, I would say they are knee deep in dung. You can stick your head in the sand and play plausible deniability...its the Russian nationalist way after all as they murder their way across Europe. But Dutch people won't be fooled.

[kelestian]

Another wonderful demonstration of far right patriotism :

https://euobserver.com/foreign/148099

I don't see anything bad here. Kornilov is just another journalist/pro-government russian expert. He also writes a lot about Netherlands/EU, so...

Yep, all just a series of coincidences. Definitely no need for Ockam's Razor here at all. Move along.

WeIrd how the Dutch right has always voted against transparency of party funding. It could clear up who are Wilders and Baudet's backers are, as well as DENK's.

What exactly do you mean? Yes, he was friendly to Russia, so nothing strange in talking with russian joutnalist. Do you seriously implying that a) Kornilov is intelligence agent b) Baudet is working with him for Russian government? You need to prove that.

No, I just don't think it is a coincidence that

- Baudet suddenly popped up out of nowhere following a referendum on Ukraine that was hyped up by a very similar group of people on social media who campaigned exclusively on this topic for no reason whatsover other than weird pro-Russian conspiracy theories that led to it in the first place...

-  that his initially tiny think tank has never struggled for funds or publicity

- that there was ever a "space" for his party in Dutch politics given Wilders has, with the exception of position on the geopolitical status quo (Wilders backers are Bible Belt evangelicals and neo-cons as well as the Israeli far right, making him a strong advocate for Atlantacist foreign policy), a fairly similar program to Baudet.

- that Baudet has never once been critical of Russia despite them, you know, illegally providing weapons to amateur militia who ended up shooting down a civilian airliner full of Dutch people. If you read his texts its borderine on sycophantic defence of Russia whilst his own party members question it.

- And again if you read the messages, he brags about how your Russian historian "knows the right people" and whatnot. So hardly just a friendly get together of like minded individuals.


We're talking FvD here, some of them are conspiracy nuts, so given their standards with the truth and conspiracy theories, I would say they are knee deep in dung. You can stick your head in the sand and play plausible deniability...its the Russian nationalist way after all as they murder their way across Europe. But Dutch people won't be fooled.

I wouldn't argue about Baudet, but neither you nor authors of the report know anything about Kornilov and internal Russian things. So, yes - Kornilov is low-level pro-Russian author who writes a lot about France, Netherlands and some other EU countries (in fact, he is emigrant from Ukraine, after Maidan local nazis could attack him). Sometimes takes part in political shows on Russian TV, mostly about situation in Ukraine. He publicly praised both Baudet and Wilders, not a surprise as both are pro-Russian. And i doubt he really is an agent in any sense - he is too public for that.

[Zinneke]

I think the key debate here is the difference between an asset and an agent. I don't believe he is a signed up FSB NOC either...that doesn't mean he has no close ties to them.

Anyway,two more parties are making the headlines : DENK and 50PLUS. Both are in the midst of internal struggles. Denk has always had an internal conflict between the two figures that initially broke off from sp.a, Tunahan Kuzu and Selcuk Ozturk. Kuzu stepped down a month ago as president of the parliamentary group citing personal reasons, because he was screwing around with some employee of DENK's who didn't actually live in the Netherlands (hmmm...). Ozturk wanted to take over while Farid Azarkan has the Presidency of the parliamentary faction  but now the party wants Ozturk to resign along with the board as they investigate the leaks that "took Kuzu down" and he is refusing to do so.

50PLUS have their own internal struggle partly caused by the return of Henk Krol. And the inevitable "ego-off" between 4 rich middle aged boomers, including Krol, was inevitably going to end in tears, with one of them accidently leaking "unsent press releases" and details of meetings where they divided jobs for each other in a clientelistic fashion, one of these meetings being the four category C risk boomers meeting up during confinement while inevitably salivating at the thought of profiting from the "OUR GOVERNMENT WANTS TO CULL OLD PEOPLE" rhetoric at the start of this.

Both parties look set to collapse but it remains to be seen if new ones re-emerge. I can't see Denk reforming if there are breakaway parties, but there is definitely a market for 50PLUS given how pensions are going to be a hot topic when trying to balance the budget under these circumstances.

[Vosem]

Why is 50+ polling so well at the moment? They've been at 10 seats in some recent polling (even as the general trend has been most parties leaking to VVD during the corona crisis), even though they've never actually won more than 4 seats in the parliament. Seems especially odd if the party is undergoing a lot of internal turmoil.

[Zinneke]

Before Corona it had to do with VVD taking some quite unpopular measures relating to pensions, and I think in a way 50PLUS is a key outlet to a significant part of the VVD electorate who would want to express dissatisfaction with VVD's economics - rich boomers in the West who want less taxes on salary and especially sitting capital (NL has tax breaks for capital fluidity, but its more lucrative to sit on capital in Belgium) but better pensions. After Corona, well, they have remained stable I think for obvious reasons - they play on the whole idea that there was a certain carelessness in handling the elderly with herd immunity. Worth posting those polls :

https://twitter.com/EenVandaag/status/1244943138684313600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...


The internal turmoil is pretty recent, and quite frankly its a typical drama that is more of the concern of the politico types like us and the "Haagse Kaasstolp",the Circuit. In the end 50PLUS have a simple message : no touching our pensions. and it creates a cleavage that works. Its the best single issue Krol could have picked (and make no mistake Henk Krol is there to serve Henk Krol's interests, no one elses). They can test the political mood on the latest issue and use it to their advantage. So when the idea of eurobonds or EU transfer union is up, they can bring it back to the pension issue somehow "well you see those pesky Southern Europeans retire earlier than us, and we work hard for our pensions, so No". its populist without being outright offensive/cranky. Had they not shat the bed internally I would have seen them benefit from FvD's troubles too.   

[jeron]

Before Corona it had to do with VVD taking some quite unpopular measures relating to pensions, and I think in a way 50PLUS is a key outlet to a significant part of the VVD electorate who would want to express dissatisfaction with VVD's economics - rich boomers in the West who want less taxes on salary and especially sitting capital (NL has tax breaks for capital fluidity, but its more lucrative to sit on capital in Belgium) but better pensions. After Corona, well, they have remained stable I think for obvious reasons - they play on the whole idea that there was a certain carelessness in handling the elderly with herd immunity. Worth posting those polls :

https://twitter.com/EenVandaag/status/1244943138684313600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...


The internal turmoil is pretty recent, and quite frankly its a typical drama that is more of the concern of the politico types like us and the "Haagse Kaasstolp",the Circuit. In the end 50PLUS have a simple message : no touching our pensions. and it creates a cleavage that works. Its the best single issue Krol could have picked (and make no mistake Henk Krol is there to serve Henk Krol's interests, no one elses). They can test the political mood on the latest issue and use it to their advantage. So when the idea of eurobonds or EU transfer union is up, they can bring it back to the pension issue somehow "well you see those pesky Southern Europeans retire earlier than us, and we work hard for our pensions, so No". its populist without being outright offensive/cranky. Had they not shat the bed internally I would have seen them benefit from FvD's troubles too.   

50plus is now losing seats in the latest polls. Last week the party chair announced his resignation. Henk Krol then said he would reconsider leading the party into the next election.

Meanwhile, CDA decided to get into a coalition with FvD and VVD in the province of North Brabant after an internal referendum. About 20-25% of the members voted and 56% supported a coalition with FvD. The decision was heavily criticised within the party

CDA has not yet chosen its leader for next year’s election. Hoekstra has been favored, though Hugo de Jonge seems to be gaining support. However there is also speculation that both want to avoid being party leader right now, because at the moment Rutte is very popular and CDA would inevitably lose the election to VVD.

[SunSt0rm]

Not really unexpected, but 50+ faction leader Henk Krol, who sided with Dales, has defected from the party and has formed a new party The Party for the Future together with mp Merel van Kooten who defected from the PvdD a year ago. Expect to see a collapse of support of 50+ in the coming weeks.

Moreover, in the turmoil within Denk, faction leader Azarkan has been ousted from the party by the board chaired by Azarkan

[Zinneke]

Not the first time 50PLUS has split tbf but this time it looks terminal.

[Zinneke]

Just realised where I had heard Party of the Future before...a small "Die Partei" like party in the early 2000s was called that and had some pretty awesome features, such as wanting a Minister of Parties

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tVYE3m76A


of course they have essentially been replaced by the "Party against the Citizen"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdoU8A7OKfg


On a more serious note, for dutch speakers the latest Stuk Rood Vlees podcast episode is quite a good one about the history of breakaways in Dutch party history. VVD and PVV (itself a breakaway from VVD) have by far the most amount of defections of elected officials to their name.

[SunSt0rm]

Some polls now during the Corona Crisis shows that the VVD are surging and a collapse of 50+

Peil:
VVD: 32 seats (+12 pre corona)
PvdA: 19 (+2)
PVV: 18 (-1)
CDA: 17 (+4)
GL: 13 (+1)
FvD: 11 (-5)
D66: 10 (-4)
SP: 10 (=)
CU: 8 (+2)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 4 (=)
50+: 1 (-9)
Denk: 1 (-2)
PvdT: 1 (+1) (Krol new Party)

I&O Research:
VVD: 43 (+16)
GL: 16 (-1)
PvdA: 15 (+1)
PVV: 13 (-4)
CDA: 13 (-1)
FvD: 12 (-3)
SP: 11 (+2)
D66: 8 (-2)
CU: 7 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 4 (=)
50+: 1 (-9)
Denk: 1 (=)
PvdT: 1 (+1)

Ipsos (before 50+ defection):
VVD: 39 (+12)
PvdA: 15 (+1)
PVV: 14 (-4)
CDA: 14 (=)
GL: 13 (-2)
D66: 12 (-1)
FvD: 10 (-5)
SP: 8 (+1)
50+: 8 (-2)
CU: 7 (+1)
PvdD: 5 (-1)
SGP: 3 (=)
Denk: 2 (=)

Favourable Rutte-3 government
Favourable: 67%
Unfavourable: 30%

Before Corona it was negative


Support of current Corona measures: 75% (-15)
Support of economic support measures: 63% (-12)

Support of current loosening Corona measures:
Right: 51%
Going too fast: 23%
Going too slow: 22%

[Zinneke]

Amsterdam GroenLinks Mayor Famke Halsema has been heavily criticised for her handling of the BlackLivesMatter protests in her city as the Netherlands is still technically in lockdown over Covid-19. Thousands gathered :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-minneapolis-police-protests-netherlan-idUSKBN2390UP

While she did call for restraint and the organizers did not expect so many to turn out, she was seen walking around rather proudly in the protest which is not an essential domestic issue.

[Zinneke]

developments in Dutch politics :

The Cabinet is preparing an emergency law that will allow it to rule by decree in a lot of policy fields and especially take emergency powers while Corona  is still a threat. Usually its a law designed for brief periods of civil disorder.  Its a preliminary law that still needs to be revised, but several actors, such as the Raad van State, legal academics, the opposition and even some D66ers [who have remembered what their party is about] are against what they call unnecessary and draconian powers afforded to cabinet allowing the suppression of freedom of assembly so easily.

Pension reform was finally agreed among the cabinet and the employers/unions, led by D66 Minister Wouter Koolmees, which is quite an Everest in Dutch (and indeed European) politics due to its perceived unsustainability. Its the biggest pension reform since the 1950s and its quite smart of them to agree it during an unnewsworthy period. It needs confirmation in the Eerste Kamer and will enter into effect in 2022 with 2026 being the deadline for private companies to adopt the new pension system.

Dutch retail and industry is taking a bit of a kicking. There was the announcement of the loss of Unilever's headquarters to UK after a tug of war between them and the Hague. In the end Rutte and Hoekstra tried their best but the fact remains a lot of executives in the Anglo-Dutch company are more London-orientated anyway. Meanwhile retail giant Hema is undergoing administration, just a few years after V&D also went bust. Hema is a bit of a Dutch institution on the retail market and it seems rival Blokker is weighing up a bid. But in general Dutch highstreet retail has not been healthy since the GFC.

Also, in party political news, the Youth wing of the FVD in South Holland had 89 pages of anti-semitic content leaked from their Whatsapp group, including depictions of Anne Frank taking cocaine for some reason(?), but mainly the usual stuff about Jews being against white interests. Baudet denounced what he called a "thought police" in the media that wanted to take action against his movement, but he made one of their high profile members resign in response anyway. Also the FvD's parliamentary group have welcomed ex-VVDer Wyben Van Haga, who was expelled by the VVD for conflict of interest.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

developments in Dutch politics :


Pension reform was finally agreed among the cabinet and the employers/unions, led by D66 Minister Wouter Koolmees, which is quite an Everest in Dutch (and indeed European) politics due to its perceived unsustainability. Its the biggest pension reform since the 1950s and its quite smart of them to agree it during an unnewsworthy period. It needs confirmation in the Eerste Kamer and will enter into effect in 2022 with 2026 being the deadline for private companies to adopt the new pension system.

Any more details? Or maybe some link to the article where I can read about it? Would be very grateful.

[Zinneke]

developments in Dutch politics :


Pension reform was finally agreed among the cabinet and the employers/unions, led by D66 Minister Wouter Koolmees, which is quite an Everest in Dutch (and indeed European) politics due to its perceived unsustainability. Its the biggest pension reform since the 1950s and its quite smart of them to agree it during an unnewsworthy period. It needs confirmation in the Eerste Kamer and will enter into effect in 2022 with 2026 being the deadline for private companies to adopt the new pension system.

Any more details? Or maybe some link to the article where I can read about it? Would be very grateful.

https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-CH/Insights/2019/07/gnb-netherlands-sweeping-pension-reforms-agreed

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, in party political news, the Youth wing of the FVD in South Holland had 89 pages of anti-semitic content leaked from their Whatsapp group, including depictions of Anne Frank taking cocaine for some reason(?), but mainly the usual stuff about Jews being against white interests.

B-but.......I thought anti-Semitism only existed on the left these days?

[Zinneke]

Hard to believe its been almost 4 years since the last election but in March 2021 the Dutch will likely return to the polls and some of the parties' key figures are already jostling to see who will be the Lijsttrekker - the list leader.

Within D66 their poor polling numbers mean Rob Jetten is under pressure...and Sigrid Kaag was waiting in the wings to take the limelight . Jetten just announced he will not even run for leadership, leaving Kaag, a diplomat by profession and current trade minister, to take a leading role in the campaign. Ollongren was also touted, but she's a controversial figure.

In the CDA its quite a mudpit with Hugo de Jonge, the Health Minister praised somewhat for his response after taking up the role impromptu, coming up against Mona Keijzer. A lot of the debate within CDA revolves around whether to contemplate another government with the far right if it comes up. Keijzer refuses to rule out cooperation with FVD, De Jonge is jesuit about his refusal - "I can't envisage working with them". Keijzer is the more right-wing candidate though and already took on the CDA establishment in 2012. Wop Hoekstra was also touted as a favorite as he is fast becoming a figurehead of the harsh tone the Netherlands has adopted towards Southern countries wanting Corona-aid in the form of grants rather than loans-with-conditions. But he said he was "more of a manager" than a political leader and wants to stay in his position.

Lilian Marijnissen was named as SP list leader as was Esther Owehand for the PvdD, replacing Thieme.

I assume the rest will largely stay unchanged :

VVD : Rutte can do what he wants, he's walking on water right now, even if some of his base still might want to emerge one day and try to backstab him again. But he's always had an eye on Europe.
PVV : basically a front for Wilders but will be interesting to see what succession plan he has.
FVD : see PVV, but for Baudet.
GroenLinks : Klaver and his newfound base, judging by the strange videos he releases. continues to believe in the Jessiah complex. He should be in a strong position as official left-wing opposition but could be the flop of the election IMO.
PvdA : not sure what the internal workings are looking like, but their strong EP electoral performance has renewed spirits and Asscher was never blamed for their troubles.

And then the smaller parties whose troubles have been documented here.


Still, a year is a long time in politics and there could be some more backstabbing.

[Zinneke]

Interesting how the Dutch are the most positive towards their colonial heritage.

EDIT : should add that the CDA "leadership" race is 4 way now. At least officially. Martin Van Hijlvert is representing the Limburg branch and anti-Randstad ticket in a sense. Pieter Omzigt is also against the party establishment, more than Kijzer, but somewhat more populist/anti-government. 

[Zinneke]

De Jonge wins the CDA leadership contest.

1rst round
De Jonge 49%
Omtzigt 37%
Keijzer 11%

2nd round
De Jonge 50.7%
Omtzigt 49.3%
only a hundred odd votes difference

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

De Jonge wins the CDA leadership contest.

1rst round
De Jonge 49%
Omtzigt 37%
Keijzer 11%

2nd round
De Jonge 50.7%
Omtzigt 49.3%
only a hundred odd votes difference

Can we expect turn to the center, or wikipedia is far from truth?

[Zinneke]

De Jonge wins the CDA leadership contest.

1rst round
De Jonge 49%
Omtzigt 37%
Keijzer 11%

2nd round
De Jonge 50.7%
Omtzigt 49.3%
only a hundred odd votes difference

Can we expect turn to the center, or wikipedia is far from truth?

Compared to Buma : he's more "urban" as a Rotterdamer and thus might be more progressive-minded on some issues.

Compared to his rivals : a lot of the campaign was about whether to co-operate with FvD and Keijzer was open about her willingness to work with FvD if necessary. De Jonge works well with parties to his right but doesn't want to work with FvD.

Expect the CDA (and the whole spectrum tbh) to shift rightwards though on Europe and the economy, there is no question there is a sort of national close ranks mentality over the demands of the southern countries vs the frugal four that the Netherlands leads...and you can be sure that Rutte and De Jonge/Hoekstra will compete on that same message of "no grants, only loans with conditionality" so soon after the pandemic recovery package. If they fail in swerving right on that, it leaves Wilders and Baudet with an open goal.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/1287380035838648323

Rutte appears to have got away, only just, with the EU deal despite there being a pretty strong national consensus that the strict approach is the right approach and that right-wingers think he could have been stricter.