OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Tender Branson]

Estimated final results, based on what's left to count:

49.9% Balderson (R)
49.5% O'Connor (D)
  0.6% Manchik (G)

R+0.4

In 2016, it was R+37 and in 2014 it was R+40 (US House).

For President, it was Trump+11.

[Xing]

Given how close this race was, it’s safe to say a Heitkamp ad/campaign appearance or a Pearl Jam rock concert with Tester would have swung it in favor or O’Connor. Missed opportunity for Democrats.

Maybe, but Balderson could've responded by courting Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's endorsement, which would easily have given him a 30-point boost.

[Tender Branson]

From the OH SoS Twitter:

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So, the remaining votes won't be all counted today, but over the next week !

[NOVA Green]

From the OH SoS Twitter:

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So, the remaining votes won't be all counted today, but over the next week !

Figures, OH 'PUBS are slimy weasels hiding behind the skirt of impartiality and "Fair Play" (Classic Old Skool Brit Stereotype style circa 1910-1950 of course.   

So, more seriously that raises a few questions:

1.) Where did this whole votes released on 8/18/18 thing come from?.... (I'm assuming on Atlas Forum very thread).

2.) Do we have any idea of how the "official" results will roll out over this time frame from 8/18-8/24?

A. )Will it roll out officially by County once they have checked all of their numbers?

> If so, then in what order?

B.) Will it roll out gradually by County based upon precinct updates as they move through the list?

> arguably from my perspective this might be one of the more interesting "slow rolls" since it gives us more data and a longer time frame to assess EV vs ED vs PV numbers to help forecast the final numbers by place and margins....

C.) Will it be an "all in one dump" circa AZ CD-08 where basically the overwhelming majority of the ballots are counted and released simultaneously?

D.) Will we start to get into a Flordia '00 scene where various elected officials in all of the Counties of the District are playing politics and also in some cases creating their own rules when it comes to what qualifies as a legit Provo vote?

IDK---- Regardless if I had to lay money down Balderson is obviously a value proposition.

Problem still, is that we still don't know where the Provisional ballots are in CD-12.

[Greatblueheron]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

Every vote should be counted.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

The environment could be even worse for Republicans by November, though. Don’t forget multiple Democratic victories in special elections throughout 2009/2010 turned into defeats by November 2010.

[Tender Branson]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

You do not understand how (wave) elections work.

Higher turnout usually benefits the wave party. It doesn't matter if 30% of Dems, 25% of Republicans and 20% Indys turn out in a special election, if also 50% of Dems, 45% of Republicans and 40% of Indys turn out in the general election.

What matters is how they end up voting ... if Independents break strongly for the Dems, they are winning in 10% turnout elections or 95% turnout elections.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

Indeed it was, and that doesn't bode well for O'Connor, since turnout in Franklin was nearly maxed out while rural, largely Republican turnout remained low.

[Tender Branson]

Any news so far ?

I guess they didn't start counting ballots yesterday ... on a Saturday. Probably tomorrow, right ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this is getting really anticlimactic.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

Indeed it was, and that doesn't bode well for O'Connor, since turnout in Franklin was nearly maxed out while rural, largely Republican turnout remained low.

Was turnout in Franklin 100%? No. Then it wasn't maxed out. There's no reason to expect Republican turnout to rise more than Democratic in November.

[Vosem]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

Indeed it was, and that doesn't bode well for O'Connor, since turnout in Franklin was nearly maxed out while rural, largely Republican turnout remained low.

Was turnout in Franklin 100%? No. Then it wasn't maxed out. There's no reason to expect Republican turnout to rise more than Democratic in November.

Reversion to the mean is a good reason to expect turnout in November to follow more "normal" patterns (even if still probably Democratic-favorable) than many of the specials have.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

This wasn't a low turnout special. The turnout was barely lower than 2014.

Indeed it was, and that doesn't bode well for O'Connor, since turnout in Franklin was nearly maxed out while rural, largely Republican turnout remained low.

Was turnout in Franklin 100%? No. Then it wasn't maxed out. There's no reason to expect Republican turnout to rise more than Democratic in November.

Reversion to the mean is a good reason to expect turnout in November to follow more "normal" patterns (even if still probably Democratic-favorable) than many of the specials have.

You're not using that term correctly. If you think November will be more Republican than August, then yes, Republicans should do better. If you (correctly) think it won't, then Republicans will do worse in OH-12.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well this is getting really anticlimactic.

It was always going to be that way, unfortunately.

[2016]

Balderson increases lead, leads by 1.781 Votes as Muskingum & Delaware Counties certified their Results. The other 5 Counties incl. Franklin face a Friday Deadline

http://radio.wosu.org/post/baldersons-lead-grows-12th-district-special-election#stream/0

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

[Gass3268]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

Not a bad strategy when you are going to be giving it another shot in 2.5 months.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

What’s that over there?  Oh right, it’s a morality lecture from someone best known for repeatedly, deliberately, and meliciously spreading false domestic violence allegations

[Bidenworth2020]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

Some people just can't lose an election with any class and dignity.

like trump would have, or saccone did?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

Some people just can't lose an election with any class and dignity.

[Gass3268]

O'Connor still refusing to concede strengthens my belief that he is milking this for all the resistance bucks he can get before they find a new shiny object

Some people just can't lose an election with any class and dignity.

Has your child diddler conceded yet?

[Tender Branson]

With only Franklin and Licking counties to certify their results today, Balderson currently leads by 1.966 votes:

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https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2018/08/24/balderson-extends-lead-congressional-race-ahead-friday-deadline/1078203002

[Tender Branson]

Considering that Franklin and Licking had roughly 2400 remaining ballots each and both had exactly the opposite election results on Aug. 7, I think the remaining ballots will cancel each other out.

Based on this, Balderson will likely win by 1.850-2.050 votes.

That would be a final margin of ~ 1% and not in re-count territory.