PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey way ahead
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Author Topic: PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey way ahead  (Read 6318 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: April 06, 2015, 07:18:09 AM »
« edited: April 06, 2015, 07:30:32 AM by IndyRep »

Toomey (R)..... 48%
Sestak (D)..... 35%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2183

But tell me again, OC, how the convention will oust Toomey Wink Anyway, this is a surprisingly big margin, as surprising as Hillary's numbers in PA. Their PA polls seem to be skewed towards the GOP, I doubt that PA is so much more Republican than OH.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 09:12:12 AM »

Toomey's a decent Senator. I think he'll hang on, but he'll have to distance himself from the Presidential campaign so crossover voters will stay on board.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2015, 09:20:17 AM »

Let me give you some poll numbers Strickland 48 Portman 39, Atwater 34, Murphy 32, and Duckworth will easily beat Kirk. Mastro is leading every Republican, but Sandoval, who might wait til 2018.

All the Dems need is WI and seal the deal in CO and FL to capture senate.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2015, 09:31:54 AM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.
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King
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2015, 09:47:44 AM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2015, 09:59:06 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2015, 10:03:29 AM by IndyRep »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

Carter, Dukakis and Bush II were also ahead by 15-20 points one year before their election as I'm sure you know Wink If Toomey is not inevitable (which he isn't), Hillary will be neither Smiley
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2015, 10:22:49 AM »

I said a while ago that I had a gut feeling Toomey hangs on, but these poll numbers seem a bit exaggerated. Their Ohio numbers also don't help establish a sense of realism.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2015, 10:56:31 AM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

Carter, Dukakis and Bush II were also ahead by 15-20 points one year before their election as I'm sure you know Wink If Toomey is not inevitable (which he isn't), Hillary will be neither Smiley

Taking things in a vacuum and looking for a pattern is asking to be wrong. I bet you were part of the crowd that thought Romney was going to win because the Redskins lost the Sunday before election day.

Carter and Bush II had national tragedy rallies on their numbers. 1987 had a stock market crash and recession that hurt Bush I. They weren't genuinely what their numbers were at this point.

We are in a low point for Hillary Clinton, where she is getting attacked by the media religiously.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2015, 11:11:57 AM »

Keep in mind that Quinnipiac also found Paul ahead of Hillary in PA, which is equally hard to believe. But go ahead, Republicans, underestimate Toomey's vulnerability to your heart's content.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2015, 11:46:45 AM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

Carter, Dukakis and Bush II were also ahead by 15-20 points one year before their election as I'm sure you know Wink If Toomey is not inevitable (which he isn't), Hillary will be neither Smiley

Taking things in a vacuum and looking for a pattern is asking to be wrong. I bet you were part of the crowd that thought Romney was going to win because the Redskins lost the Sunday before election day.

Carter and Bush II had national tragedy rallies on their numbers. 1987 had a stock market crash and recession that hurt Bush I. They weren't genuinely what their numbers were at this point.

We are in a low point for Hillary Clinton, where she is getting attacked by the media religiously.

Nah, I was talking about Bush II in 1999. Anyway, if anything, Hillary has reached her ceiling in the current polls, this doesn't have anyhing to do with a "pattern". Common sense tells me that she won't win by more than 20 points. And it also tells me that such a huge lead is largely based on name recognition (not kidding). Hillary is only narrowly leading Bush, the most known GOPer. Once the campaign starts, her lead will evaporate. If she takes the election for granted, she will lose. It's really simple. And btw: Dukakis' and Carter's leads were not only based on a recession or a hostage crisis.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2015, 01:01:26 PM »

Given the judgement of our resident clairvoyant psephologist, obviously this is a junk poll. Tommey's done. He's a right wing Pub in a progressive state that loves Hillary ... or something like that. I suspect there will be one junk poll after another like this.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2015, 01:04:48 PM »

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2015, 02:09:17 PM »

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.
this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2015, 02:12:30 PM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

That's definitively false.
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2015, 02:24:36 PM »

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

That's definitively false.

In fact, Hagan was barely in positive territory, and it's not even true for Begich:

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan's job performance?
Approve 39% ..................
Disapprove 37% ..............
Not sure 24% .............

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_0417.pdf


Here's Begich in feb. 2013 (closest poll I could find to Today's date):

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve 49% ..........................................................
Disapprove 39% ......................................................
Not sure 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2015, 02:24:49 PM »

I dont buy the polling this time from Quinnipiac.

Toomey up 13 and Portman down 9.

There is no way Toomey is up more than 5 and Ohio is a tossup.

Dewine lost by 10 in 2006, which was a horrible year from the GOP and Portman isnt facing the same problems.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2015, 02:30:44 PM »

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.
this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.

2016 wont be 2012. It will be closer and the GOP downticket will do better

Hillary's strength is with winning more women and white votes than Obama did. But that wont lead to a down ticket sweep, especially if Hillary does well with GOP leaning and Independent women. Obama on the other hand did exceptionally well with people who would vote Dem for every office and not split tickets.

2016 will see more ticket splitting than 2012 did
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2015, 02:34:01 PM »

I dont buy the polling this time from Quinnipiac.

Toomey up 13 and Portman down 9.

There is no way Toomey is up more than 5 and Ohio is a tossup.

For once, I agree with you. Both of these results look silly.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2015, 02:34:52 PM »

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.
this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.

I don't think it's especially amazing. He's had years to prove himself, meanwhile Democrats are looking toward the same guy they looked to years ago.

if he does win big in 2016, then it's Nikki Haley all over again.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2015, 08:16:47 AM »

Pat Toomey can be hit on his environmental record, foreign policy, and labor policy. He barely got elected in a wave election, and 2016 will not be a wave election favoring Republicans.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2015, 10:34:20 AM »

Pat Toomey can be hit on his environmental record, foreign policy, and labor policy. He barely got elected in a wave election, and 2016 will not be a wave election favoring Republicans.

Yeah, totally agree, that's why this is the DNC headquarters. This is the tipping pt state of the senatorial campaign. Dems will win WI and IL together with FL or OH, along with CO/NV corridor, that will seal the deal on control of the senate.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2015, 10:55:50 PM »

Pat Toomey can be hit on his environmental record, foreign policy, and labor policy. He barely got elected in a wave election, and 2016 will not be a wave election favoring Republicans.

By God you will not give up
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Maxwell
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« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2015, 07:19:31 PM »

Dem's still pushing for Josh Shaprio over Joe Sestak.

We may have an interesting primary on our hands after all.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2015, 11:29:43 PM »


"Dem establishment pushing MontCo's Shapiro for Senate" or something along those lines was constantly on the screen on every SEPTA train I was on yesterday - like every fourth screen. I'm impressed that elections are taken so seriously here nearly a year before the primary. Never got anything quite like that in NJ.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2015, 04:15:14 AM »

Keep in mind that Quinnipiac also found Paul ahead of Hillary in PA, which is equally hard to believe. But go ahead, Republicans, underestimate Toomey's vulnerability to your heart's content.

Which Republicans here are doing that?

As far as I know former Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley is considered a potential replacement. However, I'm sure he'll challange Gov. Wolf in 2018.
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