PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey way ahead

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.

this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

That's definitively false.

In fact, Hagan was barely in positive territory, and it's not even true for Begich:

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan's job performance?
Approve 39% ..................
Disapprove 37% ..............
Not sure 24% .............

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_0417.pdf


Here's Begich in feb. 2013 (closest poll I could find to Today's date):

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve 49% ..........................................................
Disapprove 39% ......................................................
Not sure 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf