PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey way ahead

[Maxwell]

Early polls rarely paint an accurate picture of the race, especially in wave years, either way. If we look at 2014, right now you would have thought Peters was going to lose in Michigan and Pryor was going to win in Arkansas.

Hagan and Begich were also +20 approval rating this time in 2013.

That's definitively false.

[Maxwell]

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.

this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.

I don't think it's especially amazing. He's had years to prove himself, meanwhile Democrats are looking toward the same guy they looked to years ago.

if he does win big in 2016, then it's Nikki Haley all over again.

[Maxwell]

Dem's still pushing for Josh Shaprio over Joe Sestak.

We may have an interesting primary on our hands after all.