PA-Quinnipiac: Toomey way ahead

[bobloblaw]

I dont buy the polling this time from Quinnipiac.

Toomey up 13 and Portman down 9.

There is no way Toomey is up more than 5 and Ohio is a tossup.

Dewine lost by 10 in 2006, which was a horrible year from the GOP and Portman isnt facing the same problems.

[bobloblaw]

Sestak has more support than that by default. Even if Toomey somehow over performs by election day, he won't win by more than a 10 point margin.

this. That being said, it looks like Toomey might be able to survive a 2012-style climate. That's just amazing, considering he only won by 2 points in a huge wave.

2016 wont be 2012. It will be closer and the GOP downticket will do better

Hillary's strength is with winning more women and white votes than Obama did. But that wont lead to a down ticket sweep, especially if Hillary does well with GOP leaning and Independent women. Obama on the other hand did exceptionally well with people who would vote Dem for every office and not split tickets.

2016 will see more ticket splitting than 2012 did