LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Miles, would you the PVI for NC state senate and state house, and LA  state senate and state house please?

DKE has Pres-by-Legislative District for NC.

[windjammer]

Miles, would you the PVI for NC state senate and state house, and LA  state senate and state house please?

DKE has Pres-by-Legislative District for NC.

Thank you Miles!

[Miles]

Actual PVIs for the NC State Senate.

Districts map:



The color scheme may get a bit confusing, but the numbering generally runs east to west.

PVIs:

[windjammer]

Actual PVIs for the NC State Senate.

Districts map:



The color scheme may get a bit confusing, but the numbering generally runs east to west.

PVIs:

Thank you Miles, it's depressing. Other note, I think the 33th district is R+20 instead of D+20 according tp 2012 Statewide result!

[Miles]

The NC House:



I don't have my own, but you can look here.

Only 37 districts have Democratic PVIs. Pretty damn impressive.

[Miles]

This isn't really related to any current race, but 'ole Charlie Melancon was back on the Hill today. He had a few interesting thoughts on the healthcare law:

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[Miles]

Well, how bout that! More Republicans may be running in LA.

We've mentioned Rep. Seabaugh here before. Now, Rep. Paul Hollis, who represents a district in St. Tammany parish, has hinted at running for Senate.

Hollis, though a 41-year old first term legislator, is from a family with good name rec. His late father, Ken Hollis, represented Jefferson Parish in the State Senate since the early 1980's. When term limits kicked in, his seat went to Steve Scalise. His stepmother also served on the Jefferson Parish Council.

Having a decent Republican candidate from here would hurt Cassidy, as he needs to make inroads around New Orleans.

Finally, from what Hollis says, more legislators are looking into this race:

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[morgieb]

Is it possible that Cassidy doesn't make the runoff?

[Miles]

Is it possible that Cassidy doesn't make the runoff?

He probably has enough of a base around Baton Rouge and support with the state party in general to at least secure the second spot.

PPP, though, had him trailing 50-40 in a head-to-head with Landrieu; in a primary scenario with two more Republicans, he dropped to trailing her 47-20 but was still the strongest Republican. Greater name rec will help that in the future for him.

LA politics is very regionally-oriented, so if Seabaugh gets in, he likely locks up a lot of northern Republicans.

At the moment, for Cassidy not to make the runoff, Maness would have to really consolidate tea partiers and social conservatives.

[windjammer]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

[RogueBeaver]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

Yeah, though Vitter will appoint the placeholder if he wins the Mansion. Curious to see which Pubs will run for the open seat.

[windjammer]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

Yeah, though Vitter will appoint the placeholder if he wins the Mansion. Curious to see which Pubs will run for the open seat.

Steve Calise maybe?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

Yeah, though Vitter will appoint the placeholder if he wins the Mansion. Curious to see which Pubs will run for the open seat.

Steve Calise maybe?

That's what I'm thinking too. Maybe Jeff Landry will run if he takes the 6th.

[Miles]

Thank you Miles.
I guess the 2016 LA senate election is probably open?

Yeah, though Vitter will appoint the placeholder if he wins the Mansion. Curious to see which Pubs will run for the open seat.

Steve Calise maybe?

Personally, I would like Scalise a lot. My grandparents have known his parents for years; its a small world in New Orleans. Scalise is good guy.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm another Scalise fan.

[Miles]

I'd like Landrieu/Scalise because they would be a Catholic, New Orleans-centric delegation that, holsitically, would represent the state's ideology well.

They already have a good working relationship. Landrieu and Vitter kinda hate eachother XD

[windjammer]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/after-the-shutdown-republicans-sort-through-the-wreckage/

LA and NC now lean D for Sabato!

[RogueBeaver]

Miles gets his wish: SCF endorses Maness in LA-Sen.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

How much money did Miles have to pay him for that?

But srsly, how did this take so long for NC? I'm thinking it's premature to call LA a lean (maybe with Maness it is), but I'm not complaining.

[windjammer]

I'd like Landrieu/Scalise because they would be a Catholic, New Orleans-centric delegation that, holsitically, would represent the state's ideology well.

They already have a good working relationship. Landrieu and Vitter kinda hate eachother XD

Some clash?

[RogueBeaver]

Add Jindal to the mix too, he has a mutually poisonous relationship with both senators. As for Sabato calling LA-Sen Lean D, I'd agree that's a tad premature.

[morgieb]

I'm not liking the Pubbies chances in Lousiana. They probably need a runoff where turnout/nationalisation will be easier.

[RogueBeaver]

We all agree that a runoff is necessary for a Pub win. For now the question is whether Landrieu can hit 50 in the jungle, but way too early to know that. The easiest way to fully nationalize is making Landrieu 51 by winning +5 in November and LA being the deciding vote, which wasn't the case in 2002.

[Miles]

Great news on the Maness endorsement.

At this rate, they should be supporting Brannon in NC soon.

[RogueBeaver]

AFP going on air against Landrieu and Hagan.