LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Over Obamacare? No kidding...

[RogueBeaver]

Rothenberg thinks Cassidy's being underestimated.

[windjammer]

Cassidy is useless. An another Romney on health care. Maybe he's being underestimated, but some people are underestimating Landrieu too.

[RogueBeaver]

Who's underestimating Landrieu? Cassidy's problem for now is base enthusiasm, not money. I think he'll get it by next summer. He 's solid- not perfect from my POV, but solid. Unrealistic to hope for a star, much less superstar, in every race.

[Miles]

Who's going to take the lead in fixing Obamacare? Mary, of course:

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Very good point:

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[windjammer]

1) Rothenberg
Considering this race as a "pure toss up" (and not even tilt dem) is clearly premature. Even if Cassidy is strong, he has to prove that! So this race should be rated "lean democratic" or "tilt democratic" like Cook did, with an important probability to change this rating!

2) The run-off
Again, some people underestimate her prospect of victory. I agree with you that if LA is the decisive state, she would be in trouble. But except this scenario, a run-off won't according to me hurt her.
I suppose in the USA or in Canada, run-off aren't a tradition, but I can tell you in the 2nd round, the 1st candidate gets a boost.
Here are some example:
a) 1995 French Presidential election:
1st round: Leftwing parties: 41% Rightwing parties: 59%
But Jospin got 47.5%.

b) And in Louisiana:
2002 senate race: 1st rounds: Pubs: 51% Dem: 48% (1st candidate: Landrieu)
And 2nd round: Landrieu got 51.5% of the vote.
2003 gubernational senate race: Pubs: 39% Dems: 61% (Best performance: Jindal)
And Bianco was just elected with 52% of the vote.



The runoff always gave a boost for the candidate who made the best performance. That's why the UMP wanted to have just one rightwing list in 2010 for the "Régionales" because they wanted to have the boost.
So except if LA is the decisive state, some people on this forum underestimate her chances of being reelected if there would be a runoff. She wouldn't lose votes with a "lower black turnout", she would win with a comfortable margin, (and weaker Cassidy's performance would be, better would be her score in a run off). So if there's  a runoff, except in case of LA=decisive state, this runoff wouldn't be closed if Landrieu leads Cassidy in the first round by a big margin, she would probably be comfortably reelected with this margin: 54-46.

[Miles]

Hopefully, we'll have more somewhat competitive House races in LA next year. Word on the street is that Democrats are stepping up recruiting efforts in northern LA. They could retry for CD5 or, probably better, go for CD4.

Mary will have to be competitive in both to win statewide, so she would help. In 2008, the districts were pretty much mirror opposites; she carried CD4 51-47 but lost CD5 by the same margin.

It would be nice to compete in this seats, but I certainly wouldn't give them the same weight as the Senate race:

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[Miles]

Holy cow! One of Walter Jones' primary opponents, army vet Jason Thigpen, just switched parties. He cited the Congressional Republicans' 'hate' and 'division':

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A few months ago, (very much to his credit, IMO) Thigpen blasted the voter ID bill.

The irony is that his libertarian-ish philosophy is similar to Jones', who himself was a party switcher.

[windjammer]

I likes Jones though .

[RogueBeaver]

Pinsonat thinks Landrieu's swimming upstream, but some Pubs are worried about SCF. I think a runoff is a better strategy myself. Maybe if Angelle had been the candidate I'd say a jungle-only one... but even then difficult considering Landrieu's high jungle floor.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I likes Jones though .

I thought you hated libertarians.

[Morning in Atlas]

I likes Jones though .

So do I. Thigpen won't do much against him though.

[Miles]

Well, some good news for Republicans in LA. Seabaugh is bowing out and endorsing Cassidy:

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[windjammer]

I likes Jones though .

I thought you hated libertarians.

Yes obviously, I hate them. But him, it's different. He was one of the least conservative republican in the last congress. So, lesser evil when you look at this district?

But I continue to hate libertarians, don't worry about that .

[RogueBeaver]

Cassidy was a Dem before entering politics, but says he's admitted he was wrong then, unlike Landrieu. Not surprising given his background and generation, as I told Miles a while ago. Nor should it be a BFD.

[Miles]

I wasn't about to post that.

Anyway, he sounded like I pretty loyal Democrat at that:

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Cassidy was a Dem before entering politics, but says he's admitted he was wrong then, unlike Landrieu. Not surprising given his background and generation, as I told Miles a while ago. Nor should it be a BFD.

Whats wrong with Landrieu!?

This also makes him look like a jerk in his announcement video when he says that "Mary's nice, buts he's changed." She hasn't changed any more than this guy has over the years!.

[Miles]

[Miles]

One of my fellow Tigers is taking the plunge for LA-06.

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Maybe I can get an interview or something from this guy.

[RogueBeaver]

So he'll be the third Pub in the 6th. Seems like a fairly quiet campaign for now.

[Miles]

So he'll be the third Pub in the 6th. Seems like a fairly quiet campaign for now.

Yeah, I really am surprised that no bigger names have gotten in. I suppose there's still time though.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd also guess Dietzel's the frontrunner. A guy who could go places, if he wanted.

[illegaloperation]

Get ready for 2014 NC Republicans!

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/11/04/3341022/teachers-hold-walk-in-events-protesting.html

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It reminds me of Chaffetz who had worked on the Dukakis campaign, but was basically running the equivalent of a tea party primary challenge in 2008.

[Miles]

Just. No.

Democrats need to make sure Maness stays a viable alternative to Cassidy; he's making that harder when he says stupid stuff like this:

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[windjammer]

I would love to see Maness destroying Cassidy's campaign