LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

As Democrats try to nibble away at the Republican's supermajorities in the NCGA, here are the top 5 State Senate races to watch:

SD1: The outer banks seat that Republican Bill Cook won by 32 votes last year. His predecessor Stan White (D) is running again. Its trending R, but there's still a decent amount of ballot-splitting here, e.g Obama lost by 12 but in the 50/50 LG race, Forest only won by 4.

SD9: Thom Goolsby, who represents the slightly-R New Hanover seat has towed the partisan line on everything. PPP showed Goolsby in surprisingly poor shape.

SD19: This the Cumberland County seat; even though most black voters in Fayetteville were sucked into the jellyfish-like SD21, this is the only Obama seat that a Republican holds. Sophomore Welsey Meridth got 54% in 2012, but outspent his opponent more than 10 to 1.


SD25: This is the only seat that Republicans have a chance of flipping. Blue Doggish Gene McLaurin won this 57% Romney seat 53-47 in 2012. McLaurin is a businessman and was mayor of Rockingham in Richmond County for 8 terms. He considerably ahead of Obama and Kissell in the district's southern counties.

SD50: This the mountain seat at the very western tip of the state. It was the closest race in 2010, as Jim Davis (R) ousted John Snow (D) by 199 votes. In 2012, Snow attempted a comeback but the western part of the state swung hard against Obama, dragging him down to 43%. As I've said before, Hayden Rogers would be a good recruit for Democrats here.

[JacobNC]

Didn't Hayden Rogers take a job on Joe Manchin's staff?

[Miles]

Didn't Hayden Rogers take a job on Joe Manchin's staff?

Ugh, well there goes that...

[Miles]

Bernie Pinsonat, who works ith SMOR, did an interview and talked about the LA poll they put out a few weeks ago.

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'A harsh analysis to take in for those on Team Mary.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Reminds me of the position Romney was in back in 2008. Romney could win IA and NH, but only so long as Fred/Huck/Sam stayed in the hunt in IA and both Rudy/McCain stayed in NH. Of course that didn't happen and Romney lost both states after Huck rallied the socons and Rudy embraced his FL plan.

That said, I am not that certain her fate is quite as much in other people's hands as that scenario.  I do agree with the narrative (shocking, a media narrative is right for once). She really should not have voted for the immigration bill and neither should have Pryor. They gained nothing from having 68 instead of 66 and it would give them a chance to prove their independence. Now you got double instances of "Every Democrat voted X and You Would Have Wanted Y" (Triple if you include the stimulus, thouh I don't think that has as much pull now asi t is less current).

[windjammer]

Reminds me of the position Romney was in back in 2008. Romney could win IA and NH, but only so long as Fred/Huck/Sam stayed in the hunt in IA and both Rudy/McCain stayed in NH. Of course that didn't happen and Romney lost both states after Huck rallied the socons and Rudy embraced his FL plan.

That said, I am not that certain her fate is quite as much in other people's hands as that scenario.  I do agree with the narrative (shocking, a media narrative is right for once). She really should not have voted for the immigration bill and neither should have Pryor. They gained nothing from having 68 instead of 66 and it would give them a chance to prove their independence. Now you got double instances of "Every Democrat voted X and You Would Have Wanted Y" (Triple if you include the stimulus, thouh I don't think that has as much pull now asi t is less current).

Immigration reform was a bipartisan law, and according to polls, supported heavily by us population. So I don't see how it could hurt.

[RogueBeaver]

Immigration or any other specific vote is a symptom, not the cause, as Pinsonat points out.

[publicunofficial]

Reminds me of the position Romney was in back in 2008. Romney could win IA and NH, but only so long as Fred/Huck/Sam stayed in the hunt in IA and both Rudy/McCain stayed in NH. Of course that didn't happen and Romney lost both states after Huck rallied the socons and Rudy embraced his FL plan.

That said, I am not that certain her fate is quite as much in other people's hands as that scenario.  I do agree with the narrative (shocking, a media narrative is right for once). She really should not have voted for the immigration bill and neither should have Pryor. They gained nothing from having 68 instead of 66 and it would give them a chance to prove their independence. Now you got double instances of "Every Democrat voted X and You Would Have Wanted Y" (Triple if you include the stimulus, though I don't think that has as much pull now asi t is less current).

[Miles]

Sen. Dan Claitor (R-Baton Rouge) is running in CD6!

Endorsed.

I'm supporting Claitor because he's been a great advocate for LSU in legislature and he's done good work EBR parish in general.

Obviously, I wouldn't expect him to be Susan Collins, but he's been one of the less-partisan legislators:

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Also:

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[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Reminds me of the position Romney was in back in 2008. Romney could win IA and NH, but only so long as Fred/Huck/Sam stayed in the hunt in IA and both Rudy/McCain stayed in NH. Of course that didn't happen and Romney lost both states after Huck rallied the socons and Rudy embraced his FL plan.

That said, I am not that certain her fate is quite as much in other people's hands as that scenario.  I do agree with the narrative (shocking, a media narrative is right for once). She really should not have voted for the immigration bill and neither should have Pryor. They gained nothing from having 68 instead of 66 and it would give them a chance to prove their independence. Now you got double instances of "Every Democrat voted X and You Would Have Wanted Y" (Triple if you include the stimulus, though I don't think that has as much pull now asi t is less current).

Impossible. I was not on the site at all during the third of December as I recall. I am also pretty sure that I was not on here Sunday if I recall correctly. So how in the hell could I go zero days without mentioned the issue when I was not even on the site two of the last five days?

It is also pretty difficult for that to be the case considering all the days I come on, update the Atlasian Senate and then get right back off again. That said, I probably have in the last week or two, mentioned it every day that I was on because for once I have had more time to actually post in somewheres other than in the Atlasia boards, so I suppose I am making up for the period in SEptember and October when my available time was severely constrained.

I am shocked, SHOCKED to learn that people are emphasizing their key issues when it comes to discussing politics on an election site. And I have always gone against the crowd, so while everyone else is falling of themselves on Obamacare, I will provide some diversity to the discussion.

Reminds me of the position Romney was in back in 2008. Romney could win IA and NH, but only so long as Fred/Huck/Sam stayed in the hunt in IA and both Rudy/McCain stayed in NH. Of course that didn't happen and Romney lost both states after Huck rallied the socons and Rudy embraced his FL plan.

That said, I am not that certain her fate is quite as much in other people's hands as that scenario.  I do agree with the narrative (shocking, a media narrative is right for once). She really should not have voted for the immigration bill and neither should have Pryor. They gained nothing from having 68 instead of 66 and it would give them a chance to prove their independence. Now you got double instances of "Every Democrat voted X and You Would Have Wanted Y" (Triple if you include the stimulus, thouh I don't think that has as much pull now asi t is less current).

Immigration reform was a bipartisan law, and according to polls, supported heavily by us population. So I don't see how it could hurt.

I would imagine the numbers in LA and AR are not so favorable and even if the toplines are approve, the numbers natiownide show a divide on some of the specific components and I imagine opposition to those components would higher in states like this.

Also, as I have pointed out several times, the lopsided numbers are a product of the lack of a equal media presence for the opposition and thus the numbers for the bill are high especailly sicne the enforcement aspects were emphasized aggressively by advertisements on Conservative media outlets. Most people dont' know wht is in and a drive by primary or late general election campaign could easily score by emphasizing the less popular parts of the bill. The voters who tossed out Republicans in primaries solely or partially over this issue (Lugar, Davis, Cannon, Bennett, etc) are still there. It also doesn't seem like McIntyre and Barrow seem to keen on follow the Senator's lead at present. Why is that?

Anyway the point is not immigration specifically but the number of times on a big major issues where they have sided with Reid, against the wishes of their states. Even if a majority of AR or LA voters support it, they don't do so forcefully enough to punish thme over it if they said no and would have appreciated the illustration of independence.

[Miles]

The Democratic Senate Majority PAC has a decent $736K ad buy which praises Hagan and criticizes Tillis.

[Miles]

ALEC has done pretty well in NC under Tillis' tenure:

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[smoltchanov]

ALEC has done pretty well in NC under Tillis' tenure:

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Any Democrats among 54?

[Miles]

Any Democrats among 54?

As of late 2011 there were 3 at least somewhat affiliated with it. Brisson is the only one who's still in office

[smoltchanov]

Any Democrats among 54?

As of late 2011 there were 3 at least somewhat affiliated with it. Brisson is the only one who's still in office

AFAIK - he is the most conservative of present democratic legislators in NC. Am i correct?

[Miles]

AFAIK - he is the most conservative of present democratic legislators in NC. Am i correct?

Yeah, both socially and fiscally.

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK - he is the most conservative of present democratic legislators in NC. Am i correct?

Yeah, both socially and fiscally.

Thanks! Even more then McLaurin?

[Miles]

Thanks! Even more then McLaurin?

Well, as far as the House goes.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! Even more then McLaurin?

Well, as far as the House goes.

More thanks! You know i am keenly interested in "non-standard" politicians in BOTH parties. In Democratic that usually means "conservative", in Republican - "as liberal as possible"

[Miles]

I made these a while ago and forgot to post them! Anyway, here maps comparing Hagan's 2008 performance to a few other state races:

Hagan 08 vs Obama 08



One of the themes throughout these maps is that, for some reason, Dole overperformed around the upper Outer Banks. My guess is that since Bowles performed well for a Democrat there in 2002, the area would have naturally swung back to dole a bit.

Dole overperformed McCain around the Triangle, which I guess really isn't surprising.

Otherwise, Hagan overperforms Obama in the normal areas, like the southeast; she's from Cleveland County, so that may explain the darker shades of red in that area.

Hagan 08 vs Obama 12



This is basically a Presidential swing map from 2008 to 2012. Obama performed worse in the counties that get redder while the counties that get lighter red (compared to the original map) swung to him (mostly around NC-01).

Hagan 09 vs Coleman 12



I like using the almost-exactly 50/50 2012 LG race as a starting point for looking at really any NC statewide race.

Coleman overperforms Hagan noticeably in the northeast; Coleman was (is) black, so that probably explains this.

The other thing that sticks out is Robeson County. From what I gather, Liddy Dole actually had pretty good relations with the Lumbee and performed well for a Republican there. Dole limited Hagan to 59% of Robeson while, even in 2012, the Democratic average of the county was 68%.

As it stands, there will likely only be a few counties that swing to Hagan in 2014, but Robeson will almost definitely be one of them.

Finally, this one really isn't as relevant, as I did it just for fun: Hagan 08 vs Perdue 08

[Miles]

A good point on Obamacare:

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[RogueBeaver]

100% correct.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT looks at the troika.

[Miles]

This NC-06 primary is getting more crowded than I thought. Greensboro councilman Zach Matheny is running. Matheny was reelected a few months ago with 71%, though his seat looks like its mostly Republican areas of Greensboro.

[Miles]

Mary has her first ad out which is centered around her Obamacare fix.