Brazil Elections 2010

[RodPresident]

Now, I'm going to Great Rally to Bahia Keeps Going Forward, with most popular democratic leader in history, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, governor Jaques Wagner, future senators Walter Pinheiro 130 and Lídice da Mata 400 and first woman to be elected President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff 13!

[Hash]

Boring election in sight, yeah.

At any rate, it's more a reflection of how madly popular Lula is in Brazil, and, unlike in 2006, his popularity clearly breaks class lines (though faint, very faint, outlines of class can and will be seen in the results). It also doesn't help the opposition that they nominated a rather stale uncharismatic moderately-popular old-timer associated with FHC to oppose the anointed candidate of the most popular head of state of Brazil since 1821.

In Colombia, there was a chance that a well-liked, charismatic and flamboyant guy could be able to win building a coalition of opponents and supporters of the incumbent with a post-Uribist message; but Lula has been far more successful (especially in his second term) than Uribe has and the only guy who could've have ran a successful campaign on a post-incumbent message isn't running.

The whole thing of "president x has been excellent, great; so we'll vote for whoever he endorses because he/she must be just as wonderful!" is stupid and retarded, but I digress. It's not like it matters who of Dilma and Serra wins, they're practically one and the same on every issue save privatizations/government intervention and foreign policy.

[Hash]

Ibope polls (Aug 18-20) for the only interesting races left

MG-Senate
Aecio 69%
Itamar Franco 43%
Pimentel (PT) 19%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 2%
undecided 30%
cites 1 23%
blank/null 8%

AL-Senate
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) 44%
Renan Calheiros (PMDB) 42%
Benedito de Lira (PP) 28%
Ze Costa (PPS) 2%
Álvaro Vasconcelos (PTB) 2%
Eduardo Bonfim (PCdoB) 2%
Paulo Nunes (PRTB) 2%
undecided 40%
cites 1 20%
blank/null 11%

MG-Governor
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 38%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) 27%
3 others 3%
undecided 32%

AL-Governor
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT) 29%
Fernando Sexgod Collor (PTB) 28%
Teotonio Vilela (PSDB) 24%
3 others 3%
undecided 16%

[RodPresident]

Yesterday, I went to Great Rally for Bahia Keeps Going Forward, with the Three Brothers of Faith, Lula, Dilma e Wagner, in Castro Alves. In rally, there were many leaderships, ministers and candidates, including members from another parties, like Minister of Health, Temporão (PMDB), Minister of Culture Juca Ferreira (PV) and Minister of Transports, Paulo Passos (PR). First to speak was the next Lieutenant Governor Otto Alencar (PP) that saluted our president. Future senator Walter Pinheiro 130 (PT) showed the great work for education made by our government, while opposition attacked scholarship program (Prouni) by government. He cited that we need to select a good team to Congress to help Dilma and Wagner to govern, comparing with Seleção failure, citing that a electoral victory is most important. Future senator Lídice da Mata 400 (PSB) responded to attacks made by senator César Borges (PR) that said that she and Pinheiro were using Lula as crutches to their campaigns, saying that "We are proud to use these crutches". She also remembered persecution suffered during her term as mayor of Salvador, by Antônio Carlos Magalhães, while former carlist Otto was with a grin. Governor Wagner cited problem of commercial beach huts, requiring a solution by president Lula, while crowd was booing mayor João Henrique Carneiro (PMDB), linked to Wagner's opponent Geddel (PMDB). Governor compared Lula with heroes like Tiradentes and Zumbi of Palmares. Dilma said that she will care for Brazilian people like a mother and that Wagner is doing a great administration, with programs like "My House, My Life" being well executed. She remembered Castro Alves' verses, saying that Lula freed people to fly and dream. She said that she hasn't right of fail.Last speaker was President Lula, that was saluted as "Warrior of the Brazilian people". President Lula saluted governor Wagner as "future reelected Governor of Bahia" and that Governor is like a brother to him. He said that if weren't for her wife, Mrs. Marisa Letícia, he would give his sons to be cared by Dilma. He attacked persons who say that a woman is unprepared to rule Brazil, saying that is agression to mothers who bear a child for nine months. He made many jokes, saying that he'll help beach huters because he can go to drink a beer after he leaves Presidency and said that "Dilma has a immense luck that she will win her first election".
Rally had many interesting moments, with militancy shaking flags. One of most saluted persons was a construction worker that become symbol of employment generation in Bahia. Minister of Institutional Affairs, Alexandre Padilha, danced campaign jingle with First Lady of Bahia, Fátima Mendonça. I also met very nice people, like Minister of Culture, Juca Ferreira, and CEO of Petrobras, Sérgio Gabrielli. But best moment was when Dilma sent kisses to me and I kissed her after rally.

[Hash]

I think the PT is going a tad over the top now, but when you have such a lead and when such a lead is likely unassailable, you can act ridiculous.

[Tender Branson]

Brazil's Rousseff could win in first round: poll



(Reuters) - Brazilian ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff opened a 24-percentage point lead over her main presidential rival in an opinion poll on Saturday, staying on course win the October 3 election in the first round.

Career civil servant Rousseff has 51 percent support, against former Sao Paulo state governor Jose Serra's 27 percent, according to an Ibope survey published in O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper.

Rousseff, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's former chief of staff, has overtaken Serra in his home state of Sao Paulo, which has the country's largest electorate. She leads there 42 percent to 35 percent, the poll showed.

She has doubled her overall margin on Serra since the previous Ibope poll published on August 16, when she led 43 percent to 32 percent. She has taken a clear lead in three other polls as well.

Rapid economic growth this year and promises to continue with the policies of Lula, the most popular Brazilian president in recent decades, have helped increase Rousseff's ratings.

But her lead over Serra got a further boost since the campaign slots started on television this month that have linked her closely with Lula, bringing a first-round victory on October 3 with more than 50 percent of votes within reach.

The ads have given many voters their first in-depth look at Rousseff, who was little known by the Brazilian public only a couple of months ago. She trailed Serra in the polls as recently as June.

Saturday's poll showed her getting 59 percent of valid votes once spoiled and blank ballots are discarded, as they are on election day.

In Minas Gerais, considered a vital "swing" state and home to the country's second largest electorate, Rousseff leads Serra by 51 percent to 25 percent, the poll showed.

Support for former Environment Minister Marina Silva, the candidate for the Green party, fell to 7 percent from 8 percent in the previous survey.

Neither Rousseff nor Serra is seen breaking with mostly market-friendly policies that have brought Brazil economic stability and made it an investors' favorite.

But both favor a strong government hand in the economy, and Rousseff wants to further strengthen state companies in the oil, energy and banking industries.

Ibope interviewed 2,506 people for the poll which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67R0TW20100828

[RodPresident]

New polls from Brazil:
Datafolha, 23-24, gubernatorial elections
SP:
Alckmin (PSDB-governing): 54%
Mercadante (PT): 20%
Russomano: 7%
Skaf: 3%
Feldmann (PV), Búfalo (PSTU) and Mancha (PSTU): 1%
MG:
Hélio (PMDB): 43%
Anastasia (PSDB-inc): 29%
Vanessa (PSTU), Zé Fernando (PV), Fabinho (PCB), Luiz Carlos (PSOL) and Edilson Nascimento: 1%
RJ:
Cabral (PMDB-inc): 56%
Gabeira (PV right-wing): 17%
Eduardo Serra (PCB), Cyro Garcia (PSTU) and Fernando Peregrino (PR pro-Garotinho): 2%
Jefferson Moura (PSOL): 1%
BA:
Wagner (PT-inc): 47%
Paulo Souto (DEM): 23%
Geddel, Minister of Pork (PMDB): 11%
Bassuma (PV), Sandro (PCB) and Prof. Carlos (PSTU): 1%
RS:
Tarso (PT): 38%
Fogaça (PMDB right-wing): 27%
Corrupt Yeda (PSDB-inc): 16%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL), Júlio Flores (PSTU) and Schneider (PMN): 1%
PE:
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc): 67%
MaharaJarbas (PMDB): 19%
PR:
Beto Richa (PSDB): 47%
Osmar Dias (PDT): 34%
DF:
Gael's friend (PSC): 41%
Agnelo (PT): 35%
Toninho (PSOL): 3%
Frank (PCB): 1%

[RodPresident]

Senatorial poll, Datafolha, 24-25, only electabe:
SP:
Marta (PT): 32%
CorruptQuércia (PMDB right-wing): 26%
Mano Netinho de Paula (PC do B): 25%
Romeu Tuma (PTB-inc): 24%
Ciro Moura (PTC): 13%
Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (PSDB): 9%
Moacyr "Gay Hilbilly" Franco: 7%
RJ:
Uncle's guy Crivella (PRB-inc): 37%
César Booing Maia (DEM): 32%
Lindberg Farias (PT): 24%
Picciani Slaver owner (PMDB): 16%
Waguinho (PT do B): 7%
Milton Temer (PSOL): 5%
Marcelo Cerqueira FHC's friend (PPS): 4%
MG:
Aécio Never (PMDB): 70%
Itamar (PPS): 44%
Fernando Pimentel (PT): 25%
BA:
César Borges (PR-inc): 31%
Lídice (PSB): 22%
Pinheiro (PT): 21%
José Ronaldo (DEM): 11%
Edvaldo "Maluf's secretary"(PTB):7%
Aleluia (DEMagogue that wants to creat a project to eject politicians that not fulfill their campaign promises): 6%
RS:
Ana Amélia (PP right-wing): 44%
Rigotto (PMDB): 42%
Paim (PT-inc): 38%
PE:
Humberto Costa (PT): 44%
Marco Maciel (DEM-inc): 33%
Armando Monteiro (PTB pro-Lula): 29%
Raul Jungmann: 11%
PR:
Crazy Requião (PMDB): 48%
Gleisi (PT): 37%
Ricardo Barros (PP right-wing): 16%
Gustavo Fruet (PSDB): 16%
DF:
Cristovam Buarque (PDT-inc): 45%
Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB): 30%
Maria Abadia (PSDB): 27%
Alberto "Arruda's friend" Fraga: 11%
CE (Aug 24-25)
Tasso "I have a jet because I can" Jereissati (PSDB): 52%
Eunício "Son-in-law of Mombaça's guy" Oliveira (PMDB): 31%
José Pimentel (PT): 27%

[RodPresident]

http://noticias.terra.com.br/eleicoes/2010/pesquisas/0,,EI15314,00.html
More poll information. Now, in Ibope, Gael's friend is in draw with Agnelo Queiroz.
Many notable splits:
Almir Gabriel with his 2002-handpicked sucessor Simão Jatene. Now, former governor of Pará made an alliance with his longtime rival, Jader Barbalho.
Sérgio Guerra, President of PSDB, is split with Senator Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB). Many mayors of Pernambuco's PSDB are supporting Governor Eduardo Campos (PSB).
In PMDB-SC, former governor of Santa Catarina, Paulo Afonso, is supporting Dilma, while former governor Luiz Henrique da Silveira is with Serra.
In PMDB-MS, incumbent Senator Valter Pereira declared his support for PT's ticket with Zeca do PT for governorship and Dagoberto (PDT) with Delcídio (PT) for Senate. He accuses truculent governor Puccinelli (PMDB pro-Serra, famous because his promise to rape Minister of Enviroment if he went to a ecological marathon in state) of supporting Deputy Waldemir Moka in PMDB senatorial primary.
In Bahia, many mayors from DEM and PSDB are supporting Governor Wagner, like in cities of Jeremoabo, Alagoinhas and Brumado.

[Niemeyerite]

From BH, Minas Gerais, I'll support:

Governor: Helio Costa
Senator: Aecio Neves
Senator: Fernando Pimentel
President: Plinio de ArrudA Sampaio (first round), Dilma Rouseff (second round, if it happens)
Federal deputy: Luis Tibe

[RodPresident]

How Brazilian people's unpoliticized: Police put a fake candidate in Heliópolis, largest favela in São Paulo and caught 25 bandits involved in narcotraffic. Candidate was named Cosme da Vila and his number was 70.171, for PLM (In Brazilian politics, 70 is party number of PT do B and 171 is article number in Brazilian Penal Code for fraud).

[RodPresident]

TSE barred former Governor Joaquim Roriz (PSC) from running to Gubernatorial election in Federal District by 6-1 vote. Now, he can appeal only to Federal Supreme Court. Favourite replacements are his daughter, State Deputy Jacqueline Roriz (PMN) that is running for Chamber of Deputies or former Governor Maria de Lourdes Abadia (PSDB) that is running for Senate.

[RodPresident]

Federal Deputy Jader Barbalho had his bid to return to Senate barred by TSE. Member of PSDB, he was vetoed because his resignation in 2001, because scandals in Superintendency of Development for Amazon (Sudam). Daddys'girl, Rose"ng"ana Sarney was allowed to run for "reelection" in Maranhão.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Maybe that's a bit OOC, but wasn't Itamar supporting Lula in 2002? Why is he now supporting Serra (and the other guy in 2006)?

[Hash]

Maybe that's a bit OOC, but wasn't Itamar supporting Lula in 2002? Why is he now supporting Serra (and the other guy in 2006)?

Itamar publicly said that he found Lula too arrogant and haughty or something along those lines.

[RodPresident]

There are many motives. Firstly, Itamar tried to be candidate of PMDB after Garotinho's scandals in 2006, but he was vetoed. After this, Itamar desired to support Aécio in 2006 elections but was barred in Convention by a pro-PT wing linked to former Governor Newton Cardoso. Itamar is a 'problematic' guy.
News: In Dourados (MS), Mayor Ari Artuzi (PDT), his Lieutenant Mayor, First Lady, 9 of 12 town councillors, 4 City Secretaries are jailed because frauds in public procurements and bribes.

[RodPresident]

Vox Populi tracking, Sept 2nd
Dilma (PT): 51%
Serra (PSDB): 25%
Marina (PV): 9%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Sorry for OOC again, but there's an ultimate proof you shouldn't mess with Collor:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iakQra5vq9g

I had to post it.

[Niemeyerite]

Itamar is a good man, the only problem is that he is an idiot. he is supporting serra becausehe wants the support of aecio, who has a 70% approval rating in the state. he thought that with the support of aecio, he was a shoe in for the senate. and polls indicate that pimentel is going up while itamar is keeping his 44%. I think he will finally win, but I have serious doubts xD.

on the other side, anastasia is fighting hard for the governorship. and IMO, he will win. I support costa, but anastasia will make a good governor too. probably better than costa, but I tend to support helio because he is running as a leftist candidate, and I like A LOT patrus Ananias, his VG choice.

[RodPresident]

If Célio de Castro hadn't suffered a stroke, he would be governor in 2002 with Itamar's support. Itamar only supported Aécio in 2002, because in early polls he was only guy able to defeat Newton Cardoso, his old foe. In final result, Newtão had only less of 7%, while Nilmário Miranda had 30% into Lula's wave.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Serra is also a bad campaigner and Aecio would be a better candidate than him.

Why did Aecio skipped 2010 bid?

[Hash]

Serra is also a bad campaigner and Aecio would be a better candidate than him.

Why did Aecio skipped 2010 bid?

He likely understood that even him winning in a year like 2010 would be extremely hard, and he preferred to run for something which he would win with 99.99% certainty (Senate). It's also why he declined to be Serra's running-mate, like most tucanos had hoped.

[Niemeyerite]

Serra is also a bad campaigner and Aecio would be a better candidate than him.

Why did Aecio skipped 2010 bid?

Because he knows he can't win a presidential election against the Lula candidate. Aecio will never run for president because he doesn't like loosing. and, serra is more well-known and had the support of the PSDB. but aecio would have made the election closer than serra, at least he would have kept minas gerais. aecio is a great politician, I like him, and I don't know why he is in the PSDB.

and if itamar is elected, wait only one year to see him supporting president dilma. and if marina silva is elected (it's only an example, that's impossible) he would support her, too.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

and if itamar is elected, wait only one year to see him supporting president dilma. and if marina silva is elected (it's only an example, that's impossible) he would support her, too.

Well, I guess every President can also count on Sarney support, as usual

[Niemeyerite]

and if itamar is elected, wait only one year to see him supporting president dilma. and if marina silva is elected (it's only an example, that's impossible) he would support her, too.

Well, I guess every President can also count on Sarney support, as usual

You are right. PMDB always supports the incumbent president. and sarney is the worst politician in that "party". but the worst brazilian party is the PP, by far. that fascist party that supports (and I don't know how) Lula.

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It seems like Dilma will win EVERY STATE. even conservative santa catarina, paraná, rio grande do sul and roraima. sao paula is gone for serra, and also mato grosso do sul, a southern conservative state. the election is over, dilma will win. at least, serra has to keep rio grande do sul (and dilma is up by 7 points here), santa catarina (where dilma is up 3 or 5 points), paraná (where dilma is up by high single-digits). the only state where serra is leading in polls is acre, and only by 2% points. but he knows he won't win there, because acre is a safe PT state and the only reason for his lead is that marina silva is from here, and she is splitting the PT vote with dilma. but finally, acreans will vote for dilma here, IMO.