Brazil Elections 2010

[RodPresident]

We have the nominees to Brazilian General Elections. The tickets for Presidency of the Republic are:
PT/PMDB/PR/PDT/PSB/PC do B/PSC/PTC/PRB (centre-left)
President: Dilma Rousseff (PT-RS)
Vice-President: Michel Temer (PMDB-SP)
PSDB/DEM/PTB/PPS/PT do B (centre-right)
President: José Serra (PSDB-SP)
Vice-President: Indio da Costa (DEM-RJ)
PV (enviromentalist)
President: Marina Silva (PV-AC)
Guilherme Leal (PV-SP)
P-SOL (left-wing)
President: Plínio de Arruda Sampaio (P-SOL-SP)
Vice-president: Hamilton de Assis (P-SOL-BA)
PCB (orthodox communist)
President: Ivan Pinheiro (PCB-RJ)
PSL (libertarian)
President: Américo de Souza (PSL-MA)
PSDC (democratic-christian)
President: José Maria Eymael (PSDC-SP)
PRTB (populist)
President: Levy Fidelix (PRTB-SP)
PCO (ultra-far-left trotskist)
President: Ruy Costa Pimenta (PCO-SP)
PHS (humanist christian)
President: Oscar Silva (PHS-SP)
PSTU (far-left)
President: Zé (José) Maria (PSTU-MG)
Vice-president: Cláudia Durans (PSTU-MA)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Due to my lack of orientation, I'd probably just read this thread and learn more

[RodPresident]

Serra's running-mate is former son-in-law to jailed banker Salvatore Cacciola.

[Hash]

ftr, you can read more of my analysis here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106314.0

[RodPresident]

BAHIA ELECTIONS

Gubernatorial elections:
Jaques Wagner (incumbent) - For Bahia keeps going forward (Para a Bahia seguir em frente) - PT/PP/PSB/PDT/PC do B/PRB/PSL/PHS
Governor Wagner (PT) goes to reelection without support of PMDB that was very important in his victory against carlism in 2006, after a split in 2009 triggered by Salvador's municipal elections in 2008 when he supported Walter Pinheiro against "peemedebista" mayor João Henrique Barradas Carneiro (son of Senator João Durval Carneiro, PDT). Now, he's aligned with some former carlists that like to stay in power, regardless of who's there, like his running-mate, former Governor Otto Alencar (PP), that left his lifetime post in Audit Trial of State.
Paulo Souto - Bahia deserves more (A Bahia merece mais) - DEM/PSDB
Former governor tries to recover gubernatorial post after surprising defeat in 2006. This is the first statewide election after death of historic oligarch, senator Antônio Carlos Magalhães (ACM), that was main leader of PFL (now DEM) in Bahia. Many allies left carlist bloc, like PR (former PL) and PP, and for first time they make a coalition with PSDB, historic enemy of carlism, because main "tucano" leader in Bahia, Jutahy Jr., desires to help in election of his friend José Serra. His running-mate is the former Governor Nilo Coelho (PSDB), that already threw his car against a photographer of Magalhães clan newspaper. Future of bloc is very uncertain and difficult, like ACM Neto defeat in 1st round of Salvador elections showed.
Geddel Vieira Lima - A Bahia tem pressa (Bahia has hurry) - PMDB/PR/PTB/PPS/PSC/PTC/PMN/PSDC/PRTB/PT do B/PTN/PRP
Former Minister of National Integration and Federal Deputy, he was a staunch opponent of President Lula in his first term, but he made an aliance with PT against ACM in 2006 and became one of greatest allies to Lula in PMDB. His party received many politicians from carlism, attracted by ministerial funds, and build a strong force in little cities of state. He split with PT in 2009 and launched his candidacy that will be Dilma Rousseff's 2nd podium in state with Wagner. Many people accuses him of retain carlista style of making politics, authoritarian and that relies in threats. His running-mate is Lieutenant Governor Edmundo Pereira Santos (PMDB).
Luiz Bassuma - PV
Federal Deputy, he was suspended from PT because his pro-life positions, but opted to left party. He'll give a podium to Marina Silva presidential candidacy and his running-mate is Lillian Amorim, a physical disabled that keeps a refuge to abandoned cats.
Marcos Mendes - PSOL
A bank clerk, he replaces Hilton Coelho, that desires to become State Deputy.
Sandro Santa Bárbara - PCB
Carlos José Bispo do Nascimento - PSTU
http://www.tse.gov.br/internet/redirecionador/divulgaCand2010.htm - This site have candidates' informations.

[RodPresident]

Oscar Silva and Américo de Souza had their candidacies retired by their parties.

[RodPresident]

PTB is supporting Serra, but Collor (that's running for Alagoas governorship) is supporting Lula and Dilma. This is his jingle: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0ew2mCJRFg
Itamar is running to Senate, supporting Serra and Aécio in Minas, for PPS.
Many famous people are running in this election
Vampeta and Marcelinho Carioca are candidates for Federal Deputy in São Paulo, while Romário is in Rio. Boxer Acelino "Popó" Freitas is candidate for Federal Deputy in Bahia, while transexual dancer and city councillor of Salvador Leo Kret do Brasil is running for State Deputy.

[Hash]

Also in the theme of famous candidates we have the old crook who uses lobbyists' money to pay his illegitimate daughter, Mr. Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL); Roseana Sarney running for re-election in Maranhao (PMDB-MA) against the PDT's Jackson Lago (who defeated her in 2006 but was then invalidated for vote buying); Fernando Gabeira (PV-RJ) running for Governor of Rio with the PSDB-DEM's support; former Rio mayor Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ) running for Senate; gospel singer and evangelical bishop Marcello Crivella (PRB-RJ) running for re-election to the Senate. Less funny, but soy king Blairo Maggi (PR-MT) is running for Senate, and the TSE places his wealth at 86 million US dollars. ftr, LulaDilma supports Renan "the scumbag" Calheiros, Roseana "daddy's girl" Sarney, Marcello "Jerry Falwell" Crivella and Blairo "I own this country" Maggi.

But Anthony "Jesus Christ Jr." "I broke my own hunger strike" Garotinho can't run for Governor of RJ.

[Hash]

Finally finished! My guide to the elections: http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2010-brazilian-election/

Takes something like a week to read completely, though.

[RodPresident]

I want to congratulate you, dear Gael. I want to put some corrections:
*Edvaldo Brito, vice-mayor of Salvador and former bionic mayor, one of most famous tax lawyers in Brazil, is second candidate to Senate in Geddel, for PTB.
*Eymael is famous because his jingle "Ey,Ey,Eymael ... um democrata cristão"
*Levy Fidelix is known because his proposal of "Aerotrem", about a surface railway system.
*Alcides Rodrigues split with Perillo and it's very likely that he'll support Iris in run-off, if his candidate, Vanderlan Cardoso, not pass.
*Pagode singer Vaguinho is one of candidates to Senate in PR-PT do B ticket in Rio with Fernando Peregrino (a Garotinho replacement).
*PPS supported Lula only in 1994. In 1998, they ran with Ciro Gomes.
*Political free air time is apportioned by number of members in Chamber of Deputies.
*In MT election, PSB industrialist Mauro Mendes is supported by many allies of Senator Serys, that was defeated by Abicalil in PT primary.
*Armando Monteiro is in 3rd in Pernambuco senatorial election, but he's favourite. In 2002, Sérgio Guerra was in similar situation against Carlos Wilson, but he won election with Jarbas support.
*Wilma de Faria is former wife of former governor and state deputy Lavoisier Maia, that is José Agripino cousin.
*Many candidates are impugnated, but Justice'll rule if they can run.
*"Clean sheet" Law is also an important factor. Jackson Lago, Marcelo Miranda and Cássio Cunha Lima can be barred from running because this law.

[Хahar 🤔]

Finally finished! My guide to the elections: http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2010-brazilian-election/

Takes something like a week to read completely, though.

It only took me an hour.

[RodPresident]

New polls in Brazil
IBOPE (07/26-07/29)
Dilma: 39%
Serra: 34%
Marina: 7%
Others: 1%
Blank: 12%
Undecided: 12%
Spontaneous
Dilma: 27%
Serra: 19%
Marina: 4%
Lula: 2%
Others: 1%
Blank: 7%
Undecided: 39%
Rejection:
Serra: 24%
Dilma: 19%
Marina: 13%
Government approval:
Approval: 85%
Disapproval: 12%
No answer: 3%
Government rating
Superior: 30%
Good: 47%
Regular: 18%
Poor: 2%
Bad: 2%
No answer: 1%
Websites:
www.datafolha.com.br
www.voxpopuli.com.br
www.ibope.com.br

[Harry Hayfield]

I have access to record TV, will they be covering the election?

[RodPresident]

They're producing interviews with candidates in his news branch. Plínio, Zé Maria, Dilma, Marina and Serra were already interviewed. Search for "sabatina" in R7.com

[RodPresident]

Senator Collor de Mello threatens a journalist and called him "son of a b...":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc91N_RpqNs
"When I meet you, I'll put my hand in your face, your son of a b..."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He still has a career? Of course he does. Amazing.

[Hash]

He still has a career? Of course he does. Amazing.

The Brazilian Senate practically has seats set aside for crooks, convicted criminals and all those good guys.

[RodPresident]

Levy Fidelix attacks Serra because his opposition to high-speed railway between Campinas and São Paulo. He claims that Rodoanel (ring road that is being made by state governorship of São Paulo since Covas time) was his idea and that it was built by a cost higher than the true one. Communist candidate Ivan Pinheiro laments that PT doesn't assume its links with the Colombian guerrilla. He, that is General Secretary of PCB, visited a FARC camp last year. Serra's running-mate accused PT of links with Colombian guerrilla.

[RodPresident]

Regional electoral justice bars former governor Ivo Cassol (PP-RO) based in Clean Slate Act because vote buying in 2006 elections. He'll appeal to Superior Electoral Trial.
Ivan Pinheiro (PCB) reaffirms his endorsement to FARC.
Levy Fidelix (PRTB) says that "Global nuclear disarmament or we'll build bomb. He's against gay marriage and abortion.
JK's granddaughter, Anna Christina, wife of former Arruda's vice-governor has her candidacy to Acting Senator with Maria Abadia (PSDB-DF) barred by electoral justice.

[RodPresident]

Electoral register was refused to Joaquim Roriz (PSC-Federal District, running for Governorship) and Cássio Cunha Lima (PSDB-Paraíba, running for Senate) while Jader Barbalho (PMDB-Pará, running for Senate) and Jackson Lago (PDT-Maranhão, running for governorship) had their registers accepted.

[Hash]

Electoral register was refused to Joaquim Roriz (PSC-Federal District, running for Governorship)

I have much faith in Brazilian justice. More than I have faith in French or Canadian justice.

[RodPresident]

LIVE: http://www.band.com.br/
FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WITH:
JOSÉ SERRA-PSDB
DILMA ROUSSEFF-PT
MARINA SILVA-PV
PLÍNIO DE ARRUDA SAMPAIO: P-SOL

[RodPresident]

First presidential debate:
No personal attacks
Dilma wasn't so concise like her opponents.
Marina paid a tribute to a boy that she found at campaign with poetry.
Serra talked more about health, that was joked by Plínio. He said that government is perverse with mental disabled people.
Plínio was the franc-tireur of debate. He called Marina as "eco-capitalist" and said that he's only alternative to three main candidates. He promised to have a referendum limiting rural property to 1000 ha and to audit public debt.

[RodPresident]

New poll: National Confederation of Transport/Sensus (07/31-08/02)
Dilma: 41.6%
Serra: 31.6%
Marina: 8.5%
Zé Maria (PSTU): 1.9%
Plínio (P-Sol): 1.7%
Eymael (PSDC): 0.5%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 0.1%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0.1%
Blank: 3.4%
No answer: 10.9%
2nd Round
Dilma vs. Serra
Dilma: 48.3%
Serra: 36.6%
Dilma vs. Marina
Dilma: 55.7%
Marina: 23.3%
Serra vs. Marina
Serra: 50%
Marina: 27.8%
Rejection
Serra: 30.8%
Marina: 29.7%
Dilma: 25.3%
Error margin: +/- 2.2%

[Hash]

Part of the state-level IBOPE polls:

Paraná-GOV, IBOPE
Beto Richa (PSDB) 46%
Osmar Dias (PDT) 33%
all others <1%
blank-null 4%
undecided 16%

Bahia-GOV, IBOPE
Jaques Wagner (PT-inc) 46%
Paulo Souto (DEM) 19%
Geddel Vieira (PMDB) 11%
Carlos Nascimento (PSTU) 1%
blank-null 9%
undecided 14%

Bahia-SEN, IBOPE
César Borges (PR-inc) 38%
Lídice da Mata (PSB) 25%
Walter Pinheiro (PT) 23%
José Ronaldo (DEM) 10%
José Carlos Aleluia (DEM) 7%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB) 4%
all others 9%
cites only 1 candidate 16%
blank/null 19%
undecided 48%

MG-GOV, IBOPE
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 39%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) 21%
Vanessa Portugal (PSTU) 2%
all others 5%
undecided/null 33%

MG-SEN, IBOPE (multiple answers)
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 70%
Itamar Franco (PPS)   39%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 18%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 2%
cites only 1 candidate 25%
all others 7%
undecided 40%

Rio-GOV, IBOPE
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) 58%
Fernando Gabeira (PV) 14%
all others 4%
blank/null 12%
undecided 11%

Rio-SEN, IBOPE
Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc) 37%
Cesar Maia (DEM) 37%
Lindberg (PT) 21%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 11%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS) 7%
Milton Temer (PSOL) 4%
Waguinho (PTdoB) 4%
Carlos Dias (PTdoB) 2%
all others 2%
cites only 1 candidate 19%
blank/null 23%
undecided 32%

Pernambuco-GOV, IBOPE
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc) 60%
Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB) 24%
all others 2%
blank/null 5%
undecided 8%

Pernambuco-SEN, IBOPE
Humberto Costa (PT) 44%
Marco Maciel (DEM-inc) 43%
Armando Monteiro (PTB) 27%
Raul Jungmann (PPS) 12%
Hélio Cabral (PSTU) 2%
Renê Patriota (PV) 2%
Simone Fontana (PSTU) 2%
all others 1%
cites only 1 candidate 20%
blank/null 14%
undecided 32%

Paraiba and DF polls are useless since the top candidates in them both got rejected

Some older stuff, but still great:

Alagoas-SEN, Ibrape
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) 39%
Renan Calheiros (PMDB) 33%
Benedito de Lira (PP) 10%
Zé Costa (PPS) 2%
Eduardo Bonfim (PCdoB) 1%
all others <1%
blank/undecided 15%

Alagoas-GOV, Ibrape
Fernando Collor (PTB) 38%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT-PT) 26%
Teo Vilela (PSDB-inc) 21%
Mário Agra (PSOL) 1%

more info on polling at the state level: http://noticias.uol.com.br/fernandorodrigues/pesquisas/2010/1turno/senador.jhtm