Brazil Elections 2010

[Hash]

state-level presidential voting intentions, all by IBOPE:

The order is Dilma-Serra-Marina (date is last polling day)
Paraná (Aug 4): 35-46-7
Ceara (Aug 1): 57-23-7
Mato Grosso do Sul (Jul 31): 37-43-8
Sao Paulo (Jul 29): 33-44-9
Roraima (Jul 29): 37-42-8
Rondonia (Jul 29): 36-36-8
Rio (Jul 29): 46-27-10
Pernambuco (Jul 29): 59-26-5
Paraiba (Jul 29): 53-28-4
Minas Gerais (Jul 29): 44-32-7
DF (Jul 29): 36-25-16
Amazonas (Jul 29): 68-16-7
Amapa (Jul 29): 38-31-13
Acre (Jul 29): 17-38-32
Espírito Santo (Jul 25): 36-38-9
Santa Catarina (Jul 9): 39-46-7
Rio Grande do Sul (Jul 8): 37-46-6
Mato Grosso (Jun 13): 37-39-9

[RodPresident]

Senator Efraim Moraes is also in scandal. He's accused to have hired "phantom servants" to his Senatorial Office. In São Paulo, dispute, one of candidates in good position is singer Netinho de Paula (PC do B), that is councilman in São Paulo City. He was involved in domestic violence and already attacked journalists.

[Hash]

DF-Gov by Instituto Dados, Pesquisa, Opinião & Mercado
Roriz the Crook (PSC) 44%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 24%

My faith in humanity collapses.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Alagoas-GOV, Ibrape
Fernando Collor (PTB) 38%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT-PT) 26%
Teo Vilela (PSDB-inc) 21%
Mário Agra (PSOL) 1%

Geez, another Collor v. Lessa thing?

[RodPresident]

Lessa is also in troubles because he doesn't paid payroll loans made by public servants.

[RodPresident]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPMY-gR8dI4
A fight between PMDB candidate to senate in Acre, João Correia, that is Serra's supporter against a journalist in TV.
Interview with Dilma in TV Globo was very biased.

[minionofmidas]

My faith in humanity collapses.

That's ... remarkably late in the life of a psephologist.

[Hash]

Interview with Dilma in TV Globo was very biased.

For those who don't know, Roberto Marinho's O Globo empire has always been ultraconservative, being in bed with the anti-Vargas far-right, actively backing the 1964 coup and staying in bed with the regime even during Diretas Ja, then vehemently backing Collor and rigging the debate in his favour (and likely helping Collor dig up dirt on Lula). Yet, even if they're a FOX-like rag, they're taken as seriously as CNN or BBC.

ftr, even Carlos Lacerda broke with the regime (albeit only because he was pissed they didn't give him power).

[RodPresident]

To equalize things, Serra was asked of his alliance with Roberto Jefferson and about expensive tolls in São Paulo.
New polls:
Datafolha (8/9-8/12)
Dilma (governing): 41%
Serra: 33%
Marina: 10%
Run-off
Dilma (governing): 49%
Serra: 41%
SP
Alckmin (PSDB-governing): 54%
Mercadante (PT): 16%
Russomano (PP): 11%
Skaf (PSB): 2%
Fábio Feldmann (PV): 1%
Paulo Búfalo (PSOL)1%
RJ
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB-inc): 57%
Gabeira (PV-rightist): 14%
Eduardo Serra (PCB): 3%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 2%
Fernando Peregrino (PR-Little Guy's guy): 1%
Jefferson Moura (PSOL): 1%
MG
Hélio Costa (PMDB): 43%
Anastasia (PSDB-inc): 17%
Fabinho (PCB) and Vanessa Portugal (PSTU): 2%
Luiz Carlos (PSOL), Pepê (PCO), Zé Fernando (PV) and Edilson Nascimento (PT do B): 1%
BA
Wagner (PT-inc): 45%
Paulo Souto (DEM): 23%
Geddel (PMDB): 10%
Bassuma (PV): 1%
PE
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc): 62%
Jarbas (PMDB-rightist): 21%
Edilson Silva (PSOL) and Jair Pedro (PSTU): 1%
PR
Beto Richa (PSDB): 46%
Osmar Dias (PDT): 34%
RS
Tarso Genro (PT): 35%
José Fogaça (PMDB-rightist): 27%
Yeda Crusius (PSDB-inc): 16%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL), Julio Flores (PSTU) and Schneider (PMN): 1%
DF
Roriz (PSC): 41%
Agnelo (PT): 33%
Toninho do PSOL (PSOL): 2%
Rodrigo Dantas (PSTU) and Ricardo Machado (PCO): 1%

[RodPresident]

Last thursday, we had statewide debates. In SP, Skaf, Mercadante and Russomano were united to attack Alckmin. In RJ, PSOL candidate called Gabeira as ex-Gabeira. In DF, Roriz admits that corruption scheme could have begun in his term. In BA, Wagner was winner. Best moment in debate was PSOL candidate, Marcos Mendes offering a water pot from Caetité to Wagner. There was a contamination by uranium in water system.
Next tuesday, free-air-time begins.

[Hash]

In DF, Roriz admits that corruption scheme could have begun in his term.

Yeah, I saw that. Either he's an honest crook or he's an awfully retarded crook.

[RodPresident]

Grandson of former governor Luiz Henrique is involved in a rape affair along RBS (Globo's affiliate) heir's. Three boys raped former girlfriend of one of them.
http://noticias.terra.com.br/brasil/noticias/0,,OI4541181-EI5030,00-SC+delegado+entrega+inquerito+de+estupro+de+menina+de+anos.html
New IBOPE polls
RN
http://tribunadonorte.com.br/eleicoes2010/noticia/157016
Rosalba (DEM): 48%
Iberê (PSB-inc): 20%
Carlos Eduardo Alves: 12%
Roberto Ronconi (PTC) and Sandro Pimentel (PSOL): 1%
GO
http://noticias.terra.com.br/eleicoes/2010/noticias/0,,OI4623144-EI15314,00-Ibope+aponta+Marconi+com+em+Goias+Iris+tem.html
Marconi Perillo (PSDB): 45%
Iris Rezende (PMDB): 34%
Vanderlan (PR-governing): 5%
Senate
Demóstenes (DEM-inc): 43%
Lúcia Vânia (PSDB-inc): 36%
Pedro Wilson (PT): 16%
Paulo Roberto Cunha (PP): 7%
Adib Elias (PMDB): 6%
Presidential-GO
Dilma: 43%
Serra: 32%
Marina: 8%
Eymael (PSDC) and Plinio (PSOL): 1%

[Hash]

Ibope poll, Aug 12-15: Rousseff +10

Dilma (PT) 42% (+3)
Serra (PSDB) 32% (-2)
Marina (PV) 8% (nc)
Others 1% (+1)
undecided 9% (-3)
blank-null 7% (nc)

[RodPresident]

Celebrity candidates are already appearing. Former soccer player and Corinthians' greatest idol, Marcelinho Carioca, former boxer Maguila, fashion designer Ronaldo Ésper (that was jailed because he was stealing cemetery vases) and comedian Tiririca (his campaign slogan is: Vote Tiririca, worse than is, it isn't.). Also are candidates, deputy Luciana, that heired Eneas' chair and Eneas' imitator Luciano Eneas, that is son of former councilman in Sao Paulo, Osvaldo Eneas, that imitated Eneas to be elected. Another candidates are singers Kiko and Leandro of pop group KLB,son of TV presenter Raul Gil, and son of radialist Eli Correa.
http://presidente40.folha.blog.uol.com.br/arch2010-08-15_2010-08-21.html#2010_08-17_17_20_12-148380024-0 (see in "Melhores Momentos da TV")
P.S.: Jango's grandson, Christopher Goulart, is running for state deputy in RS, like her cousin, Juliana Brizola for PDT.

[RodPresident]

Vox Populi/Band poll, Aug 7-10
Dilma: 45%
Serra: 29%
Marina: 8%
Error margin: 1,8%
BRAZIL KEEPS GOING FORWARD !

[RodPresident]

More funny candidates: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfTFZQDwJQc
Look to Peach Woman, Tiririca and Eneas' heirs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lffyIc01dHY
Lindolfo Pires Beats It (he's running for state deputy in Paraiba).

[Hash]

First round election seems increasingly likely... which would be extremely boring.

[RodPresident]

Datafolha-Folha de São Paulo, August 20
Dilma: 47%
Serra: 30%
Marina: 9%
Null and blank: 4%
Undecided: 8%
Error margin: 2%
Dilma has 38-point led in Northeast
Dilma is winning in most pro-PSDB polling opinion institute.
It will be in 1st Round!
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/786566-dilma-abre-17-pontos-sobre-serra-e-venceria-no-1-turno-aponta-datafolha.shtml

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Dilma suddenly in such a commanding position?

[RodPresident]

President Lula is a very popular president. He has 80% approval. In many states, his approval ratings go to 95%, like in Northeast. This is because social policy, like Family Allowance for poors, Prouni, granting scholarships to many students and because good economic moment, with a 7% growing. Serra is also a bad campaigner and Aecio would be a better candidate than him.

[Hash]

Why is Dilma suddenly in such a commanding position?

She's Lula's candidate.

The only reason she didn't lead at the outset was because nobody knew her. As voters learned who she was, she slowly ate up undecideds and Ciro Gomes' vote (and a bit of Serra's vote, though he's rarely broken 40%, even in 2008 when Dilma was at 1%).

On a side note, this election will be awfully boring except for 'downballot' fun. 2006 was fun, 1994, 1998 and 2002 were largely boring by the end.

[Hash]

Downballot polls, given that it'll be the only races of interest.

MG-Senate, Datafolha
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 68%
Itamar Franco (PPS)   47%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 20%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 3%
Miguel Martini (PHS) 3%
7 others (mostly Trots) 11%
undecided/blank 50%

São Paulo-Senate, Datafolha
Marta Suplicy (PT) 32%
Orestes Quercia (PMDB) 25%
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 23%
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 17%
Ciro Moura (PTC) 15%
Moacyr Franco (PSL) 8%
Ana Luiza (PSTU) 5%
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 5%
7 others (mostly Trots) 9%
undecided/blank/cites 1 60%

Bahia-Senate, Datafolha
César Borges (PR) 36%
Lídice (PSB) 20%
Walter Pinheiro (PT) 17%
José Ronaldo (DEM) 8%
Aleluia (DEM) 5%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB) 4%
Edson Duarte (PV) 4%
4 Trots 6%
undecided/blank/cites 1 99%

RJ-Senate, Datafolha
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 40%
César Maia (DEM) 33%
Lindberg Farias (PT) 22%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 14%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS) 6%
Waguinho (PT do B) 6%
Milton Temer (PSOL) 4%
Carlos Dias (PTdoB) 3%
3 Trots 3%
undecided/blank/cites 1 70%
 
Paraná-Senate, Datafolha
Roberto Requião (PMDB) 49%
Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) 31%
Ricardo Barros (PP) 15%
Gustavo Fruet (PSDB) 13%
timewasters 12%
undecided/blank/cites 1 79%

RS-Senate, Datafolha
Germano Rigotto (PMDB) 43%
Paulo Paim (PT) 35%
Ana Amélia Lemos (PP) 33%
Vera Guaço (PSTU) 3%
José Schneider (PMN) 3%
Marcos Monteiro (PV) 2%
Roberto Gross (PTC) 4%
4 Trots 4%
undecided/blank/cites 1 75%

Maranhão-Gov, 'Escutec'
Roseana "daddy's girl" Sarney (PMDB-inc) 49.6%
Jackson "vote buyer" Lago (PDT) 23.7%
Flávio Dino (PCdoB) 18.2%
3 angry Trots 1.1%
undecided 7.5%

DF-Gov, O&P
Criminal (PSC) 39.3%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 32.3%
Toninho (PSOL) 2.4%
others 1.9%
undecided 24.2%

DF-Gov, Exata
Criminal (PSC) 37.3%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 35.4%
Toninho (PSOL) 4.2%
others 1.8%
undecided 21.3%

[RodPresident]

It's a good sign that Roseana's lead isn't so great in this poll, ordered by her family newspaper. In 2006, her lead was bigger. Now, disgraced former governor Arruda denounced that Roriz paid R$ 2,400,000.00 to not be prosecuted. In Bahia, DEM's campaign is weak and poor, while PT has richest campaign. Geddel attacks Wagner because growing in criminality and weak economical taxes in comparison with other Northeastern states.

[RodPresident]

News from Brazil!
CNT/Sensus, Aug 20-22
Dilma: 46% (+4,4%)
Serra: 28,1% (-3,5%)
Marina: 8,1% (-0,5%)
Valid votes:
Dilma: 55,3%
Serra: 33,7%
Other candidates: 11,4%
Rejection:
Marina: 48,7%
Serra: 40,7%
Dilma: 28,9%
Error margin: 2,2%
*AL poll (Gape/Collor's poll institute)
Collor (PTB): 38%
Lessa (PDT): 23%
Vilela (PSDB-inc): 16%
Agra (PSOL): 1%
Senate:
Heloísa Helena (PSOL): 34%
Renan (PMDB): 20%
Benedito de Lira (PP): 11%
Another candidates: 1%
Presidential election in AL:

Dilma: 57%
Serra: 25%
Marina: 4%
Zé Maria (PSTU):1%
AM presidential:
Dilma: 67,3%
Marina: 14,2%
Serra: 10,7%
http://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/pesquisas/
http://uolpolitica.blog.uol.com.br/
*Yesterday, catholic televisions promoted a debate between Serra, Marina and Plínio. Dilma was absent, twitting.
*Yesterday, I also meet with PSOL's candidates to Senate (Zilmar-505) and for State Deputy (Hilton Coelho-50150). They were giving flyers to people in Federal University of Bahia's gate. They're nice people. Hilton's jingle in Salvador municipal election 2008 became a hit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEHOI3iHMCI
*Lula announced that he's endorsing Lídice da Mata-400 and Walter Pinheiro-130 for Senate in Bahia. Senator César Borges is supporting Dilma, but he voted against Provisional Contribution in Financial Movements, in 2007.
*Maluf's candidacy was barred by Regional Electoral Court in SP.
*A video with Senator Eduardo Suplicy endorsing "Pear Woman" became also youtube hit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocR_7Ycblrs
Last year, he walked with an underpant in Senate:
http://depositomaia.blogspot.com/2009/10/e-o-suplicy-de-cueca-vermelha.html
*Garotinho was sentenced to two-and-a half years in jail, but he will only serve community service. He was found guilty in conspiracy along with former police chief, Alvaro Lins, that was expelled from Legislative Assembly in RJ.

[RodPresident]

News from Brazil!

Datafolha, Aug 23-24
DILMA: 49%
Serra: 29%
Marina: 9%
Region polls:
DILMA: 60% in Northeast, 50% in North/Midwest, 44% in Southeast and 43% in South.
Serra: 21% in Northeast, 29% in North/Midwest, 32% in Southeast and 36% in South.
Marina: 6% in Northeast, 8% in North/Midwest, 11% in Southeast and 7% in South.
Statewide polls
SP: 41%-36%
RS: 43%-39%
BA: 60%-22%
MG: 48%-29%
RJ: 46%-23%
PE: 62%-21%
DF: 45%-24%
PR: 43%-34%

LANDSLIDE IN SIGHT!