Brazil Elections 2010

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Not easy to tell who the lefty is.

Both are centre-leftists, just that Dilma is to the left of the broad centre-left and Serra is to the right of the broad centre-left.

It would be political suicide for the "right" to start impersonating Carlos asshole Menem and preach small government, spending cuts, tax cuts, privatizations and cuts in social programs.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Cardoso never gives a crap about an equality and easing social and economic divisions, and his role is overrated.

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Ibope/Globo TV
Dilma (PT) 47%
Serra (PSDB) 43%
blank/null 5%
undecided 3%

valid vote simulation:
Dilma (PT) 53%
Serra (PSDB) 47%

[Tender Branson]

Dilma -> Coakley ?

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Dilma -> Coakley ?

That's quite a ridiculous comparison. Dilma's campaign certainly hasn't been subpar (it hasn't been phenomenal, but it was pretty good). As I mentioned before; the abortion issue has hurt her a lot, the fact that there's a runoff psychologically helped Serra a lot and hurt her, he's finally found his voice and is leading a good campaign and his ads are strong. He's hitting her hard on corruption (which he shied away from doing in the past), and he's using strong and powerful examples of social work he's done in SP and perhaps the fact that his ads give solid examples of such things help. Dilma's ads haven't been as powerful, focusing a bit too much on "Lula did this, that, this, that and I'll do it too and FHC hates poor people" and maybe the fact that they're downright lying when they say Serra would scrap big social programs could backfire.

Marina's voters are also going heavily to Serra. As I said on the very night of election day, her voters were largely more urban/educated/well-off thus a good Serra demographic and her evangelical supporters are also going heavily Serra.

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CNT/Sensus (crappy pollster, usually)
Dilma (PT) 46.8% / 52.3% of valid votes
Serra (PSDB) 42.7% / 47.7% of valid votes
undecided 6.6%
blank/null 4%

Vox Populi (bad pollster)
Dilma (PT) 48% / 53%
Serra (PSDB) 40% / 47%
undecided 6%
blank/null 6%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

why does dilma fail

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Dilma -> Coakley ?

That's quite a ridiculous comparison. Dilma's campaign certainly hasn't been subpar (it hasn't been phenomenal, but it was pretty good). As I mentioned before; the abortion issue has hurt her a lot, the fact that there's a runoff psychologically helped Serra a lot and hurt her, he's finally found his voice and is leading a good campaign and his ads are strong. He's hitting her hard on corruption (which he shied away from doing in the past), and he's using strong and powerful examples of social work he's done in SP and perhaps the fact that his ads give solid examples of such things help. Dilma's ads haven't been as powerful, focusing a bit too much on "Lula did this, that, this, that and I'll do it too and FHC hates poor people" and maybe the fact that they're downright lying when they say Serra would scrap big social programs could backfire.

Marina's voters are also going heavily to Serra. As I said on the very night of election day, her voters were largely more urban/educated/well-off thus a good Serra demographic and her evangelical supporters are also going heavily Serra.

^^^

[RodPresident]

-In Para, former governor Almir Gabriel endorsed incumbent Ana Julia (PT) and Dilma Rousseff for Presidency.
-PSOL asked for "No vote for Serra". Plinio announced that he will void his vote, while senator-elect Randolfe Rodrigues (AP) and three congressmen elect to Chamber will vote in Dilma. PCB also endorsed Dilma, saying "First, we'll defeat Serra in election, and then we'll defeat Dilma in streets".
-Now, Serra's wife, Monica, is being accused of abortion during their exile.
-Paulo Vieira de Souza (Paulo Preto) scandal: Former director of Dersa (public corporation that builds highways in São Paulo) is being accused of receive bribe money for PSDB and for stealing R$4,0 million from Serra's campaign. He's friend of senator-elect Aloysio Nunes Ferreira (PSDB-SP). First, Serra said that he didn't know Vieira de Souza, but after threats, he said that Vieira "is efficient".

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

And how are pols/predictions for Alagoas gubernatorial, after Fernie decided to be new Ronaldo's friend?

[RodPresident]

In Alagoas, it's Vilela 50 x 41 Lessa. This poll was ordered by PSDB (Vilela's party) to Vox Populi. Poll was made during October 13-14.
In DF, Ibope poll appoints Agnelo 53 x 35 Weslian Roriz. Weslian boycotted Band's debate fearing gaffes.
In PI, Wilson (PSB) 53 x 42 (PSDB) Mendes.
In GO, Alcides Rodrigues (PP) and Vanderlan Cardoso (PR) endorsed Iris Rezende (PMDB).

[RodPresident]

Amapa, IBOPE, Oct. 15-17
Camilo Capiberibe (PSB): 50%
Lucas Barreto (PTB): 43%
-PV, PPS and PRB endorsed Capiberibe, like senator Papaleo Paes (PSDB-AP). I believe that Capiberibe is seen as anti-corruption guy.
Roraima, IBOPE, Oct. 15-17
Neudo Campos (PP): 50%
Anchieta Jr. (PSDB): 41%
-Marluce Pinto, after her defeat, split with Anchieta and she will support Neudo in run-off.
-Fabio Feldmann, Luiz Bassuma and Fernando Gabeira endorsed Serra, while PV, in Parana and Acre, endorsed Dilma.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Vox Populi poll:

51% Dilma Rousseff
39% Jose Serra

[MaxQue]

When are the runoffs?

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When are the runoffs?

October 31.

[Niemeyerite]

I am supporting dilma with hope, now. Marina said the other day that she won't make an endorsement. IMO, that's positive for dilma, because people were saying marina was likely to support serra. actually, she said dilma's ideas were more in line with her ideas than serra's =D!

welcome ms. president!!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Naturally, you all can figure out I'm supporting Dilma all the time. I just can't stand Marina's views on social issues and Serra is, well, Serra.

Funny thing, by the way: by the new year you'll have 3 out of 5 former Presidents to serve together in Senate: Sarney, Itamar and Fernie (no move back to Alagoas, buddy).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

[RodPresident]

Election is gaining colors of a Negative Ads War. Last Wednesday, during a campaign walking in Rio de Janeiro, there was a clash between PSDB and PT militants. Serra was hit by a roll of masking tape, but he simulated that he had suffered a major injury. He went to hospital and he was treated by a doctor linked to PSDB/DEM. Serra was compared to former Chilean goalkeeper Roberto Rojas by president Lula.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Election is gaining colors of a Negative Ads War. Last Wednesday, during a campaign walking in Rio de Janeiro, there was a clash between PSDB and PT militants. Serra was hit by a roll of masking tape, but he simulated that he had suffered a major injury. He went to hospital and he was treated by a doctor linked to PSDB/DEM. Serra was compared to former Chilean goalkeeper Roberto Rojas by president Lula.

This is so Polish...

[RodPresident]

First, he was victim of a paper ball. News:
-Heloisa Helena left PSOL Presidency. She is very weakned after her defeat and her boycott of Plínio's campaign.
-European green politics, like José Bové, Daniel Cohn Bendit and Dominique Voynet, endorsed Dilma

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You gotta love how French politicians make large public endorsements in countries they don't know jack about just to act all cool and international.

[Niemeyerite]

Dilma will win. It's over. Even my aunt, who is campaigning hard for serra in BH, recognizes it =DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Dilma will win. It's over. Even my aunt, who is campaigning hard for serra in BH, recognizes it =DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Is that the same aunt that, as you said, voted for Collor "because he was beautifiul"?

[Niemeyerite]

Dilma will win. It's over. Even my aunt, who is campaigning hard for serra in BH, recognizes it =DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Is that the same aunt that, as you said, voted for Collor "because he was beautifiul"?

Hahahaha, no. that is another aunt xD. One was supposed to vote for marina, is a member of the PV, but finally voted for serra because she said marina didn't stand a chance. The other is a very conservative baptist, and she is the one who campaigned hard for serra and now recognizes dilma will be elected. finally, there we have Luzia, the one who loves collor because he is gorgeous xD. she is my aunt, but she is so ridiculous ...xD.