Brazil Elections 2010

[Hash]

My prediction of Senate makeup:

* - close calls, could be wrong on second seat

Acre* Jorge Viana (PT) and Edvaldo Magalhães (PCdoB). 2007-2015 term Senator Tião Viana (PT) will become Governor and be replaced by Anibal Diniz (PT).
>PV and PMDB lose one seat each, PT and PCdoB gain one seat each
Alagoas: Renan Calheiros (PMDB) and Heloísa Helena (PSOL). 2007-2015 term Senator Fernando Collor (PTB) could become Governor and be replaced by Euclydes Mello (PTB), who is also his cousin (note to me: if I run for Senate, my cousin is gonna be my suppleant)
>PSDB lose one seat, PSOL gains one seat
Amazonas* Eduardo Braga (PMDB) and Vanessa Graziotin (PCdoB)
>PSDB lose one seat, PCdoB gains one seat
Amapá* a real f*ing sh**tfest. Waldez Goes (PDT) and Gilvam Borges (PMDB).
>PSDB lose one seat, PDT gains one seat
Bahia* Walter Pinheiro (PT) and César Borges (PR).
>DEM lose one seat, PT gains one seat
Ceará* Tasso Jereissati (PSDB) and Eunício Oliveira (PMDB).
>PDT lose one seat, PMDB gains one seat
Distrito Federal Cristovam Buarque (PDT) and Rollemberg (PSB).
>DEM lose one seat, PSB gains one seat
Espírito Santo: Magno Malta (PR) and Ricardo Ferraco (PMDB). 2007-2015 term Senator Renato Casagrande (PSB) will be elected Governor and replaced by Ana Rita Esgário (PT)
>PSB loses one seat, PT gains one seat
Goiás: Demóstenes Torres (DEM) and Lúcia Vânia (PSDB). 2007-2015 term Senator Marconi Perillo (PSDB) will likely become Governor and be replaced by Cyro Miranda Gifford Júnior (PSDB??)
>no change
Maranhão: Edson Lobão (PMDB) and João Alberto (PMDB).
>no change
Mato Grosso: Blairo Maggi (PR) and Carlos Abicalil (PT)
>DEM lose one seat, PR gains one seat
Mato Grosso do Sul: Delcídio Amaral (PT) and Dagoberto Noguiera (PDT)
>PMDB loses one seat, PDT gains one seat
Minas Gerais: Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Itamar Franco (PPS).
>PMDB lose one seat, PPS gains one seat
Pará* Flexa Ribeiro (PSDB) and Marinor Brito (PSOL)
Paraíba: Cássio Cunha Lima (PSDB) and Vitalzinho (PMDB)
>PRB and DEM loses one seat each, PSDB and PMDB gain one seat each
Paraná: Roberto Requião (PMDB) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT).
>PDT and PSDB lose one seat each, PMDB and PT gain one seat each
Pernambuco: Humberto Costa (PT) and Armando Monteiro Neto (PTB)
>PSDB and DEM lose one seat each, PT and PTB gain one seat each
Piauí* Wellington Dias (PT) and Mão Santa (PSC)
>DEM lose one seat, PT gains one seat
Rio de Janeiro: Lindberg Farias (PT) and Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc)
>PMDB loses one seat, PT gains one seat
Rio Grande do Norte: Garibaldi Alves Filho (PMDB) and José Agripino Maia (DEM). 2007-2015 term Senator Rosalba Ciarlini (DEM) will be elected Governor and be replaced by Garibaldi Alves (PMDB), who is Garibaldi Alves Filho's dad.
>DEM loses one seat, PMDB gains one seat
Rondônia: Ivo Cassol (PP) and Valdir Raupp (PMDB)
>PT loses one seat, PP gains one seat
Roraima: Romero Jucá (PMDB) and Angela Portela (PT)
>no change (Augusto Botelho is now independent, but ex-PT)
Rio Grande do Sul: Ana Amélia Lemos (PP) and Paulo Paim (PT)
>PTB loses one seat, PP gains one seat
Santa Catarina* Luiz Henrique da Silveira (PMDB) and Paulo Bauer (PSDB)
>PT loses one seat, PSDB gains one seat
São Paulo: Marta Suplicy (PT) and Netinho de Paula (PCdoB)
>PTB loses one seat, PCdoB gains one seat
Sergipe* Valadares (PSB) and Eduardo Amorim (PSC)
>PMDB loses one seat, PSC gains one seat
Tocantins: João Ribeiro (PR) and Marcelo Miranda (PMDB)
>no change

overall for the new term: PMDB 14, PT 11, PSDB 6, PR 4, PSB 2, PCdoB 3, PSC 2, PDT 3, PP 2, DEM 2, PTB 1, PPS 1, PRB 1, PSOL 2

[Psychic Octopus]

I don't know very much about Brazilian politics, but I am eager to learn. All I have heard is that Dilma is a former radical, who was tortured by the dictatorship, and has never held elected office before. I know she is backed by Lula, whose popularity she will ride into office. Serra is a career politician, I know, who lost to Lula in 2002. That's about it.

Anyone care to give me a crash course on Brazilian politics?

[Hash]

I don't know very much about Brazilian politics, but I am eager to learn. All I have heard is that Dilma is a former radical, who was tortured by the dictatorship, and has never held elected office before. I know she is backed by Lula, whose popularity she will ride into office. Serra is a career politician, I know, who lost to Lula in 2002. That's about it.

Anyone care to give me a crash course on Brazilian politics?

If you have time: http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2010-brazilian-election/
If you don't: pm me.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd probably vote for either Silva or Sampaio.

[Hash]

I'd probably vote for either Silva or Sampaio.

1. people call him Plinio, not "Sampaio"
2. Marina Silva is a centrist ecocapitalist, not a tree-hugging hippie loon.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd probably vote for either Silva or Sampaio.

1. people call him Plinio, not "Sampaio"
2. Marina Silva is a centrist ecocapitalist, not a tree-hugging hippie loon.

1. Ok.
2. Is the party itself also like that?

[Hash]

2. Is the party itself also like that?

Yes.

(do beware that "parties" in Brazil, except for a few, don't mean anything and are merely empty labels for politicians to wear).

[Hash]

Tweeter is going crazy with the last-minute polling!

AL-Senate, Ibope
Renan Calheiros (PMDB-inc) 56%
Benedito de Lira (PP) 49%
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) 44%

AL-Governor, Ibope
Teo Vilela (PSDB-inc) 34%
Fernando Collor (PTB) 31%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT) 24%
others 2%

PR-Governor, Ibope
Beto Richa (PSDB-gov) 45%
Osmar Dias (PDT) 45%
others 2%

CE-Senator, Ibope
Tasso Jereissati (PSDB-inc) 50%
Eunício Oliveira (PMDB) 47%
José Pimentel (PT) 42%
others 8%

RS-Governor, Ibope
Tarso Genro (PT) 48%
José Fogaça (PMDB) 26%
Yeda Crusius (PSDB-inc) 15%
others 3%

Belo Horizonte-President, Ibope
Marina (PV) 32%
Dilma Rousseff (PT) 32%
Jose Serra (PSDB) 19%

[Hash]

interesting things to waste your time on:

history of political parties post-79: http://veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-2010-genealogia-partidos.shtml
bios of the 3 candidates: http://veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-2010-trajetoria-candidatos.shtml
full list of political dynasties: http://veja.abril.com.br/infograficos/genealogia-politica/
candidate match test: http://veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-2010-teste-candidatos-pensa-voce.shtml
quiz on the 3 candidate: http://veja.abril.com.br/eleicoes/eleicoes-2010-quanto-sabe-candidatos.shtml

[Edu]

Next year i was planning on doing a thread about the Argentine presidential election, but after reading this i don't think i can even write half of the amount of information i got here. It's really discouraging

Great job Hash and everyone else who contributed here, i learned quite a bit

[Niemeyerite]

that Ibope poll must be a joke, mustn't it??

[Hash]

Next year i was planning on doing a thread about the Argentine presidential election

You must. Absolutely must. I don't know anything about Argentine politics, so I must learn

[Hash]

MG-Governor, Ibope (valid votes only)
Antônio Anastasia (PSDB-inc) 58%
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 40%
others 2%

fun fact: in January, Anastasia was polling 10-12%.

DF-Governor, Ibope
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 51%
Weslian Roriz (PSC) 32%
Toninho (PSOL) 13%
Eduardo Brandão (PV) 3%

RJ-Governor, Ibope
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB-inc) 68%
Fernando Gabeira (PV) 23%
Fernando Peregrino (PR) 5%
others 4%

RJ-Senate, Ibope
Lindberg Farias (PT) 30%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc) 24%
Cesar Maia (DEM) 17%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 17%
Waguinho (PT do B) 7%
others 5%

PE-Governor, Ibope
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 80%
Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB) 18%
others 2%

fun fact: Aecio Neves won 77.2% of the votes in the first round in 2006, so Eduardo Campos could beat that . And my random prediction for 2014 is that Campos runs for Senate and defeats Vasconcelos in a landslide if Vasconcelos bothers running again.

PE-Senate, Ibope
Humberto Costa (PT) 40%
Armando Monteiro (PTB) 33%
Marco Maciel (DEM) 19%
Raul Jungmann (PPS) 7%
others 1%

[Hash]

MG-Senate, Ibope
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 45%
tamar Franco (PPS) 28%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 22%
Zito Vieira (PCdoB) 3%
others 2%

SP-Governor, Ibope
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 51%
Aloizio Mercadante (PT) 33%
Celso Russomanno (PP) 8%
Paulo Skaf (PSB) 6%
others 2%

SP-Senate, Ibope
Marta Suplicy (PT) 27%
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 27%
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 19%
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 12%
Ricardo Young (PV) 5%
Ciro Moura (PTC) 3%
Moacyr Franco (PSL) 3%
others 4%

last minute info: the PTB has disendorsed Serra and Roberto Jefferson, everybody's favourite crook, said that he'd vote for Plinio (lol). This shouldn't be surprising, the PTB being what it is, it was likely very scared that its privileged access to money and graft be endangered, so it jumped ship. plus, like half the party already was on Dilma's side (ex: Collor).

Serra also pleaded for there to be a runoff, "for the country's good", which sounds to me like "please, at least don't kick my ass in the first round! "

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More like 'please let me retain some dignity'.

[Hash]

Ibope:
Dilma 51
Serra 31
Marina 17
others 1
MoE: 3

Datafolha:
Dilma 50
Serra 31
Marina 17
others 2
MoE: 3

[Tender Branson]

How accurate are polls in Brazil ?

Another interesting question will be if Dilma will get more votes than Lula got in 2006.

If about 105-110 Mio. people turn out to vote and she gets about 55% (undecideds leaning her way factored in), that would mean about 60 Mio. votes and more than Lula got.

[Tender Branson]

Results can be found here:

http://divulgacao.tse.gov.br

There are 135.804.433 people eligible to vote today.

Turnout is normally between 80 and 85% in Brazil, which means 109-115 Mio. people will vote.

[Hash]

How accurate are polls in Brazil ?

Presidential polls are generally good, downballot polls especially in the Northeast are not as good and in some cases underestimated the left (see: Bahia 2006 - polls gave pefelista Paulo Souto way ahead, when in fact the PT won).

President 2006: Lula +11 (result: Lula +7)
but...
Bahia 2006: PFL +24 (result: PT +9.9)
Pernambuco 2006: PFL +8 (result: PFL +5.5)
Ceara 2006: PSB +23 (result: PSB +28.5)
RN 2006: tie (result: PSB +1)
RJ 2006: PMDB +21 (result: PMDB +17.6)
RS 2006: PMDB +7 (result: PSDB +5.5 over PT, +5.8 over PMDB)
Parana 2006: PMDB +14 (result: PMDB +4.2)
SP 2006: PSDB +31 (result: PSDB +26.2)

[Hash]

Why it's best for the French media not to talk about Brazil:

-France 2 confused Parana with Panama
-France 2 said Dilma was "Prime Minister" of Brazil in Lula's cabinet.
-The French media in general uses polls from last week

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

PE-Senate, Ibope
Humberto Costa (PT) 40%
Armando Monteiro (PTB) 33%
Marco Maciel (DEM) 19%
Raul Jungmann (PPS) 7%
others 1%

Good riddance.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Why is Lessa going down in AL gubernatorial while an unpopular incumbent, who was a third for a quite long, is now Fernie's main opponent?

[RodPresident]

Vilela received endorsement from very popular mayor of Maceió, Cícero Almeida (PP). Cícero is the most popular politician of Alagoas. He is already singer and journalist. He was already taxi driver. But polls can be manipulated in Alagoas. We need to remember that Globo is owned by Collor in Alagoas.
Plínio said "as a good christian, I believe that people can repent", about Jefferson's support.
Comedian Tiririca (PR-SP) voted without his dress http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/808671-sem-fantasia-tiririca-vota-em-sp-e-diz-que-nao-esperava-repercussao.shtml

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Pimentel wins =DDDDDDDDDDDDD

[redcommander]

Any chance Serra pulls an upset? Why would the opposition nominate him again anyway?