Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of rogue polls, did the infamous ICM poll in April 1997 (which showed a five-point Labour lead, the lowest for over four years) cause any Labour supporters to fear another 1992?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of rogue polls, did the infamous ICM poll in April 1997 (which showed a five-point Labour lead, the lowest for over four years) cause any Labour supporters to fear another 1992?

Most of the ones who were (irrationally) worried about that prospect were worried about it anyway.

[Phony Moderate]

The Morgan Poll, translated into seats:

Labor - 109
Coalition - 38
Others - 3

[Hash]

Roy Morgan also polled Senate races, it seems:

ALP 40%
Coalition 36%
GRN 15.5%

Tally Room sez Greens at 18% in WA, 17% in NSW, 16.5% SA, 14% in Victoria, 13% in QLD, 21.5% in Tasmania and equal with the ALP at 27% in the ACT. He also writes that ALP gets 33-34 seats, Coalition 31-32 and 10 Greens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Senate polls are worse than useless.

[Platypus]

except in the ACT, because realistically the second senate seat for the territory functions largely similarly to a HoR seat. In theory and so far in practice the ALP get one Senator and the Liberals the other, but if the Greens are polling better than the coalition you wouldn't bet the house on Humphries' reelection.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

[You kip if you want to...]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

[Phony Moderate]

That looks like something out of Prime Minister Forever.

[Phony Moderate]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

[You kip if you want to...]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

On UNS.

[Phony Moderate]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

On UNS.

Yep.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

Numbers are not my friends. You know that.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I see people here are unfamiliar with the concept of the 'wind-up' .

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see people here are unfamiliar with the concept of the 'wind-up' .

Was it not obvious that I were playing along? Damn.

[You kip if you want to...]

Bob Hawke on the 'boat-people' issue: "We’re all bloody boat people! That’s how we found the place."

Win.

[Phony Moderate]

The bookies are making Labor the pretty firm favorites, ftr.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/australian-federal-election/winning-party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

[You kip if you want to...]

The Green from Melbourne, should he win, is to go with Labor in the event of a hung parliament.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/bandt-says-he-will-side-with-labor-20100814-12482.html

[Phony Moderate]

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

I don't know about Australia, but polls in marginals have been pretty bad in this country, ftr.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

I don't know about Australia, but polls in marginals have been pretty bad in this country, ftr.

Constituency polling tends to be bad the world over. Just look at the polling in some of the US congressional districts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It isn't much good in Australia either. But that's not why I posted the link...

[Smid]

The polls are all bouncy, bouncy, bouncy:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/huge-swing-against-labor-puts-tony-abbott-on-bring-of-stunning-election-win/story-fn5z3z83-1225905307127

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll
2PP: 52-48
Primary vote: 41 (-1) 38 (nc) 14 (+1)

The Coalition's lead on economic trust has fallen from 12% to 1%, possibly due to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeNih2aRZes

Of course, there's also the costing problem they've had.