Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Magic!

Thank you ma'am.

Gillard 'hell-bent' on early election, according to the Liberal Party.

I'm guessing it would be either late August or early September. August, at this point seems to be the likely month; Gillard will continue to enjoy her honeymoon and the hapless Liberals will be unable to conjure their campaign against her. August 28 appears to be the exact date according to Sporting Bet having moved into$2.50 overnight.

[Smid]

My colleague advises that the radio has been reporting that there have been numerous quiet photos taken by the PM in prep for an election campaign. There are also apparently "training meetings" scheduled for the weekend, which the journos believe is code for "I'm off to see the GG, the wonderful GG of Oz."

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/julia-gillard-clears-deck-for-election/story-e6freuy9-1225888708663

[Phony Moderate]

So when is the likely announcment date?

[Smid]

So when is the likely announcment date?

There is a lot of speculation that it will happen tomorrow (probably morning). The betting markets strongly favour an election date of 21 or 28 August.

[DL]

Have there been any polls on vote preference since Julia Gillard took over?

[Phony Moderate]

Have there been any polls on vote preference since Julia Gillard took over?

There's been one, which shows Labor ahead by 53% to 47% on two-part preference.

[Smid]

Well, she didn't call it yesterday. I still think we'll see an August election, although she needs to fix her Dili Solution first, which has far too many holes in it to risk calling an election.

[Mr. Morden]

Have there been any polls on vote preference since Julia Gillard took over?

There's been one, which shows Labor ahead by 53% to 47% on two-part preference.

Oh, there's been more than one.  Several, in fact.  Two out just today, which both show Labor leading 52% - 48% on the two party preference:

link

However, on the primary vote count, Nielsen has the Coalition slightly ahead, at:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2950571.htm

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 14%

[Smid]

Channel Nine is reporting that the Prime Minister is meeting with the Governor General in fifteen minutes. Commentators are saying that Labor's internal polls are 50-50, but I think that's just to try to spook people into not casting a protest vote.

[Smid]

Live Streaming on the ABC website:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

[Хahar 🤔]

Exciting!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Gillard Calls Election for August 21

It was a horrendous speech, truly horrible. Never have I heard the term "backwards" mentioned so many times. I can't say the same thing for trust; Howard made that his bitch in 2004 and nobody has been able to use it effectively since.

[Smid]

I missed the speeches... had to head down to get my haircut and left just after she arrived at the Governor General's. Then I got back just as Channel Nine ended their coverage. Got Sky News on now, but I preferred Channel Nine's coverage. Sky's Labor commentator is good, but they never have decent Liberals for right-wing comment, whereas Nine had Kroger and personally, I think he's one of the brightest political minds in Australia. They also had Richardson for Labor, who I've never liked, but he certainly understands politics, so I think that was a good match.

[Tender Branson]

Gillard's chances get a legs-up



Forget the polls and the electronic worms. If the prophecy of the Herald's  very own psychic octopus is to be believed, Tony Abbott will be inked out of history come the federal election.

The octopus, Cassandra, was consulted at the Sydney Institute of Marine Science, after it became clear that Paul - the German oracle octopus that enjoyed a spectacular run of success during the World Cup - was too busy to help.

Cassandra's preference for Julia Gillard was clear. Despite being a solitary animal, she wrapped her long arms around the Prime Minister's photo.

Her reaction to the Opposition Leader's image was less enthusiastic: she turned a defensive black colour.

In Greek mythology Cassandra was given the gift of prophecy by the god Apollo. However, when Cassandra did not return Apollo's love, he placed a curse on her so that no one would believe her predictions, such as the fall of Troy.

Apart from her dabble in divination, Cassandra will be used as part of a research project involving the Marine Science Institute, Macquarie University and Harvard University to investigate whether octopuses can learn by observation.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/gillards-chances-get-a-legsup-20100716-10e73.html

[Tender Branson]

Hallo FFFRRReeeunde !!!

LOL.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think that what we've seen in Australia is a turn away from a presidential style of leadership, which is the opposite of what's happened in most countries. My (rather uninformed imperssion) was that Howard was very much in charge of things; that cannot be said of Rudd or Gillard. Whoever runs the country now, it is not the Prime Minister.

[Mr. Morden]

Galaxy poll out today shows almost exactly the same result as that Nielsen poll from last week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/18/2956855.htm?section=justin

Primary vote:

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 13%

2 party preference:

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

[You kip if you want to...]

Galaxy poll out today shows almost exactly the same result as that Nielsen poll from last week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/18/2956855.htm?section=justin

Primary vote:

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 13%

2 party preference:

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

How reliable does Australian polling tend to be? Is it safe to say that the ALP will more than likely get reelected?

[DL]

I assume that people voting Green will overwhelmingly preference the ALP over the coalition since Tony Abbott's whole raison d'etre in politics is to anti-environmentalist and to be a climate change denier.

[Smid]

Galaxy poll out today shows almost exactly the same result as that Nielsen poll from last week:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/18/2956855.htm?section=justin

Primary vote:

Coalition 42%
Labor 39%
Greens 13%

2 party preference:

Labor 52%
Coalition 48%

How reliable does Australian polling tend to be? Is it safe to say that the ALP will more than likely get reelected?

Nielson, Galaxy and Newspoll are the three main polls and typically very reliable. I think in the Queensland state election, Galaxy was off by 0.5%. Morgan is a joke pollster who thinks he gets more accurate results using face-to-face interviews, rather than phone polling. As a result, he over-polls metropolitan areas and under-polls more conservative rural and regional areas, and he's typically (at risk of sounding like the +6 rule) 4-6% more Labor than the other pollsters. In 2001, he was the only pollster predicting a Labor victory. Every now and then, something big happens (leadership change, etc) and he does a very quick poll, which is done using phone polling methods (to be quick) at which point, he's about as accurate as other pollsters, making a jump of several percent to the Coalition... making every major announcement in Australian politics massively favour the Coalition according to Morgan polls. He's an eccentric in real life. A friend of mine's sister works for him, apparently, and he supposedly walks up to people and fires them, before calling them back the next day and saying "just kidding." Don't trust Morgan polls. Essential Research was also doing polls, but it was all over the internet and I think suffered from all the problems of polls in which people select themselves to participate. Consequently it was even more unfavourable to the Coalition than Morgan, usually elevating both Labor and Greens votes, particularly Greens. Someone was saying the other day, though, that they've changed their model recently and are now more accurate.

Anyway, I think you can trust Nielson, Galaxy and Newspoll and generally disregard the other pollsters.

I assume that people voting Green will overwhelmingly preference the ALP over the coalition since Tony Abbott's whole raison d'etre in politics is to anti-environmentalist and to be a climate change denier.

http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateTppFlow-13745-NAT.htm

That page shows the number of votes distributed to lower party preferences according to the party for which the first preference was cast. As you can see, 23.299 Liberal votes were distributed to lower-party preferences - and went to the National Party (85.45%), while 3,967 Liberal Party first preference votes (14.55%) were distributed to the Labor Party ahead of their Coalition partners, the National Party. This can be compared to the Nats, where a lower proportion preferenced the Liberals (78.12%).

Anyway, you can clearly see from this that about 80% of Greens first preferences flowed to the Labor Party, with only about 20% flowing to the Liberal Party. You can also click on the different states up the top and see whether this varied between states. Additionally, these figures are available for each electorate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Labor has the edge for sure.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there any easy way to predict what's going to happen in the Senate?

[Smid]

Is there any easy way to predict what's going to happen in the Senate?

Pretty much the same way we predict what's going to happen in the Atlasian Senate for the National At-Large elections.

Antony Green usually puts something up on his website for that sort of thing. Generally speaking it's likely to be 3-3 left-right in most states. The main question is which states the Greens will get seats and which states Labor will get three seats. I mean, it's possible that in some instances, the Coalition may fail to get their three seats, but it's unlikely, especially with the current primary vote. In recent elections, where the combined Liberal/National vote has been greater than about 42%, the Coalition has held 3 Senators in each state, and in the case of 2004, where the primary vote was closer to 45%, the Coalition held 4 Senators in Queensland, almost got 4 in Tasmania and had 3 in Victoria, with the conservative Family First Party picking up a Senator as well (although to be fair, FFP picked up their Senator with about 1.5% of the vote, so quite unlikely to be replicated).

In the Northern Territory, Labor and the Country Liberal Party will each win a Senate seat. The result could be more interesting in the ACT, where Labor will win one Senator and the second Senator will be a battle between the Liberals and the Greens, although I think the Libs should hang on there.

Of course, being PR, even a small difference can change the overall result, so it can be difficult to predict final results. However, quota will be 1/7th of the vote, or 14.29%. To win three Senators in their own right, the Coalition only needs 42.86% of the primary vote... and that's not including any of the preferences that may trickle through to them.

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll 16-18 Jul 2010

ALP - 42 (nc)
Lib - 34 (-4)
Nat - 4 (+1)
Green - 12 (+2)
Other - 8 (nc)

2PP -
ALP - 55 (+2)
Lib/Nat - 45 (-2)

[Mr. Morden]

Has there been any speculation anywhere about what would happen to the Lib leadership after the election, if Labor is indeed reelected?  Are they likely to stick with Abbott for the time being, or might there be a challenge from Hockey, or someone else?