Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Smid]

Morgan phone poll has it at 51-49 to Labor on primaries of 42 38 13 to the Coalition.

State breakdowns show a hung parliament with Labor one seat short. Assuming that the Greens win Melbourne and agree to prop up Labor, that still leaves the 3 independants as the kingmakers.

That's hilariously close to what my prediction was - 50.8% ALP to 49.2% and I've already told you about the numbers of seats.

Of course, if that Newspoll in Qld proves correct, I could be totally wrong and it could be a Coalition majority. Last weekend, one of the polls (I think Galaxy) had the LNP picking up 11 seats... which is one seat more than the 10 they lost to Labor last election. I was speaking to someone very senior in political circles today (my Facebook friends know of whom I am referring) and he was saying about how damaged the Labor brand currently is in NSW, too.

[You kip if you want to...]

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Also, Poll Bludger reports that Coalition sources are saying that late deciders in QLD are falling too Labor...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I heard from someone intimately involved in the Liberal campaign. They think their best hope is a minority government - QLD isn't going to be good for the ALP, but maybe not the bloodbath the LNP needs. They also aren't sure about Bennelong, Greenway, or Macquarie (3 NSW seats that are must wins for the Coalition)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also people keep in mind should Brandt win Melbourne he won't be the first Green MP, Michael Organ won the Cunningham by-election in 2002. He would be the first to win at a general election.

[Platypus]

Carn Jules!

I tip Victoria to save Labor's arse. Excluding Melbourne, I'd guess all the swing seats (McEwen, Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe) will go Labor, but none of them are definite. They're screwed in WA and will lose seats in NSW and QLD, but I think the buffer will be enough if Gillard can keep Victorians on side, and I think she can.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11020897

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the great things about Australian elections from a spectators point of view is the wildly divergent nature of pre-election speculation about how things are really going.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Where is the best place for Yanks to watch?

If not live than just updates?

What time would coverage start for us?

[You kip if you want to...]

Where is the best place for Yanks to watch?

If not live than just updates?

What time would coverage start for us?

http://www.skynews.com.au/ - Sky stream
http://www.livestation.com/account/streams/1918595-abc_australia_livestream_not_247 - There might be an ABC stream here.

[Phony Moderate]

The Sky stream is worse than useless, at least for me.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Sky stream is worse than useless, at least for me.

I don't think they've started it up yet. It's only for their election programme.

[Phony Moderate]

The audio is working on the Sky stream at the moment.

[Ebowed]

One of the great things about Australian elections from a spectators point of view is the wildly divergent nature of pre-election speculation about how things are really going.

I can tell you that we're looking either at a Labor blow-out, close Labor victory, close Liberal victory, or Liberal blow-out.  It's looking close...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blank maps:

[Phony Moderate]

Blank maps:

Thanks.

[Хahar 🤔]

Figuring out that map is like solving a puzzle.

[You kip if you want to...]

What time does coverage start, British time?

[redcommander]

What caused Gillard to gain back her footing in the last week of the campaign? It seemed like Abbott was gaining a lead until recently.

[Dan the Roman]

What caused Gillard to gain back her footing in the last week of the campaign? It seemed like Abbott was gaining a lead until recently.

1. She stopped he bleeding.

2. It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

[Hash]

Blank maps:

You win at life. Thanks a million.

[You kip if you want to...]

Any progress on a live stream? ABC has one, but it's Australia only. I tried one of the IP clocking things that usually works for US sites like NBC, but it didn't work. The Sky feed's a bit choppy for me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think ABC might be opening theirs up later so ex-pats can watch. Not sure when and - anyway - I might be wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These are - by the look of it - the final set of polls.

Galaxy: ALP 52
Nielsen: ALP 52
Essential Research: ALP 51
Morgan: ALP 51
Newspoll: ALP 50.2

Edit: in 2007 Labor took 52.7% of the 2PP vote.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think ABC might be opening theirs up later so ex-pats can watch. Not sure when and - anyway - I might be wrong.

Ah, a bit of Tweet searching confirms it:

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http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/media/s2982431.htm