Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be amazed if Abbott could survive an electoral defeat; he'd certainly be challenged.

[minionofmidas]

Newspoll 16-18 Jul 2010

ALP - 42 (nc)
Lib - 34 (-4)
Nat - 4 (+1)
Green - 12 (+2)
Other - 8 (nc)

2PP -
ALP - 55 (+2)
Lib/Nat - 45 (-2)

55-45? Seriously? What kind of House result does that give? (Also, at 12% I suppose the Greens may win seats?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

55% gives the ALP 99 seats to the Coalition's 48.

As for the Greens, they presumably have reasonable chances of gains in various gentrified inner-urban divisions, so long as the Liberals keep sending preferences in their direction. Their main target is Melbourne.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know it's pointless pointing it out as we all know anyway, but ABC's election coverage puts those of just about all other broadcasters everywhere to shame. Here, for example, is a list (with mini-biographies) of all retiring MPs: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/departingmps.htm

[The Mikado]

I love watching their election returns come in: IRV leads to exciting election nights.

[Democratic Hawk]

Is it just me or are Labor somewhat resurgent? Pops' cousins are ALL Labor

[You kip if you want to...]

When's the debate?

Also, a 17-18 July Galaxy poll has the parties at 50-50 (a Lib win) on 2PP. So 50-50 or 55-45, which is more reliable?

[Smid]

When's the debate?

Also, a 17-18 July Galaxy poll has the parties at 50-50 (a Lib win) on 2PP. So 50-50 or 55-45, which is more reliable?

Both good questions...

As for the polls - I would typically consider both polling companies to be quite reliable, so I can't say which is more accurate... probably best to wait for the next set of polls and see what happens.

As for the debate... I watch the morning news while I get ready for work and they have their election coverage. The commentator was speculating that Labor expects to win the debate and therefore doesn't want it up against ratings winner Masterchef (it's currently scheduled for 7.30pm, Sunday night). Then again, this was in my inbox today, from a political commentator who is generally left-wing:

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[Platypus]

Well, the debate has been brought forward so as not to clash with the Masterchef grand final. I'm going for Callum even though he has no chance. He's like the Democrats. Mum supports Claire who has a strong chance. She's a bit posh and has a double-barrelled surname so fits best as the Liberals. Courtney was eliminated but came back late in the competition, and seems to be a lot of people's second choice, so represents Labor. Adam has never really been tested, and while he is inventive and different it'd be suprising if he won, but not if he did well. Greens. Then there's Jimmy. Nobody likes him, he's basically only good for one thing (curry) and it seems like it's only a matter of time til he's gone, which fits quite well for the Nationals.

[Smid]

he's basically only good for one thing (curry)... fits quite well for the Nationals.

While anyone who has lived in any suburb of any city of Australia has enjoyed a good curry and would consider it fairly mainstream, I don't think the Nats would like anything quite that exotic!

[You kip if you want to...]

I've never known a more overused election slogan.

[Platypus]

Odd campaign so far. It doesn't seem like a real campaign for some reason. Might be because there doesn't seem to be a realistic chance that the government will change. Or because instead of the usual spending spree, both parties seem to be trying to unspend as much as possible. Surprisingly enough, Labor is doing so more efficiently and in smarter ways (not just oh hai let's cut the public service!).

[Mr. Morden]

Nielsen has a new poll with Labor leading the Coalition 54%-46% on the two party preference:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963056.htm

[You kip if you want to...]

Who "won" the debate?

[You kip if you want to...]

54-46 to Labor from the latest AC Nielsen, but Labor's getting destroyed in Queensland.

State-by-state calculator results

87-60 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Since the 1940s, Queensland has usually been one of Labor's worst states at federal level. The 2007 result (only the third time since 1949) had a lot to do with Rudd being from there. The NSW figures are the astonishing ones though; that would be significantly higher than Whitlam at his peak.
But then regional breakdowns are something we should be wary of.

[redcommander]

How much of a chance does Abbott actually have of winning the election?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Who "won" the debate?

David Speers.

How much of a chance does Abbott actually have of winning the election?

The people hate Gillard, but they hate Abbott even more.

[Mr. Morden]

latest Galaxy poll:

link

Primary vote:
Coalition 41
Labor 38
Greens 15

2pp:
Labor 52
Coalition 48

[Platypus]

The debate was probably a slight win for Gillard, but because it was only a slight win some people are saying that means it was a win for Abbott .

[Smid]

The news this morning was reporting that Labor's doing so badly in Queensland, they've asked Rudd to campaign up there outside his own seat. He told them he'd think about it. Of course, they dumped him because they thought he was doing damage and Gillard could do better, so it's a bit ironic that now they're pleading for him to come back on board. The news this evening is reporting that he's been taken to hospital with a "gall bladder emergency" and will be off the campaign trail for the next 2-3 days. I'm wondering how vindictive he might actually be... could he possibly withdraw his nomination five minutes before close of nominations so the ALP hasn't got time to put someone else in (or withdraw his nomination and then lodge a fresh one as an independent) It would certainly be front-page news and would derail Gillard's campaign. Don't know if he's that vindictive, though.

[Harry Hayfield]

If I understand correctly, nominations have now closed, but not yet published?

[You kip if you want to...]

Neilsen
52-48 to the Coalition.

Uh-oh.

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll has it at 50-50, Kevin Rudd didn't even hit that low on Newspoll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newspoll has it at 50-50, Kevin Rudd didn't even hit that low on Newspoll.

No, but then he wasn't removed because of published polls.