Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Harry Hayfield]

What time does coverage start, British time?

The polls close at 6.00pm (I can only assume in each time zones). The Eastern Australian timezone that covers Canberra is 9 hours ahead of the UK, so I am expecting the polls to close at 0800 or 0900 BST.

[redcommander]

I think ABC might be opening theirs up later so ex-pats can watch. Not sure when and - anyway - I might be wrong.

ABC's website says Saturday evening they will stream globally in the evening, but I haven't seen anything live yet on their site.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think ABC might be opening theirs up later so ex-pats can watch. Not sure when and - anyway - I might be wrong.

ABC's website says Saturday evening they will stream globally in the evening, but I haven't seen anything live yet on their site.

Probably their election results programme, which I think starts at 6pm Australian time, 9am UK, and 4am EST.

[Hash]

I better wake up way before 9AM EST (as I usually do) if I want to catch some good ol' election night suspensy-stuff.

[You kip if you want to...]

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hahahaha. what an awfully carried out poll.

[Dan the Roman]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

Its the general pattern of a lot of elections. Built-up resentment tends to bubble up early in campaigns, with the opposition being a convenient outlet. Its at that critical point when the opposition begins to pull ahead that everyone begins to look at them as a potential government rather than an opposition. And a lot of them fail that test. See Stephen Harper in 2004, Mockas in Columbia, and I would argue, even Kerry in the US. Of course if they pass that test you get something resembling the 1980 Presidential race.

[You kip if you want to...]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

Its the general pattern of a lot of elections. Built-up resentment tends to bubble up early in campaigns, with the opposition being a convenient outlet. Its at that critical point when the opposition begins to pull ahead that everyone begins to look at them as a potential government rather than an opposition. And a lot of them fail that test. See Stephen Harper in 2004, Mockas in Columbia, and I would argue, even Kerry in the US. Of course if they pass that test you get something resembling the 1980 Presidential race.

Happened in the UK too I guess, only not so strongly and we ended up with a hung parliament with the opposition as the only viable government. 6-12 months earlier, everyone expected them to walk it and end up with majority of 50-80.

[Dan the Roman]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

Its the general pattern of a lot of elections. Built-up resentment tends to bubble up early in campaigns, with the opposition being a convenient outlet. Its at that critical point when the opposition begins to pull ahead that everyone begins to look at them as a potential government rather than an opposition. And a lot of them fail that test. See Stephen Harper in 2004, Mockas in Columbia, and I would argue, even Kerry in the US. Of course if they pass that test you get something resembling the 1980 Presidential race.

Happened in the UK too I guess, only not so strongly and we ended up with a hung parliament with the opposition as the only viable government. 6-12 months earlier, everyone expected them to walk it and end up with majority of 50-80.

At the time they were polling Labour's unpopularity, rather than Cameron's support. That Cameron was an inoffensive empty suit. It also meant however, that when the focus shifted to him the drop was greater. He clawed it back because of the chaos of the Liberal surge.

[Phony Moderate]

The ABC stream is now working (at least for me). Very good quality too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

[Phony Moderate]

Labor's InTrade numbers have gone from the 60's into the 50's in the past day or so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Britain the worst ratings for the government party usually come mid term rather than at the start of the campaign; the 2005-2010 now stands as a classic in that regard. You actually tend to get a boost for the governing party in the runup to the election.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

We should know most of the results, especially those in NSW and QLD pretty early tonight because of no daylight savings time.

Either way, the Australian people will lose. This campaign has been atrocious. Both sides have clung onto appalling rhetoric of 'real action' and 'moving forward' to no avail. Even if the Mad Monk were to become our 28th Prime Minister tonight, our ignorant electorate still won't be shocked.

In spite of my cynicism, I am hoping for a hung Parliament (it seems likely based on recent numbers out of NSW, QLD and WA). Finally, politics in this country will become interesting again!

[Phony Moderate]

ABC has just said that Morgan has conducted an exit poll of some sort, which suggests a 51/49 split to Labor and a hung parliament.

[ilikeverin]

The ABC stream is now working (at least for me). Very good quality too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

Gorgeous.  And authentic Australian accents!

EDIT: Hehehe, President Obammer.

EDIT 2: Did the ABC news guy just pronounce "mantra" with the first syllable identical to that in "man"?  lolololol.  wtf Australian English, stop being more American than American English.  Okay, I'll stop now.

[redcommander]

ABC has just said that Morgan has conducted an exit poll of some sort, which suggests a 51/49 split to Labor and a hung parliament.

That would certainly be an interesting result. Of course a minority government for either party would be better than entering a coalition with the Greens.