Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TheReckoning]

Remember, when the U.S. first sent military troops to Vietnam, they did so under the guise of sending “advisors.” This story has been told many times before.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Remember, when the U.S. first sent military troops to Vietnam, they did so under the guise of sending “advisors.” This story has been told many times before.

The one thing to wonder is do the French tell the Russians where they are located. If they don't, the Russians could attack a Ukrainian base and oops, some French soldiers we didn't know were there officially died. What now? If they do tell, the Russians will have more knowledge about targeting that particular Ukrainian base.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Remember, when the U.S. first sent military troops to Vietnam, they did so under the guise of sending “advisors.” This story has been told many times before.

The one thing to wonder is do the French tell the Russians where they are located. If they don't, the Russians could attack a Ukrainian base and oops, some French soldiers we didn't know were there officially died. What now? If they do tell, the Russians will have more knowledge about targeting that particular Ukrainian base.

Yeah that would be relevant.

[Storr]

"Russia plans to change its flat-rate tax for the first time in over 20 years. Until now, it has been 13 per cent for everyone, with a few exceptions. Now the ministry of finance is proposing that it should be between 13 and 22 per cent

The war won’t finance itself after all "

"Russia’s Finance Ministry has submitted legislation that would reintroduce progressive taxes on personal income. According to the newspaper Kommersant, which obtained a copy of the draft amendments, the progressive scale would begin with annual incomes exceeding 2.4 million rubles ($27,100) with the following brackets as income rises:

From 2.4 million to 5 million rubles ($55,445) — 15 percent
From 5 million to 20 million rubles ($225,785) — 18 percent
From 20 million to 50 million rubles ($564,460) — 20 percent
More than 50 million rubles — 22 percent

Higher tax rates would apply only to income earned within the stated brackets, not to the entire earnings. All earnings below the 2.4-million-ruble threshold would remain taxed at the current rate of 13 percent. Salaries and benefits paid to soldiers fighting in the invasion of Ukraine would not be factored into the new progressive income taxes."

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1795442562221949387?s=12
Nice 🇺🇦

[Storr]

"Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦.

ASC 890 will provide 🇺🇦 with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. 🇺🇦 capability to identify targets at long range will be strengthened. They will act as a force multiplier with the introduction of F-16. AMRAAMs will also be donated.

Sweden will also donate its entire stock of armoured tracked personnel carriers (PBV 302) to support the reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades. Sweden will also donate artillery ammunition and resources for maintenance of previously donated materiel.

[According to Rob Lee: "In 2018, Sweden had 180 PBV 302 APCs in storage in varying states of condition. Ukraine needs large quantities of armored vehicles, and even older APCs will be very useful. (h/t@The_Lookout_N)
https://regeringen.se/globalassets/regeringen/dokument/forsvarsdepartementet/sou/sou-7-2018.pdf"]

Sweden will also deliver surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces, maintenance of previously
donated Swedish materiel, financial support to capability coalitions and to funds and temporary initiatives to enable swift and large-scale procurement of materiel to Ukraine.

The Swedish Defence Research Agency will also be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defence research institute.

Furthermore, Ukraine’s command and control capability will be strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications."

- Minister for Defense of Sweden Pål Jonson

[Storr]

"Shortly after turning 18 in February, Daniil Yermolenko fulfilled a long-held wish and signed a contract with Russia’s armed forces. A month later, he voted for the first time, casting a ballot in the presidential election for Vladimir Putin, who had already been in power for six years when Yermolenko was born in 2006.

By late March Yermolenko had completed a basic two-week military training, and he was sent to Berdychi in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces were engaged in a devastating assault as part of its spring offensive.

There, on 4 April, during a storming of a Ukrainian position, Yermolenko found himself separated from his unit, surrounded by intense enemy fire. Before losing contact, Yermolenko reportedly radioed his base: “This is it guys. I am doomed.”

Last week his family and friends gathered in a small town in central Russia to receive Yermolenko’s casket, which was draped in the Russian flag. A military orchestra presided over the ceremony where the casket was lowered into the ground.

Yermolenko is the only recorded Russian casualty so far to have been born in 2006, making him the youngest known soldier to have died since Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine more than two years ago."



"Thousands of young Russians, often referred to as “Generation P” for having lived only under Putin’s presidency, have died fighting in Ukraine. Mediazona, a Russian outlet that tracks war casualties using open sources, has identified nearly 5,000 soldiers under the age of 24 who have died in the war, including 1,400 under the age of 20. The real toll is likely to be much higher, the outlet says.

Russia portrays these fallen men, many of whom hail from the hinterlands, as heroes. And the Kremlin has gone to great lengths to make sure many more young people join the fighting as Putin seeks to re-engineer the country into a militarised society."



"Ever since Putin came to power in 2000, the Russian government has attempted to impose a state ideology on its young people, investing heavily in pro-government youth organisations. But for years these efforts seemed to be failing, with young Russians often at the forefront of pro-democracy protests and topping polls expressing anti-government sentiments.

The war in Ukraine, however, gave the Kremlin a renewed momentum to indoctrinate teenagers with Putin’s highly aggressive and anti-western version of patriotism.

“We are waging at least three wars,” said Sergei Novikov, a senior Kremlin bureaucrat, in July 2023. “There is the war on the frontlines. There is the economic war. And the third war is an ideological war … a war for the minds of the youth.”

Russia has dramatically increased its spending on patriotic education and state-run militarised groups for children and teens, from £25m in 2021 to more than £382m in 2024. Since the onset of the conflict, public school textbooks have been rewritten to align with the Kremlin’s foreign policy, reflecting Russia’s interpretation of history that emphasises the need to reclaim “historical territories” lost to Ukraine."

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1796117561240662213?s=12
Hahahahaha

[Storr]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

[Virginiá]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

This is something but it's way narrower than Ukraine can make use of. The bare minimum here is the ability to hit military targets 50 - 60km from the border inside Russia. Otherwise, Russia is going to continue staging forces and weapons all along the border and using them against Ukraine. What is to stop them from invading Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts again? By these rules, Ukraine would have to just sit there, watching them assemble on the Russian side, just like Kharkiv. It's nuts.

/rant

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

Better late than never I guess.

[NOVA Green]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

This is something but it's way narrower than Ukraine can make use of. The bare minimum here is the ability to hit military targets 50 - 60km from the border inside Russia. Otherwise, Russia is going to continue staging forces and weapons all along the border and using them against Ukraine. What is to stop them from invading Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts again? By these rules, Ukraine would have to just sit there, watching them assemble on the Russian side, just like Kharkiv. It's nuts.

/rant

Although it has been a long time since I have posted on this thread, should also add there is an NYT story on this as well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-weapons.html

Cut off my WaPo and WSJ subscription awhile back to cut back on a few expenses, but suspect they will also have similar articles.

Although not really a focus of any of these articles, it should be noted that many Americans, especially Republican or Republican Leaning including elected FED elected officials, are increasingly turning against support for Ukraine.

[President Johnson]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

And ... Germany just followed, Scholz Government just issued permission to strike military targets inside Russia with German weapons:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1796467331327017387

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

This is something but it's way narrower than Ukraine can make use of. The bare minimum here is the ability to hit military targets 50 - 60km from the border inside Russia. Otherwise, Russia is going to continue staging forces and weapons all along the border and using them against Ukraine. What is to stop them from invading Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts again? By these rules, Ukraine would have to just sit there, watching them assemble on the Russian side, just like Kharkiv. It's nuts.

/rant

With the precedent now set for Ukraine being able to strike on internationally recognized Russian territory, I think it's only a matter of time before any further guardrails (short of like, hitting the Kremlin or something) get tossed out as the useless relics they are. Once the fears of "escalation" are again proven wrong, every subsequent step becomes easier. I don't think Ukraine is going to be fighting with its hands tied for long.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

And ... Germany just followed, Scholz Government just issued permission to strike military targets inside Russia with German weapons:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1796467331327017387

Sometimes it's unclear what Scholz' Ukraine strategy, if any, would be if he hadn't Biden as President.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally:

""The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons"

“'The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them,' a U.S. official confirmed," @ErinBanco
 
https://politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731"

And ... Germany just followed, Scholz Government just issued permission to strike military targets inside Russia with German weapons:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1796467331327017387

Sometimes it's unclear what Scholz' Ukraine strategy, if any, would be if he hadn't Biden as President.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der

[Hindsight was 2020]

An right on cue
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1796664803890483462?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBPth...

[Virginiá]

With the precedent now set for Ukraine being able to strike on internationally recognized Russian territory, I think it's only a matter of time before any further guardrails (short of like, hitting the Kremlin or something) get tossed out as the useless relics they are. Once the fears of "escalation" are again proven wrong, every subsequent step becomes easier. I don't think Ukraine is going to be fighting with its hands tied for long.

Given the way the Biden admin has currently been operating, which has been to incrementally lift their restrictions to manage escalation, they'll probably eventually allow Ukraine to hit targets across the entire Russian border.

But the reason it's frustrating (to me, anyway) is because while this might manage fears of escalation for the administration, it also gives Russia plenty of time to adapt. For example, right now, they have been observed putting up hangars on their airfields across Western Russia, as their planes were previously exposed and vulnerable to cluster bomb strikes. Now it won't be easy for Ukraine to hit their airfields, if they are ever given that ability. They'll need far more missiles to do what a few cluster missiles could have done.

A smaller, less resourced country like Ukraine needs all the advantages it can get, and a staple of warfare is to take advantage of vulnerabilities before the enemy can react & adapt. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the allies' method of managing escalation strips away nearly every opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities by signaling to Russia what is going on and letting them adapt.

[Storr]

With the precedent now set for Ukraine being able to strike on internationally recognized Russian territory, I think it's only a matter of time before any further guardrails (short of like, hitting the Kremlin or something) get tossed out as the useless relics they are. Once the fears of "escalation" are again proven wrong, every subsequent step becomes easier. I don't think Ukraine is going to be fighting with its hands tied for long.

Given the way the Biden admin has currently been operating, which has been to incrementally lift their restrictions to manage escalation, they'll probably eventually allow Ukraine to hit targets across the entire Russian border.

But the reason it's frustrating (to me, anyway) is because while this might manage fears of escalation for the administration, it also gives Russia plenty of time to adapt. For example, right now, they have been observed putting up hangars on their airfields across Western Russia, as their planes were previously exposed and vulnerable to cluster bomb strikes. Now it won't be easy for Ukraine to hit their airfields, if they are ever given that ability. They'll need far more missiles to do what a few cluster missiles could have done.

A smaller, less resourced country like Ukraine needs all the advantages it can get, and a staple of warfare is to take advantage of vulnerabilities before the enemy can react & adapt. Unfortunately for Ukraine, the allies' method of managing escalation strips away nearly every opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities by signaling to Russia what is going on and letting them adapt.

"I've spent the day with a member of a Kharkiv based military unit that is involved in the fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

I asked what the impact on the Russian offensive would've been if U.S. restrictions had been lifted earlier.

The answer? It would've been impossible.

The Ukrainians knew exactly where Russian troops were massing, knew exactly where Russian logistics and artillery bases were sited.

They were virtually all in range of M142 HIMARS firing GMLRS rockets. But as we know, they couldn't engage, and the rest is now history.

Because of decisions made in Western capitals, the Russian offensive went ahead, an unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are dead and wounded, and Vovchansk now lies in ruins.

All of this could have been prevented had sanity prevailed earlier."

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the thing that's really inexplicable (and inexcusable) with the Biden administration's handling of these issue is why they feel the need to make these big public announcements instead of quietly giving Ukraine the go-ahead and only confirming afterwards that they'd done so with his blessing. The advantage of having the element of surprise should be obvious.

In the long run Russia is going to find adaptations to changes in the battlefield dynamics one way or the other, but of course those adaptations are going to be less efficient than them being able to strike right across the border with impunity. Every strategic gain by Ukraine is a win.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1796998318624481346
👀

[HillGoose]

Remember, when the U.S. first sent military troops to Vietnam, they did so under the guise of sending “advisors.” This story has been told many times before.

hell yeah it did, LFGl!! its about time the coalition of the willing stepped in to defend liberty in Eastern Europe, the russkis will not stop until they are forced to do so.

[Storr]

"Frontelligence Insight is documenting significant movements of enemy reserves, involving hundreds of military vehicles of various types. This likely indicates that the Russians are preparing for another serious push. Russian offensive is unlikely to conclude soon"

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1797637648821166181

[Woody]

"Frontelligence Insight is documenting significant movements of enemy reserves, involving hundreds of military vehicles of various types. This likely indicates that the Russians are preparing for another serious push. Russian offensive is unlikely to conclude soon"

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1797637648821166181

Russians initiating phase II of the Kharkiv offensive?