2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is Lean D with Moreno and MD is a tossup it's not Safe D and NEB is a tossup the balance of power is 48/49/3 with MT, MD, NEB as balance of power. Why do they have MD Safe D, Alsobrooks isn't gonna win by 10 her and Tester are gonna win narrowly and so is OSBORN

[wbrocks67]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

CLF also doesn't seem to be spending anything in PA-17 either, which is interesting.

[SnowLabrador]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

To be fair, downballot Democrats aren't getting dragged down by Biden's toxicity...yet. I'm skeptical of a 20-point gap, but I think Rosen could match her 2018 margin and Biden would still lose the state by 5 points.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cook moves SC-01 to Safe R after the SCOTUS ruling.

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1794086840753938546

[wbrocks67]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

[Tekken_Guy]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

I know people will call me a hack for this but I really do think Trump is being overestimated in most polling. I still think he narrowly wins in the end unfortunately, but not by as much as we're seeing now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

Luna is an atrocious candidate, on par with Boebert

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

Luna is an atrocious candidate, on par with Boebert

Also, unlike in SC-1, Democrats actually have a seemingly somewhat stronger than expected wave insurance candidate in FL-13 (still nothing amazing, but about two rungs above the generic some dude she initially appeared to be).  Mace is a very weak incumbent who may or may not have genuine mental health issues and is at her core basically a really trashy redneck sorority airhead (which isn’t the best fit for her district), but she is now in a Republican enough district that she’s basically safe for the time being in a GE despite being (to quote South Park) something out of a stereotype coloring book.  I think she’d have lost in the old district lines to an A-list opponent, but she’s not going to draw any serious GE opposition right now. 

By contrast, Luna is so unhinged and ideologically out of sync with her district (as opposed to Mace, who is stylistically out of touch, but ideologically bipolar and strikes me as a Ron Johnson type who talks very, very, very differently to her constituents/Charleston local media than she does in Congress or in front of national media or at out-of-district events) that she [Luna] almost lost in 2022 to a pretty unheralded Democratic sacrificial lamb.  At her core, Luna is an unhinged MAGA nutjob and it really shows.  Incidentally, I’d argue that a stronger Democratic candidate almost certainly would’ve beaten her in 2022.  I think Democrats made a mistake by not rubbing anyone more serious than wave insurance here, but who knows what the internal polling showed. 

[Tekken_Guy]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

I know people will call me a hack for this but I really do think Trump is being overestimated in most polling. I still think he narrowly wins in the end unfortunately, but not by as much as we're seeing now.

If Trump is being overestimated then he’d likely lose since he’s barely up in the three rust belt states.

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

Luna is an atrocious candidate, on par with Boebert

Also, unlike in SC-1, Democrats actually have a seemingly somewhat stronger than expected wave insurance candidate in FL-13 (still nothing amazing, but about two rungs above the generic some dude she initially appeared to be).  Mace is a very weak incumbent who may or may not have genuine mental health issues and is at her core basically a really trashy redneck sorority airhead (which isn’t the best fit for her district), but she is now in a Republican enough district that she’s basically safe for the time being in a GE despite being (to quote South Park) something out of a stereotype coloring book.  I think she’d have lost in the old district lines to an A-list opponent, but she’s not going to draw any serious GE opposition right now.  

By contrast, Luna is so unhinged and ideologically out of sync with her district (as opposed to Mace, who is stylistically out of touch, but ideologically bipolar and strikes me as a Ron Johnson type who talks very, very, very differently to her constituents/Charleston local media than she does in Congress or in front of national media or at out-of-district events) that she [Luna] almost lost in 2022 to a pretty unheralded Democratic sacrificial lamb.  At her core, Luna is an unhinged MAGA nutjob and it really shows.  Incidentally, I’d argue that a stronger Democratic candidate almost certainly would’ve beaten her in 2022.  I think Democrats made a mistake by not rubbing anyone more serious than wave insurance here, but who knows what the internal polling showed.  

Mace’s district is bluer than Peltola’s and about on par with Boebert’s current seat, and only a couple points redder than her old one. It wasn’t a dramatic shoring up like Stephanie Bice or Burgess Owens got.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

You have to weigh house races for incumbency. If you look at the raw result from 2020, then yeah you get a different picture, but in reality there is going to be enough Biden voters that are fine with Mace. This is the same reason why Kaptur is comfortably favored despite Trump likely going to win the district again.