Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Raphael Warnock is a danger to the nation
https://twitter.com/KLoeffler/status/1326886285492056066?s=19

Jeremiah Wright? The Republican attack plan is to bring up Jeremiah f^ckin Wright? I can't believe its 2008 again

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

No, Taylor Greene is just what Republicans like to pretend AOC/Omar/Waters are for the Democrats: emblematic of where the Party really stands and what they really believe.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Can we get off Steve Daines and move on to the actual race? Cool.

Anyway, 2 dozen black pastors decided that it was sooo important to send Warnock an open letter requesting he switch to being pro-life cause y’know the most important thing in this election during a pandemic and economic collapse is abortion 🙄.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Anyone else find it a bit concerning that Clarke, Muscogee, and Chatham counties have pretty poor numbers thus far? I know some counties are slower at reporting than others, but these counties are home to 3 mid-sized cities which all played a great role in Biden's victory.

Yes that is troubling, but I'm not sure how early the votes started coming in for those counties for the GE. Looks like for the GE those counties consisted of X% of their total vote done early (In-person + mail combined)

Chatham: 70%
Clarke: 80%
Muscogee: 81%

Chatham has 20K votes in so far, and had 92K in the GE
Clarke has 4K votes in so far, and had 41K in the GE
Muscogee has 11K votes in so far, and had 65K in the GE

After checking it out when you mentioned, it looks like Chatham is lagging the GE the least. We'll see how they look after some souls to the polls Sundays... I haven't checked which counties have been ahead of the ball for mail in ballots either and which are lagging but will catch up.

I can say that Clarke county might not be a problem. UGA had early voting and Election Day voting on campus for the General so that students would be able to vote. Students were discouraged from coming back after Thanksgiving break and will likely be voting at home, so they may account for a good amount of the difference this time around.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

much better

“Ossoff obstructed, Purdue delivered”

... Jon Ossoff isn’t even in Congress and most people know that. What’s the logic behind this ad?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I might just be a political oddball but I do actually care about the deficit and responsible spending and I'm not convinced a blanket $2,000 stimulus check is good policy. I'd much prefer the Dems take some time to lay out all the different options for stimulating the economy (e.g., infrastructure spending, tax credits for parents that need child care for the pandemic), rather than just jump on the more checks for everyone train.

We're in a recession, the deficit doesn't matter right now (and barely matters during times of economic expansion). The best stimulus for this pandemic would be lockdowns coupled with direct aid to businesses to keep them open and direct checks to families/individuals so that they can afford to stay home and keep the virus in check.

Half the population is working from home already according to the polls and doing better financially than ever. Do they really need direct checks?

I disagree the deficit doesn't matter. We're financing all of this in the form of debt that carries interest that the Government will have to pay each year until that debt is paid off.

Who says we have to pay?

Well, as I see it, there are 3 options:

1) Government borrows more money to pay off the interest, resulting in ever higher interest payments. This just kicks the can down the road for options 2 and 3 below.

2) Government cuts spending or increases taxes to pay off the debt. I imagine both would be just as politically unpopular as the stimulus checks might be popular.

3) Government defaults on the debt or prints money to pay off the debt. See Venezuela for why this is a bad idea - hyperinflation, currency would become worthless, bank runs.

I actually agree with you. But during times like these is exactly when we need to be running up the deficit and ignoring it as a concern. We'll do Option 2 when the recovery has finished. And we should have been doing so from 2017-March 2020 so that we wouldn't have to worry as much about the deficit/debt now.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks? McConnell may be the most hated man in America right now and relief checks have like 80% approval. Hammer it home that a “vote for us” is a vote for 2k checks, and that voting for the Rs mean more obstruction from Mitch, especially in rural GA areas. Ive seen tons of R voters angry over this, so it seems like a free gimme for Dems that they aren’t utilizing.

They already are. They started the day Trump tweeted out support in that video

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Final prediction:

Perdue (R) wins the regular senate race by +0.8 points
Loeffler (R) wins the special senate race by +0.7 points

The margins are so close these are low confidence, and I wouldn't bet any money on it.  I give Republicans a roughly 60% chance of winning both races.

Hard to believe this is tomorrow!! Will be fun to watch.

This is about the outcome I’m expecting as well, though I’d be ecstatic to be proven wrong. It’s really all up to how many of those rurals show up tomorrow.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1346565943393193988

Is Cherokee County rural? I was under the impression it was mostly suburban.

Houston isn't really rural, either. It's small-city.

Yeah I’m from there... we’re definitely not a rural county. We’re conservative, yeah, but Biden performed pretty well there.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Can we all just put MillennialModerate on ignore and stop clogging up the thread with his quotes

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

https://twitter.com/dcdufour/status/1346873659898654721

Did he forget about Jimmy Carter?

Jimmy Carter lost but the Dems were able to hold the House. However, Bush in 1992 lost the WH, Senate and House also.

Democrats had the Senate and House for Bush's entire term, so it's not the same.

Well, the Dems in 1932 retained the majority they gained in 1930.

The tweet says in a single term, not a single election. Hoover lost the House in 1930 and the Senate & Presidency in 1932. Trump lost the House in 2018, the Presidency in 2020, and the Senate in 2021.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So...is Georgia Virginia 2.0?

I'd say it's a pure toss-up for now, lean D if the current partisan alignment trends remain the same. The swing in Georgia wasn't quite as drastic as VA, a small drop-off in Democratic turnout in a post-Trump era could easily flip it back. Whereas flipping Virginia, even in 2012 or 2016, would have required flipping Obama voters. And suppressing turnout is a lot easier than convincing voters of the other party to flip.

This. Our wins in GA have been based on a combination of growth in support from the previously-Republican suburbs and increased minority participation, the latter of which could decrease at any time and the former who could switch back at any time. The wins in VA have been built almost entirely off of the NoVA region, which is liberal & highly educated and therefore very likely to vote in elections.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I think people are overestimating how fast GA is moving left. States don’t always trend linearly, I bet this state will still be highly competitive until at least 2026. Warnock may not even be the favorite for 2022 at this point.

Even Virginia was competitive for 8+ years

I agree. VA Republicans still had one last hurrah in the 2009 gubernatorial election, and were competitive in the 2012 Presidential Election and 2013 gubernatorial.

2022 will be competitive in GA, as will 2024.