Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks? McConnell may be the most hated man in America right now and relief checks have like 80% approval. Hammer it home that a “vote for us” is a vote for 2k checks, and that voting for the Rs mean more obstruction from Mitch, especially in rural GA areas. Ive seen tons of R voters angry over this, so it seems like a free gimme for Dems that they aren’t utilizing.

They already are. They started the day Trump tweeted out support in that video

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

Based on the Counties, is this a small advantage for Dems or Republicans? (I'm guessing any time EV is open its good for Dems, regardless of the County?)

The counties that ended today were Bibb, Butts, Candler, Fulton, Pickens, Taylor, and Upson.

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks?

You should have stopped there. They have made this a huge issue. Loeffler and Perdue didn't come out in support of the $2,000 checks for nothing.

[forsythvoter]

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks? McConnell may be the most hated man in America right now and relief checks have like 80% approval. Hammer it home that a “vote for us” is a vote for 2k checks, and that voting for the Rs mean more obstruction from Mitch, especially in the poorer rural areas. Ive seen tons of R voters angry over this, so it seems like a free gimme for Dems that they aren’t utilizing.

I guess I'm part of the 20% here but I will acknowledge that this issue seems to have taken on a life of its own. To the extent anyone I knew was talking about politics over Christmas, it was about whether they were going to get $2k checks. I'm frankly surprised the Rs haven't done more to explain that this isn't "free money" and will need to be paid back.

[roxas11]

Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

wow fox news walked right into that one......


Ossoff repsonser here was so masterful that he now has Klansman trending on twitter lol

honestly I had no idea that Loeffler has Been running around With a KKK memeber. this is very damaging info about her and I imagine many Dems will follow Ossoff lead and bring this up everytime they try to smear Warnock

[forza nocta]

Is today, tomorrow, or Friday the last day of early vote?

Today & tomorrow, depending on the county.

Based on the Counties, is this a small advantage for Dems or Republicans? (I'm guessing any time EV is open its good for Dems, regardless of the County?)

The counties that ended today were Bibb, Butts, Candler, Fulton, Pickens, Taylor, and Upson.

I dont live in GA so its hard for me to tell, but why aren’t Warnock and Ossoff making this runoff more of a referendum on McConnell and relief checks?

You should have stopped there. They have made this a huge issue. Loeffler and Perdue didn't come out in support of the $2,000 checks for nothing.

Okay that's good to hear, if true. Was just wondering.

[tallguy23]

Ossoff is GOOD. Wow.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1344325319470305280

This made me wet.

[Matty]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock has skeletons but both Loeffler and Perdue dumped stocks during the Covid 19 crisis

[Roll Roons]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

The early voting data does look promising for Democrats, but never forget that Bitecofer claimed TX-02 was Likely D. I'd take what she says with a huge grain of salt.

[MT Treasurer]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

literally the first rule of politics: don't predict elections based on early voting.

I cannot believe you exprienced the 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections and still think early voting can predict outcomes.

[WD]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

literally the first rule of politics: don't predict elections based on early voting.

I cannot believe you exprienced the 2014, 2016, and 2020 elections and still think early voting can predict outcomes.

Also imagine taking Rachel Bitcofer seriously, lol

[Motorcity]

I know it would take 60 votes to pass, but doesn't take a simple majority to force a floor vote? Or are the Republicans who support the stimulus to scared of Moscow Mitch to side with Democrats and force a floor vote.

[roxas11]

Warnock has skeletons but both Loeffler and Perdue dumped stocks during the Covid 19 crisis

So Let Me Get This Straight

A 2016 lawsuit accused then a candidate Donald Trump of raping a 13 year old girl and he was accused of assaulting all of these woman....



yet many of the same people who ignored all of that and voted for him anyway now suddenly want us all to care about the skeletons in Warnock closet lol

[Virginiá]

Also imagine taking Rachel Bitcofer seriously, lol

She literally got her time in the spotlight by posting non-stop in the Twitter feeds of high-profile election analysts and other ET people. With that in mind, it's not terribly surprising to see how things have played out up to now.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

Friends don't let Friends take Bitecoffer Seriously, she's the worst Dem Hack out there speaking as a dem hack.

[gf20202]

I am sure this has been reported on but how will this Georgie vote count go in terms of what is processed first. Will this be similar to election night where it was red early and then later vote dumps were bluer and the question is if the republicans can max out on E-Day vote enough to hold on or is it the opposite?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Not sure how McConnell thinks blocking the $2K aid will help Perdue/Loeffler. Warnock/Ossoff can continue to slam the GOP as out of touch, and the GOP not willing to give any more aid.

McConnell is more concerned about the sure bet of delaying economic recovery under President Biden vs. the maybe of helping Loeffler and Perdue with this $2k aid when it's not clear they will need or benefit from the move.

Trickle up economics is the way to go. You build from the bottom up, a $2000 dollar check will help small businesses much more than a tax cut.

The poor/working class/middle class will spend their money and small businesses are the most likely to benefit. Corporate tax cuts are almost all going to stock buybacks.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bitecoffer said today she has never analyzed a race before where the ev was so good for one party and  that party ended up losing

In fact, I would argue the ev for dems in these Georgia races is better than any ev data in any election since 2014

Bitecofer is kind of a Dem hack; she does have some interesting ideas but really missed the mark this cycle with her forecasts.

I personally think that the only 2 things the early vote numbers indicate with relative certainty is:

-This won't be a redux of the 2008 Senate race
-Democrats are doing better in the early vote than in the GE

Just remember though that because they're doing well now may mean that the GOP does even better with the in person vote and it's enough to cancel it out. It's really difficult to tell because this election is polarized heavily by even the method in which people vote.

[Adam Griffin]

I am sure this has been reported on but how will this Georgie vote count go in terms of what is processed first. Will this be similar to election night where it was red early and then later vote dumps were bluer and the question is if the republicans can max out on E-Day vote enough to hold on or is it the opposite?

"Smaller and more Republican counties -> larger and more Democratic counties" along with "Election Day vote -> early in-person vote -> mail vote" will be the general order of the evening. However and with 159 different counties, that doesn't mean all statewide in-person vote will be in before any mail vote, etc. Also very important: the city of Atlanta (5% of the state's vote and 10% of the Democratic vote) closes its polls one hour later than the rest of the state.

So yes, Georgia has a counting bias that favors Republicans early in the evening, with it being a case of whether or not Democrats can overcome those margins as more and more Democratic vote is counted (similar to VA). When there's 1 or 2% of the vote in, don't be surprised if the GOP leads 65-35 or whatever.  

2020 did have a break with historical trends - at least in the early stages of vote count:

[SCNCmod]

Has the updated EV count been posted for today (Wednesday)?

[Tender Branson]

Has the updated EV count been posted for today (Wednesday)?

Yes, but it includes only numbers until and including Tuesday:

VBM accepted is now officially less white than the GE. In person continues to inch up, but we're getting closer and closer and it's still significantly less white (32 to 25)

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white
12/21: 1.47M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/22: 1.68M (54.8% white, 31.9% black) —> +22.9 white
12/23: 1.88M (55.0% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.4 white
12/24: 2.06M (55.5% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.0 white
12/25: 2.07M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/27: 2.10M (55.4% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.9 white
12/28: 2.13M (55.2% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.6 white
12/29: 2.34M (55.2% white, 31.5% black) —> +23.7 white
12/30: 2.60M (55.4% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.1 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white
12/21: 1.32M (51.7% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.3 white
12/22: 1.33M (51.6% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.1 white
12/23: 1.34M (51.5% white, 32.5% black) —> +19.0 white
12/24: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/25: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/27: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/28: 1.35M (51.6% white, 32.7% black) —> +18.9 white
12/29: 1.36M (51.5% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.7 white
12/30: 1.37M (51.4% white, 32.8% black) —> +18.6 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white
12/21: 570K (55.5% white, 31.3% black) —> +24.2 white
12/22: 621K (55.4% white, 31.2% black) —> +24.2 white
12/23: 679K (54.9% white, 31.4% black) —> +23.5 white
12/24: 722K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/25: 725K (54.9% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.3 white
12/27: 735K (54.8% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.2 white
12/28: 748K (54.7% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.1 white
12/29: 802K (54.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +22.9 white
12/30: 856K (54.2% white, 31.8% black) —> +22.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white
12/21: 902K (53.8% white, 33.1% black) —> +20.7 white
12/22: 1.06M (54.4% white, 32.4% black) —> +22.0 white
12/23: 1.21M (55.0% white, 31.7% black) —-> +23.3 white
12/24: 1.34M (55.9% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.4 white
12/25: 1.35M (55.8% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.3 white
12/27: 1.36M (55.7% white, 31.5% black) —> +24.2 white
12/28: 1.38M (55.5% white, 31.6% black) —> +23.9 white
12/29: 1.54M (55.6% white, 31.4% black) —> +24.2 white
12/30: 1.71M (56.0% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.0 white

It's pretty likely that the total early vote will be around 3.5 million in the end with the Monday and Tuesday updates.

[SCNCmod]

Ossoff said on "The Last Word" that young voters have shattered voting participation records, etc.  He said a list of several demographics that have shattered records-

Did he just get carried away by including young voters... or has there really been strong turnout among young voters (I thought I saw somewhere that youth vote was down a fair amount)?

[Adam Griffin]

Ossoff said on "The Last Word" that young voters have shattered voting participation records, etc.  He said a list of several demographics that have shattered records-

Did he just get carried away by including young voters... or has there really been strong turnout among young voters (I thought I saw somewhere that youth vote was down a fair amount)?

Among early voters in November, the 18-29 demographic was somewhere in the 10.x% range; as of Tuesday's vote, they were at 11%, so that's likely accurate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a close Election 51/49 race, but the 2K checks have damaged the well for the Rs since Loeffler and Perdue supported it and didn't lift a finger to stop Mcconnell from objections to the 2K amount.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PriscillaWT/status/1344623101036912643