Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[wbrocks67]

Perdue refusing to do any debates with Ossoff.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

No, Taylor Greene is just what Republicans like to pretend AOC/Omar/Waters are for the Democrats: emblematic of where the Party really stands and what they really believe.

[JMT]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I just realized that the runoff elections will take place on January 5th, but the rest of the 117th congress takes office on January 3rd. Does this mean that Perdue’s seat will technically be vacant for a few days until the runoff takes place? And if it’s really close (and heads to a recount or something), would it possibly be vacant for a couple weeks?

I believe Loeffler will be able to stay in her seat regardless of how long the ballot counting takes, since she was appointed until the special election concludes, but I’m thinking Perdue’s seat may have to be vacant till the results are known since 2020 was the regularly scheduled election. Am I correct here, or am I missing something?

[wbrocks67]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

If AOC or "The squad" are far left, how is MTG not extreme far right?

[JMT]

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but I just realized that the runoff elections will take place on January 5th, but the rest of the 117th congress takes office on January 3rd. Does this mean that Perdue’s seat will technically be vacant for a few days until the runoff takes place? And if it’s really close (and heads to a recount or something), would it possibly be vacant for a couple weeks?

I believe Loeffler will be able to stay in her seat regardless of how long the ballot counting takes, since she was appointed until the special election concludes, but I’m thinking Perdue’s seat may have to be vacant till the results are known since 2020 was the regularly scheduled election. Am I correct here, or am I missing something?

I now see this was mentioned earlier in the thread, my apologies. It sounds like Kemp could appoint Perdue to the vacancy, I didn't think of that. I wonder if that will happen, or if the seat will just be left vacant?

[wbrocks67]

Seems to have gone unnoticed but Klain announced on Meet the Press this morning that Biden will be campaigning in GA ahead of the runoffs.

Interesting. I was expecting just Kamala and Barack (maybe Michelle?) but at this point, gotta go full court press. Things will get very interesting, especially if Trump decides not to show up.

[Pollster]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

Sorry, but comparing Maxine Waters (a longtime community servant who would've probably gone unrecognizable in a lineup before 2017, when right-wing media caricatured her as a typical "angry Black woman") to MTG (a carpetbagger who owes her political career to her support of a conspiracy theory about Satan-worshipping pedophiles that has already motivated domestic terror attempts and is far more toxic than the left wing of the Democratic party) is among the stupidest non-olawakandi takes I've read on this forum.

[wbrocks67]

Pulled our first survey of this race out of the field this morning, which of course means I'm working on the weekend. This poll was conducted half before the Warnock oppo dump and half after. Broad generalities, as usual:

-Toplines are close in both races, and fairly similar to the toplines from our first survey of the 2018 Secretary of State runoff.
-Self-ID Democrats are far more enthused to vote in the runoff than self-ID Republicans, which is a total flip from the numbers we saw in the general. However, Republicans still rate their likelihood to vote higher than Democrats, so the effect here seems to be a wash.
-Democrats are more likely to say that their party controlling the Senate in 2021 is very or somewhat important than Republicans.
-A plurality thinks that an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably be a good thing for the country, and modest majorities think an evenly divided Senate would definitely or probably help unite the country and generate bipartisan cooperation.
-Warnock is in a far stronger position than Ossoff and leads Loeffler on all of the important candidate qualities (cares about people like me, is honest and trustworthy, shares my values, has the right qualifications and temperament). Ossoff is really struggling with qualifications and temperament and we are expecting "has a bright future, but just isn't ready yet"-style attacks.
-"Defund the police" is still a big problem for Democrats. Court packing, Green New Deal, and filibuster abolishment are not, and none fit into successful anti-Dem narratives the way that defunding the police does.
-QAnon and Marjorie Taylor Greene are massive problems for Loeffler (particularly among college educated and high income folks). Perdue doesn't have this problem (yet), another reason why he's much better positioned at this time. The issue for Dems will be working QAnon/MTG into a broader narrative against Loeffler effectively (something the party is famously bad at).
-Self-ID Republicans are split almost evenly on whether Trump should "remain in politics and run for President again" or "remain in politics but support a different candidate who shares his views." A good chunk say "retire from politics altogether," mostly Republican youth.

This was really great - thanks so much for this.

From what you've seen so far, do you think there are a decent # of ticket splitters or do you foresee it ending up being D/D or R/R?

Hoping Ossoff can make up some ground, surprised he's not doing well in temperament? I could see experience just b/c he's never held office before. Are Perdue's favorables good?

[Pollster]

1) Do you have any way of gauging whether or not the poll indicates that Black turnout in the runoff will be proportionally higher than the general election % of voters (Due to the potential of Georgia's 1st black Senator?

2) Any indication regarding likely method of voting among various demographics?

3) Any idea or indication regarding what % of general election voters are expected to vote in the runoff?

Unfortunately not, for all three. The first is a major wild card that we'd normally rely on on-the-ground numbers for, and eventually early voting/VBM data. The second we can always ask about (and probably will in future tracking surveys) but didn't here. The third we can model as soon as the 2020 voting data is made available on the voter file, which we're expecting soon.

From what you've seen so far, do you think there are a decent # of ticket splitters or do you foresee it ending up being D/D or R/R?

Hoping Ossoff can make up some ground, surprised he's not doing well in temperament? I could see experience just b/c he's never held office before. Are Perdue's favorables good?

It's too early to tell on the first. My gut reaction is to say that it probably winds up being D/D or R/R, but this election has been incredibly weird all around.

The Perdue/Ossoff race is a favorability wash (both are popular among their voters and unpopular among the other's). We never picked up the Perdue favorability collapse that public pollsters did at the end, even when we were picking up late movement toward Ossoff. There's a much greater favorability imbalance in the Loeffler/Warnock race, though we expect more movement there.

Ossoff is almost certainly struggling on qualifications rather than temperament. He is perceived as very young, and efforts to highlight his experience as a congressional staffer don't help, since this is perceived as a job for a young person. We've heard rumblings that Ossoff's team is considering reaching out to Biden's team to cut an ad about how Biden was a young Senator as well, but there is resistance in both camps. Ossoff's doesn't want to over-nationalize, and Biden's doesn't want to risk being closely associated with a potential loss before even being sworn in.

[wbrocks67]

1) Do you have any way of gauging whether or not the poll indicates that Black turnout in the runoff will be proportionally higher than the general election % of voters (Due to the potential of Georgia's 1st black Senator?

2) Any indication regarding likely method of voting among various demographics?

3) Any idea or indication regarding what % of general election voters are expected to vote in the runoff?

Unfortunately not, for all three. The first is a major wild card that we'd normally rely on on-the-ground numbers for, and eventually early voting/VBM data. The second we can always ask about (and probably will in future tracking surveys) but didn't here. The third we can model as soon as the 2020 voting data is made available on the voter file, which we're expecting soon.

From what you've seen so far, do you think there are a decent # of ticket splitters or do you foresee it ending up being D/D or R/R?

Hoping Ossoff can make up some ground, surprised he's not doing well in temperament? I could see experience just b/c he's never held office before. Are Perdue's favorables good?

It's too early to tell on the first. My gut reaction is to say that it probably winds up being D/D or R/R, but this election has been incredibly weird all around.

The Perdue/Ossoff race is a favorability wash (both are popular among their voters and unpopular among the other's). We never picked up the Perdue favorability collapse that public pollsters did at the end, even when we were picking up late movement toward Ossoff. There's a much greater favorability imbalance in the Loeffler/Warnock race, though we expect more movement there.

Ossoff is almost certainly struggling on qualifications rather than temperament. He is perceived as very young, and efforts to highlight his experience as a congressional staffer don't help, since this is perceived as a job for a young person. We've heard rumblings that Ossoff's team is considering reaching out to Biden's team to cut an ad about how Biden was a young Senator as well, but there is resistance in both camps. Ossoff's doesn't want to over-nationalize, and Biden's doesn't want to risk being closely associated with a potential loss before even being sworn in.

Is there a sense so far in both races as to which way Independents are leaning? They seemed to go for Ds in the GE, so wondering if that will remain the case in the runoff. (thank you again for all of this)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1328378609652862979

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1328378609652862979

This just about always ends up hurting the no-show candidate.  This is probably why Kay Hagan lost to Tillis in 2014.  Only notable exception was Trump early in the 2016 primary, but that was not a GE debate.     

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The difference between AOC and MTG is that conservatives hate AOC for her policies and agenda. MJT agenda is not QANON but rather just conservative policies.

[KaiserDave]

The difference between AOC and MTG is that conservatives hate AOC for her policies and agenda. MJT agenda is not QANON but rather just conservative policies.

It's not just that lol.

If "conservative policies" is complete insanity, then sure.

[GALeftist]

The difference between AOC and MTG is that conservatives hate AOC for her policies and agenda. MJT agenda is not QANON but rather just conservative policies.

Trust me, friend, I hate her policies even more than I hate her bizarro cult.

[2016]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

[GALeftist]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

Quaking in my boots rn, not Karl Rove. Might as well concede right now tbh, especially since Dan Quayle is involved.

[Left Wing]

The difference between AOC and MTG is that conservatives hate AOC for her policies and agenda. MJT agenda is not QANON but rather just conservative policies.

First of all, she is Qanon. Second of all she's a raging anti-semite. You shouldn't need much more than that.

[Not Me, Us]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

Sound the alarm everyone! Karl Rove and Dan Quayle have been unleashed! Ossoff and Warnock should just concede now, it's already over.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

You mean the guy who blew $300 million without winning a single Senate seat he targeted in 2012?  The guy who couldn't steer Republicans to victory in an open seat Presidential election year Senate race in North Dakota?  The guy who was advising Trump's re-election campaign that somehow managed to lose Georgia earlier this year, something no other Republican Presidential candidate has done since 1992?  That Karl Rove? 

I feel better about our chances of flipping the Senate already

[WD]

Karl Rove has seen enough of the liberal crapshow in our Country and has been appointed to serve as Finance Chair to the Georgia Battleground Fund, a joint Fundraising Committee between the GA Battleground Fund & the NRSC

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/karl-rove-fundraising-georgia-runoffs-436783

Ossoff & Warnock will be heavily outspend. Dan Quale, Haley, Barbour, etc among others are involved.

You liberals did a lot to make even Establishment Republicans very, very angry.

Karl Rove? Bro I am literally shaking right now.

Ratings changes:

GA-Sen Regular: Likely R -> Titanium R
GA-SEN Special: Lean D -> Likely R (Not Safe R because Loeffler is a weak candidate imo)

[Never Made it to Graceland]

These races are both safe R. In 2008 Obama lost the state by 6 points, with a 3 point Senate election. Republicans won the ensuing senate runoff by 16 points or something like that.

And so ends Mr. Electajoe's Senate coattails, one of the most dismal congressional campaign failures in recent Democratic history.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dems need to not only tie MTG/QAnon to both Loeffler and Perdue but also hit both of them HARD for the insider training stuff. There should be nonstop ads about that.

Agreed. And that should even be a tactic going forward for Democrats. Make Boebert, Taylor-Greene, and others a Republican liability like they made The Squad to us.

The difference is that Taylor Greene is simply crazy / dumb, AOC / Omar on the other hand are not crazy nor stupid, they are toxic because they are basically extreme far left.

A better analogy for Taylor Greene is probably Maxine Waters.

If AOC or "The squad" are far left, how is MTG not extreme far right?

Because MTG (like Sarah Palin for example) is too stupid to have any ideological position, she is simply a moron who was lucky enough to get a safe seat in the House.

But she is more into complotist theories than far right ideology.

Far right = Steve King

[kwabbit]

Any news about polls for this race? AJC had one but there should be more.