2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[ProgressiveModerate]

In other news the Walker’s lowest numbers are in the Atlanta area and it’s suburbs, this could be a bad sign for him come November

Lol to the narrative that a Black R does great with black voters by default. I think part of his poor performance in Atlanta could be the fact it was an open primary and there could've been some Dem/Indies voting against him

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta say the GOP was quite clever with the new TX-28. Even though teh district is technically slightly bluer, it really factions the Dem communities between rural RGV and liberal parts of San Antonio, both of which generally have poor turnout.

Kinda werid how much of Hispanic San Antonio the district takes in while still being competative in a GE.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clyburn, Pelosi, and all the other gerontocrats running the Democratic Party really need to be thrown out on their ancient butts.

While I support Cuellar and am celebrating his victory, I do agree with this statement as a general matter. Clyburn, Pelosi, and Hoyer are old, out of touch, and need to go. Even many committee chairs fall in the same category, like the 83 year old Maxine Waters, the 74 year old Jerry Nadler, the 69 year old Nydia Velazquez, the 76 year old Carolyn Maloney, and the 75 year old Bobby Scott.

Good news is new neutral NY maps will rid of either Nadler or Maloney and Velazquez technically no longer lives in her district but should be ok.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly Jones and Shelby was a pretty good delegation for Alabama, hoping Britt ultimately wins. Moore and Tuberville would be a massive downgrade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also so much for "Moderate Suburban Cobb" as Greene still won a majority of the priamry vote there (though noticeable less so than other counties in her district).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cuellar wins!!!

Lol, this guy is like a roach

Doesn’t die

I will certainly agree he's like a cockroach, but for different reasons

It was close enough that Clyburn and Pelosi’s inexplicable decision to not just endorse the incumbent but go down and campaign for him likely tipped it.

Also, IIRC San Antonio was among the hardest hit by Texas’s new voter ID bull in the March primaries, so it’s possible that might have been determinative.

Leadership owns this.

Remember this, when they speak about Manchin and Sinema and whichever rotating villain of the week they speak out about. Leadership did this. Leadership owns this.

And as we saw with prescription drug pricing, they'll gladly let their agenda burn if it means keeping us down. Because at the end of the day, if prescription drug pricing or the PRO Act or abortion die, they won't have to suffer the consequences.

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

That might make an ounce of sense if in fact Sanders didn't win nearly all of the RGV counties 2 years ago. But why let facts and statistics get in the way of a good screed?

Doesn’t change the fact Cisneros was never going to be a congresswoman regardless of the outcome of this primary. Only difference is we get Cuellar instead of an R.

Firstly, I think the argument that Bernie won many of the RGV counties is quite weak. In the Dem primary, most of these counties had extremely low turnout, Bernie only got about 30% of the vote due to a fractured primary, he just won the counties cause Biden did really bad. Also winning a county ina  primary isn't indicative of Pres performance, hell Bernie won Denton County and Williamson County even though Biden was a better fit in the GE for both.

It's also possible a lot of dissaffected Dems voted for Bernie in the primary as a protest vote, similar to what we've seen in WV Dem primaries.

As a Dem who's not a fan of Cueller, I was personally rooting for him in this one. Cisneros had the opportunity to modify her campaign message to be a better fit for the district; running to the left of Cueller doesn't mean being a squad member in a Biden + 7 district. Conservative Dems in South Texas resounded rejected her for this reason. She had the chance to become stronger and she didn't. Furthermore, her toxicity for this part of the state would make her significantlly electorally worse than Cueller in the GE; even if Cueller does slightly worse in parts Bexar than she would've done, he wouldn't lose as much support as she would've lost in RGV. Cueller is prolly gonna retire or lose relatively soon anyways, but I would support a Dem primary from a more progressive candidate who can connect with the whole district.

The GOP was smart to combine 2 very distinct Hispanic communities into a single district even if it made the district slightly bluer. They knew it'd lead to fractioning of Dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

Right, anything to cope with the fact that she was a sh**t candidate that ran a sh**t campaign that was so out of touch with her district that she ran in rural Texas as if she was running for office in New York or San Francisco.  Thankfully Cuellar held on, because Cisneros would have been guaranteed to lose in November.   

Also, I doubt those on the RGV would be moved by Pelosi or CLyburn's endorsement.  If anything, Bernie and AOC campaigning for Cisneros certainy helped Cuellar more than anything Pelosi or Clyburn did. 

Luckily for Cuellar, there are people in Bexar who would have been receptive to Pelosi and Clyburn.

But hey, anything to protect your Messiahs.

Well, if Pelosi and Clyburn did in fact make a difference, then it's certainly a good thing they got involved.  But of course, you and the rest of the fake progressive left would rather have an insurrectionist supporting, Ted Cruz disciple Republican in that seat

And you'd rather have someone who regularly fights the Democratic Party than someone who doesn't. Anti-BBB, anti-PRO Act, anti-marijuana reform, anti-Democrat. This clown is closer to Susan Collins than Joe Manchin!

I don't care about labels or the idea of power. I care about the agenda and policy. I don't care what he calls himself - Henry Cuellar is not a Democrat.

So because Cuellar isn't enough of a Democrat, you support a full on Republican like Cassy Garcia, like she won't fight the Democratic party or support any of things you said? make that make sense.

BTW, Cuellar voted for BBB, and to say he is closer to Collins than Manchin is just another stupid statement considering that Manchin votes against the party about twice as often as Cuellar (who, while we're on the same subject, votes with the GOP less often than anybody on the Squad)

After he was sure that his gambit to kill it was complete.

The comparison is just bad overall because Manchin is an actually decisive vote in the Senate whereas the House doesn't really matter cause if it's not passing the House it's not passing the Senate and Dems have a few seat majority in the House anyways.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One primary I'll be watching is NJ-08 which is the district in which my mom lives.

Robert Menendez, the son of a certain US senator is running in the Democratic primary to replace outgoing rep Albio sires. He faces 2 challengers: Ocampo Grajales and Roseborough-Eberhard.

Robert Menendez obviously has the name recognition and most of the national D support, but not necessarily for the better. Both of his challengers a bit more anti-establishment but not the AOC squad level.

The thing is neither of the other Ds has really run that strong of a campaign and neither is seen as the clear alternative to Menendez; they're likely to split the anti-Menendez vote.

My guess is Menendez could fall below 50% but the other 2 Ds split the vote causing Menendez to ultimately win pretty much no matter what. This will really be a test of how far endorsements by national leaders and various groups can actually go.

My mom who I've helped turn into a reliable voter will be voting against Menendez but hasn't decided which of the Dems she will vote for (and in all honestly may just check whatever box because it's not Menendez).

I could def see Menendez facing a more aggressive and organized primary threat later in the decade.

This really is a shame. NJ-08 seems like the kind of district that would be good for a rising star who'd represent a very diverse district but instead we're going to end up with a political legacy.

NJ-08 will obviously be Safe D in the GE though I am surprised the new config "only" went to Biden by 44%. This likely has to do with much of this district being pretty low turnout and Bayonne being somewhat close politically due to being White Working Class and more separate from NYC similar to Staten Island sorta.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Menendez is fairly safe and I'd be surprised if he fell under 65%. His challengers aren't seriously campaigning as far as I've seen and his father isn't unpopular in that particular district.

Prolly wishful thinking on my part given I tend to not like political legacies and am not a fan of Menendez, but in the Jersey City/Hoboken area, Menendez seems like quite a notorious name. If any progressive challenger wants to knock off Menendez, their core of support likely needs to be out of this area, especially Hoboken. This issue is Menendez is likely to run up the margins everywhere else.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda suprised Kean is below 50%.

Also suprised how well Menedez did in NJ-08; from the folks I talked too there seemed to be some degree of anti-Menedez momentum. There's a small chance the remaining Hudson County vote could push him below 80% and as expected Hudson County (likely JC and Hoboken) was his "weakest" area.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Guest losing would really be a reflection how cultish much of the GOP has become.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1534357772703252480?t=_N-dyITeGTnH8mJcaJa2...

While it’s certainly hilarious to see a D incumbent be labeled lean R, what is he seeing here that makes Nunn some kind of titan?

Right on cue! Thanks mate see my Post above!

Tbf it is a narrow Trumps seat which really doesn't bode well for Axne.

However representing a narrow Trump seat in the State Senate isn't anything particuarly impressive. Both Axne and Nunn are a bit overrated electorally IMO but just given the nature of the seat and the year Lean R seems fair.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Iowa Senate D map is really weird. Fink winning the far east, west and north, Franken everywhere else. Something to do with media markets?

Finks district was in the Northeast region of the state so that could explain those counties, the Eastern part of the state is much more polarized so the average Dem primary voter is likely more liberal and younger in that area. The most interesting region to me is the Southeast corner where Fink is winning quite a few counties, my main theory is because it's very simillar area to much of what she represented in her district.

Frankens base of strongest support seems to be concentrated around the greater Des Moines media market

[ProgressiveModerate]

Instacall for Newsom lol

[ProgressiveModerate]

Young Kim has already an 8,000 Vote lead over Raths from the Orange County Absentees. I've a hard time seeing how she could not be in the Top 2.

Calling this for Mahmoud & Kim!

Tbf we don't know where those absentees are coming from in her district which is very diverse. I'd say that seems most likely as of now though but I tend to be cautious with these Cali districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing to look out for is if Rs get any significant chunk of the vote in very very hyper blue LA and Bay Area districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Very little is in but Valadao could be in trouble. If he loses the primary Rs are in real trouble in this district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So I've been pouring over the numbers actually think the reason Rice might have failed to get a run off comes from Jamal Campbell's challenge to Jackie "Coach" Hayes. DIllon has been trending republican, albeit slowly, for a few cycles, but tonight the democratic primary population heavily outweighed that of the republican.

No one cares about Dillon County but Dillon County. Rep. Hayes has been in since the early 2000s and is wildly popular especially among the college educated class. He's a generic moderate liberal but also the town football coach and has a lot of connections from that and just being a native.

Many of the people that voted to save Hayes from his challenger (myself and most of my direct social circle included) would have potentially or even likely crossed over to vote for Rice. No other race is competitve in a significant way to cause Democrats to vote in the primary unless they are diehards. Had this challenge not happen you could see 1,000 to maybe even 2,500 more votes in the republican primary. It's hard to say how these voters would have voted but they likely would have been more heavy then the county as a whole.

It seems small but it might have been just enough to push Fry under 50% and give Rice a snowballs chance.

And that's why the GOP on a national level needs to do what the Virginia GOP is doing by scrapping primaries and going with conventions. It's how we got Youngkin, it's how we got Hung Cao, it's how we got Bob Good. Convention systems prevent Democrats like you from sabotaging our candidate selections. I don't want Republicans to do that for Democrats so you can hold Primaries and choose your candidates and we can hold Conventions and choose our people properly.

lol most of the people I’m talking about would have voted in the Republican primary instead of the democratic one. But ya know there does exist a thing called closed primaries?

Also Republicans hold just as much power to vote in a D primary if they want. It's called being strategic with your vote.

Also by and large Republican priamries are mostly GOP voters so if they keep electing canidates you see as flawed by a large margin your party might need to look in the mirror.

Conventions imo are just anti-democratic as a whole

[ProgressiveModerate]

Calling VA-7 D for Vega!

Uncalled:

GA-2 R
DC Shadow Rep. D
AL Gov D
AL Auditor R
CA-2 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2

Yseli Vega seems like one of the stronger Rs to take on Spanberger.

R victory in this district likely relies on Rs further cutting into Dem margins in diverse communities like Dale City. Furthermore, Vega doesn't seem particuarly to either faction of the Republican Party.

Def a tossup race, but if Dems are losing here, they are having trouble nationally and have lost the House.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Can't find a megathread for the Colorado race but O'Dea deciding to campaign as an outright moderate has that leapfrogging CT in my list of reach seats for Republicans.

You had CT above CO before?

Yes, on the grounds that Hanks would have moved it to nearly safe and I didn't realize O'Dea was such a maverick type. And in my defense, the race was a complete mystery to those of us outside the state once the convention eliminated nearly all of the perceived front-runners.

O'Dea definitively has a chance to flip it. He's a Charlie Baker-type Republican.
Funnily enough dems spending millions to make him look like a centrist and not loyal to Trump might have helped him in the general.

Considering the current state of politics, it'd be quite a narrow tight rope to walk to bring together a big enough coalition to flip CO R. I would point out in 2020, CO-Sen was "only" Hickenlooper + 9. Obviously, the dynamics of this race are a bit different; O'Dea has a chance to be a better canidate than Gardner, but Bennett is relatively inoffensive and well liked, but a 7 point rightwards shift nationally for Dems can def put this in the danger zone. Given CO's trajectory, it'd be a surefire flip or hold D come 2028. The key is college educated voters which allowed CO to swing so hard to the elft in 2020.

O'Dea would be the perfect candidate for college-educated voters. I would actually say that even a swing of 6% to Republicans could lead to an O'Dea win because I would expect him to overperform by a few points compared to the national environment.

ROTFL O’Dea is gonna get crushed.  He’s a some dude C-lister with absolutely no meaningful crossover appeal.

Safe D

Why do you assume he has no crossover appeal? He supports BIF, is pro-choice and iirc he refused to say whether he voted for Trump or not.

Let's see how he holds up in the GE campaign. Running a moderate campaign can either be really successsful or end up making you look like a fool. I could see him flip-flopping too much or smtg pushing normally Dem-leaning but curious voters out of reach.

A good way to think about Colorado politics at this point is in order for Rs to win statewide, Republicans need to have CO-03, CO-04, CO-05, and CO-08 outvote CO-01, CO-02, CO-06, and CO-07. Tbf, in an R victory CO-07 likely wouldn't be netting Dems many if any votes, but CO-01 and CO-02 are extremely hard to outvote and CO-06 should be enough to cancel out CO-08

I'm curious though how "unnatual" Biden's performance was in Colorado in 2020 because that was a very very heavy swing left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also I hope this shows Republicans that banning abortion tends to be a losing issue, especially extreme bans with no exceptions. In most state legistlatures where they've banned it, they have an iron grip on state government that won't be goign away in 2022 but in states like TX they should be careful going forwards.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Meijer doesn't appear to necessarily be toast at all in MI-03 based upon a Kornacki assement I just watched....

Most of the outstanding vote is out of Kent which should favor him, at least by the results so far. The big question is from where in Kent are the current votes for him coming from? Is it representative of how the county will break when all the votes are counted?

By my calculation is if remaining votes break as the current votes break Meijer narrowly wins but that's not a done deal.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad to see Haley Stevens appear to be winning in MI-11. I have nothing against Levin but Dems really need to do a better job about getting more younger members and not just have the same old dinosaurs in congress forever.

Dem turnout in MI-11 also seems pretty impressive. Might even reach 50% of Biden's 2020 total.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'd be very curious to see how Wyoming breaks in Kent County. The town has a lot in common with Ottowa County and is more working class than most GR suburbs