2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[NOVA Green]

I am going through vote drop withdrawal...

I need a hit.

We could always discuss the results we already have received.... there's enough "hits" out there just trying to sift through the (admittedly incomplete results in many states) unofficial data we got....

Might work as a "Resin Hit"....

[NOVA Green]

I am going through vote drop withdrawal...

I need a hit.

RIP Lou

 But it's real, I'm looking at state county maps like a fiend looking for any remaining votes in PA and Georgia.

I remember doing that in Ohio in 2004 and even going through and looking a precinct level data over the next Month trying to find any evidence that might have supported a conspiracy theory that one of my roommates had back then about how the Election Voting Machines were somehow being hacked...

Pretty sure Team Biden has a good crew working these items, and they likely have a slightly better idea than we do of which exact ballots are outstanding (PA has Party ID REG) so unfortunately looks like we gotta wait for updates until Tomorrow.   

[NOVA Green]

Oh dear, this thing STILL hasn't been called. Just woke up. Very disappointing.

So can anybody give me the rundown of what has happened over the last 8-9 hours or so?

- Biden up almost 29k in PA. Did Allegheny finally come in? Do we have any new info on what remains and why the hell they aren't calling it to end this nightmare?

- I assume that NV is still safe and the media is just not calling it because reasons?

- 4k+ ahead in GA. Do we even know what the remaining ballots are or how many military ballots have come in?

- It seems like not much has happened in AZ. I assume we still believe that Biden has got this?

Hi BlueSwan---

Good to see you back and me and my Wife would love be able to go to Copenhagen for a proper visit (I spent a couple days backpacking in the City back in the early '90s, and we both spent about (12) Hours in the Airport back in the late '00s, and a bit later on almost had a chance to get relocated for a job out out there).

I will let others fill out the details and attempt to provide a brief Summary (Atlas Hive Feel Free to Correct and provide additional information).

1.) Part of Allegheny came in, including a mixture  of "Overseas Ballots", including Military Ballots, as well as some Provisionals, but I believe there are still a significant number of remaining ballots not counted today.

2.) Overall PA ballots continue to heavily favor Democrats, regardless of the "Provisionals", let alone Mail Ballots from Heavily Trump Counties such as Washington County.

3.) Mail Ballots arriving after election day are "segregated" and not included in Total Vote Counts yet, despite in some case having already been tabulated.

4.) Most of the Outstanding Ballots remaining continue to reside in heavily Democratic Counties, and even in Erie County, we have not seen the "Provisional Ballots" favor Trump theory manifest.

5.) Nevada--- I believe most of us is suspecting that the News Organizations are not calling it out of an abundance of caution, especially since the AZ Fox & AP calls left some of them "Gun Shy" about "Early Calls" where Early VbM vs Late VbM patterns shifted a bit from previous voting patterns.

TBH--- We saw something similar in Oregon, where DEMs were overwhelmingly leading Turnout vs REG PUBs and then the latest numbers show only a +0.5% D Turnout Gap.

6.) NV--- Atlas still has some conspiracy theories regarding media trying to string out the race over the Weekend for ratings, and other theories about how the news media is intimidated by Trump, etc...

Personally, I would ignore most of those takes.

7.) Most of the votes in NV remaining are in Clark County, which as you are well aware is a heavily DEM stronghold, but the "what if" scenarios regarding which votes have been counted in various parts of the huge Metropolis, "maybe somehow Henderson County or various uninc 'Burbs are the outstanding places".... "what if" Latinos are swinging harder to Trump in the Barrios of the Las Vegas.

Quite frankly in my mind this is a bunch of bunk bathtub Acid from the early '90s, but well we shall see.

8.) I'll trust Ralston the NV numbers and that he has essentially seen enough, but granted COVID-19 disproportionately hit Vegas, just like the Great Recession of '08, so maybe some more extreme shifts here than in some other places with "Trump Checks", etc getting delivered to folks for their "Gig Economy" work, etc.... So a bit wild out there, and I suspect many members of the Media

9.) GA--- Think we are down to less ballots remaining than the size of Biden's lead. Only reason the State hasn't been called yet is that news orgs don't want to call a state when it's under recount zone.   

Recounts rarely change anything for Statewide Elections unless it's a major "Tabulation Error", so Biden numbers should hold in GA unless there happened to be some weird thing with a particular voting machine in a certain place, etc....

10.) AZ---- Bit of a Trip. Should be a Biden hold based upon the % of Trump / Biden Ballots added, not looking good for Trump in the largest Counties.

Still, theoretically there are enough outstanding voted out in AZ for a Trump flip, but he's gotta be doing better in the various vote batches.

[NOVA Green]

Oh dear, this thing STILL hasn't been called. Just woke up. Very disappointing.

So can anybody give me the rundown of what has happened over the last 8-9 hours or so?

- Biden up almost 29k in PA. Did Allegheny finally come in? Do we have any new info on what remains and why the hell they aren't calling it to end this nightmare?

- I assume that NV is still safe and the media is just not calling it because reasons?

- 4k+ ahead in GA. Do we even know what the remaining ballots are or how many military ballots have come in?

- It seems like not much has happened in AZ. I assume we still believe that Biden has got this?

Hi BlueSwan---

Good to see you back and me and my Wife would love be able to go to Copenhagen for a proper visit (I spent a couple days backpacking in the City back in the early '90s, and we both spent about (12) Hours in the Airport back in the late '00s, and a bit later on almost had a chance to get relocated for a job out out there).

I will let others fill out the details and attempt to provide a brief Summary (Atlas Hive Feel Free to Correct and provide additional information).

1.) Part of Allegheny came in, including a mixture  of "Overseas Ballots", including Military Ballots, as well as some Provisionals, but I believe there are still a significant number of remaining ballots not counted today.

2.) Overall PA ballots continue to heavily favor Democrats, regardless of the "Provisionals", let alone Mail Ballots from Heavily Trump Counties such as Washington County.

3.) Mail Ballots arriving after election day are "segregated" and not included in Total Vote Counts yet, despite in some case having already been tabulated.

4.) Most of the Outstanding Ballots remaining continue to reside in heavily Democratic Counties, and even in Erie County, we have not seen the "Provisional Ballots" favor Trump theory manifest.

5.) Nevada--- I believe most of us is suspecting that the News Organizations are not calling it out of an abundance of caution, especially since the AZ Fox & AP calls left some of them "Gun Shy" about "Early Calls" where Early VbM vs Late VbM patterns shifted a bit from previous voting patterns.

TBH--- We saw something similar in Oregon, where DEMs were overwhelmingly leading Turnout vs REG PUBs and then the latest numbers show only a +0.5% D Turnout Gap.

6.) NV--- Atlas still has some conspiracy theories regarding media trying to string out the race over the Weekend for ratings, and other theories about how the news media is intimidated by Trump, etc...

Personally, I would ignore most of those takes.

7.) Most of the votes in NV remaining are in Clark County, which as you are well aware is a heavily DEM stronghold, but the "what if" scenarios regarding which votes have been counted in various parts of the huge Metropolis, "maybe somehow Henderson County or various uninc 'Burbs are the outstanding places".... "what if" Latinos are swinging harder to Trump in the Barrios of the Las Vegas.

Quite frankly in my mind this is a bunch of bunk bathtub Acid from the early '90s, but well we shall see.

8.) I'll trust Ralston the NV numbers and that he has essentially seen enough, but granted COVID-19 disproportionately hit Vegas, just like the Great Recession of '08, so maybe some more extreme shifts here than in some other places with "Trump Checks", etc getting delivered to folks for their "Gig Economy" work, etc.... So a bit wild out there, and I suspect many members of the Media

9.) GA--- Think we are down to less ballots remaining than the size of Biden's lead. Only reason the State hasn't been called yet is that news orgs don't want to call a state when it's under recount zone.   

Recounts rarely change anything for Statewide Elections unless it's a major "Tabulation Error", so Biden numbers should hold in GA unless there happened to be some weird thing with a particular voting machine in a certain place, etc....

10.) AZ---- Bit of a Trip. Should be a Biden hold based upon the % of Trump / Biden Ballots added, not looking good for Trump in the largest Counties.

Still, theoretically there are enough outstanding voted out in AZ for a Trump flip, but he's gotta be doing better in the various vote batches.

Thank you for the thorough response mate. Sounds like there isn't really much to worry about and we should just settle in for the wait. I was getting worried because I officially called PA and hence the election to Biden yesterday in our podcast on american politics, and to my students, and on my facebook page. And I wasn't being like, Biden will probably win. I was saying that Biden had DEFINITELY won PA and hence the election. Suddenly got concerned last night when it appeared that the outstanding vote in PA wasn't quite what we thought it was (with all the provisionals, etc).

I am surprised to see that nobody else on Atlas has commented on your post to provide their own inputs, but I suspect partially it is that most folks have checked out of this thread knowing we are not going to get any updates until Tomorrow anywhere within any of the States still not called (Including AZ if we consider that to perhaps be an excessively aggressive early call.

The PA numbers alone continue to move increasingly negative against Trump, even within the context of the "Provisional Ballot Theory" of a Trump come from behind win in PA, based upon practically any objective metric.

In fact the preponderance of evidence will likely support a Biden win of at minimum +50k D if not much higher.

The number of "sequestered ballots" (Still not included in official results) appear to be extremely low (4k Ballots thus far??), regardless of the SCOTUS decision to basically put them "ON HOLD" and "NOT INCLUDE IN OFFICIAL COUNTS", which is basically how the PA Election authorities have already been doing it.

Media stunt on the part of PUBs to create doubt and confusion about election counting in PA.

Regardless for your students and professional career, important thing to note is that there are even more ballots yet to be counted, the trajectory appears to be clear and that we have yet to see any real evidence that Trump is winning the "late votes".

Arizona trends might be running a bit different with shifts in Early VbM, Late VbM, etc....

You can always use Oregon as an example from my posts on Atlas about Voter Turnout Levels by Party REG and Partisan Enthusiasm in 2020.   

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile we have tons of Republican and Republican Leaning voters abandoning a sinking ship from AZ to GA in 2020...

We can't underestimate the power of the Lincoln Project, the McCain Family, etc in moving these margins....

[NOVA Green]

So what is stopping the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature from simply saying "We don't care what the official tally is. We are awarding all electors to Donald Trump"?

Some Trumpers talked about that before the election and Donald Trump Jr. retweeted Mark Levin's tweet that demanded such action (Twitter removed it).

I believe the PA PUB controlled Legislature has already recently said they will not do that just a day or two back (Old Man Memory blurs with all of these additional data points....)....

[NOVA Green]

Deciphering the blend of each AZ dump remains my favorite election week activity.

Good thing we have election Month activity, since CA can take about a Month to county.

I did daily updates of CA in both the 2016 and 2020 DEM PRES Primaries, so maybe once we get the rest of the States called, we can still have some daily election result updates over the next few Weeks.   

[NOVA Green]

Once this is released, rip up the Jackson ones and take them to the bank to get Tubman's. As long as both serial numbers on the ripped ones match, it's legal.

Fact Check.... wait until the Jackson's are no longer legit before anyone on Atlas / TE rips up their $20 Bills and takes them to the bank.

Stockdale for VP gotta point that the Jacksons will likely be replaced by Tubman's under a Biden Gvt, but I would highly suggest not tearing up your money quite yet, until the new bills come around.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/politics/harriet-tubman-20-mnuchin-trnd/index.html

[NOVA Green]

California keeps tightening with each update.  Biden is likely to end up with a lower CA margin of victory than Hillary when all is said and done.  WA/OR and NJ/MD are also tightening with late ballots.  I wouldn't expect the NPV margin to balloon like it did in 2016.  The NY absentees could be near unanimous Biden, but that could be last big PV swing he will get.

Really about Maryland? When I first looked Biden was ~60% and is now up to 63.33%.

Illinois still has ~600K, the vast majority are in Cook and Lake counties. There are also thousands of ballots left to count in predominantly Democratic areas in Virginia.

It would be nice if there was one place were we could see the total numbers of votes still outstanding.

Ohio votes outstanding will likely be quite beneficial to Biden as well in terms of not only RAW TOT Vote Margins, but additional in % Spread by Party.

[NOVA Green]

Sioux Falls, South Dakota (Minnehaha County) might well have flipped with these numbers (Possibly) and the Country swung hard DEM.

Needless to say not all small Rurals both East & West tell the full story...

We gotta look at where the people actually live in the Counties and not just some random swing arrows, but still Biden naturally did pretty well compared to HRC in many parts of Western MT as Well.

Rural Eastern SD is a bit surprising, considering how well DEM PRES candidates have traditionally performed there since 1988.

Some of the random stuff in Western SD might be explained by Native Americans who weren't too crazy about HRC after the 1st Native Revolts against Keystone Pipeline activities.

Still overall trends appear to go against the grain considering Anglos in Western Dakotas tend to be a bit more Racist against Native Land Rights than those in the Western Dakotas... (Sturgis / COVID-19 / Dead Cat Bounce ?)

[NOVA Green]

So, while we are still waiting for results, I thought I would comment on the latest numbers out of Alaska.

I took the liberty of running the current numbers for Anchorage Alaska by State House District.



*** Key Note District #12 is a split district with two precincts located within the City Limits of Anchorage and Two located outside (Gets even trickier since we can't do VbM vs ED / EV ballots since they don't break down by precinct so tougher to parse) ***

1.) It appears that there are still a significant number of Mail-In-Ballots remaining to be counted within Anchorage, unless something really weird happened between '16 and '20.

Here are some numbers that I crunched for Anchorage for GE PRES 2016 from another thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7502296#msg7502296

2.) A conservative estimate would be that we likely have something like 10k Ballots remaining from the City of Anchorage.

3.) Currently even including the split District HD-12 (Most Republican Part of Anchorage) it's something like 53.6% Trump  vs 42.9% Biden with a +10k Trump Lead.

4.) I haven't even attempted to perform the exercise yet of doing a C&P of 2016 vs 2018 GE PRES TV by State District, let alone Turnout (TO %) by HD.

5.) That being said, I would continue to expect Alaska late ballots to heavily favor Biden, and although so far Trump appears to have a clear advantage, I can certainly understand why it hasn't been called yet.

Anybody want to actually take a look at election results incoming as opposed to some of these extremely bizarre on occasions, as well as expected bickering about non-related items, as one might expect on this thread when folks start to get bored....   

[NOVA Green]

Please Mods--- can we find a way to merge / police the thread for various items such as:

1.) Military Coups

2.) Supreme Court / Legal Decisions Speculations

3.) Any such similar extraneous content

It's getting to a point where I was relieved to see the numbers of daily / hourly posts decrease, but still we got all of this extra crap floating around still, and some posters apparently still don't understand the concept of "self-policing", while really many of us are actually interested in looking at the actual election votes currently being reported, swings / exit polls, etc...

I get that we have many folks still concerned about these various scenarios, but really it starts to get old after awhile, and if people can't self-police in a "CHOP-ZONE", maybe the "Police" need to help clear the streets a bit and divert the crowds to their appropriate "Kettles" in order to be able to shout at each other back and forth from behind the Concrete Barriers, while not obstructing traffic in the interim.

Reality is that we are getting to a point in the thread where many us actually interested in looking at incoming results have to wade through the swamps and the muck and the mire in order to occasionally find an outpost, where we can create our "Jungle Camp" after having crossed the Big Muddy, but now want to check out the actual results from the Street Combat and Battles from Alaska, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, as well as assessing the data from places like Tejas, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina.... not to mention incoming data from California, New York, and Maryland....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Total Raw Vote Numbers have now jumped to 2,411,802 Total Votes... as of 11/10/20 1714 PM PST.   (81.78% RV TO)

+~15k New Votes added.

+8,941 Biden     (61.6% D)
+4,782 Trump    (32.9% R)
+  798 3rd Party ( 5.5%)

+ 14,521 TOTAL

https://results.oregonvotes.gov/Default.aspx

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for creating this thread Tender.

Makes it easier to try to locate finalized precinct results, since frequently State / County Agencies start posting these once numbers are official.

[NOVA Green]

Biden leading in VA by doubles now and breaches 70 in fairfax

I've been saying for a while that if Biden were the nominee he would hit 70+ in Fairfax and win NoVa by more than 500k.  I think both of those two things are true, though I haven't added up the final numbers in NoVa. 

It's just absolutely amazing how fast Fairfax has gone from being an overwhelmingly Republican stronghold to one of the most Democratic voting places in the Country.

I remember watching the 1988 GE Election results at the local DEM Party HQ as the results started to come in, and VA was pretty much almost an instant call, largely as a result of Exit Polls from the NoVA region.

In the Mid '90s, I was dating a GF from Fairfax County (Native), and even then it was still pretty strong PUB country, and I recall getting into vigorous political debates with her about the political culture and geography of the County, while meanwhile she is introducing me to all of her HS Friends & Family, with many of their parents coming from highly educated / professional backgrounds, as well as a decent % from different countries of origin.

Now Fairfax County votes something like how Multnomah County, Oregon was voting back in 2004....

Fairfax County in '04 was something like 53-46 Kerry.

This is one of those places that I strongly suspect: "Ain't going back jack", even in the post Trump Republican GE era (Will there ever be a post Trump era even with Trump out of office?).

[NOVA Green]

so much for it swinging hard D

I don't remember this take at all

Wasn't there some polls showing Trump up by low double digits?

You talking about South Carolina or South Dakota?

South Dakota

Notably, the West River part of South Dakota did swing heavily Dem, while East River generally swung a bit towards Trump.

Source: NYTimes Swing Map

Oh look, it’s East River vs West River in South Dakota! Any South Dakota posters know why East River swung towards Trump, while West River swung towards Biden?

However the Biggest City in the State Sioux Falls (East River) swung +6.7% Biden:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7764365#msg7764365

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

It also appears that Biden is likely currently ahead in Anchorage Alaska...

I crunched the 11/12/20 PM batch into the mix and currently Trump is leading by only (396) Votes.

This include State House Districts 12-28, and HD-12 is a "Partial Anchorage" district, where the four non-City precincts are overwhelmingly Republican.

Including HD-12 ALL, current % numbers are 48.4% Trump- 48.2% Biden   (+0.2% Trump).

I had previously attempted to review Anchorage Alaska 2016 numbers in a post on 8/8/20:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7502296#msg7502296

2016: Anchorage Alaska (Excluding the Absentee Ballots from HD-12) was 48.6% Trump- 39.6% Biden   (+9.0% R)

Here is a link to my Anchorage Alaska Update on 11/10/20 on this very thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.msg7761321#msg7761321

Also it looks like there are still some votes potentially out in Anchorage in HD-15 & HD-19 at a minimum, and quite possibly some of the other HD's showing only ~50% Turnout (TO).

[NOVA Green]

You can drive all way from Denver to Seattle and not leave a blue state. Incredible!

Thank you, Arizona!

Maybe BRTD needs to relocate to the Southwest...

[NOVA Green]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

Any updates on Indiana Election results (Especially interest of mine would be Allen County / Fort Wayne)?

Was never as obsessed with Hamilton County as others on the Forum, but fond memories of getting my nose busted in the early '90s in mass street demos against the KKK coming to town.   

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/alexanderao/status/1327051626872500224

Interesting... heavily Dominican as well as to a somewhat lesser extent Puerto Rican.

Here's a brief profile of Lawrence (As well as a few other factory towns in Mass).

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/06/three-ma-towns-owe-their-very-survival-to-people-they-once-shunned/432132/

Here's an academic abstract of a study on Dominican and Puerto Rican gangs in Lawrence:

https://grantome.com/grant/NIH/R24-DA012203-02-1

Here's another survey of Dominican and Puerto Rican populations in Lawrence from UMass-Boston:

https://scholarworks.umb.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1041&context=gaston_pubs

[NOVA Green]

Alaska appears to have done another update at some point today:




Trump-  +10,110
Biden-   +11,336

It went from the 11/12 numbers:

Trump- 168,954 (53.6%)    +12.0% Trump
Biden-  131,233 (41.6%)

Here are the 11/13 numbers:

Trump- 179,064 (53.0%)    +10.8% Trump.
Biden-  142,569 (42.2%)

[NOVA Green]

Bragging rights for Romney if Trump falls below 47.15 (that's what Romney got in 2012, some sites have it at 47.2).

Always loved the irony that Romney got 47%.

Between that and now the 306 table turn, the election gods clearly have a sense of humor.

If God is real God is a liberal.

God is Dead.

Black Sabbath confirms it:

[NOVA Green]

Alaska appears to have done another update at some point today:




Trump-  +10,110
Biden-   +11,336

It went from the 11/12 numbers:

Trump- 168,954 (53.6%)    +12.0% Trump
Biden-  131,233 (41.6%)

Here are the 11/13 numbers:

Trump- 179,064 (53.0%)    +10.8% Trump.
Biden-  142,569 (42.2%)

Biden could become the first Dem in this century to bring Alaska within single digits in a presidential election.

Biden appearing to have won Anchorage is likely a huge part of the math equation...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7769150#msg7769150

[NOVA Green]

Alaska appears to have done another update at some point today:




Trump-  +10,110
Biden-   +11,336

It went from the 11/12 numbers:

Trump- 168,954 (53.6%)    +12.0% Trump
Biden-  131,233 (41.6%)

Here are the 11/13 numbers:

Trump- 179,064 (53.0%)    +10.8% Trump.
Biden-  142,569 (42.2%)

Biden could become the first Dem in this century to bring Alaska within single digits in a presidential election.

Biden appearing to have won Anchorage is likely a huge part of the math equation...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=411611.msg7769150#msg7769150

You mentioning Anchorage helped me realize something.
In Alaska Dems have a geography advantage because the GOP has so many wasted votes from Mat-Su Borough and, to a lesser extent, Fairbanks.
The only Dem stronghold Ds get similar numbers in is the North Slope.

TimTurner--- assuming you are talking about AK House District Seats?

Anchorage is something like 35% of the Total Vote in Alaska, and Mat-Su obviously heavily PUB and Native American dominates many other Alaska HDs...

Not quite sure yet what you are driving at, but thinking I'm starting to "Grok" where you are going with this....

[NOVA Green]

Mississippi has updated their vote totals:

58.4% Trump
40.3% Biden

Any highlights and shifts by County?