2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pima County has cleared out their provisionals and signature cures, leaving them with 3639 votes left to be tabulated.  Also, in the last couple of updates I was reading the number of votes Trump stood to gain (using the very favorable assumptions) from the wrong row.  It's actually somewhat higher, so here's a new *correct* update:


Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline has past in most counties): 2022
Provisional ballots: 8514
Ballots ready for tabulation: 7006

Total: 17542

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 14828 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 2236 from them.  He currently trails by 11390, so would finish behind by 9154.

Of the estimated remaining 17.5K ballots, 3639 are in Pima County (all awaiting tabulation, i.e. will definitely count) and 6700 are in Maricopa (about half provisionals/cures).  Based on present trends (without the Trump-friendly assumptions) I'm estimating the final margin will be between 10K and 12K for Biden.  Trump has no chance to win; the only interesting question remaining is whether Arizona will end up closer than Georgia, which looks quite likely at this point.

It seems that 1,134 ballots from Cochise were dumped:

Biden +373
Trump +729

There will be another update on the remaining ballots to count, I assume.

Yes, Cochise (a Trump county) is now down to 1817 ballots left to tabulate, with no remaining provisionals or signature cures.

Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification (deadline has past in most counties): 1710
Provisional ballots: 5507
Ballots ready for tabulation: 8823

Total: 16040

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 14083 of the remaining ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 1959 from them.  He currently trails by 11034, so would finish behind by 9075.

Of the estimated remaining 16K ballots, 3639 are in Pima County (all awaiting tabulation, i.e. will definitely count) and 6700 are in Maricopa (about half provisionals/cures).  Based on present trends (without the Trump-friendly assumptions) I'm estimating the final margin will be between 10K and 12K for Biden.  Trump has no chance to win; the only interesting question remaining is whether Arizona will end up closer than Georgia, which looks quite likely at this point.

[n1240]

The uniformity in how some Hasidic precincts vote is pretty fascinating.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1327023283062124545?s=21

These agency employees know Trump is leaving soon and just DGAF about his feelings anymore.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

[MATTROSE94]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

Are there a lot of Biden/Sullivan voters or no?

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1327023283062124545?s=21

These agency employees know Trump is leaving soon and just DGAF about his feelings anymore.

Too bad they'll probably all be fired.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

Are there a lot of Biden/Sullivan voters or no?

Doesn't seem likely, IMO. However, many Alaskan Independence voters in the Senate election seemed to have voted in Biden.

[LimoLiberal]

The uniformity in how some Hasidic precincts vote is pretty fascinating.

Wait wait wait. Is this real?

Trump got 100% of the vote in this precinct while Mondaire Jones (D!) got 85%?!!!?!!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

Are the House results not switched?

[n1240]

The uniformity in how some Hasidic precincts vote is pretty fascinating.

Wait wait wait. Is this real?

Trump got 100% of the vote in this precinct while Mondaire Jones (D!) got 85%?!!!?!!?!?!??!?!?!?!?

Are the House results not switched?

There are actually a couple precincts like this, although the House results in some are completely jumbled (I've seen Joshua Eisen coming in 2nd in a couple precincts and receiving upwards of around 40% of the vote), but there are at least 4 precincts where Trump gets 95%+ of the vote and Jones and the Dem State Senate candidate are getting 90%+ of the vote. In 2016 you could also find a number of 90%+ Trump 90%+ Schumer precincts, and in the 2020 primary most of them voted in the Dem primary 90% in favor of certain candidates and most of them leaving the Prez preference blank which led to weird results like Buttigieg and Yang winning some precincts with 10 votes and 90%+ undervote rate. My understanding is that Hasidic Jews are basically given a list of candidates to support (sometimes varies by community) and for the most part they don't stray too far off from each other. Can view some precincts for yourself here (in Ramapo).

[Alben Barkley]

And CNN still haven't called AZ....

Are u kidding me?

Based on what happened when the whole thing was called, I imagine everyone else is waiting on CNN again.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How did Biden do so great in New England, yet mediocre in Upstate NY and the Upper Midwest? They were both settled by Yankees and have a similar political culture. If you are winning WWC Maine and RI, you should be winning Macomb and Bay counties in MI and the Driftless Area in WI.

Biden's CT 20 point margin was insane, I do remember people being nervous about the state long term, as the eastern part of the state is WWC and trended Trump in 2016.

[CookieDamage]

How did Biden do so great in New England, yet mediocre in Upstate NY and the Upper Midwest? They were both settled by Yankees and have a similar political culture. If you are winning WWC Maine and RI, you should be winning Macomb and Bay counties in MI and the Driftless Area in WI.

Biden's CT 20 point margin was insane, I do remember people being nervous about the state long term, as the eastern part of the state is WWC and trended Trump in 2016.

Wait till NY is done counting

[vileplume]

It looks like that by the end of counting (whenever that may be) that New Jersey will actually trend a bit Republican this year (Biden's popular vote lead will expand considerably when New York bothers to count their postal votes and the votes New Jersey itself is adding seem to be quite solidly Republican leaning). What's the reason behind this, as prior to the election it seemed to be conventional wisdom that it would be one of  Trump's worst states due to it being 'one large suburb'?

[forsythvoter]

How did Biden do so great in New England, yet mediocre in Upstate NY and the Upper Midwest? They were both settled by Yankees and have a similar political culture. If you are winning WWC Maine and RI, you should be winning Macomb and Bay counties in MI and the Driftless Area in WI.

Biden's CT 20 point margin was insane, I do remember people being nervous about the state long term, as the eastern part of the state is WWC and trended Trump in 2016.

Wait till NY is done counting

I suspect upstate NY is going to show similar trends as VT when all the mail-ins are counted. The mail-in votes counted so far are coming in 50-60% more Democratic margin-wise than the counted votes and these upstate counties have 15-30% of the vote yet to be counted. Wouldn't be surprised to even see a few counties close to VT flip if the remaining mail-in votes come in similarly.

Similarly, it looks like Nassau is almost certain to flip to Biden and likely by a margin greater than Clinton won it by, while Suffolk is likely going to end up quite close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Natives saving Biden's ass in AZ

[Alben Barkley]

Natives saving Biden's ass in AZ

I hope he returns the favor as president somehow. If any group deserves a break, Native Americans do. The environmental changes he’s set to make on day one I hope will be appreciated as a start.

[Rep Jessica]

Natives saving Biden's ass in AZ

I hope he returns the favor as president somehow. If any group deserves a break, Native Americans do. The environmental changes he’s set to make on day one I hope will be appreciated as a start.

He should pump about 5 billion dollars worth of infrastructure investment into their communities. Build up their roads, bridges and electrical infrastructure. Increase exist to internet and hospitals.

[KaiserDave]

MSNBC projects AZ

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1327102589633245185?s=21

[KaiserDave]

Natives saving Biden's ass in AZ

I hope he returns the favor as president somehow. If any group deserves a break, Native Americans do. The environmental changes he’s set to make on day one I hope will be appreciated as a start.

He should pump about 5 billion dollars worth of infrastructure investment into their communities. Build up their roads, bridges and electrical infrastructure. Increase exist to internet and hospitals.

Darn you're sounding like a Democrat Jessica

[BudgieForce]

Maricopa just dropped and I think Biden won the batch.

[sguberman]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1327103155662819328


https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1327103517669076995

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Natives saving Biden's ass in AZ

I hope he returns the favor as president somehow. If any group deserves a break, Native Americans do. The environmental changes he’s set to make on day one I hope will be appreciated as a start.

He should pump about 5 billion dollars worth of infrastructure investment into their communities. Build up their roads, bridges and electrical infrastructure. Increase exist to internet and hospitals.

Darn you're sounding like a Democrat Jessica

Jessica seems like a good person at the end of the day

[S019ian Liberal]

Cohn's gotten this one on the mark, hit its nail right for my head.


through to our best end: actually, tbh aha

> Some types of voters seem less willing to respond to polls than others, perhaps because they are less trusting of institutions, and these voters seem to lean Republican.