2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ferguson97]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Biden did worse than Hillary in NJ... I guess just an impact of higher turnout among rural Rs?

[forza nocta]

Biden went to the house he grew up in over 70 years ago, on election day, and signed that on the wall. You bet they are going to turn that into a national historic marker now

We were just <1% away from that becoming the biggest joke in US political history.

Would that be more or less embarrassing than Hillary's "happy birthday to this future president"?

Not only that, but Hillary had the audacity to do it AGAIN for Kamala’s birthday back in October. I thought she cursed Biden and that we were doomed.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1327063771290931203?s=20

Indeed. The last batch of votes went like this:

Biden +15,690
Trump +8,761

It also appears that Biden is likely currently ahead in Anchorage Alaska...

I crunched the 11/12/20 PM batch into the mix and currently Trump is leading by only (396) Votes.

This include State House Districts 12-28, and HD-12 is a "Partial Anchorage" district, where the four non-City precincts are overwhelmingly Republican.

Including HD-12 ALL, current % numbers are 48.4% Trump- 48.2% Biden   (+0.2% Trump).

I had previously attempted to review Anchorage Alaska 2016 numbers in a post on 8/8/20:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7502296#msg7502296

2016: Anchorage Alaska (Excluding the Absentee Ballots from HD-12) was 48.6% Trump- 39.6% Biden   (+9.0% R)

Here is a link to my Anchorage Alaska Update on 11/10/20 on this very thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.msg7761321#msg7761321

Also it looks like there are still some votes potentially out in Anchorage in HD-15 & HD-19 at a minimum, and quite possibly some of the other HD's showing only ~50% Turnout (TO).

[psychprofessor]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Biden did worse than Hillary in NJ... I guess just an impact of higher turnout among rural Rs?

Lots of ballots from Hudson and Essex counties to count - as of now they are still behind their 2016 totals so I would assume what will come in from here will break heavily for Biden.

[BudgieForce]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

NJ did trend Republican in 2016, but it was more a reversion to the norm because of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. 

I'm also not sure there's enough votes left to move the overall margin much more. But I'll keep an eye out. NJ is a state where Republicans have a high ceiling after all.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1327106303764860929



Pick up the ball and go home man, and come back next time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1327097656162783232

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

You can drive all way from Denver to Seattle and not leave a blue state. Incredible!

Thank you, Arizona!

[NOVA Green]

You can drive all way from Denver to Seattle and not leave a blue state. Incredible!

Thank you, Arizona!

Maybe BRTD needs to relocate to the Southwest...

[Alben Barkley]

You can drive all way from Denver to Seattle and not leave a blue state. Incredible!

Thank you, Arizona!

Fun fact: This is the first time this has been true since 1964.

And it’s the first time it’s been true of this particular route (CO-NM-AZ-CA-OR-WA) since 1936!

It would have been true in 1992 or 1996, but in 1992 Clinton won CO but narrowly lost AZ, then he won AZ but narrowly lost CO in 1996.

It also would have been true in the elections from 1940 through 1948, but FDR lost CO in 1940 and 1944, then Truman lost OR in 1948. However, you could have taken another route through WY/ID in 1948.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1327111023535517696?s=21

Biden's closing in on the record.

Which record?

Most votes in Philly for a Dem Presidential candidate. Biden is 26,000 votes away from breaking Obama's 2008 495k vote total.

[VAR]

Any chance Alaska votes to the left of Iowa?

[Alben Barkley]

Any chance Alaska votes to the left of Iowa?

I hope so. Alaska is a much cooler state, so even if it’s worth a few less EVs I’d rather have it on our side than Iowa going forward. Also it alone substantially increases the odds we win the majority of land mass in the nation, which Republicans seem to think matters.

[Bootes Void]

Why are 25-29 year olds much more republican than 18-24 year old? Seems weird

[Alben Barkley]

Why are 25-29 year olds much more republican than 18-24 year old? Seems weird

So much for the “conservative zoomers” meme. I guess not ALL the memes came true after all.

[n1240]

Maybe this was posted but Biden now leads in Nassau county:

Overall

Biden 293461 (49.7%)
Trump 290172 (49.1%)

Recent mail drop

Biden 13173 (77.2%)
Trump 3511 (20.6%)

[LimoLiberal]

Maybe this was posted but Biden now leads in Nassau county:

Overall

Biden 293461 (49.7%)
Trump 290172 (49.1%)

Recent mail drop

Biden 13173 (77.2%)
Trump 3511 (20.6%)

https://abc7ny.com/long-island-trump-nassau-county-suffolk-election-results/7712443/

Read this article and weep.

[n1240]

Maybe this was posted but Biden now leads in Nassau county:

Overall

Biden 293461 (49.7%)
Trump 290172 (49.1%)

Recent mail drop

Biden 13173 (77.2%)
Trump 3511 (20.6%)

https://abc7ny.com/long-island-trump-nassau-county-suffolk-election-results/7712443/

Read this article and weep.

Amazes me how lazy local media reporting can be with elections sometimes. Biden will probably win Long Island as a whole and has a shot at flipping Suffolk County looking at absentee data, but probably ends up falling a few points short.

[n1240]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

[Tender Branson]

Posted this in another thread, but here's the schedule for official certification dates:

November 13th
Mississippi

MS will definitely not certify statewide results today.

Only some 10 of 80+ counties have submitted their certified results as of today ...

[NOVA Green]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

Any updates on Indiana Election results (Especially interest of mine would be Allen County / Fort Wayne)?

Was never as obsessed with Hamilton County as others on the Forum, but fond memories of getting my nose busted in the early '90s in mass street demos against the KKK coming to town.   

[SingingAnalyst]

Why are 25-29 year olds much more republican than 18-24 year old? Seems weird

So much for the “conservative zoomers” meme. I guess not ALL the memes came true after all.

I am wondering the same thing. 25-39 y/o trended GOP, while 18-24 and 40 and older trended D. I can understand 65+ trending D because of COVID, but the others I cannot think of an explanation for.

Also, the gender gap is smaller this year, particularly among whites. White men in their 50s, who gave Reagan and Trump such commanding majorities, appear to have trended D this election.

[SingingAnalyst]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

I noticed that too. Trump's percentage in the Bronx is nearly double what it was in 2016 (about 17% vs. 9%). Any idea why that is? Trump improved in Manhattan too (from 10% to 15%).

Trump did carry Niagara County by 19 points, however. Niagara County, economically depressed due to the misfortune of being located on the wrong side of Niagara Falls, had voted for Carter in 1980 after the Love Canal environmental disaster, but has trended Republican since the Bill Clinton era ended.

[Annatar]

The swing to Biden in New Jersey is down to 1.8% now with more ballots counted, quite possible New Jersey will trend Republican this year again like it did in 2016, here is an interesting statistic, Biden is doing only 2.4% worse in Colorado than New Jersey, could Colorado vote to the left of New Jersey in 2024. 

I'd honestly be shocked if Biden did worse than Hillary in NJ... I guess just an impact of higher turnout among rural Rs?

I'm talking about the trend, not the swing, Biden will do better than Hillary in NJ, I am sure of that but it will shift to the right compared to the national swing.

[n1240]

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

Any updates on Indiana Election results (Especially interest of mine would be Allen County / Fort Wayne)?

Was never as obsessed with Hamilton County as others on the Forum, but fond memories of getting my nose busted in the early '90s in mass street demos against the KKK coming to town.   

Not too much interesting going on here until certification. Would be interested to see if Biden could win Fort Wayne though, believe Trump won by around 7% or so in 2016 and whole county swung pretty hard this year so might be likely that he. Won't get precinct info until certification though which is probably in a week or so I believe.

Spent a bit of time looking into NY. Looks like Biden is on pace to do around 5-7 points better than Clinton in non-NYC portion of state, but 4-6 points worse than Clinton in NYC. Balances out to NY swinging about 2% overall.

I noticed that too. Trump's percentage in the Bronx is nearly double what it was in 2016 (about 17% vs. 9%). Any idea why that is? Trump improved in Manhattan too (from 10% to 15%).

Trump did carry Niagara County by 19 points, however. Niagara County, economically depressed due to the misfortune of being located on the wrong side of Niagara Falls, had voted for Carter in 1980 after the Love Canal environmental disaster, but has trended Republican since the Bill Clinton era ended.

Niagara County probably ends up trending D in the end, think absentee ballots will bring the countywide margin to around 10% or so.

Absentees will bring Bronx and Manhattan margins down, but Bronx still swings around 9% in Trump's direction since 2016, might have to be a result of Trump's generally better performance among minorities compared to 2016.