Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Anyone have the exam schedules for Iowa State and U of Iowa?  I need to know which professors are rigging it against Sanders by scheduling exams Tuesday morning.  They are supposed to get their checks from the DNC but I lost the list.

[GeneralMacArthur]

That report that Biden is missing precinct captains is the first thing in his campaign to actually disturb me.

Say what you want about the insularity, inflexibility and overconfidence of the Clinton campaign, that unwieldy behemoth, but it was always a 100% professional outfit.  You would never imagine Clinton missing precinct captains.

In general it seems like the Biden campaign hasn't quite risen to the level of its predecessor establishment tentpole campaigns.  A lot of the highly competent and experienced staffers are working for Warren, Bloomberg, or Buttigieg.  It's also kind of irritating that Revolution Messaging, which is a lot of Obama-Biden 2008 alums, has been essentially running the Sanders campaign (or the part of the Sanders campaign that works really well).  But I guess they couldn't switch sides from 2016.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Ranch and pizza is a "traditional" meal? Yikes

It's probably a play on Pizza Ranch which is a popular chain in Iowa

[GeneralMacArthur]

So to summarize the results from the different camps:

Biden:  Wow you guys really screwed this up, we demand an explanation.  But yeah, our guy probably did pretty bad, really counting on that southern firewall.

Buttigieg:  Based on our data, we're pretty sure we won.  Hope it's confirmed soon.

Warren:  Whatever, we're on to New Hampshire.

Klobuchar:  Whatever, we're on to New Hampshire.

Sanders:  The DNC made this happen to disguise a huge Sanders victory.  We are going to release a hand-picked 40% of the results and tell people we won.  Mayor Pete made the app, in coordination with the Clinton campaign, to rig the election in his favor.  The DNC rigged the caucuses because one out of the 1700 precincts rounded the delegate distribution in Pete's favor.  #MayorCheat

[GeneralMacArthur]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

Who’s been saying that lmao

The way MacArthur's mind works is:

1) One random person who supports Bernie on twitter says something.
2) Therefore all Bernie supporters agree with that.
3) Therefore Bernie Sanders is horrible and Joe Biden is the most electable despite coming in 4th in Iowa and never having won a primary/caucus outside of his home state despite having run for President about 50 times and flaming out each time.

As if the entirety of social media and YouTube hasn't been drowning for the last four years in the left going "Hillary Clinton is a LOSER and everyone who supported her is also a LOSER and needs to SHUT UP" which always sparks this debate.

We can probably go to any of the recent threads about Hillary attacking Sanders and find multiple instances of this exchange.

I bet in six months you'll be trying to claim that the whole #MayorCheat thing was just a random person on Twitter and I was the only one to notice.

The extremists were humongous assholes for four years and think we're all going to suddenly forget if you just gaslight hard enough.  Not gonna happen.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Main reason why Pete is winning the SDEs:

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1225122759954575361?s=20

Pete went into every nook and cranny of this state and said, here's how this area works, let's come up with a strategy to win it.  He had huge fundraising numbers and appeal across every significant demographic group in the state.

It's a very impressive performance and shows why Pete would have been a good DNC party chair.  Certainly much better than Perez or (shudder) Ellison.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I have no idea what's going on in Iowa anymore.

I am very confident that the 538 model is incredibly stupid, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Some elements of Sanders twitter have turned incredibly toxic and people are forgetting how basic math works.

Brace for it.  This is like day 2 and we've got 277 more to go.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The fact that 2012 (R), 2016 (D), and 2020 (D) were all basically ties is just another reason to throw the Iowa caucuses in the dustbin of history.

This place doesn't decide a damn thing.  It just makes the election season start with a big confusing mess.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

That is basically cheating though.  You should vote in your precinct.  The satellite caucuses are only supposed to be for people who can't vote in their proper precinct.

Sanders basically abused a loophole where you can vote in any precinct you want so long as it's a satellite precinct, and spread his supporters out to pack all the satellites, which is the reason why he's getting a late comeback victory from all these satellite caucus results.  It's not against the rules, and Iowa is always a playground of dirty tricks.  But it is, in spirit, cheating.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

We've all been congratulatory of Mayor Pete, eye-rolling at the implosion engulfing the Sanders camp, and speculative about what this means for Biden+Bloomberg.

Sanders hasn't been the likely victor for even an hour and this thread already has a couple of "lol suck it haters, can't wait to watch you cry when Bernie wins" type takes.  And that's basically what all of social media is like too.

Stay mad.

{Hoes mad music video}

Don't hate us 'cause you ain't us

+ several more posters gleefully celebrating apparent cheating-ish behavior by Sanders.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

We've all been congratulatory of Mayor Pete, eye-rolling at the implosion engulfing the Sanders camp, and speculative about what this means for Biden+Bloomberg.

Sanders hasn't been the likely victor for even an hour and this thread already has a couple of "lol suck it haters, can't wait to watch you cry when Bernie wins" type takes.  And that's basically what all of social media is like too.

Stay mad.

{Hoes mad music video}

Don't hate us 'cause you ain't us

+ several more posters gleefully celebrating apparent cheating-ish behavior by Sanders.

So?

Just illustrates how this primary is a conflict between much more than simply two different ideologies.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Buttigieg isn't an establishment candidate anyway.  Nobody wanted him to get in the race and he was polling at 1% for months.  He wasn't competitive when he ran for DNC chair.  He's endorsed by six US representatives and three DNC members.  He's a mayor nobody's ever heard of with little history in the party.  That's hardly the profile of an establishment insider.

He is establishment relative to Sanders, simply because he doesn't actively try to make everyone hate him.  If Sanders wasn't in the race, Buttigieg would be the most outsider of the viable candidates.

You can say the same thing about progressive/moderate.  Everyone keeps calling Buttigieg a moderate simply because he's not as far left as Warren and Sanders.  But he has far more progressive positions and is much further left than Biden, Klobuchar, or the army of senators who burned out.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Buttigieg isn't an establishment candidate anyway.  Nobody wanted him to get in the race and he was polling at 1% for months.  He wasn't competitive when he ran for DNC chair.  He's endorsed by six US representatives and three DNC members.  He's a mayor nobody's ever heard of with little history in the party.  That's hardly the profile of an establishment insider.

He is establishment relative to Sanders, simply because he doesn't actively try to make everyone hate him.  If Sanders wasn't in the race, Buttigieg would be the most outsider of the viable candidates.

You can say the same thing about progressive/moderate.  Everyone keeps calling Buttigieg a moderate simply because he's not as far left as Warren and Sanders.  But he has far more progressive positions and is much further left than Biden, Klobuchar, or the army of senators who burned out.

Mate . . . he literally positioned himself as the anti-Medicare for All candidate.

You guys just keep changing the definition of "progressive" to mean "agrees with Bernie Sanders on everything."  He came up with a version of Medicare For All that accomplishes the exact same end result, but is revenue-neutral and much more politically popular.  I'd say that makes him a better progressive than Sanders.

So? I think the point is that the Sanders supporters are the ones creating division in the democratic camp by being incredibly sore losers and even worse winners, always cooking up conspiracy theories when they lose (and even sometimes when they don't) and wanting to stick it to the losers when they win. Remember that it is not just the "establishment" candidates who needs the support of Sandernistas if they win the nomination, Sanders desperately needs the support of all the center-left people and moderates in the democratic camp, if he wins the nomination. Actually sowing division is a really bad strategy if Sanders wants to be president and not just the democratic nominee. Party unity will be extremely important come november, regardless of who the nominee is. Please be mindful of this.

Oh please. Look on any of his posts on the Sanders campaign thread and you'll see just how deranged anti-Sanders folks are.

MacArthur derangement syndrome strikes again.  Y'all just post lies about me being some lunatic and expect everyone to believe it.  Go ahead and post my most "deranged" take from the last ten pages of the Sanders thread.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

85% in.

Pete’s lead expands to 45 delegate equivalents.

Pete won IA.

Lets go!

Suck it Bernie Bros!

I mean, how much more direct can it get?

Kudos, I forgot about that post.  Regardless of who wins, there's no point rubbing it in to the other side, no matter how they behave.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Hahahahahahaha my goodness this has a real chance of ending in a literal tie.

I wonder if the campaigns will spend the next few weeks litigating it when they literally both get 11 delegates no matter what, just to see who can claim victory, or if they'll move on.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Guys, can we get somewhat back on topic please?

People really need to stop responding to everything I post with a whole slew of personal attacks.

[GeneralMacArthur]

HOLY SH*T THEY PROJECT A F**KING TIE

hahahahahahahahahaha

I told you all a few pages back it would be a tie.

And then there will be a coin toss.

Which Buttigieg will of course win.

CNN will make the coin toss an hour-long special and have a bunch of coin toss experts on air to cross-examine the guy flipping the coin for any hint of bias.

All to determine who can claim victory in a contest where they're both getting 11 delegates.

[GeneralMacArthur]

TBH, at this point it's silly to say that anyone won this thing.  Look back at this thread and the sheer number of inconsistencies and data errors Atlas has found.  This is now so close that any one of those errors could swing the result.

We could say tonight that Buttigieg won and then find out in a week that Thelma Bowen from Grand Junction, IA accidentally read a 7 as a 1 on her results sheet and gave a delegate to Buttigieg that was meant to go to Biden.  And now Sanders is the victor!  Time for Buttigieg to grovel and apologize on Twitter and for the media to run days of headlines declaring Sanders the real winner.

Two days later we discover that Wayne Hansford of Emmetsburg, IA thought he had lost the last page of his results tally, but actually it was under the front seat of his truck, and it has 18 more votes that are enough to give Buttigieg another SDE.  Now Buttigieg is the victor!  Time for Sanders to grovel and apologize on Twitter and for the media to run days of headlines declaring Buttigieg the real winner.

Then a week after that, Beverly Gibbons of West Branch, IA discovers that she did her math wrong, and accidentally allocated Klobuchar a delegate when she only got 14.6% in the final precinct vote.  That delegate goes to Sanders instead.  Now Sanders is the victor!  Time for Buttigieg to grovel and apologize on Twitter and for the media to run days of headlines declaring Sanders the real winner.

The reason we don't use caucuses for actual elections is that there's an insane amount of human error involved.  At least in the Bush-Gore race we had a paper trail and real, hard copies of verifiable punch-cards to look at.  This is a race that will never truly be decided because whoever "wins" will be bedeviled by an endless parade of stories of voting inconsistencies in their favor.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Bernie ends up winning this, Pete comes out of the whole thing diminished as a candidate and a human being.

If the media reports on it properly, sure.

The debate will surely be the opportunity for Bernie to announce his victory in a way that everyone can hear about it. It may not do much, but it will surely make it awkward for Buttigieg and possibly blunt whatever momentum he has.

"It's funny, you're saying I said I won, and the media says that I said that as well.  But I never said that.  I said we had a victorious night, and we did.  We got twice as many votes as many polls predicted.  We beat all the pundits who said our campaign didn't have a chance.  We showed that an LGBT man can compete and nearly win on the toughest political stage in this country..." and so on and so forth.

It's an easy pivot for Pete.

[GeneralMacArthur]

You guys act like giving a "victory speech" when the odds are extremely in your favor is the scandal of the century.

Mitt Romney gave a victory speech in 2012.  Nobody cared when he ended up not winning.

[GeneralMacArthur]

TBH, at this point it's silly to say that anyone won this thing.  Look back at this thread and the sheer number of inconsistencies and data errors Atlas has found.  This is now so close that any one of those errors could swing the result.

I definitely agree that this (and all close elections) should not be paraded around as wins, especially when they make up only a small part of the total process. No one goes out and celebrates 'cause they won a county 52-48. As has been repeated ad nauseam, Iowa's significance is almost entirely a weirdly overplayed emphasis on who narrowly wins first place, even though it has 1) only 1% of the total number of pledged delegates and 2) is proportional, just like every other Democratic primary/caucus.

Unfortunately, coming from you, it's frustrating to hear. Almost all of your previous posts in this thread have either been complaining about Sanders, complaining about the Sanders campaign, or complaining about Sanders supporters. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was complimenting his efforts to find supporters in "every nook and cranny" of the state. Now that Sanders looks close, it's complaining about Sanders cheating by focusing on a get out the vote effort for satellite caucuses. When it looked like Buttigieg was ahead, it was insinuating that Sanders supporters couldn't accept a loss even after mocking Hillary for her own. Now that Sanders looks close, it's a call for viewing the results as a tie.

Your calls for unity and a critical view of what went down in Iowa wring hollow when they only show up when the results are in question, even if your ultimate conclusion is something everyone in this thread can agree with.

The posts about Buttigieg winning were when it was looking like a 2-3% Buttigieg victory, which is a solid win.  It wouldn't have been reasonable to talk about a tie then.

Now it's looking like a dead tie where a victor will be declared based on tiny fractions of a delegate, as determined by providence in human error.  So those are two very different results.  It's not like I switched to calling for a tie as soon as Sanders moved ahead.  I began thinking it should just be a tie after three hours of watching the pendulum swing back and forth based on "oops we accidentally counted 18 Sanders votes for Tom Steyer"

The inane conspiracy theories and temper tantrums that completely took over Twitter in the 48 hours following the election deserve to be mocked no matter what.  And I would say that about any candidate's supporters.  Just that I never have to because you never see Warren supporters collectively losing their minds and coming up with idiotic conspiracy theories.

The practice of bussing voters to a different precinct to get more delegates via a loophole deserves to be called out even if it's not, legally speaking, cheating.  That doesn't mean Sanders "rigged the election" or anything, just that he abused a loophole in the new rules.  Up to the reader to decide whether or not that's ethical.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1225429100363382784?s=21

[GeneralMacArthur]

It's for the best.  This is just ludicrous and slapdash.  At least with a recanvass we can have a modicum of faith in the final count.  Any impact that Iowa was going to have on New Hampshire has already been blown.