Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Florida Man for Crime]

So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

Will have to redo my calculations with the new results, but at the 94% update I found that it's extremely probable there is a pledged delegate tie if Sanders wins on SDEs; if Buttigieg leads on SDEs he would be ahead on pledged delegates 14-12 over Sanders.

Pledged delegates are actually determined at the conventions though, which is not for several months. In the past the #s of delegates actually determined at the conventions have differed from what they supposedly would be, this is because not everyone who is a delegate shows up for the conventions - generally the more enthusiastic and organized campaigns have delegates that show up more.

[cvparty]

omg i took a nap and i missed all of THIS wtf

[GeneralMacArthur]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

That is basically cheating though.  You should vote in your precinct.  The satellite caucuses are only supposed to be for people who can't vote in their proper precinct.

Sanders basically abused a loophole where you can vote in any precinct you want so long as it's a satellite precinct, and spread his supporters out to pack all the satellites, which is the reason why he's getting a late comeback victory from all these satellite caucus results.  It's not against the rules, and Iowa is always a playground of dirty tricks.  But it is, in spirit, cheating.

[Adam Griffin]

Glorious Strategy!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If team Buttigieg is so concerned about potential manipulation of the SDE count we could always just look at the popular vote and use that to decide who wins.

[It’s so Joever]

If team Buttigieg is so concerned about potential manipulation of the SDE count we could always just look at the popular vote and use that to decide who wins.

Lol good response

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

just to reiterate:

AAAAAAAAAAA

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If team Buttigieg is so concerned about potential manipulation of the SDE count we could always just look at the popular vote and use that to decide who wins.

Yes, doesn't all that complaint prove is that SDEs are bullsh**t in deciding who is the winner? It's not like Buttigieg was complaining when he concentrated his campaign in white, rural areas which are disproportionately allocated SDEs.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

That is basically cheating though.  You should vote in your precinct.  The satellite caucuses are only supposed to be for people who can't vote in their proper precinct.

Sanders basically abused a loophole where you can vote in any precinct you want so long as it's a satellite precinct, and spread his supporters out to pack all the satellites, which is the reason why he's getting a late comeback victory from all these satellite caucus results.  It's not against the rules, and Iowa is always a playground of dirty tricks.  But it is, in spirit, cheating.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If team Buttigieg is so concerned about potential manipulation of the SDE count we could always just look at the popular vote and use that to decide who wins.

AYYY

[Florida Man for Crime]

Cool! Raises my opinion of Sanders even further.

The truth is that Sanders had nothing to do with this. Not like he pays attention to weird little quirks in caucus delegate allocation rules, that is the job of the staff.

[It’s so Joever]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

That is basically cheating though.  You should vote in your precinct.  The satellite caucuses are only supposed to be for people who can't vote in their proper precinct.

Sanders basically abused a loophole where you can vote in any precinct you want so long as it's a satellite precinct, and spread his supporters out to pack all the satellites, which is the reason why he's getting a late comeback victory from all these satellite caucus results.  It's not against the rules, and Iowa is always a playground of dirty tricks.  But it is, in spirit, cheating.

Cool! Raises my opinion of Sanders even further.

We don’t have verification this is happening on a large scale/Sanders is invoked in anyway, but even if it did you would be proud?
Please, you and thousands of “Revolutionaries” would be tweeting a hell storm and manipulating the media narrative if the roles were reversed.
Tbh you getting dangerously close to making Trump supporters seem normal.

[John Dule]

538 says that Sanders is now leading the final vote count in the first district as well. Good to see my prediction instincts aren't completely rusty.

[NOVA Green]

Making an attempt to collect data on the CD-01 satellites:

Cedar Rapids Public Library: Sanders 9 Warren 6 Buttigieg 5
Hoover Elementary: Sanders 107
Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: Klobuchar 4 Buttigieg 2 Warren 1 Biden 1
RWDSU Local 110: Sanders 18 Biden 2

Sanders also reportedly received 7 county level delegates at the Kirkwood CC satellite caucus, not sure how that would translate to SDEs though.

4/12 (kinda 5/12) accounted for, will be a matter of how many satellites are like Hoover Elementary

Welcome to Atlas btw!!!

Awesome to see new Forum Members jump in and provide real time info during election season...

So many initial posters pad vote county to get their stripes, get into it with folks involving political debates and philosophy that are irrelevant....

Looking forward to seeing your future contributions in the '20 Election Cycle and helping to "Bird Doggin'" some of the results for the rest of us....

We need more poster like you to jump into the mix and provide value added content....

Many Atlas posters won't likely catch the ref about the dawgs, but it's a real deal in Downstate Oregon.... 

[BlueSwan]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Yes. It is convenient. But not intentional.

Man I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory.

This stuff always does seem to happen to Bernie though. It is sort of uncanny.

It really doesn't though. There have been plenty of "unusual" stuff happening to the benefit of Sanders.

First up, the media, and Rachel Maddow in particular, thought it was great fun to prop up this little known obscure senator from Vermont in 2015 to make some sort of a race against Clinton (it is often overlooked that the media more than being biased, just wants a good story). I swear there was a period of a few months during 2015 where Maddow EVERY SINGLE NIGHT would report on the record crowds that Sanders was getting at his rallies. Every night.

Second, some of the greatest anomalies from the 2016 primaries actually benefitted Sanders. The single biggest upset was in Michigan (as far as I remember, can't be bothered to look it up now), where Sanders won despite being down by double digits in the polls. I'm positive that had it been the other way around, the Sandernistas would have cried foul game.

Third, the "rigged" system often benefitted Sanders, like the entire stupid caucus system. Sanders pretty consistently got slaughtered by Clinton in "real" primaries, but he won at caucuses which has much lower participation rates and where having a fired up or even abusive supporter base helps a lot.

Fourth, this Iowa satellite caucus thing...it's totally legit, but we all know how the Sandernistas would have reacted had it been Buttigieg employing this strategy. Don't act like you don't know that to be 100% true. Youtube and Twitter would have exploded with DNC/Buttigieg conspiracy theories.

[jimrtex]

It really depends how big of a share Warren takes from Bernie in the satellite for CD1

I'm looking at the satellite results and they don't make sense.

Either I don't understand how they are calculated, or the IDP doesn't understand.

I think the NYT needle is at 50/50.

Wasn't it you that said there can only be a max of 9 SDEs per CD satellite? If that's true - and even if Sanders wins like 70% of the SDEs there - then that's not enough to overcome his 3.4 SDE deficit right now + the (going on RI's data prior) 5 net delegates that NYT thinks he'll get from traditional precincts.

4-9 delegate positions per satellite precinct. Looking at the At Large results, the SDE are quantized for a given caucus, so that for example one of the Florida caucuses the results are Klobuchar 4, Biden 3, Buttigieg 2.

But the SDE per delegate position varies between satellite caucuses. So maybe they are weighting the delegate positions based on overall attendance.

The number of total SDE per virtual county depends on the total number of participants in the satellite caucuses for an in-state CD. Total attendance for CD 3 was 1810, which should step up the number of SDE for that CD.

[Adam Griffin]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Yes. It is convenient. But not intentional.

Man I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory.

This stuff always does seem to happen to Bernie though. It is sort of uncanny.

It really doesn't though. There have been plenty of "unusual" stuff happening to the benefit of Sanders.

First up, the media, and Rachel Maddow in particular, thought it was great fun to prop up this little known obscure senator from Vermont in 2015 to make some sort of a race against Clinton (it is often overlooked that the media more than being biased, just wants a good story). I swear there was a period of a few months during 2015 where Maddow EVERY SINGLE NIGHT would report on the record crowds that Sanders was getting at his rallies. Every night.

Second, some of the greatest anomalies from the 2016 primaries actually benefitted Sanders. The single biggest upset was in Michigan (as far as I remember, can't be bothered to look it up now), where Sanders won despite being down by double digits in the polls. I'm positive that had it been the other way around, the Sandernistas would have cried foul game.

Third, the "rigged" system often benefitted Sanders, like the entire stupid caucus system. Sanders pretty consistently got slaughtered by Clinton in "real" primaries, but he won at caucuses which has much lower participation rates and where having a fired up or even abusive supporter base helps a lot.

Fourth, this Iowa satellite caucus thing...it's totally legit, but we all know how the Sandernistas would have reacted had it been Buttigieg employing this strategy. Don't act like you don't know that to be 100% true. Youtube and Twitter would have exploded with DNC/Buttigieg conspiracy theories.

Don't hate us 'cause you ain't us

[It’s so Joever]

Man when Bernie inevitably loses to Trump, I will be very sad, but at least getting to watch the Twitter/Atlas meltdown will be entertaining.

[Dr. Arch]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20

Now THAT is 5D Chess

[BlueSwan]

Anyway, you won't hear complaints about this from me. The system is the way it is. It may be stupid, but it is what it is. If the Sanders camp found this satellite "loophole" and used that to their advantage then more power to them.

Hate the rules, don't hate the candidates who play by them. That is and has always been my position. It is why I am also 100% fine with democratic candidates taking money from big corporations, as long as they don't cave to the demands of those corporations. Work to change the rules, but don't handicap yourself while the stupid rules are in place.

[NOVA Green]

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

At least in part, that is because there aren't any Buttigieg supporters. Well, except for Tender Bredesen, but he is not even American and has time zone issues and is presumably asleep.

He usually wakes up around 4:20 AM according to his own post on this very thread pages back, so hopefully he has a strong one in his hand to digest the results.... 

Still, no question Pete did well and Tender did essentially in his last post concede the point that maybe Sanders might actually win the SDE vote theoretically....

Don't deny the Man a moment of victory before the cold hard truth of the Morning Hangover, with an extremely stiff cup of Joe awakens him as he carefully peruses the results from his Austrian Village....

[GeneralMacArthur]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

We've all been congratulatory of Mayor Pete, eye-rolling at the implosion engulfing the Sanders camp, and speculative about what this means for Biden+Bloomberg.

Sanders hasn't been the likely victor for even an hour and this thread already has a couple of "lol suck it haters, can't wait to watch you cry when Bernie wins" type takes.  And that's basically what all of social media is like too.

Stay mad.

{Hoes mad music video}

Don't hate us 'cause you ain't us

+ several more posters gleefully celebrating apparent cheating-ish behavior by Sanders.

[Ebsy]

So here is where we are with 7 of the 13 caucus sites accounted for:

CD1 Satellite: Cedar Rapids Public Library, Whipple Auditorium: 24
CD1 Satellite: Hoover Elementary School: 121
CD1 Satellite: RWDSU Local 110: 20
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 838: 20
CD1 Satellite: Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: 72
CD1 Satellite: Kirkwood Community College Recreation Center : at least 61
CD1 Satellite: Drake Library: 98

Might be mid sized
CD1 Satellite: University of Dubuque Blades Chapel; Charles and Romonda Myers Center

Union Halls
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 893
CD1 Satellite: UAW Local 94

Retirement Homes
CD1 Satellite: Edgewood Convalescent
CD1 Satellite: Faith Luthern Home
CD1 Satellite: The Meth-Wick Community

There were at least 416 caucus attendees, so there need to be 185 more to reach 601 to double the number of delegates.

[Skye]

Just woke up to this beautiful mess.

Would be funny if Sanders ends up winning but Buttigieg gets most of the surge thanks to the disaster IA Dems created.

[John Dule]

If we go back to all the pages when Buttigieg was winning, you won't find a single person going "lol suck it Bernie Bros" or anything similar.  I didn't write anything like that.  None of the other anti-Sanders people did either.

We've all been congratulatory of Mayor Pete, eye-rolling at the implosion engulfing the Sanders camp, and speculative about what this means for Biden+Bloomberg.

Sanders hasn't been the likely victor for even an hour and this thread already has a couple of "lol suck it haters, can't wait to watch you cry when Bernie wins" type takes.  And that's basically what all of social media is like too.

Stay mad.

{Hoes mad music video}

Don't hate us 'cause you ain't us

+ several more posters gleefully celebrating apparent cheating-ish behavior by Sanders.

I honestly thought you'd have the good sense to stop posting here after Alfred Jones smacked you down on the last page. Once again I've overestimated you.