Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Florida Man for Crime]

So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

A SDE tie is certain. And then the Iowa Democratic Party will invite a representative from both campaigns for a coin toss (which naturally, Buttigieg will win).

This is what the Iowa Democratic Party had planned all along. They just wanted to string it out over a few days to make it look more plausible.

[It’s so Joever]

So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

A SDE tie is certain. And then the Iowa Democratic Party will invite a representative from both campaigns for a coin toss (which naturally, Buttigieg will win).

This is what the Iowa Democratic Party had planned all along. They just wanted to string it out over a few days to make it look more plausible.

Insane, even after the sudden Bernie wins from satellites, you still are peddling conspiracies? If the DNC wanted to rig it against Bernie, they would have done it far better.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Insane, even after the sudden Bernie wins from satellites, you still are peddling conspiracies? If the DNC wanted to rig it against Bernie, they would have done it far better.

I was never peddling conspiracies, I am joking around.

[BP🌹]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

[It’s so Joever]

Insane, even after the sudden Bernie wins from satellites, you still are peddling conspiracies? If the DNC wanted to rig it against Bernie, they would have done it far better.

I was never peddling conspiracies, I am joking around.

Oh sorry, it’s hard for me to tell the difference, especially online.

[It’s so Joever]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

[n1240]

Making an attempt to collect data on the CD-01 satellites:

Cedar Rapids Public Library: Sanders 9 Warren 6 Buttigieg 5
Hoover Elementary: Sanders 107
Mayflower Retirement Community Carmen Center: Klobuchar 4 Buttigieg 2 Warren 1 Biden 1
RWDSU Local 110: Sanders 18 Biden 2

Sanders also reportedly received 7 county level delegates at the Kirkwood CC satellite caucus, not sure how that would translate to SDEs though.

4/12 (kinda 5/12) accounted for, will be a matter of how many satellites are like Hoover Elementary

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways Bernie will probably take this barring some low turnout in the Sateillites/some Pete landslides on land. Sucks, but they made their choice.

[Adam Griffin]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

That's because all of Buttigieg's supporters are either 70 years old or live in Austria, so they're asleep right now.

[Oryxslayer]

TBH this is the literal definition of a tie (I got no horse, I dislike nearly all of our options this cycle) and that's how it will probably go down on the wikipedia page. When concerning the two candidates, they don't care. Bernie and Buttigeig are at this point pulling from different sides of the very divided democratic primary electorate, so since they both claimed victory then that is a victory to their team. However...we are election nerds and we need to find a winner.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Tepper_Dylan/status/1225292415222808576

Exciting!

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

At least in part, that is because there aren't any Buttigieg supporters. Well, except for Tender Bredesen, but he is not even American and has time zone issues and is presumably asleep.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The fact that 2012 (R), 2016 (D), and 2020 (D) were all basically ties is just another reason to throw the Iowa caucuses in the dustbin of history.

This place doesn't decide a damn thing.  It just makes the election season start with a big confusing mess.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

[n1240]

So basically, this will come down to:

1) How much Sanders wins the final satellite by, and

2) If the remaining in-state precincts go the way we think they will

That right? How likely is a pledged delegate tie, at this point?

Will have to redo my calculations with the new results, but at the 94% update I found that it's extremely probable there is a pledged delegate tie if Sanders wins on SDEs; if Buttigieg leads on SDEs he would be ahead on pledged delegates 14-12 over Sanders.

[izixs]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Yes. It is convenient. But not intentional.

Man I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory.

[NOVA Green]

Did Bernie just backdoor Pete's campaign via the satellites? What a volta!

Bernie's always got a "backdoor man"... he's not opposed at all to the cause.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Yes. It is convenient. But not intentional.

Man I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory.

Never said there was a conspiracy. Just very convenient.

[BlueSwan]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Pretty much. Sanders supporters are the only ones on the Democratic side cooking up conspiracy theories and talking about things being rigged against them whenever a result appears that they don't like. The only other people doing this are the Trump supporters.

[It’s so Joever]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Very convenient that Pete was winning until the very end after Twitter progressives raised hell and threw a tantrum.....

[Dr. Arch]

Did Bernie just backdoor Pete's campaign via the satellites? What a volta!

Bernie's always got a "backdoor man"... he's not opposed at all to the cause.

 

[Florida Man for Crime]

The fact that 2012 (R), 2016 (D), and 2020 (D) were all basically ties is just another reason to throw the Iowa caucuses in the dustbin of history.

This place doesn't decide a damn thing.  It just makes the election season start with a big confusing mess.

For once, a MacArthur post that I can wholeheartedly endorse.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Very convenient that the IDP withheld the full results long enough to give Buttigieg a few days of media coverage as the 'winner' and depriving Sanders of a bounce before New Hampshire. Very convenient for him.

Yes. It is convenient. But not intentional.

Man I'm so tired of this conspiracy theory.

This stuff always does seem to happen to Bernie though. It is sort of uncanny.

[The Mikado]

The fact that 2012 (R), 2016 (D), and 2020 (D) were all basically ties is just another reason to throw the Iowa caucuses in the dustbin of history.

This place doesn't decide a damn thing.  It just makes the election season start with a big confusing mess.

Iowa has decisively proven it's not up to the task of being an early state. Just demote them out of the early list, bump NH, NV (as a primary), and SC up one, and add a new state into the #4 early state slot.

[YE]

Had the roles been switched and it had been Sanders leading in SDEs up to the last minute, Twitter would have a literal meltdown as would a lot of users on here.

You mean that people are happy about their candidate winning and unhappy about their candidate losing? Shocking!

Nope, I don’t see any Buttigieg supporters complaining about these new developments being “rigging” by the DNC/whatever. The differences between Sanders supporters and normal candidate supporters grow each day.

Tbf there are very few Buttigieg supporters on Atlas so it's hard to evaluate. A could make a strong case that "Sanders supporters" are the new normal but that's for another thread.

FWIW, re: Buttigieg supporters.


https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225296836266745857?s=20