Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nate Cohn reports that new data will bring us up to 71% and has Buttigieg in a 25 SDE lead.

He's already at a 25 SDE lead.

Thank you for that very astute observation.

[Oryxslayer]

the fact that a lot of urban areas are out (just in terms of precincts, not even talking about population) gives me hope that Bernie can pull this one out, although it'd be close either way

This is pretty much going to be a tie in the end, and I feel like the major takeaway is going to be that Joe Biden got smoked like a deli turkey.

Agreed. After having CNN on in the background for a day (that I only paid very little attention to) it does not appear Buttigieg is getting the winners bump. I don't think they really discussed him that much outside of his 'historic moment.' The slow process of results, the tightness of the results between him and Sanders, and the confusing nature of the three returns makes it difficult to translate on TV. However, none of those things apply to Biden. Only having above 15% with 62% in and being definitely below other candidates is clearly indictable to a TV audience. A loss is easier to distinguish from a win. So he is likely to end up as the major story out of Iowa, not the winner if it is ever announced.

[Tender Branson]

71% and still ahead ?

Nice.

But I will only be fully chillaxing when 90-95% is reported ...

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

[Gass3268]

Buttigieg and Sanders are now tied when it comes to SDEs in Polk County.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

The SDE determines the delegate numbers unless I’m mistaken

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

The SDE determines the delegate numbers unless I’m mistaken

Yes, so report the projected delegate total then. Whether Buttigieg has a 25 SDE lead is irrelevant if he's projected to get the same number of delegates as Sanders. That's not a win.

[Gass3268]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

SDEs have always been the metric used, so that’s what the media is using. The AP will give the checkmark to the SDE winner.

[Gass3268]

Buttigieg and Sanders are now tied when it comes to SDEs in Polk County.

Source?

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1224917464934383616?s=21

[LAKISYLVANIA]

needle will be updated according to Nate Cohn. If it's updated, can someone screenshot it.

[RI]

Just saw the precinct map on NYT update.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why does the SDE lead even matter? The popular vote total matters for how candidates will perform in the primary contests, and the delegate total matters for winning the nomination. The SDE is irrelevant except insofar as it is related to the other two.

SDEs have always been the metric used, so that’s what the media is using. The AP will give the checkmark to the SDE winner.

Only because the popular vote total hasn't been available in previous caucases. But now it's available that's clearly the most relevant metric for how well a candidate will do in New Hampshire or Super Tuesday where they don't have SDEs!

[Gass3268]

needle will be updated according to Nate Cohn. If it's updated, can someone screenshot it.

Needle is up to 81% for Buttigieg.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Needle is updated, pointed more towards a Butti win, a 1.5 win for ButtiPete on average, but we have to see which precincts are still missing. Satelitte caucuses still missing, it seems like the city of Davenport, Cedar Rapids and some key precincts in Des Moines itself are missing, but even than it seems unlikely Sanders will catch up.

[Oryxslayer]

Buttegieg leads in Polk on Final Allotment by 94 votes according to DDHQ thanks to the  new data, though he still loses by 600 on round 1. It seems possible that Pete will get the county when this is all said and done.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

NYT updated. Sanders up by 0.1. Warren as well.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie ahead in first round by 3.9k votes and 2nd round by 1.3k votes.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Biden down to 15.4 from 15.6. He might be missing out the 15 threshold, and only have delegates in the districts.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I can't wait for the Bernie Bros who spent four years mocking Hillary for losing and insisting that the popular vote doesn't matter, to now turn around and insist that the popular vote is the only thing that matters.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Congrats Mayor Butt Judge!

[Ebsy]

Sanders lead in the first round expanded by 482 votes, looks like what reported was a mix of stuff. Most of Waterloo/Cedar Falls and Davenport along with portions of Des Moines are still out along with the satellites, so expect Sanders to continue to gain.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Still some city precincts to get in. But I don't think Sanders will make up for it. Probably tighten/narrow the gap for it, but i'm putting more hopes in getting Biden beneath the 15 threshold.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No more results for tonight, folks.

Go to bed.

[n1240]

Possible that Warren wins Jefferson County and we'll have five different candidates winning at least one county. NYTimes currently projects the county to be tied between Sanders and Warren.

[Oryxslayer]

Biden down to 15.4 from 15.6. He might be missing out the 15 threshold, and only have delegates in the districts.

Seems clear that this is going to be the problem. A slow drip of results that could end with Biden dancing around or under the threshold is not good for his campaign. Especially since the media has centered on the "Biden lost" story, since there is no clear "x won" story.

Gonna be funny if the democratic establishment candidate ends up screwed by democratic party unintentional incompetence.