2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[ExSky]

Travis finishes at 399,954 total today. Oh so close to my coveted 400k! They will easily hit over 500k total over the next week, setting an all time record for raw total turnout. I think the bigger question is if they can get to 600k by the end of early voting, which would blow the doors off of all expectations. They just need to average just shy of the same 30k a day that they’ve been doing all week, but the slow weekend will probably put pressure on the week days to overcompensate.

Insane turnout. Also, Cameron and Hidalgo both increased from yesterday! 4K and 8k respectively. Both counties at about 75% of total 2016 turnout, and will likely exceed 100% by next week, which was my benchmark for Biden. EDIT: Webb also up slightly compared to yesterday, adding 2.6k and are now at a new record 34k for EV. I am hopeful they can get to at least 50k by the end of EV.

If even 600k happens for total turnout, Biden could net 300k in Travis. He’s probably going to net 300k in Harris. that cuts Down a majority of Cruz’s margin over Beto.

[ExSky]

@TRElections
Whoa.
 2016 and 2020 basically reversed. Remember, nearly 80% of Arizona voters voted by mail in the 2018 general election. In 2016, nearly 69% of Arizona voters voted by mail. There may not be a huge general election in person surge for Republicans. AZ has a long VBM history
Quote Tweet
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru
@Garrett_Archer
 · 29m
Just about to put the kid down, but this is worth a tweet.

Maricopa County:
2016 - all early ballots returned prior to election day:
Total: 1,025,703
R: 421,566
D: 327,546
O: 276,591

2020 - Early ballots
Total: 1,064,013
R: 379,435
D: 421,241
O: 263,337

Have a good night.

Blue Arizona is basically confirmed.

[ExSky]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

Republicans don’t have nearly the voters to make this up. Arizona is gone for the GOP

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320387433792503808?s=21

Oof the In person gap is slowing down already. Republicans can’t keep up.

[ExSky]

Does the early vote look bad or even "meh" for Democrats anywhere EXCEPT Florida?

AZ and (possibly) PA look brutal for the GOP. NV looks like there's a predictable firewall forming.

EV looks fine in Florida (even more so if you follow the conventional logic that NPAs are breaking hard for Biden) and absolutely amazing everywhere else.

The only reason you’re reading what you’re reading here, is because Florida is the only place the GOP isn’t getting absolutely blown to kingdom come, so it’s becone a coping mechanism for Blue avatars.

[ExSky]

Madison, Wisconsin will probably pass 100,00 votes either tomorrow or Tuesday (depending on the mail).

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1320536948067520514?s=21

Wow registering 30,000 in a city that size so recently seems like a massive amount.  Did Dems basically just microtarget Madison and its suburbs to win Wisconsin this year?

It's been a statewide effort that is worlds more effective than whatever HRC did in 2016.

It's becoming pretty clear that the HRC was run horribly.  Next time Democrats should have a more fair primary process rather than anointing a campaign.  Otherwise you get a campaign that's objectively weak. 

Hillary was given every advantage in the primary. Biden had a campaign that was being laughed at....and then the voters resurrected him and sh**t everybody else down. Biden is true appeal

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320725306743922688?s=21 back to the slaughter

Once again, Dems have a +355K lead with one week left. Reps are going to be needing a lot more than a +6K lead to move that needle.

it’s 6k at 10am.  It’s gonna be 30k-40k by EOD

And that’s not factoring in mail ins. Definitely not enough. Blue avatars had a nice couple of days there trying to get everyone to panic.

[ExSky]

 50k day OTW

I appreciate the updates, but the turnout guesses, especially without VBM context, are wholly unnecessary.

This is about the only think that Buzz can hang his hat on right now. It looks so bleak everywhere else he has to take even meh numbers from Florida and blow them out of proportion

[ExSky]

Massive PA update:

Dems 1,193,887 (69.7%)
Reps 355,317 (20.8%)
Other 162,813 (9.5%)

Democrats have returned 63% of their ballots. Reps only 47%. Dems lead on Friday was +730K. It is now +839K.

PA, AZ, and TX all looking really impressive for Biden.

We need to fire up a "PADems to +1,000,000" meme in the same vein as the "FLDems to +600,000" meme from a few weeks ago.

Funny how the blue avatars are completely ignoring this while pretending that the numbers in Florida are somehow bad for Joe. This is absolutely disastrous for Trump.

[ExSky]

So the 600k VBM Target has been hit. What’s the talking point now?

[ExSky]

This may not e a realignment year completely, but it’s certainly a realignment for Texas. The voter turnout increase is stunning. Gonna be a whole new state.

[ExSky]

Blue avatar gloating the last few days about Florida was particularly comical because it’s clearly not enough to catch the net lead the Dems have, and because it’s going to result in a far lower Election  day surge they were all expecting.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321608439689211904

definitely bad for Dems, or at least that's the tone he'll have

He already did this update. It was pretty good for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321617900596154371?s=20

Imagine trying this hard to remain relevant

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

[ExSky]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

[ExSky]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

To most rational people this was obvious. But it was fun for some to pretend it wasn’t the case for a few days as a coping mechanism.

[ExSky]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

Aren't there 7 million more people in Texas? jeez what's the turnout in elections there? 40%?

Hey I didn’t say it out of celebration LoL. More out of relief. But yes turnout is putrid primarily due to low Hispanic turnout (Read: suppression)

[ExSky]

Imagine if Texas votes to the left of Michigan lol

Don’t think that’s gonna happen. If it did my jaw might actually break off my face. It would be a seismic shift in American politics.

[ExSky]

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321993217638846466

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321996630439137280

Anyone who talks like this is seeking attention and needs to be filtered out.

[ExSky]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Because it is a few days before an election, and at this point it is a second nature unconscious tic to always worry about Miami-Dade County, regardless of the circumstances.

Either "Miami-Dade County will be bad" or "Miami-Dade County will be good, but not good enough." At least it isn't any worse than worrying about the I-4 corridor.

Everyone is freaking out about Miami-Dade and missing the fact that Trump could end up with under 55% in Lake and Marion counties and might even lose Sarasota county.

Don’t you know? Only the places where Dems look vulnerable count. Nowhere else.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1322162797459828737

If this is even close to true, good night Irene

[ExSky]

Ralstons really out here role playing like Nevada was a swing state this cycle. Took us a week for him to get to what everyone already knew. But we’re supposed to deify him why?

[ExSky]

I hope that the Republicans realize that this is a fight for their survival and that 100% of them will vote.

If you’re hoping for 100% turnout to win, you’ve already lost. Florida was a false promise. I know you guys expected to blow by the Dems in total early vote, but it’s just not happening. Dems don’t even need Miami Dade to turnout more than they already are

[ExSky]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

As a resident of Forsyth County, I'll point out that that increase in turnout almost exactly matches the county's population growth during the same period (estimated 220K in 2016 to 252K in 2020).

Which is excellent considering we have the biggest day of voting left to go. Should far outpace population growth by Tuesday.

[ExSky]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.

You think? I assume most are under 35 and transplants which would seem like a liberal group. Even at 50-50, that's Trump 65-Biden 35.

Also, a good chunk of them are highly educated professional or technical workers, with quite a few minorities.  There is a thriving Indian-American community in the county.

A little thing that helps illustrate this is no longer your father's Forsyth County: https://www.atlantacricketfields.com/course.

Purely anecdotal, but yeah one of the brightest (and prettiest) girls that I know lives in Forsyth -- she's Sri-Lankan. 

And she’s not posting on the forum because...?

because you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy