2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[ExSky]

I hope that the Republicans realize that this is a fight for their survival and that 100% of them will vote.

If you’re hoping for 100% turnout to win, you’ve already lost. Florida was a false promise. I know you guys expected to blow by the Dems in total early vote, but it’s just not happening. Dems don’t even need Miami Dade to turnout more than they already are

[soundchaser]

Could the low turnout in Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia be viewed as a lack of enthusiasm for Trump? They were some of Trump's biggest margins in 2016.

Not necessarily -- it could also mean that Trump's base is, generally speaking, waiting to vote on election day. (I'm not saying this is absolutely the case, for everyone freaking out about Florida. Just that it's a possibility.)

[randomusername]

Even then, I do find it hard to believe that they'll be able to match that total turnout compared to 2016.

[charcuterie]

Could the low turnout in Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia be viewed as a lack of enthusiasm for Trump? They were some of Trump's biggest margins in 2016.

Don't some of these states discourage mail voting/EV and some of them also don't allow COVID as an excuse to vote absentee, right?

[Inmate Trump]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, Ralston is an independent journalist in a small backwater state that no one cares about. Let him enjoy the two weeks every two years when the rest of the world pays attention to him.

[Holmes]

AL and MS have no in person early voting and have pretty strict absentee rules (though AL seems stricter). Only if you’ll be absent on Election Day, if you’re sick, disabled, a senior, basically.

[republican1993]

let's go trump!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

The turnout in the state does not look low by any measurement...

[Inmate Trump]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

The turnout in the state does not look low by any measurement...

Eek, I think I was looking at the wrong figure. In any case, is there any cause for concern there?

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

The turnout in the state does not look low by any measurement...

Eek, I think I was looking at the wrong figure. In any case, is there any cause for concern there?

Overall it's looking solid, its going to be a counting nightmare tho

[compucomp]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

The turnout in the state does not look low by any measurement...

Eek, I think I was looking at the wrong figure. In any case, is there any cause for concern there?

Overall it's looking solid, its going to be a counting nightmare tho

I'd love to see the ratio of returned Dem/NPA absentee ballots at 90% or higher before election day (currently Dem 79%, NPA 67%). Also someone should check the post offices in Philadelphia and its suburbs to see if there are shenanigans going on there.

[OneJ]

AL and MS have no in person early voting and have pretty strict absentee rules (though AL seems stricter). Only if you’ll be absent on Election Day, if you’re sick, disabled, a senior, basically.

This plus here in MS you could give reasons such as work and being away from home on E-Day. I was thinking about doing that but I've ultimately decided to wait until election day.

[South Dakota Democrat]

let's go trump!

Why do you support a white supremacist?

[Non Swing Voter]

I hope that the Republicans realize that this is a fight for their survival and that 100% of them will vote.

I too hope that everyone else also realizes that this election IS a fight for the survival of the Republican Party and votes Democrat.  The Republican Party doesn't deserve to exist in its current form.

[Asta]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

[Lief 🗽]

let's go trump!

Agreed, let's all hope he "goes" out of the White House and into prison in January.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1322555128067563529

Can't even imagine what turnout will end up as in Dallas County. It couldn't possibly end up nearly a million...could it?

[swf541]

Considering this is PA's first year with mail in voting like this and the attacks on the USPS I am not particularly alarmed about the PA number

[charcuterie]

Is it possible that there are a bunch of outstanding PA mail votes because people have gotten cold feet about sending them in amid all the legal battles over them? Or are 25% really going to come in by the 6th?

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated. Around 39 k people voted early  yesterday and with that number of early  voters  in IA is 924533 (59.03 % of 2016 total turnout)3
D 428833 (62.15% of IA Registered D)
R 305178 (43.41% of IA Registered R)

1012922 people have requested for early voting in IA so far( 64.68% of 2016 total turnout).

[Ferguson97]

It would be truly fantastic if we won Texas and didn't even have to worry about Pennsylvania or Florida

[mijan]

Is it possible that there are a bunch of outstanding PA mail votes because people have gotten cold feet about sending them in amid all the legal battles over them? Or are 25% really going to come in by the 6th?

Return rate is already  75% in yesterday . In four days hopefully another 20% ballot will return. I think by election  day more than 95% of absentees  will return .

[mijan]

It would be truly fantastic if we won Florid and didn't even have to worry about Pennsylvania or Florida

Winning NC and GA will also help us.

[forza nocta]

Yea, a Biden win in either NC or GA would shut out the need for both Florida and Pennsylvania