2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[philly09]

I've seen enough, Biden wins Nevada.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322402317304356869

[Stuart98]

So 90% of early voting in Nevada occurred in Clark and Washoe.  Is that normally the case?  I wouldn't think that's good for the GOP considering they'll probably lose both counties.

Those two counties accounted for 87% of the total vote in 2016, so them taking 90% of the early vote sounds about right.

[philly09]

Just shy of 88 Million votes. Might hit 100 Million by Tuesday.

[Adam Griffin]

How much of that is because Brothers & Sisters don't trust the USPS this close to the election and would rather vote in person versus absentee?

Who does Team Biden have running the "Ground War" in Georgia?

I haven't really followed all of his hiring decisions for running the campaign in key States, but pretty sure he's hired talent in GA, just like in pretty much every other of the large number of 2020 "Swing States".

Former President Adam Griffin (Sorry but I wanted to reference your previous Atlas title as a term of respect, plus your expertise on GA Elections), but suspect you got a good handle on all this (Although actually we got a pretty solid DEM and IND crew from GA who also provide high quality and solid perspective, analysis, and updates, so not to disrespect any of the others, but you are one of my first "Go-To GA experts)

First, I would note that GA is large - geographically, population-wise and county-wise. There will be ~50k election workers (>10k working the ED precincts directly) handling ED processes across the state - which is what's most concerning. Given the historical median age of a precinct worker, the bulk of individuals working will either be first-timers or people who have been working the polls since Al Gore was on the ballot (getting paid ~$10/hr to do so). It would shock people to know how many 80-90 year-old women are in charge of the elections process in GA. To expect them to be well-trained is a fantasy, to put it mildly (based on my first-hand experience of dealing with these types - you wouldn't believe how ignorant the median poll worker is).

While somebody who received a mail ballot need only request a void of such on Election Day at the precinct, there will undoubtedly be thousands (if not tens of thousands) of people who'll be turned away because their local poll workers don't understand this concept and give them inaccurate information/think they have to physically present their mail ballots to be voided. Again: the average poll worker in GA has less understanding of election law than my 21 year-old self.

Right now, I can see one-third of outstanding ballots being returned by mail/via dropboxes prior to or on November 6th (the state deadline via the courts, which happens to coincide with the validation of provisional ballots). That leaves around 400k ballots in the hands of a group that is disproportionately young, minority and Democratic that could be disenfranchised (disproportionately in rural and/or non-massively D areas; I don't expect there to be many issues with this in places like Fulton or Dekalb). Nevertheless, this could be a deciding factor if any races are won/lost or fall into runoff/won territory by <15k votes statewide.

I've always been bearish on the whole "voter suppression" dynamic in GA. Lots of claims are made, but ultimately, GA in 2020 has one of the laxest voting systems in the country (15+ days of in-person EV, de-facto AVR, no excuse in-person/by mail early voting, online voter registration), but this is the election where it could actually matter. Abrams didn't lose 100k+ votes in 2018 due to "voter suppression" (the amount it would have taken for her to win + avoid a runoff): these dynamics could matter in 2020, however.

[Hammy]

Just shy of 88 Million votes. Might hit 100 Million by Tuesday.

Does early voting go through the weekend?

[Horus]

Just shy of 88 Million votes. Might hit 100 Million by Tuesday.

Does early voting go through the weekend?

Depends on the state. Not here in GA

[Adam Griffin]

Just shy of 88 Million votes. Might hit 100 Million by Tuesday.

Does early voting go through the weekend?

In some states/counties, yes. In most, no. However, given that we've been gaining >5m votes per day over the past few days in conjunction with EV states/counties this weekend + mail ballots over the next 3 days (plus ElectProject hasn't updated multiple state counts for Friday, including GA & TX it appears), reaching more than 95m by Election Day isn't at all unreasonable.

[NOVA Green]

How much of that is because Brothers & Sisters don't trust the USPS this close to the election and would rather vote in person versus absentee?

Who does Team Biden have running the "Ground War" in Georgia?

I haven't really followed all of his hiring decisions for running the campaign in key States, but pretty sure he's hired talent in GA, just like in pretty much every other of the large number of 2020 "Swing States".

Former President Adam Griffin (Sorry but I wanted to reference your previous Atlas title as a term of respect, plus your expertise on GA Elections), but suspect you got a good handle on all this (Although actually we got a pretty solid DEM and IND crew from GA who also provide high quality and solid perspective, analysis, and updates, so not to disrespect any of the others, but you are one of my first "Go-To GA experts)

First, I would note that GA is large - geographically, population-wise and county-wise. There will be ~50k election workers (>10k working the ED precincts directly) handling ED processes across the state - which is what's most concerning. Given the historical median age of a precinct worker, the bulk of individuals working will either be first-timers or people who have been working the polls since Al Gore was on the ballot (getting paid ~$10/hr to do so). It would shock people to know how many 80-90 year-old women are in charge of the elections process in GA. To expect them to be well-trained is a fantasy, to put it mildly (based on my first-hand experience of dealing with these types - you wouldn't believe how ignorant the median poll worker is).

While somebody who received a mail ballot need only request a void of such on Election Day at the precinct, there will undoubtedly be thousands (if not tens of thousands) of people who'll be turned away because their local poll workers don't understand this concept and give them inaccurate information/think they have to physically present their mail ballots to be voided. Again: the average poll worker in GA has less understanding of election law than my 21 year-old self.

Right now, I can see one-third of outstanding ballots being returned by mail/via dropboxes prior to or on November 6th (the state deadline via the courts, which happens to coincide with the validation of provisional ballots). That leaves around 400k ballots in the hands of a group that is disproportionately young, minority and Democratic that could be disenfranchised (disproportionately in rural and/or non-massively D areas; I don't expect there to be many issues with this in places like Fulton or Dekalb). Nevertheless, this could be a deciding factor if any races are won/lost or fall into runoff/won territory by <15k votes statewide.

I've always been bearish on the whole "voter suppression" dynamic in GA. Lots of claims are made, but ultimately, GA in 2020 has one of the laxest voting systems in the country (15+ days of in-person EV, de-facto AVR, no excuse in-person/by mail early voting, online voter registration), but this is the election where it could actually matter. Abrams didn't lose 100k+ votes in 2018 due to "voter suppression" (the amount it would have taken for her to win + avoid a runoff): these dynamics could matter in 2020, however.

Thx for the detailed update!

Damn thought you were closer to a Gen-Exer like myself after almost a decade of Solid Posts and Political analysis from GA.   

So, opinions on Team Biden Ground War and Air War in GA?

[Adam Griffin]

How much of that is because Brothers & Sisters don't trust the USPS this close to the election and would rather vote in person versus absentee?

Who does Team Biden have running the "Ground War" in Georgia?

I haven't really followed all of his hiring decisions for running the campaign in key States, but pretty sure he's hired talent in GA, just like in pretty much every other of the large number of 2020 "Swing States".

Former President Adam Griffin (Sorry but I wanted to reference your previous Atlas title as a term of respect, plus your expertise on GA Elections), but suspect you got a good handle on all this (Although actually we got a pretty solid DEM and IND crew from GA who also provide high quality and solid perspective, analysis, and updates, so not to disrespect any of the others, but you are one of my first "Go-To GA experts)

First, I would note that GA is large - geographically, population-wise and county-wise. There will be ~50k election workers (>10k working the ED precincts directly) handling ED processes across the state - which is what's most concerning. Given the historical median age of a precinct worker, the bulk of individuals working will either be first-timers or people who have been working the polls since Al Gore was on the ballot (getting paid ~$10/hr to do so). It would shock people to know how many 80-90 year-old women are in charge of the elections process in GA. To expect them to be well-trained is a fantasy, to put it mildly (based on my first-hand experience of dealing with these types - you wouldn't believe how ignorant the median poll worker is).

While somebody who received a mail ballot need only request a void of such on Election Day at the precinct, there will undoubtedly be thousands (if not tens of thousands) of people who'll be turned away because their local poll workers don't understand this concept and give them inaccurate information/think they have to physically present their mail ballots to be voided. Again: the average poll worker in GA has less understanding of election law than my 21 year-old self.

Right now, I can see one-third of outstanding ballots being returned by mail/via dropboxes prior to or on November 6th (the state deadline via the courts, which happens to coincide with the validation of provisional ballots). That leaves around 400k ballots in the hands of a group that is disproportionately young, minority and Democratic that could be disenfranchised (disproportionately in rural and/or non-massively D areas; I don't expect there to be many issues with this in places like Fulton or Dekalb). Nevertheless, this could be a deciding factor if any races are won/lost or fall into runoff/won territory by <15k votes statewide.

I've always been bearish on the whole "voter suppression" dynamic in GA. Lots of claims are made, but ultimately, GA in 2020 has one of the laxest voting systems in the country (15+ days of in-person EV, de-facto AVR, no excuse in-person/by mail early voting, online voter registration), but this is the election where it could actually matter. Abrams didn't lose 100k+ votes in 2018 due to "voter suppression" (the amount it would have taken for her to win + avoid a runoff): these dynamics could matter in 2020, however.

Thx for the detailed update!

Damn thought you were closer to a Gen-Exer like myself after almost a decade of Solid Posts and Political analysis from GA.   

So, opinions on Team Biden Ground War and Air War in GA?

Oh, my reference there about age and poll worker knowledge might have been misconstrued/ confusing: I'm 32.

I'll pipe up tomorrow about presidential involvement in GA.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Democrats almost win in person voting today in Clark!

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322402317304356869?s=21

To what does the "firewall in the South" refer?

[Panda Express]

Democrats almost win in person voting today in Clark!

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322402317304356869?s=21

To what does the "firewall in the South" refer?

Vegas, baby

[ExSky]

Ralstons really out here role playing like Nevada was a swing state this cycle. Took us a week for him to get to what everyone already knew. But we’re supposed to deify him why?

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Rep & Dems now neck and neck on turnout, both blowing past Total '16 EV turnout.

Dems 61.8%  (+2.8 )
Reps  61.1%  (+3.7)
NPAs  46.5%  (+3.3)

Commentary:  2020 is not 2016. Today's Dem lead of 116,051 is more than the final EV lead in 2016 of 96,450.....with 1.7 Million more votes cast (deeply cannibalizing election day)





Miami-Dade joins all other counties in achieving 2016 EV Turnout with two days left.  
Margin heavy Broward lunges forward coming closer to almost 2/3 of registered Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Besides Florida is there any problem with low black and/or Latino turnout elsewhere?

The article talks about how they aren't matching white turnout levels in Philadelphia and Arizona, but was anyone fully expecting that? It is a pretty known fact that voters of color don't trust absentee balloting and as we can see for good reason.

Sorry to go back to this but also, many minority voters wait until election day to vote as well. This all seems like a real nothingburger.

[wbrocks67]

Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

LMAO, it's almost as if his entire fake narrative was predicated on the fact that the mail is slow some days! Who couldve guessed!

[wbrocks67]

Vote-By-Mail
Democratic: 2,033,800  (+641,787)
Republican: 1,392,013
NPA/Other: 1,023,952
Total: 4,449,765

In-Person EV
Republican: 1,746,360  (+527,513)
Democratic: 1,218,847
NPA/Other: 808,964
Total: 3,774,171

Turnout at 57% statewide -->

Given that today is the last day for EV for many R-leaning counties, but D counties have 2 days left, it looks like Ds will keep their overall edge in the total votes, which seems... against the constant narrative this entire time.

[Buzz]

Will be interesting to see how Sunday voting goes in FL this year.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,536,035 (66.8%)
Reps 520,199 (22.6%)
Other 243,159 (10.6%)
= 2.3M

Dems blow past +1M mark over Reps, with now over 1.016mil more votes returned.

Dem return rate is 78.9%, Reps only 66.1%.

[wbrocks67]

Florida now at 87% of 2016 turnout. It's clear there has been major Election Day cannibalization by both sides. Dems still lead by 1.4% and 116K votes.

FLORIDA
Dems 3,276,786 (39.5%)
Reps 3,160,735 (38.1%)
Other 1,856,594 (22.4%)
= 8,294,115

[n1240]

NC 10/28, day 15 early in-person vote:

Dem 69303 (29.4%)
Rep 86121 (36.6%)
Una 80076 (34.0%)
Total 235500

compared to day 15 in 2016

Dem 117430 (37.7%)
Rep 103153 (33.1%)
Una 90631 (29.1%)
Total 311214

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1218414 (35.6%)
Rep 1194294 (34.9%)
Una 1006884 (29.4%)
Total 3419592

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1633774 (37.8%)
Rep 1378537 (31.9%)
Una 1310505 (30.3%)
Total 4322816

Bit of an uptick in early in-person vote raw total, likely due to being the last in-person early weekday, Rep margin lead is slightly smaller than yesterday, but their gain in raw ballot lead is roughly the same as yesterday. The trend of unaffiliated voters increasing also continues, the overall share of unaffiliated voters is considerably larger than 2016 in early voting (26.3% vs 30.3%). Planning on posting a bit of an analysis on unaffiliated voters in a bit. Another thing that I haven't been tracking that closely but probably should've is the % of non 2016 voters. I'm not sure how to determine this myself with the available data but from ElectProject the share has gone from 26.8% to 27.6% today. That means roughly 40% of the voters who voted yesterday did not vote in 2016.

[SLA8]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1322535922257285120

[Non Swing Voter]

Vote-By-Mail
Democratic: 2,033,800  (+641,787)
Republican: 1,392,013
NPA/Other: 1,023,952
Total: 4,449,765

In-Person EV
Republican: 1,746,360  (+527,513)
Democratic: 1,218,847
NPA/Other: 808,964
Total: 3,774,171

Turnout at 57% statewide -->

Given that today is the last day for EV for many R-leaning counties, but D counties have 2 days left, it looks like Ds will keep their overall edge in the total votes, which seems... against the constant narrative this entire time.

Yes.  Especially because it looks like the GOP put a lot of effort in turning out GOP voters in those big D counties so Dems have a lot more room for growth there.  This weekend might be a true test of the two ground games.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Rep & Dems now neck and neck on turnout, both blowing past Total '16 EV turnout.

Dems 61.8%  (+2.8 )
Reps  61.1%  (+3.7)
NPAs  46.5%  (+3.3)

Commentary:  2020 is not 2016. Today's Dem lead of 116,051 is more than the final EV lead in 2016 of 96,450.....with 1.7 Million more votes cast (deeply cannibalizing election day)





Miami-Dade joins all other counties in achieving 2016 EV Turnout with two days left.  
Margin heavy Broward lunges forward coming closer to almost 2/3 of registered Dems.

Totally true.  Republicans expecting a huge Election Day turnout to cut into the Democratic lead are completely forgetting that there are way less people left to vote.

[Ljube]

I hope that the Republicans realize that this is a fight for their survival and that 100% of them will vote.

[randomusername]

Could the low turnout in Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia be viewed as a lack of enthusiasm for Trump? They were some of Trump's biggest margins in 2016.