2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You may be right. These ballots will be set aside and then, if they can influence the result, and if Trump is in the lead, will be thrown out.

Right, wouldn't be surprised if Alito and other garbage Judges want to know what the results of the late ballots are before deciding if they count or not.  They might even expand the deadline if they think it would help Trump.  (I'm assuming they are setting them aside by date received)

[compucomp]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You may be right. These ballots will be set aside and then, if they can influence the result, and if Trump is in the lead, will be thrown out.

Right, wouldn't be surprised if Alito and other garbage Judges want to know what the results of the late ballots are before deciding if they count or not.  They might even expand the deadline if they think it would help Trump.  (I'm assuming they are setting them aside by date received)

There were 5 justices that ruled that any ballot received in PA until Nov. 6 postmarked by Nov. 3 should count. Unless you think Kavanaugh will change his mind, this seems safe to me. The statement about leaving the case open was signed by Alito, Gorsuch, and Thomas.

[DaleCooper]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

I don't have a take on the SCOTUS situation, but the Republican return rate in pretty much all of the swing states is so much lower than Democrats that it doesn't seem clear who would be hurt most by the targeting of late ballots.

[jeron]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

This article is such a hot mess and so wrong I dont even know where to start.

Exactly. They assume the polls may be wrong, but they rely on a poll (!) which says that 62% of Dems will vote early and 72% of Reps vote on Election Day. Even if those figures are correct, it doesn’t mean they are correct in every state. There are 2.1 million republicans in NC, 1.2 million republicans already voted. There’s no 72% left.
In Iowa, which they took as an example, there are 703,000 republicans. Over 35% (262,000)already voted. Again, there’s no 72% left.
It seems many republicans decided to vote early after all and maybe the poll which concluded that 72% would vote on Election Day was simply wrong.

[wbrocks67]

it's an opinion piece first of all

The data it's using to back it up isn't being used in the right context. It's acting as if the nationwide polling on when Dems and Reps are voting is the same for every individual state, which it's not.

[wbrocks67]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You're probably right. Dems are still severely lagging among ballot returns and at this rate, will likely have a higher % outstanding after election day than Ds.

[lfromnj]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

No the reason SCOTUS is doing it differently in PA is because its a State court that ruled in a sh**tty manner rather than a lower level federal court as in Wisconsin.


In PA the state supreme court court is very D, while in WI its 3 R hacks, 1 non hack R, 3 Hack Ds. Hagedorn would not make up random law so Ds didnt sue in state court for Wisconsin.  In WI due to it having 2 D senators until 2010 and the method of blue slips its district courts are quite liberal leaning.  PA is the opposite as until 2006 its had 2 GOP senators. Scotus is less likely to overturn state law or a state supreme court ruling while there is 0 respect involved for a low level federal judge making a sh**tty ruling.


I like how atlas assumes hackery on all these SCOTUS cases when the R majority blocked an independent redistricting commission on Oregon in a similar case. An Emergency does not give federal judges the right to unilaterally change state law .

[wbrocks67]

Not surprised Biden is headed to Tampa and Broward today since those two spots really seem to be surging in voting right now for Dems.

[Gass3268]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1321664346578161665?s=21

[Bootes Void]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1321664346578161665?s=21

If Wasserman or a majority of media pundits have a strong opinion on something that's where you goofed up.

[cwh2018]

What is the story with Texas yesterday.  No vote totals from Harris,Dallas,Bexar,Travis and some smaller counties.  Must be an error with Montgomery as well as it says 40,448 voted yesterday when counties of a comparative size had 4,000? Must be clerical error and should be 4,448.  By my estimate roughly 125,000 votes not added yet,(this includes the subtraction of 36,000 from Montgomery).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

it's an opinion piece first of all

The guy who wrote it owns a nonprofit that pushes bs conspiracy theories about ActBlue on their website.

And this hot garbage is in the final paragraph:

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning Election Day by millions of votes.

[SLA8]

yeah, my saying it was an opinion piece was to highlight that it should be taken with a grain of salt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting today has been canceled or delayed in at least 16 Georgia counties due to widespread power outages from Tropical Storm Zeta.

https://www.ajc.com/news/power-outages-delay-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/G5GD22MWL5G6DMLEKJZC3BYCW4/

[wbrocks67]

Early voting today has been canceled or delayed in at least 16 Georgia counties due to widespread power outages from Tropical Storm Zeta.

https://www.ajc.com/news/power-outages-delay-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/G5GD22MWL5G6DMLEKJZC3BYCW4/

These types of things are why it's always good to have votes banked already. You never know what's going to happen. Trump leaving his voters to election day strategy never made any strategic sense.

[TopShelfGoal]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You may be right. These ballots will be set aside and then, if they can influence the result, and if Trump is in the lead, will be thrown out.

Right, wouldn't be surprised if Alito and other garbage Judges want to know what the results of the late ballots are before deciding if they count or not.  They might even expand the deadline if they think it would help Trump.  (I'm assuming they are setting them aside by date received)

Good move by the PA attorney general to order the poll workers to not mix late arriving ballots with the on time ballots (eventhough the directive is getting heat on twitter from the left). A vast overwhelming majority of ballots are gonna arrive on time. This protects the Ds from SCOTUS shenanigans if these ballots are isolated. If you couldn't tell which ballots were early and which late I could see all mail ballots being called into question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that the question of whether a group of late ballots might be determinative means they have the *potential* to affect the outcome.  If there are 10,000 such ballots and the margin without them is less than that, the ballots could potentially change the outcome, and should be counted.  If the margin is larger, then those ballots can't affect the outcome, so counting them may be moot.

[Gass3268]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

[Florida Man for Crime]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems proceed beyond 2016 EV Turnout but Republicans catching up.   Just need to keep at same level as Reps in the end.  NPAs will hit their 2016 EV % today

Dems  56.4% (+2.8 )
Reps   53.9%  (+3.7)
NPAs   40.2%  (+3.0)

To me things look on course for a narrow Biden win in Florida. Nevertheless, it does look like the Rs may close/tie the overall Dem advantage by the end of the early vote period. And then there is a possibility that they may pull into an overall advantage with the election day vote.

However, I think the fact that ballots were sent out later in Miami Dade will mitigate somewhat against how good the election day vote will end up being for the GOP. One side effect of that is there will probably be more election day votes left over as some more people who would have sent in their ballots earlier will decide to vote on election day, making the election day vote more Dem. I think the #1 concern has to be late returned ballots getting rejected in Miami-Dade due to the Republican opposition to democracy (deliberately sending out ballots late).

However, I think even with those things, the available data is pointing to a narrow Biden win due to independents/undecideds breaking Dem enough to offset the effects of these immoral and anti-democratic shenanigans. I am thinking though, that GA and perhaps NC may vote to the left of FL because of this.

In 2021, the first order of business for a new Dem trifecta, if there is one, absolutely has to be all manner of procedural reforms, including electoral reform, judicial reform, Senate rules reform, and so on. Policy reform cannot occur without first taking care of procedural reform.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

[Non Swing Voter]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

[ExSky]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

[Florida Man for Crime]

Early voting today has been canceled or delayed in at least 16 Georgia counties due to widespread power outages from Tropical Storm Zeta.

https://www.ajc.com/news/power-outages-delay-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/G5GD22MWL5G6DMLEKJZC3BYCW4/

The article doesn't have a list of the 16 counties. It mentions a few off hand, but no comprehensive list that I can see. Do we know which ones they are and how badly effected each county is?

[ExSky]

Very important piece of information from Florida (changes since September):

In person on Election Day: 17% (-16)
In person at an early voting location: 44% (+19)
By mail ballot: 37% (+/-)

but the very smart politics knowers of Atlas told me that millions of GOP voters would swarm the polls on election day, dwarfing Dem turnout

It's clear that Republicans are the ones cannibalizing Election Day votes now.  They can't depend on a massive red wave on Election Day.  I think Biden has the advantage in Florida.

Dem turnout now = 57%!

To most rational people this was obvious. But it was fun for some to pretend it wasn’t the case for a few days as a coping mechanism.

[Hnv1]

Looks like the days of Florida beating Texas in total vote count are over

Aren't there 7 million more people in Texas? jeez what's the turnout in elections there? 40%?