Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

If they PP loses the majority by, say, one seat, Feijoó is out right? No way they can reach a deal with the other parties I assume?

Unless Vox or Cs somehow has said remaining seat (which is very unlikely) yeah, Feijoo is out. For him it is either 38 seats or bust.

In any other case, PSOE, BNG and UP will rule together.

[Former President tack50]

Well, looks like the 2 elections will be snoozefests unfortunately (there is a small chance of an upset in Galicia but not much)

Anyways, it is worth noting that Catalonia will probably have an election at some point this year so I will be looking forward to that one more than these 2

[Former President tack50]

Ok so today there were incidents at a Vox rally in Sestao (Basque Country), which is basically a suburb of Bilbao located on the "márgen izquierda" (the most Spanish unionist area of Viscay and the Bilbao metropolitan area, although it is also very left wing)

The police had to intervene to stop protestors from causing violence and what not, with said protestors throwing food, eggs and even stones to the Vox people. Vox MP Rocío de Meer was injured.

Vox is blaming PNV for allowing the protest to take place and criticizing the police response for not ensuring their safety.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4305916/0/cargas-policiales-antifascistas-boicotear-mitin-abascal-sestao/


In other news, the Spanish government is starting to prepare a "Telecommuting bill" as part of the response to the coronavirus, but also to generally improve telecommuting and put in placer a bill to regulate how it can be done. The bill has been criticized by Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE), basically the main voice of business inn the country.

The main points of the bill seem to be:

> Telecommuting must be voluntary and not forced by the company.
> The company must pay for all the necessary equipment to telecommute, and the employee must not pay for any of the necessary things to be able to telecommute. This is the point where the Government and business organizations are clashing the most by far; and the most controversial point of the bill
> People telecommuting shall have the right to flexibility in their working hours
> While corporations can put in placer some controls, these controls must not be intrusive or dipsproportionate and attack the employee's right to intimacy. However the controls are put in place by the employer.
> The employee has a right to be completely disconnected outside their working hours and this right must be guaranteed by their employer

Telecommuting is intended to be voluntary, but prioritary for people with small children and victims of terrorism or gender violence

Tbh I hate telecommuting but a bill like this is a great idea and a bill I fully support.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4305239/0/claves-ley-teletrabajo-prepara-gobierno-sanchez-podemos-trabajo/

[Former President tack50]

Ok so today there were incidents at a Vox rally in Sestao (Basque Country), which is basically a suburb of Bilbao located on the "márgen izquierda" (the most Spanish unionist area of Viscay and the Bilbao metropolitan area, although it is also very left wing)

Sestao is possibly more left-wing than "unionist", even though the support for nationalist parties is lower than average due to the population with origins in other Spanish regions. The Left Side (Margen Izquierda) of the River Nervión is a traditional PSOE stronghold associated to the once thriving iron mining and steel industry. On the contrary, the Right Side (Margen Derecha) is more upper class and municipalities like Getxo had traditionally a strong PP vote. Aside from Getxo, the main PP strongholds are located in Álava and inner city districts like Abando in Bilbao.

Yeah, the Abando neighbourhood might be arguably the most PP place in all of the Basque Country outside Álava. Iirc despite PP's bad result in 2016, they managed to get in 2nd there (a distant 2nd after PNV but still 2nd)



As for the PNC in Catalonia, they are going nowhere imo. If Unió in 2015 could not make it, in an era of Catalan politics that was less polarized than it is now, I doubt PNC makes it. I think they get like 1 or 1.5% of the vote.

[Former President tack50]

As I always try to do, here are the campaign posters and slogans from all main candidates. I don't know how widespread they are (because Coronavirus) but there are still certainly some out there. Though this time it was a lot harder for me to find them:

Using spoiler tags for the images for the first time ever as well, in order not to obstruct the page much (plus I think the PP one breaks the forum)

Galicia

PP: Galicia, Galicia, Galicia

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PSOE: The time for a change / Make Galicia

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BNG: A New Galicia

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Galicia in Common (UP+allies): The time is now / Building the future

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Vox: Galicia is Green

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Cs: A lot to win

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Analysing the posters here are some things:

> Feijoo, as is traditional for him, tries to hide the PP logo and make it as small as realistically possible. He already has done this in his previous elections
> PSOE meanwhile seems to be trying to nationalize the campaign, using marketing materials very similar to those used by Sánchez in 2019
>Vox's slogan is downright bizarre. It almost looks like they are an ecologist party
> Cs is even weirder. For a party that has a reputation for being pro-centralism and what not, it is very weird to see them use the Galician flag as a background, as well as to make their marketing materials in Galician and not Spanish (like Vox did). I suppose this ties nicely into their "turn to the centre" though

[Former President tack50]

And here are the ones for the other election campaign:

Basque Country

PNV: Euskadi Stand Up / We will come out

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Bildu: Ready to do

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UP: We can govern

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PSE-EE: Solucions

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PP+Cs: A plan for the future

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Vox: Speak for Yourself

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[Former President tack50]

Feijóo is clearly the best campaigner. He is going to win because he's Galicia. Vox is not Equo, but polls suggest it will perform nearly as bad as the true greens. Didn't you find a poster of Carlos Iturgaiz?

Oh yeah I did but I forgot to post it lol

Here it is

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbZBmRbXgAEFlV1?format=jpg&name=large

Slogan: A plan for the future

Here is also the Vox poster for the Basque Country

https://static3.diariovasco.com/www/multimedia/202006/19/media/cortadas/56186677--624x426.jpg

Slogan: Speak for yourself

[Former President tack50]

Wow. While still rather unlikely, at this point it is not inconcievable that BNG actually beats PSOE for 2nd in Galicia. That would certainly be a huge upset and a big comeback for a party that many people considered dead back in 2016 (with almost all their voters moving to UP)

[Former President tack50]

Surprising to see turnout up in Galicia. I suppose we might be in for a surprise there.

[Former President tack50]

It seems Feijoo will probably (but not 100% sure) keep his majority.

The Basque Country went as expected really

The big surprise of tonight will be that BNG beats PSOE for 2nd.

[Former President tack50]

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

Yes this is correct. In the Basque Country the 2 nationalist parties have a 2/3 supermajority (not like it matters since the Basque regional statute can be reformed by a standard majority) and they are getting their best result ever

And of course, BNG is beating PSOE in Galicia

[Former President tack50]

With 71% of the vote counted, it starts to become stronger the possibility that GeC will not win a single seat.

Same question.  What is the threshold for winning seats?   I think there are 4 provinces so I would think GeC would cross the threshold somewhere.

5%. Currently (77% in), they're at 4.2% in A Coruña, and 4.4% in Pontevedra.

Yes, it's 5% in any of the provinces (not in the region as a whole)

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

Yes. The big winners are Feijóo (PP in Galicia ismore 'regionalist' than national PP), the PNV and Urkullu (the PNV is currently a 'technocratic' catch-all-party that attracts nationalist and non-nationalist voters) and of course the leftwing nationalists/searatists BNG and EH Bildu.

The big losers are Podemos (following the catastrophic regional elections in May 2019), PSOE (surpassed in Galicia  ad stagnant in BC), the Basque PP (Inés Arrimadas made a good deal, as Cs will get 2 of the 6 coalition seats), Vox (winning a seat in Álava has a symbolic importance,. though) and Cs (not their elections)

I would argue Vox is actually a winner tonight. Not a big one but they got the only prize they had a chance to get.

The big loser is Podemos of course.

[Former President tack50]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

[Former President tack50]

Final results from Galicia. The PP failed to win the 42nd seat by 45 votes in Pontevedra.

48.0% PP, 41 seats
23.8% BNG, 19
19.4% PSOE, 15
   3.9% GeC, 0
   2.0% Vox, 0
   0.8% C's, 0
   0.5% PACMA, 0
   0.2% Mareas, 0
   0.5% Other parties, 0
  0.9% Blank ballots

58.9% Turnout

Only three parties winning seats much be pretty unusual in Spanish elections these days?

It can still happen but yeah it is the exception and not the norm at all.

In 2019 for example it only happened in Castille-La Mancha (which elected 19 PSOE, 14 PP and 2 Cs and nothing else), which simultaneously:

A) Is very unfriendly to the "new parties" and a stronghold of the old 2 party system
B) Has no notable regional parties
C) Has an extremely hostile electoral system towards third parties, with a de facto threshold of like 9% (PR by province, but no province elects more than 9 seats)

Really this was a big surprise and something that can't really happen outside Castille-La Mancha and maybe Extremadura (an even stronger stronghold of the old 2 party system, but with a much friendlier electoral system for third parties). Maybe in La Rioja as well.

In both cases it would depend on whether the UP collapse repeats itself in these regions without nationalist parties or not tbh. But they are not up until 2023 so the question is a bit irrelevant now I suppose

[Former President tack50]

I'm honestly shocked that Podemos was shut out of the Galician Parliament. It's as if half their voters fled straight to the BNG and pollsters didn't notice.

More like all their voters to be precise

[Former President tack50]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

Ah yes, forgot about that. Yes, that could change the seat. In 2008, in the general election, didn't PP lose a seat after the votes from abroad were counted? I recall something like that.

No idea about 2008, but in 2019 after the foreign votes were counted PP narrowly won 1 seat in the Basque Country from Bildu iirc. This meant that the Spanish right got at least 1 Basque MP even if very narrowly

[Former President tack50]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

[Former President tack50]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

Ir's interesting, indeed. Even though a coalition between EH Bildu and PSOE with Elkarrekin Podemos was not going to happen, the possibility of an alterbative and advance of the Basque nationalist left haven't go unnoticed for the PNV.

What happened with that seat in Pomtevedra disputed between PSOE and PP?

I think the Pontevedra seat ended up with no changes if I am not mistaken

[Former President tack50]

The year is 2020 AD. The Basque Country is entirely occupied by the Nationalists and Socialists. Well, not entirely... One small village of indomitable PP supporters still holds out against the invaders. And life is not easy for the Spanish legionaries who garrison the fortified camps of Navaridas

[Former President tack50]

Is there a reason why late counted votes tend to lean right?

ZAPATERO

Lol what?

Anyways there is no particular reason why the Spaniards abroad vote (which is what these late votes are really) tends to lean right to my knowledge.

Ironically common wisdom would expect it to actually lean left (young people leaving Spain and what not) but I suppose turnout among these kinds of people is abysmal.

[Former President tack50]

Podemos came first among Spaniards abroad (voto CERA) in the 2015 general elections and quite possibly UP did the same in 2016. Since then turnout has dropped to abysmal levels due to the "requested vote" system (voto rogado). However Galicia is different and the PP is traditionally hegemonic among the Galician communities abroad, particularly in Latin America (to a lesser extent, CC dominates the vote of the Canatians abroad in countries like Venezuela). The PP "stole" a seat to the BNG thanks after the CERA vote was counted in another election years ago, during the previous nationalist heyday under Xose Manuel Beiras. The current BNG leader Ana Ponton led her party to an extraordinary performance this year and believes she will be the next premier by 2024

This is an incredibly great explanation. However it still does not explain PP gaining seats from Bildu in the Basque Country?

I am less confident on Ponton becoming premier in 2024 though. If the left wins she probably will indeed become premier (though 4 years is an incredibly long time; 4 years ago everyone thought PSOE would go the way of PASOK for instance ); but the thing is that I think Feijoo will just rule for a very, very long time. He seems to me like the kind of regional premier that just sticks on for incredibly long no matter what; much like Jordi Pujol or his PP predecessor Manuel Fraga (though Fraga was eventually defeated in 2005).

[Former President tack50]

Vox has announced today that they will present a no confidence vote on the Sánchez government in September because reasons.

Needless to say, it will not go anywhere and tbh it further devalues the point of no confidence votes (which are supposed to be solemn occasions). Even PP has said they will not support it.

Sánchez may not have a majority, but his government is safe from a no confidence vote as such a vote requires the support from ERC, Bildu or CUP (and that assumes that Vox could somehow get the support of JxCat which is obviously not going to happen)

Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)

[Former President tack50]

Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)

.
Disagree. A motion of no confidence may not succeed, but that doesn't imply the motion fails miserably. Felipe Gonzalez presented a motion of no confidence in against Adolfo Suarez which was unsuccessful, but it served its purpose presenting Gonzakez as an alternative. Hernandez Mancha failed miserably in 1987 because he lacked the skills to confront Felipe Gonzalez in parliament. The 2017 motion was not that kind of failure and I remember well a devastating intervention by the UP spokeswoman Irene Montero on the PP corruption. The motion was unsuccessful because it lacked enough parliamentary support, but it was a draw in what regards the dialectical battle between Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy

(Emeritus king Juan Carlos might leave La Zarzuela)

At that moment Pablo iglesias made a fool of himself, lost support, and never got it back.

Yeah I agree with that. Not all the support Podemos lost comes from that, but it (alonside Sanchez winning the PSOE primaries) was "the beginning of the end" for UP, where it started the gradual decline it has been for a while now

What I remember most from the 2017 no confidence debate was the brutal intervention from Ana Oramas against Iglesias. I am not the biggest fan of CC (even if I've warmed up to them a bit now that they were finally ousted regionally), but that intervention was absolutely brutal

I remember a lot of people being surprised that a party with a whopping 1 MP and 0.3% of the vote had the best intervention lol

I will also note that the 1980 no confidence vote was done in much different circumstances. At the time there was already quite a bit of infighting in UCD and Suarez was becoming more and more "bunkerized" in a way. The closest comparison to 1980 would actually be the Sanchez one, if it had failed for some reason (let's say that, for example, the Catalan secessionists do not support it). The 2018 vote also showed a bunkerized Rajoy.

I certainly do not think Abascal (or even Casado) would be successful at replicating what González did in 1980. That came from extraordinary circumstances that are hard to replicate now.

[Former President tack50]

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

All jokes aside, quite a dramatic step. I'd call it regrettable, but in light of his multiple scandals and how his democratic credentials are overrated, I rather hope they eventually catch him.

For what is worth the Spanish constitution unfortunately grants him immunity from any crimes commited while he was the actual king

So Juan Carlos' chances of ending behind bars are close to 0

[Former President tack50]

Something to note about Juan Carlos I is that he was incredibly popular in the 80s, 90s and even the 00s. He was seen, alongside Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez as one of the 2 people that successfully transitioned Spain into a proper modern European democracy; as well as the person who saved the country from regressing back into a dictatorship in the dark day of the 23rd of February 1981.

All the corruption scandals have made the monarchy now divisive at best and unpopular at worst; in fact I am relatively sure that Spain is the only European country where the monarchy would lose a referendum (though it'd be close).

Though I will say that the entire Transition process is viewed a lot more critically by everyone now, especially by people in the left. Even Suarez has lost a lot of his appeal nowadays and is viewed more critically.

Still, Juan Carlos I could have gone into history as one of the best Kings in Spanish history, possibly even the best since Carlos III all the way back in the 1700s. Instead he will go down as a corrupt and shady king only marginally better than his predecessor Alfonso XIII