Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

EDIT: In an unprecedented move, the CUP will contest the Spanish general elections. A splinter of the far-left Catalan separatist group contested the April 2019 elections under the "Republican Front" (Front Republicá) banner.

The time sharing agreement between NC and CC in Las Palmas province states that, in case they win a single seat, NC will hold 2 1/2 years and CC 1 1/2 years

CUP finally running in a general election is definitely an interesting move I did not expect. In any case they are a lock for 1 seat in Barcelona considering secessionists are radicalizing and how close FR got in April. 2 seats is doable, but tough.

Also, wtf is wrong with NC? I thought they now had bad relations with CC? Even regarding nationalism, the 2 reaching a deal seems like a bad idea that neither CC's base nor NC's base will support. This is definitely an alliance that will make them lose votes. The deal is also horribly lopsided against NC. Even in 2011 when they ran together NC got the 1st MP for Las Palmas for 4 years.

If NC wanted allies they should have gone with Errejon's party like Compromís. That would have definitely made them competitive for a seat in Las Palmas.

[Former President tack50]

The ruling against the Catalan politicians in prison for the 2017 events has just been published. The ruling is:

Rebellion: Not Guilty
Sedition: Guilty
Public funds misuse: Guilty; but Rull, Forn, Vila, Mundó and Borràs found not guilty
Disobedience: Guilty

The jail times are as follows:

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of the economy): 13 years in prison
Jordi Turull (Government speaker): 12 years in prison
Raul Romeva (Regional minister of foreign affairs): 12 years in prison
Joaquim Forn (Regional minister of the interior): 10 years and 6 months in prison
Dolors Bassa (Regional minister of labour and social affairs): 12 years in prison
Josep Rull (Regional minister of territory and sustainability): 10 years and 6 months in prison
Carme Forcadell (Parliament speaker): 11 years and 6 months in prison

Jordi Sanchez (President of the "Catalan National Assembly" association): 9 years in prison
Jordi Cuixart (President of the "Òmnium Cultural" association): 9 years in prison

Santi Vila (Regional minister of business): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office
Carles Mundó (Regional minister of justice): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office
Meritxel Borràs (Regional minister of governance): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office

From here several options can happen:

-The guilty politicians can appeal to the Spanish Constitutional Court or claim their rights were infringed upon on Spanish courts. Both will be rejected. After that they can appeal to the European Human Rights Court on similar reasons which they probably will do.

-Pedro Sánchez (or whoever ends up as PM) could pardon the Catalan politicians. This is something that would be extremely controversial especially within PSOE, but it could theoretically happen. For what's worth, Felipe González eventually pardoned General Armada and others for the 1981 coup (but not the main culprit, Antonio Tejero)

-The Catalan politicians could be given penitentiary benefits in a very brief period of time. This decision is made by the Catalan bureaucracy. If given the "Open Regime" or "Third grade", they would be free during the weekend and during weekdays and would only be in prison to sleep Monday-Thursday. If given the "Regular Regime" or "Second Grade" it would be a standard jail sentence, where they spend most of their  time in prison and are only allowed to exit for weekend trips or some sort of work. This decision can be appealed.

[Former President tack50]

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

[Former President tack50]

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

This kind of measure will definitely improve the fulcrum of Spanish society.

Spain is already divided and this ruling is roughly along the lines of what was expected (it was also partially leaked a few days before so it's not a massive surprise). This won't improve things but it certainly isn't making them much worse.

Also, this is probably the "lesser evil" sentence. Let's look at the other 2 main possibilities:

1) The Catalan politicians are found guilty of rebellion. This means even longer prison sentences (25 years) and basically means this would be equivalent to the 1981 coup attempt. The Spanish right would be happy, but Catalonia would be on fire right now (even more so) and the Spanish left would be very split (Podemos against and PSOE probably with a "we disagree but this needs to be respected" opinion I guess).

2) The Catalan politicians are found not guilty of all charges (other than disobedience which technically does not carry a prison sentence). Secessionists would be happy but it's not as if they are suddenly going to stop and become unionists. And of course the Spanish right would be furious and demanding appeals somewhere or changing the criminal code. They probably also get a big boost in the November election.

[Former President tack50]

So, in your view, it's absolutely reasonable for people whose worse crime was setting up reunions get sentenced to 9 years in jail, because keeping the right wingers at bay overweighs human rights (logic which has been used to justify many atrocities throughout history). Calling it a case of messed up priorities would be an understatement.

Their "worst crime" was not setting up reunions lol. They organized a massive illegal referendum, breaking multiple laws that ended with several incidents in the streets (though that was unfortunate).

They also repeatedly passed laws to secede Catalonia illegally and to not respect the Spanish Constitution and even the Catalan regional constitution! (Apparently 68/135 votes in favour is enough to unilaterally secede but not to reform the regional constitution).

They repeatedly broke the law and they got punished for it. The punishment is also mostly fair in my opinion.

[Former President tack50]

Even if Embezzlement were their only crime, that by itself already is punishable with long prison sentences. Up to ten years in the U.S. for instance.

For a comparison, former regional presidents of Andalucía: Manuel Chaves and Antonio Griñán are currently on trial for a corruption and embezzlement case (ERE case). The amount of money stolen is much higher than in the Catalan one. The Spanish prosecutors are asking for 6 years in prison for them.

The amount of money is much higher (iirc the money embezzled was about 1 million € for Catalonia compared to roughly 145 million for the ERE case) so it also follows that the jail time will be lower.

[Former President tack50]

Lots of big protests have happened in Catalonia since the ruling was published, beginning with a takeover of Barcelona airport. Some protests have had some violent incidents, and the rail service to France was disrupted.

Protests will continue for at the very least the rest of the week, culminating on a general strike on Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/16/police-clash-with-catalonia-protesters-in-second-night-of-violence

[Former President tack50]

I haven't been covering the election much or even paying much attention to be honest. Still, here are the campaign slogan from each of the parties in Congress right now that I could find. These seem to be pre-campaign slogans, so they will probably add a 2nd formal campaign slogan next weekend:

PSOE: Spain Now (España Ahora)
PP: For everything that unites us (Por todo lo que nos une)
Cs: Spain on the move (España en marcha)
Podemos: A government with you (Un gobierno contigo)
Vox: Spain forever (España siempre)

Notice Vox's campaign slogan is a direct attack to PSOE. Similarly, Cs seems to have gone full Macron lol.

I was unable to find the slogans from any of the nationalist and regional parties for some reason.

From the polls I’ve seen...is it safe to assume C vote is going to PP and Vox is maintaining their 10% and change?

Yeah, many former Cs voters seem to be going to PP for some reason. Meanwhile Vox isn't just maintaining their 10% but actually expanding on it a bit. In fact I would put them as slight favourites for being third.

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I
 don't expect next election to be resolutive.

The worst case scenario for the left (barring a PP-Cs-Vox win of course) is a scenario where ruling the country depends on JxCat and CUP. If that happens, Spain will get a third election or a grand coalition.

However I don't think a grand coalition is likely at all (or for that matter a PSOE minority propped up by PP abstaining). Either way, I agree this election won't be resolutive at all and the next parliament won't last for that long.

I wonder how long until politicians start advocating for a more majoritarian system. I have seen a Greece style bonus to the winner floated from time to time, which I personally dislike a lot. I've also seen 2 round systems or "automatic majority" systems floated, though usually for local elections only.

[Former President tack50]

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

[Former President tack50]

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?

You can if you want I guess but most polls do put them separately I think. Anyways it's a small change, just add about 0.2-0.3% in the popular vote and 2 seats to the right in that case.

[Former President tack50]

CIS polls are a meme at this point and should be discarded.

[Former President tack50]

The election campaign has just started, and that means I am posting all the election posters. First of all, the posters from the national parties. The slogans are the same I posted earlier, so no reason to translate them again.













To be honest they all look very similar and none are that appealing imo. I guess PSOE has the least bad one (horrible text placement though). Vox is also decent and MP goes with an interesting non-rectangular poster).

Meanwhile, here are the ones from the regional parties as well as translated slogans:

ERC: "We will come back stronger" https://ep01.epimg.net/ccaa/imagenes/2019/10/28/catalunya/1572268034_524107_1572268268_noticia_normal.jpg
JxCat: "For Catalonia, for independence, no steps backwards".
https://media.theobjective.com/2019/10/jxcat-hara-campana-con-presos-en-los-carteles-y-el-lema-ni-un-voto-atras.jpg
PNV: "Here PNV"
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/redimstd/1200/675/adjuntos/pnvNoticias/49488_imagen_0.jpg/eaj-pnv-activa-su-servicio-especial-de-comunicacio
Bildu: "One more step"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRanTPXkAAEP-L.jpg:large
CC-NC: "Let's make the Canaries stronger"
https://elapuron.com/media/2019/11/post/Pegada-Carteles-La-Palma.jpg
PRC: "Cantabria wins"
https://m.eldiario.es/fotos/repeticion-electoral-propicia-partidos-abstencion_EDIIMA20191101_0008_4.jpg

CUP: "Ungovernables"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIR1-UEX0AEI6s2.jpg:large
Teruel Exists: "It's Teruel's turn"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRsASkXUAAd7no.jpg

[Former President tack50]

Probably the best illustration of the problem with the machismo and "strong leaders" in Spanish politics.

Yeah I guess. That also makes the minor parties more interesting, particularly TE and CUP. The former using a map of Teruel province and the latter using an upside down picture of the famous lion statues in the door of the Spanish congress.

Another interesting minor poster is that from PRC, who is literally just recycling their April posters and slogans lol.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways, today was the last day that polling was legally allowed to be published. Not sure if we will see more polls tonight, but most pollsters seem to have published them between Sunday night and Monday morning. I will not post all of them, but I will post the final polling average:

PSOE: 27% (118)
PP: 21% (96)
Vox: 14% (46)
UP: 12% (33)
Cs: 9% (14)
MP: 4% (4)
Others: 39

Total left: 43% (155)
Total right: 44% (156)

So a total tie. In theory this would mean the election is too close to call, but the right has literally no allies within the "others" group (other than NA+ and maybe CC, and this last one is a stretch)

In terms of the evolution, the big changes seem to be a total Cs collapse and a massive rise for Vox. Keep in mind that Vox will get very few votes and no seats in like a third of the country (Catalonia, Basque Country, Canary Islands, Galicia); so the fact that they are this high is remarkable as it means they would be close to 20% in the rest of Spain!

In fact a recient regional poll of Andalucia put Vox in a clear third and within the margin of error from PP! For some reason the former stronghold of the left is making a hard right wing turn. If you are a believer in the Global Trends stuff, I guess Andalucia and Southern Spain are full of #populists while Catalonia is full of #coastal elitists 

If anyone is interested in sub-national polling Wikipedia has a great database

[Former President tack50]

Of course, what would any Spanish election be without analyzing the price of fruits in Andorra

Tbh I wonder if we will ever get rid of this dumb old custom. It should probably be reduced to just the last day (Saturday before the election); not the entire week.

[Former President tack50]

I'm going to vote Errejon. Tactical move.

Unless you live in Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona or Alicante it is likely to be a wasted vote tbh. Especially in places like Las Palmas or Vizcaya.

[Former President tack50]

Speaking of "the Spanish exception", the fact that the far right has now crossed the Pyrinees into Spain (and Portugal, even if they only have 1 MP there) means that Spain is no longer the largest EU country with no far right parties in parliament.

That great honor of no far right representation now apparently belongs to Romania of all countries. Romania also has no far left parties, so I guess they have the healthiest politics in Europe?

Below Romania though, the list of countries by population drops fast. The country with no far right parties is Ireland (Aontu seems to be just a single issue anti abortion party and not a proper far right one; plus technically no elected MPs). Ireland being already the 19th out of 27 EU countries by population! (and Romania the 6th).

The full list seems to be this:

Romania
Ireland
Croatia
Malta

So only 4 countries left.

[Former President tack50]

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now

[Former President tack50]

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.

Basically, I applied to vote from abroad by mail as a temporary resident abroad (ERTA vote; which is not the same as the CERA vote for permanent residents) but my ballots never arrived. Honestly I wish I could have just gone to my nearest embassy/consulate and vote there in person but that is apparently not allowed.

This article by El Pais explains the situation quite well in my opinion. Turnout among Spaniards abroad permanently was a whopping 5.6% last time.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/09/actualidad/1573326362_103978.html

[Former President tack50]

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

[Former President tack50]

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.

I believe there is no real blackout, but rather than between 8 and 9 PM barely any votes will be in. But I am also not sure

[Former President tack50]

Alternatively you can just use any Spanish news outlet, they will add the parties for you

[Former President tack50]

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

Even assuming PSOE and UP can get their differences sorted out, not really, CCa will not support a government alongside UP. Worth noting of CC's 3 seats, 2 will belong to the centre-right CC and 1 to the centre-left NCa. So NCa might break the alliance and vote for Sánchez, but who knows.

Either way it is not the most unlikely government out there if the numbers hold, but I do expect them to come short by a couple seats in the end.

[Former President tack50]

I'm watching TVE, and almost every pundit in trouncing Sanchéz speech.

Just like in April, there were cries of "With Casado No" and "With Iglesias Yes". Sánchez almost felt angry at his own party supporters during his victory speech lmao

[Former President tack50]

Also, eldiario has a nice map of the election results by municipality

By party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-municipio-10n-elecciones_0_962054215.html

By bloc: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Honestly among the funniest results imo is Teruel Existe getting in not because of rural voters, but rather because of a huge overperformance in the provincial capital of Teruel town lol. They got a whopping 42% of the vote there.

Granted, Teruel town only has 36k people, but considering that only 3 municipalities in Teruel (out of more than 200) have a population above 5000 people, it is still a hilarious thing to watch the "rural" party overperform in urban Teruel

Another observation: The suburban areas near Madrid and Zaragoza where Cs overperformed in April seem to have "gone home" for PP, though Vox gets some really interesting overperformances in more ex-urban places near Madrid (spilling well into Toledo and Guadalajara provinces) as well as in Zaragoza.