Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Velasco
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« Reply #1650 on: July 29, 2020, 07:06:58 AM »
« edited: July 29, 2020, 07:10:53 AM by Velasco »


Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)
.
Disagree. A motion of no confidence may not succeed, but that doesn't imply the motion fails miserably. Felipe Gonzalez presented a motion of no confidence in against Adolfo Suarez which was unsuccessful, but it served its purpose presenting Gonzakez as an alternative. Hernandez Mancha failed miserably in 1987 because he lacked the skills to confront Felipe Gonzalez in parliament. The 2017 motion was not that kind of failure and I remember well a devastating intervention by the UP spokeswoman Irene Montero on the PP corruption. The motion was unsuccessful because it lacked enough parliamentary support, but it was a draw in what regards the dialectical battle between Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy

(Emeritus king Juan Carlos might leave La Zarzuela)
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« Reply #1651 on: July 29, 2020, 07:26:22 AM »


Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)
.
Disagree. A motion of no confidence may not succeed, but that doesn't imply the motion fails miserably. Felipe Gonzalez presented a motion of no confidence in against Adolfo Suarez which was unsuccessful, but it served its purpose presenting Gonzakez as an alternative. Hernandez Mancha failed miserably in 1987 because he lacked the skills to confront Felipe Gonzalez in parliament. The 2017 motion was not that kind of failure and I remember well a devastating intervention by the UP spokeswoman Irene Montero on the PP corruption. The motion was unsuccessful because it lacked enough parliamentary support, but it was a draw in what regards the dialectical battle between Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy

(Emeritus king Juan Carlos might leave La Zarzuela)


At that moment Pablo iglesias made a fool of himself, lost support, and never got it back.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1652 on: July 29, 2020, 07:33:21 AM »


Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)
.
Disagree. A motion of no confidence may not succeed, but that doesn't imply the motion fails miserably. Felipe Gonzalez presented a motion of no confidence in against Adolfo Suarez which was unsuccessful, but it served its purpose presenting Gonzakez as an alternative. Hernandez Mancha failed miserably in 1987 because he lacked the skills to confront Felipe Gonzalez in parliament. The 2017 motion was not that kind of failure and I remember well a devastating intervention by the UP spokeswoman Irene Montero on the PP corruption. The motion was unsuccessful because it lacked enough parliamentary support, but it was a draw in what regards the dialectical battle between Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy

(Emeritus king Juan Carlos might leave La Zarzuela)


At that moment Pablo iglesias made a fool of himself, lost support, and never got it back.

Yeah I agree with that. Not all the support Podemos lost comes from that, but it (alonside Sanchez winning the PSOE primaries) was "the beginning of the end" for UP, where it started the gradual decline it has been for a while now

What I remember most from the 2017 no confidence debate was the brutal intervention from Ana Oramas against Iglesias. I am not the biggest fan of CC (even if I've warmed up to them a bit now that they were finally ousted regionally), but that intervention was absolutely brutal




I remember a lot of people being surprised that a party with a whopping 1 MP and 0.3% of the vote had the best intervention lol

I will also note that the 1980 no confidence vote was done in much different circumstances. At the time there was already quite a bit of infighting in UCD and Suarez was becoming more and more "bunkerized" in a way. The closest comparison to 1980 would actually be the Sanchez one, if it had failed for some reason (let's say that, for example, the Catalan secessionists do not support it). The 2018 vote also showed a bunkerized Rajoy.

I certainly do not think Abascal (or even Casado) would be successful at replicating what González did in 1980. That came from extraordinary circumstances that are hard to replicate now.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #1653 on: July 29, 2020, 07:40:17 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2020, 09:16:15 AM by Hash »


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Velasco
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« Reply #1654 on: July 29, 2020, 07:47:23 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2020, 08:08:52 AM by Velasco »


Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)
.
Disagree. A motion of no confidence may not succeed, but that doesn't imply the motion fails miserably. Felipe Gonzalez presented a motion of no confidence in against Adolfo Suarez which was unsuccessful, but it served its purpose presenting Gonzakez as an alternative. Hernandez Mancha failed miserably in 1987 because he lacked the skills to confront Felipe Gonzalez in parliament. The 2017 motion was not that kind of failure and I remember well a devastating intervention by the UP spokeswoman Irene Montero on the PP corruption. The motion was unsuccessful because it lacked enough parliamentary support, but it was a draw in what regards the dialectical battle between Pablo Iglesias and Mariano Rajoy

(Emeritus king Juan Carlos might leave La Zarzuela)


At that moment Pablo iglesias made a fool of himself, lost support, and never got it back.

The motion of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy is not the reason why Pablo Iglesias lost support. On the contrary, I think Pablo Iglesias tried to compensate his errors between the December 2015 and June 2016 elections. Among other reasons, Iglesias lost ground because he disappointed his voters paving the way for the continuity of the corrupt PP in government after the electoral repetition of 2016. Simultaneously UP failed in surpassing the PSOE as the main party of the left. Since then, Pablo Iglesias worked hard to oust Rajoy from power and played a key role in the success of the motion presented by Pedro Sanchez. Later Sanchez made another error going to the electoral repetition of 2019, which proved to be a fiasco of unpredictable consequences
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1655 on: July 29, 2020, 07:49:04 AM »

Simultaneously UP failed in surpassing the PSOE as the main party of the left

Yes, its easy to forget now but there was a time when that seemed not just possible but even likely.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1656 on: July 29, 2020, 08:52:15 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2020, 02:31:59 PM by Velasco »


Yeah I agree with that. Not all the support Podemos lost comes from that, but it (alonside Sanchez winning the PSOE primaries) was "the beginning of the end" for UP, where it started the gradual decline it has been for a while now

What I remember most from the 2017 no confidence debate was the brutal intervention from Ana Oramas against Iglesias. I am not the biggest fan of CC (even if I've warmed up to them a bit now that they were finally ousted regionally), but that intervention was absolutely brutal




I remember a lot of people being surprised that a party with a whopping 1 MP and 0.3% of the vote had the best intervention lol

I will also note that the 1980 no confidence vote was done in much different circumstances. At the time there was already quite a bit of infighting in UCD and Suarez was becoming more and more "bunkerized" in a way. The closest comparison to 1980 would actually be the Sanchez one, if it had failed for some reason (let's say that, for example, the Catalan secessionists do not support it). The 2018 vote also showed a bunkerized Rajoy.

I certainly do not think Abascal (or even Casado) would be successful at replicating what González did in 1980. That came from extraordinary circumstances that are hard to replicate now.

Ana Oramas is good on stage, but she's the last person who should criticize the waste of public money coming from a party with a good expertise in squandering. Her argument sounds demagogic to someone who is familiar to the CC style of government in the Canary Islands, but I concede it's effective for an audience unfamiliar to the CC regime and broadly hostile to Podemos. In what regards the argument of the lost opportunity for a "centre-left government", I'd only buy half of it because it's a half truth. I concur with people like Errejon that it would have been better to allow the investiture of Sanchez as a lesser evil, but that PSOE-Cs joint venture lacked a majority in Congress and did not represent the progressive majority of that time. Also, Sanchez had his hands tied by a party which wasn't controlled by him at that time. The 'barons' and Gonzalez told Sanchez that he could not make deals with the Catalan nationalists and banned implicitly deals with Podemos. Again, the decline of the Podemos fortunes came from the errors of that 2015-2016 interregnum (partly due to the arrogance of Iglesias, but the situation was very complex) and from the infighting ( Iglesias vs Errejon), not from that motion in 2017. And Irene Montero was excellent in her denunciation of corruption. Nobody compared the 2017 motion to the 1980 motion, but the comparison with 1987 seems totally inaccurate to me
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« Reply #1657 on: July 31, 2020, 06:10:29 AM »

Why September? They're going to put on a show for months only for it to fail miserably. They're probably (obviously?) doing it to denounce Sánchez for a while, then accuse the PP of not being anti-Sánchez enough for not supporting the motion as a way to capitalize the right wing vote. I just don't think it's particularly clever.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1658 on: July 31, 2020, 07:30:23 AM »

Today is the 125th anniversary of the PNV- For many people, the Basque Nationalist Party is the most efficient and successful among the political organizations operating in Spain (or the "Spanish State"). Basque premier Ďńigo Urkullu is finally attending a meeting in oerson (not videoconference) scheduled today at San Millán de la Cogolla (a monastery in La Rioja), with Pedro Sánchez and the regional premiers except Joaquim Torra. The Catalan premier refused the invitation in protest for the presence of king Felipe, while Urkullu accepted after the Spanish and Basque governments reached a last minute agreement to allow the diputaciones forales (provincial governments) get into debt.

Why September? They're going to put on a show for months only for it to fail miserably. They're probably (obviously?) doing it to denounce Sánchez for a while, then accuse the PP of not being anti-Sánchez enough for not supporting the motion as a way to capitalize the right wing vote. I just don't think it's particularly clever.


Pedro Sánchez looked happy when Santiago Abascal announced the motion in Congress, while Pablo Casado could hardly hide his displeasure behind the face mask. Sánchez said the motion is really against Casado, implying the motivation is to dispute the leadership of the anti-Sánchez feeling.
 
Personally I think the overacting and the politics of the spectacle prevent an effective opposition. The current outbreaks suggest the government is not managing well the deescalation (the responsibility was fully transferred to regional governments, possibly too fast). During the worst stages, PP and Vox have been devoted to hyperbole, harassment and destabilization. Now they are apparently too busy to see the actual errors of the government and propose credible alternatives
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Velasco
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« Reply #1659 on: August 01, 2020, 03:23:55 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2020, 07:42:28 PM by Velasco »

According to rumours, Catalan premier Quim Torra is considering to call elections next autumn. However, the pandemic makes said rumours uncertain: there will be elections only in case it's possible to hold them. Torra is a Puigdemont loyalist who ran as an independent in the JxCAT list. Currently JxCAT is involved in a process that will transform the coalition in a new party or political movement under the leadership of Carles Puigdemoont, without the parties that formed said coalition: PDeCAT and CDC. Puigdemont seeks breaking the links with the CiU legacy (tarnished by the corruption of the Pujol family), in order to launch big tent separatist movement free from partisan and ideological chains.  PDeCAT members are invited to join the new JxCAT on individual basis, in what the Catalan nationalist press calls a "hostile bid". Puigdemont is seeking to dispute the next Catalan elections to ERC and Oriol Junqueras. Despite ERC has been consistently leading the polls, the ousted premier has serious chances of success. The man who is living in Waterloo is undeniably the great illusionist of the present day Catalan politics.

The last CEO (aka "the Catalan CIS") poll shows that JxCAT is closing in

ERC 33-34 seats (22.1%)
JxCAT 32-33 (20.9%)
PSC 24 (17%)
Cs 19 (14.4%)
CatComu-Podem 9-10 (8.2%)
PP 5-7 (5.5%)
CUP 6-7 (4.9%)
VOX 3-4 (4%)

The poll projects resultts for the general elections in Catalonia (Congress of Deputies) that are similar in essence to theNovember 2019 results.

Despite the projected solid pro-independence majority in the Parliament of Catalonia, the poll says support for independence is not growing and the percentage of people answering "No" reaches historical levels in the CEO series: 42% Yes Vs 50.5% No
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« Reply #1660 on: August 01, 2020, 08:07:03 AM »

So there are still some people left who vote for nationalists but don't support independence? A relic of when CiU was merely a regionalist party I guess?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1661 on: August 01, 2020, 01:37:37 PM »

So there are still some people left who vote for nationalists but don't support independence? A relic of when CiU was merely a regionalist party I guess?

There are supporters of independence that reject unilateralism and supporters of nationalist parties that could accept alternative solutions to independence. Possibly hardcore independence supporters amount 30% and the remaining percentage is nationalist or sovereigntist in varying degrees, but such feelings are not easy to measure
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Velasco
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« Reply #1662 on: August 03, 2020, 03:55:55 PM »

Embattled 'emeritus' king Juan Carlos to leave the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53642283

Quote
Juan Carlos, 82, made the announcement in a letter to his son, Felipe, to whom he handed power six years ago.

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

In June, Spain's Supreme Court opened an investigation into the alleged involvement of Juan Carlos in a high-speed rail contract in Saudi Arabia.

It was not immediately clear when the former monarch would leave Spain and where he would reside.

It is a humiliating exit for a king who had seemed set to go down in history as the leader who skilfully guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975, BBC Europe correspondent Nick Beake says.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1663 on: August 03, 2020, 04:13:56 PM »

Quote
He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.



All jokes aside, quite a dramatic step. I'd call it regrettable, but in light of his multiple scandals and how his democratic credentials are overrated, I rather hope they eventually catch him.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1664 on: August 03, 2020, 04:44:32 PM »

Embattled 'emeritus' king Juan Carlos to leave the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53642283

Quote
Juan Carlos, 82, made the announcement in a letter to his son, Felipe, to whom he handed power six years ago.

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

In June, Spain's Supreme Court opened an investigation into the alleged involvement of Juan Carlos in a high-speed rail contract in Saudi Arabia.

It was not immediately clear when the former monarch would leave Spain and where he would reside.

It is a humiliating exit for a king who had seemed set to go down in history as the leader who skilfully guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975, BBC Europe correspondent Nick Beake says.

According to Portuguese media, he's going to exile in Cascais in the house the royal family owns there. Don't know if it is the same as his childhood one.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1665 on: August 03, 2020, 08:25:33 PM »

Quote
He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.



All jokes aside, quite a dramatic step. I'd call it regrettable, but in light of his multiple scandals and how his democratic credentials are overrated, I rather hope they eventually catch him.

For what is worth the Spanish constitution unfortunately grants him immunity from any crimes commited while he was the actual king

So Juan Carlos' chances of ending behind bars are close to 0
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Velasco
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« Reply #1666 on: August 03, 2020, 09:34:33 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2020, 10:38:43 PM by Velasco »

Embattled 'emeritus' king Juan Carlos to leave the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53642283

Quote
Juan Carlos, 82, made the announcement in a letter to his son, Felipe, to whom he handed power six years ago.

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

In June, Spain's Supreme Court opened an investigation into the alleged involvement of Juan Carlos in a high-speed rail contract in Saudi Arabia.

It was not immediately clear when the former monarch would leave Spain and where he would reside.

It is a humiliating exit for a king who had seemed set to go down in history as the leader who skilfully guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975, BBC Europe correspondent Nick Beake says.

According to Portuguese media, he's going to exile in Cascais in the house the royal family owns there. Don't know if it is the same as his childhood one.

Juan Carlos departed on Sunday, according to Spanish media, but his destination is unknown. His father Juan de Borbón was exiled in Portugal during the Franco regime. The exiled prince and the Caudillo arranged that Juan Carlos would get his education in Spain and the future king made his first visit to the country in 1948. Maybe he will return to Portugal, it'd be interesting...

I'd be happy if Juan Carlos pays taxes for the illegal money as a service to the country, but that is not going to happen. The chances that Juan Carlos ends his days behind the bars are virtually nonexistent. He has a legal shield and the judiciary in Spain is mostly monarchist and leans to the right.

At this point I'd say the PSOE support is key for the monarchy, as the institution could hardly resist if it's only backed by the rightwing parties. However, I suspect that PSOE voters are not very monarchist nowadays
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« Reply #1667 on: August 04, 2020, 12:46:21 AM »

Y’all better wise up and embrace Republicanism. This is the perfect moment.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1668 on: August 04, 2020, 04:11:22 AM »


I would gladly embrace republicanism, but I don't think this moment is so perfect. Right now Spain is embattled by multiple crises: health emergency, dire economic situation, deteriorated prestige of parties and institutions (once upon a time, the monarchy was the most valued), the Catalan mess... Like the journalist Enric Juliana says, the country stands up thanks to the unequivocal democratic will of a majority of the population (most of the people was born after Franco) and the European safety net (the EU's reconstruction deal is vital for Spain, literally). This context is not the best to shake up institutional stability, so I understand that the socialist part of the government is backing king Felipe right now. Also, constitutional reforms need a consensus that is impossible to reach in a context of political polarization (Spain's perennial problem). I'm far from being a monarchist and l think it's no longer possible refusing to discuss the matter, but I don't see Spain proclaiming the Third Republic tomorrow (maybe the following day)
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« Reply #1669 on: August 04, 2020, 04:17:01 AM »

I wonder if this is gasoline to the fire that is the Catalonia issue and its upcoming election.
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« Reply #1670 on: August 04, 2020, 05:29:55 AM »

why is criminal allowed to leave? in western europe, in 21st century, there are still first class and second class citizens, sad.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1671 on: August 04, 2020, 05:50:01 AM »

I wonder if this is gasoline to the fire that is the Catalonia issue and its upcoming election.

The monarchy was massively unpopular in Catalonia already, so who knows. The speech of King Felipe after the sham referendum in October 2017 didn't help. He spoke in defence of the State and the rule of the law, but many people inside and outside Catalonia think he wasn't empathetic with the victims of the police brutality (he didn't say a word about them). Felipe and his daughter speak Catalan, though.

I've just just read this article by Javier Pérez Royo stating the obvious: this is not a family affair. The Constitution says that the Crown belongs to the Nation , so the Congress must have a say as the representative of the popular sovereignty. It's time that the royals become fully transparent and accountable and the Congress should decide what to do with them in the present circumstances

https://www.eldiario.es/contracorriente/momento-cortes-generales_132_6145838.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #1672 on: August 04, 2020, 06:38:08 AM »

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1673 on: August 04, 2020, 07:15:04 AM »

Something to note about Juan Carlos I is that he was incredibly popular in the 80s, 90s and even the 00s. He was seen, alongside Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez as one of the 2 people that successfully transitioned Spain into a proper modern European democracy; as well as the person who saved the country from regressing back into a dictatorship in the dark day of the 23rd of February 1981.

All the corruption scandals have made the monarchy now divisive at best and unpopular at worst; in fact I am relatively sure that Spain is the only European country where the monarchy would lose a referendum (though it'd be close).

Though I will say that the entire Transition process is viewed a lot more critically by everyone now, especially by people in the left. Even Suarez has lost a lot of his appeal nowadays and is viewed more critically.

Still, Juan Carlos I could have gone into history as one of the best Kings in Spanish history, possibly even the best since Carlos III all the way back in the 1700s. Instead he will go down as a corrupt and shady king only marginally better than his predecessor Alfonso XIII
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1674 on: August 04, 2020, 07:19:37 AM »

why is criminal allowed to leave?

Well for one thing, however damning the evidence he hasn't actually been convicted of anything - or indeed yet charged? If that had happened, things would doubtless be different.
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