Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

While the national government formation process has been the one taking up everyone's attention, for obvious reasons, there have also been many problems at the regional level, much more than usual (remember Spain has only ever had 1 repeat regional election; Madrid 2003; and even that one required PP literally bribing 2 regional PSOE MPs). Anyways, here is how government formation at the regional level looks like:

Governments already formed and sworn in

Castille-La Mancha (PSOE Majority)
Extremadura (PSOE majority)
Cantabria (PRC-PSOE coalition)
Castille-Leon (PP-Cs coalition)
Asturias (PSOE minority with external IU support)
Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)
Balearic Islands (PSOE-Més-UP coalition)

Special cases

Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)
Melilla: Cs mayor elected with literally only 1 seat; propped up by the local muslim party (CpM) and PSOE

No government making votes done yet

Aragon: After Cs rejected a PSOE-Cs government and centrist regionalist PAR rejected a right wing PP-Cs-Vox-PAR government, it seemed the only viable option was PAR defecting and supporting a PSOE-ChA-PAR-Podemos-IU left wing government. PSOE has ruled both with ChA-Podemos-IU and with PAR in the past, so getting both is not imposssible. PSOE and PAR have already reached a deal. It is also very likely that they will reach a deal with ChA. At that point they need IU to support them and Podemos to abstain (or viceversa).

The government formation vote is scheduled for the 30th or 31st of July

Navarra: PSOE, IU, Podemos and big tent Basque nationalist GBai (which functions as a sort of PNV branch in Navarra) have reached a government deal. However they need Bildu to abstain, and PSOE absolutely refuses to negotiate anything with Bildu. So it's unclear whether Bildu will give them a free pass or not.

No government formation vote has been scheduled yet. The deadline for a government to be formed is the 26th of August

Places with already failed government votes

La Rioja: Here PSOE and UP theoretically have enough seats for a bare 1 seat majority. However during negotiations, IU and Podemos (1 seat each) split due to differences regarding coalition building. Just like nationally, Podemos requested seats in the regional executive (IU did not). The first vote failed yesterday. The second vote is scheduled for tomorrow, and there has been a lot of pressure upon the lone Podemos MP, even from her own party, to vote yes. However it's unclear what will happen. The situation is remarkably similar to the national one

Murcia: Here PP and Cs negotiated a coalition deal, and then PP offered to negotiate a separate deal with Vox; very similar to Andalucía. However, Vox rejected these conditions this time and requested a 3 way negotiation with Cs, which Cs categorically refuses. Unlike Podemos, Vox is not requesting any regional executive seats but they do request a direct negotiation with Cs. In the end, Vox voted against the PP-Cs government alongside the left.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 2nd of September

Madrid: The exact same scenario as Murcia (Vox demands a 3 way negotiation with PP and Cs, Cs refuses) except with more attention nationally because of course (it's Madrid after all). The only difference is that instead of a proper government vote, in Madrid they had a "Candidate-less government vote", just to start the clock to count down.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 10th of September

I believe Aragon will almost certainly see a successful government. Navarra is iffy, but I believe Bildu will cave. Finally, I believe internal pressure will force Podemos in La Rioja to cave, even if it may set a bad precedent nationally (though the vote disparity is much larger than nationally and Podemos made some ridiculous demands in La Rioja). The toughest ones to predict are the 2 involving Vox in my opinion.

Of course it is possible that no one caves, whether nationally or regionally and we end up with like 5 separate regional elections in different weeks in Autumn, alongside a national one as well. Sounds fun for political nerds (read: Atlas forum) but I imagine Spaniards will end up tired lol

[Former President tack50]

Yeah it seems unlikely that a government will happen, and Sánchez will be the most blamed for the 2nd election if it does happen.

Certainly the polls with PSOE in the low-mid 30s are not to be believed. Most likely the right also falls short and we end up in a bigger mess

[Former President tack50]

Final result of the first round of votes (Majority needed: 176)

Yes: 124 (PSOE, PRC)
Abstain: 52 (UP, PNV, Bildu, Compromis)
No: 170 (PP, Cs, Vox, ERC, JxCat, CC, NA+)

[Former President tack50]

Yeah it seems unlikely that a government will happen, and Sánchez will be the most blamed for the 2nd election if it does happen.

Certainly the polls with PSOE in the low-mid 30s are not to be believed. Most likely the right also falls short and we end up in a bigger mess

Yeah, I just am watching in amazement at how bad Sanchez is at politics. He may very well be booting one of the best situations for the left in Europe in a long while, all for no obvious reason other than a dramatically inflated sense of confidence. New elections will bury UP and strengthen PP, which strikes me as quite a lot worse for Sanchez than Podemos today. Amazing.

My theory is that Sanchez would rather crush UP and present himself as the uncontested leader of the Spanish left than risk UP eventually overtaking PSOE. Even if that means he won't be PM anymore

[Former President tack50]

Real problem is Spain is not used to minority governments so no incentive for anyone to cooperate whereas in other countries like Germany, Netherlands, and Nordic Countries, minorities are the norm so parties have more incentive to cooperate.  Since minorities appear to be the norm in the future, I suspect one of two things will happen:
1.  They will start cooperating and in fact Citizens being in the centre may show greater openness to work with other side.  Heck the equivalents of PP and PSOE in Germany are right now in a coalition, but that is probably a bridge too far.
2.  Like Italy and Greece, they introduce bonus seats to increase the chance of a majority

One reason why I am glad where I live uses FTFP since for all its flaws, things like this happen far less often.

Well, from what it seems, option 2 might be more likely than what one would think. In recient times there have been 2 proposals by PP and PSOE floated at different times:

1: A seat majority bonus, almost like the one in Greece. With this proposal, the Congress would expand to 399 or 400 seats, and there would be a 49-50 seat bonus given to the winner. This option is of dubious constitutionality as the constitution specifies MPs must be elected by province and be elected proportionally,

2: Changing the government formation system to the one used in local elections, where if after 2 months there is no agreements, the leader of the largest party automatically becomes PM (so in this case Sánchez, in 2016 Rajoy). This needs a constitutional reform for sure.

Of course neither solution is perfect. Option 1 would mean that PSOE-UP would automatically get a majority, but given the problems right now who knows if they would actually make a deal!

And option 2 just delays the deadlock for a couple months, until a budget or big government law needs to be passed.

I don't like either option, though I would rather have option 2 than option 1 if we go with either.

One reason why I am glad where I live uses FTFP since for all its flaws, things like this happen far less often.

Pls, just dont. We get it, you like FPTP, but going to European threads with little actual knowledge of the political situation, and saying that FPTP would be better and we would not have all this mess, it is really not very helpful. You are not the only guy doing it, computer89 was doing it on the Israel thread too, for example. The rest of your post was not an issue for me, but this, this is really beating a dead horse.

Also, like Canada has had a ton of minority Governments too, despite FPTP.

Actually, if we were to try and switch to a majoritarian system, FPTP is vastly superior than a seat bonus. At least FPTP gives you local representation unlike a seat majority bonus like Greece.

But I'm a weird Spanish fan of FPTP, 90% of Spaniards would disagree with me

Worth noting that during the Restauración regime (1876-1923), Spain did use a weird form of FPTP I believe, with MPs elected from multi member constituencies through block vote (kind of like the modern day Senate)? Cáánovas del Castillo and Sagasta were massive fans of the UK's system, to the point where they even ripped off the parties of the day! (Liberals and Conservatives)

However elections back then were completely rigged and more of "electoral type events", so no one really cares or knows much about that.

[Former President tack50]

Sanchez has leaked on purpose the demands UP was making. UP demanded the deputy PM post (with competences in social rights and the envirnonment) as well as the ministries of Labour, Social rights, Equality, Science, Ecologic transition and Treasury (to be renamed "Fiscal Justice and fight against Fraud" ministry)

If you understand Spanish you can read the leaked document here:

https://es.scribd.com/document/419644189/Exigencias-de-Unidas-Podemos-al-PSOE

[Former President tack50]

PSOE also leaked their final proposal to Podemos. That one consisted of the deputy PM post and 3 ministries: Housing, Healthcare and Equality

[Former President tack50]

Has there been much of an immigration debate in the government formation talks?  Is there much difference between PSOE and UP on the issue?

No, not really. Immigration is very low in the list of priorities for Spaniards. Even Vox doesn't talk about it that much compared to other similar parties in Europe

[Former President tack50]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?

In order to get a majority in Spain, you pretty much need at least 40% of the vote. A good example is the 1989 general election, where Felipe González won exactly 175/350 seats in Congress with 39.6% of the vote. So no, a PSOE majority is impossible.

A government propped up only by regional parties is a bit more realistic, albeit not much more so. Easy to get regional parties would be PNV (6 seats), Compromís (1 seat) and PRC (1 seat), so Sánchez would need at least 168 seats in order to get a majority with them. If he could also get ERC and Bildu to abstain (even as Podemos votes no!) that would bring the required number of seats down as well, probably to the high 150s range, which is doable with 35% of the vote, although realistically it would imply PSOE a bit higher than that.

[Former President tack50]

Here is also another poll, this time from NC Report / La Razón.

PSOE: 29.5% (127-130)
PP: 21.9% (84-87)
Cs: 13.9% (49-52)
UP: 13.1% (33-36)
Vox: 7.7% (15-17)

https://www.larazon.es/espana/espana-se-abona-al-desgobierno-ningun-bloque-sumaria-mayoria-de-repetirse-elecciones-FG24777992

The Sociométrica / El Español poll also included an interesting alternative poll where PP, Cs and Vox run together in a single coalition (as PP has been suggesting lately, at least with Cs, not so much with Vox; needless to say it's not going anywhere), as well as a Senate simulation (not like the Spanish Senate matters):

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-no-lograria-congreso-movilizaria-izquierda/425958035_0.html

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-provocaria-vuelco-senado-llegar-controlarlo/425958065_0.html

[Former President tack50]

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

Worth noting that back in April it was both the left and the right who were energized. It is also worth noting that the Spanish right as a whole needs to be polling close to 50% in order to get a majority because of their division in 3 parties.

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's assume that in the repeat November election turnout will drop to 65%; which mind you would be the lowest in Spanish history, even lower than 2016 (2019 was not that high by historical standards; certainly nowhere near 1982 levels of 80% or even 2008 levels of 74%).

Let's also assume this turnout drop is exclusively because of left wing parties (split proportionally between PSOE and UP), with the right holding all their voters. The popular vote results would be thus as follows. Percentages are after excluding blank/null ballots (which I have kept equal to 2019):

Total turnout in November: 23 984 274
Vote drop April-November: 2 493 866

PSOE: 5 754 966 (24.5%)
PP: 4 373 653 (18.6%)
Cs: 4 155 665 (17.7%)
UP: 2 399 790 (10.2%)
Vox: 2 688 092 (11.4%)

Right bloc: 47.7%
Left bloc: 34.7%

Certainly a commading lead for the right of 15 points (which iirc would be the best result for the Spanish right ever, or at least on par with 2011). However, would it be enough for the right to climb over the 176 seat mark?

With this handy seat calculator, the right would get 181 seats. So, in a repeat election a right wing majority is within the margin of error, though their chances I would put at less than 50% (this is a "perfect" scenario for the right after all). Mind you even if the right falls short and gets like 170 that doesn't mean the left will be able to form a government as that probably implies getting people like Puigdemont's JxCat to openly vote yes, which isn't happening.

[Former President tack50]

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.

[Former President tack50]

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

To be honest, that is a very surprising place for the richest precinct in town which I did not expect. The surrounding area is certainly well above the city/regional average, but not quite the richest in town (around 14000-18000€), so that precinct stands out quite a bit.

If I had been asked, I would have probably pointed out to the Ciudad Jardín area (large houses in the city center, a bit to the north of where this precinct is) or maybe the Tafira parts that fall inside LPGC (rich suburbs/exurbs, right at the edge of the municipality line)

Of course, in terms of voting places like Ciudad Jardín and Tafira see similar patterns, while similarly, other poor areas in town see similar voting patterns to the places you showed

[Former President tack50]

What I can take from these analysis is that income is probably still the most important factor on determining whether you vote left or right in Spain; unlike in other western countries.

However other factors more popular elsewhere like age and education still play an important role as they determine which party within the left or the right you vote for. If you are a poor young urban person with college in Madrid you are probably a Podemos voter; while if you are a poor illiterate rural farmer in Andalucia you are a PSOE voter.

Same applies on the right, if you are a rich suburban young and educated person in Madrid, you are voting Cs, while if you are a rich old retiree with only primary school education in Castille you are probably voting PP; and if you are a middle aged voter in a town with a lot of immigrants in Murcia you are voting Vox.

So voters that lived under Franco’s rule actually vote conservative in much higher proportion than other voters?!

Well, let's see. Franco died 44 years ago, though in practice to even have a memory of him you would need to be in your 50s, and to have a meaningful amount of time you would be in your 60s.

So the answer is yes and no, but overall leaning towards yes. It's hard to say because of the weird way age crosstabs are done here (compared to other countries), but probably.

Old voters who lived the Franco era definitely are massive PP hacks. PP is almost majority retirees! However, Cs scores very low among them and even Vox is only average. Meanwhile PSOE does fairly well among old voters, albeit not as much as PP.

[Former President tack50]

PSOE has already replied to Cs' offer. They claim that Cs should abstain as they already fulfill the 3 conditions by Cs.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/16/5d7f74a1fc6c8300768b45cc.html

[Former President tack50]

Apparently the BBVA foundation made a study about the social and political attitudes of Spain and the 5 largest EU countries (France, Spain, Italy, UK and Germany). Here are some findings of the politics part of the study for Spain and for the average of the 5 countries. The study is extremely interesting regardless.

https://www.fbbva.es/noticias/los-europeos-confian-en-el-estado-y-en-sus-grupos-profesionales-e-instituciones-pero-no-en-los-politicos/

-Spain has the most self-identified left wing population of the 5 countries. 20% of Spaniards identify as far leftists (0-2) compared to 10% elsewhere. The average is also at 4.4/10 compared to 5/10 for Europe at large

-This gets amplified among young voters aged 18-24. A whopping 31% of them identify as far leftists while that number is only 8% in Europe. There is also a clear correlation with young people being left and old people being right in Spain (minus a spike for the left at age 55-64) while that correlation does not exist in Europe at-large.

-There is also a correlation with education, with higher educated people being more left wing. This correlation does also exist in Europe at-large though

-Interestingly, Spain has an slightly above average amoung of far rightists (8-10) as well: 11% compared to 10% for Europe at large.

-Democracy's performance in Spain is rated as bad (getting a 4.6/10), though that is still higher than elsewhere in Europe minus Germany. More interestingly, there is no correlation by education here in Spain, while everywhere else people with higher education think democracy is working better than those with low education

-Spain has the lowest approval rating for "traditional parties", tied with Germany at 55%

-When voting, Spanish people value ideology much higher than Europe at-large and the knowledge of party leaders lower than Europe at-large

-74% of Spanish people believe the state should guarantee a minimum and decent living standard. This is much higher than in the rest of Europe, with the average being at 51%

-Spanish people also think more than Europe at-large that it's the responsability of the state to "control business profits", "provide healthcare coverage to all citizens" or "control salaries", among other traditional left wing policies

-Spanish people support a more egalitarian income distribution much more than the rest of Europe. Income redistribution in favour of equality is above water 49-43 in Spain while it's down 29-64 elsewhere

-Regarding this point, while there is a correlation by education both in Spain and in the rest of Europe (with educated people supporting income redistribution less), the correlation is much stronger in the rest of Europe (in fact in Spain it's actually "middle educated" people who support that and not the lowest educated!)

-The EU has a much higher approval rating in Spain than in the rest of Europe, being at +48 approval compared to +25 approval in Europe at large

[Former President tack50]

It's happening

Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.

Well, there is another option: someone caves (whether it's PSOE, Cs, PP or Podemos).

In my opinion, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Right wing majority: The right forms a government. Whether that is PP-Cs with Vox outside support or a 3 way, I don't know, but it seems the right would be more responsible. However, I would personally love if the right was also unable to form a government and we went to infinite elections

2) JxCat as the key vote: This almost definitely guarantees a 3rd round of elections. The only possibility would be a PSOE government propped up by the centre-right, which probably is not happening. If Puigdemont's party ends up as the decisive vote, Spain goes to a third election.

3) Scenario similar to the current one: Probably the most likely scenario, albeit with some variations (PSOE+Cs probably won't have a majority again). Still, basically the entire country gets a big case of Deja Vu. Someone still needs to cave

4) PSOE+moderate nationalists/regionalists gets a majority: Unlike what is thought, PSOE does not technically need a majority to win. Assuming Podemos keeps abstaining after another election, just a small increase of PSOE and decrease of the right would be enough for a PSOE minority. Here's the scenario I'm describing, but with current numbers:

Yes: PSOE+PNV+Compromis+PRC (131)
Abstain: Podemos+ERC+Bildu+CC
No: PP+Cs+Vox+JxCat+NS (156)

So PSOE needs to basically gain around 13 seats or so, while at the same time the right loses just as many. PSOE getting into the low-mid 140 seats while Podemos and the nationalists hold is certainly concievable; just not particularly likely.

[Former President tack50]

How likely is a right wing majority.  Polls don't show it, but with low turnout I've heard that tends to favour the right.  Also if right wins won't there be huge re-incriminations on both parties on the left why they blew this when there were so many opportunities to find a way out.  If a repeat of the status quo, I have a tough time not seeing at least one party caving.  My guess is between Cs, UP, and PSOE, whichever party loses most seats will have greatest interest in caving while any party who gains has none.

If the math I did a while back is accurate, a right wing majority becomes possible if turnout drops below 66% or so (coincidentally, also the level of turnout in 2016).

However that math made the assumption that no votes would change in the right (it's not impossible to see Cs drop and the electoral system ing them over) and that literally all right wing voters would turn out again, which is probaly unrealistic even if their turnout will hold much better.

Also, your guess is probably right. However it's worth noting that if polling is accurate Cs is the party that is likeliest to lose seats, yet if they lose seats a PSOE+Cs deal becomes unlikely.

[Former President tack50]

Is there any possibility of getting JxCat to abstain?

Probably not given that JxCat seems to be now the "tough" party that wants independence at all costs (only slightly less so than CUP) while ERC is now the "moderate" party that wants dialogue and what not.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently memes have invaded our own dimension.

A TV presenter named called Risto Mejide, who presents a program in Spanish TV is going to form his own party and run in the general elections in Madrid.

His party name is "Peor No lo Haremos" (We can't do worse) and his platform allegedly includes taking away the politicians' salaries as long as there is not a government in place, that people found guilty of corruption should return the illegally appropiated money, strengthening separation of powers and eliminating the lifetime salaries some retired politicians get (most notably former PMs). He is also pledging to only run for 1 term.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/television/20190919/47478787551/risto-mejide-candidato-elecciones-generales-10n-partido-politico-pnlh-todo-es-mentira.html

https://twitter.com/todoesmentiratv/status/1174684231739551744

#PNLH is running in Madrid constituency and we need signatures to run!

Assuming he does end up running for real, he needs 3% of the vote to get in in Madrid. Which is low enough that it should be achievable but who knows.

I could see this going anywhere from Spanish 5Star to Spanish Die PARTEI lol

[Former President tack50]

There's an alternate universe out there where Carme Chacón and Inés Arrimadas are leading Spain into a utopian liberal centrist future

That alternate universe sounds pretty nice considering the present

Tbh considering how bad PSOE was doing in the early 2010s, PM Carme Chacón was probably never going to happen (especially considering she retired in 2016 and died in 2017). I can easily see her doing better than Rubalcaba, but 2011 was completely unwinnable for PSOE. If she manages to survive all the way to 2015 she does have a strong chance though, depends on whether she outperforms Sánchez or not. Since she died in 2017, I imagine her death would have been seen as some sort of "national tragedy" I guess.

As for Inés Arrimadas, she still has a future so don't count her out (though a PM from Cs is not going to happen soon, she is definitely going to end up as Rivera's replacement)

[Former President tack50]

Madrid getting a Madrid nationalist party has to be peak Spanish politics

(Yes, Errejon's party is not going to be nationalist or even regionalist in any meaningful way but still)

[Former President tack50]

Errejón officially running, the party assembly passed the motion to run in the general election in a landslide.

Still no idea if they will run only in Madrid; in Madrid plus a handful of provinces with a lot of seats (Valencia, Barcelona, Seville, etc) or in all of Spain. I think it will probably be the 1st or 2nd, I can't see MM getting enough people to run everywhere in 2 weeks or so, even if they managed to get into enough deals with regional parties

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left

How likely do you think it is the election resolves this?  Looking at the polls it looks like a bigger stalemate so will when party cave in?

If results are close to the current polling I guess PSOE eventually caves with a deal not too different from the July one