Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

TV3-GAD3 poll, popular vote:

PSC: 24.5%
ERC: 24.3%
Junts: 20.5%
Comuns: 6%
Vox 5.9%
CUP: 5.4%
Cs 5.3%
PP 4.6%
PDeCat: 2.5%

Secessionists >50% for the first time ever

[Former President tack50]

First polling place reporting, some random place in Tarragona province (almost certainly super rural):

JxCat: 42.86%
ERC: 28.57%
PSC: 7.14%
CUP: 7.14%
Primaries: 7.14%
Vox: 3.57%

[Former President tack50]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

IMO ERC and Junts will just do a deal one way or the other. Then if need be CUP will provide outside support.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways, finally we have votes from all provinces.

0.01% of the vote in

JxCat 60
ERC 32
CUP 16
PDECat 12
PSC 8
ECP 3
PP 2
Vox 1

Needless to say, this won't last and secessionist areas count first

[Former President tack50]

Wonderful strategy from the 155 hardliners. Really worked wonders! 15 seats overall? lmfao

In fairness to the "trifachito", that is pretty much PP's historical base from back in the day; 15 seats or so were the norm for them.

[Former President tack50]

CUP abstention is the likeliest scenario yeah; woth Comuns abstaining being a very distant second

[Former President tack50]

Precinct map from eldiario.es:

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?

The explanation may well be more complicated than this, but wouldn't you expect a place that leans left unionist-speaking to also lean left separatist-speaking?

Actually this is correct. As of now, ERC is probably the party in Catalonia that has the broadest coalition and is the most evenly spread by far.

Instead of having very strong strongholds and being weak elsewhere, it manages to get decent minorities everywhere.