Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

why is criminal allowed to leave?

Well for one thing, however damning the evidence he hasn't actually been convicted of anything - or indeed yet charged? If that had happened, things would doubtless be different.

Not sure if this applies to the British Queen, but it is worth noting that it is actually impossible to charge the king for any crime commited while he was the head of state. So any bribes he took up until 2014 are 100% legal and he cannot be prosecuted for it.

Juan Carlos I could have murdered somebody in broad daylight and he would not have spent a single day in prison.

The fact that the king cannot be judged or sentenced to anything is also recognized in the Spanish Constitution:

The person of the King is inviolable and shall not be held accountable.

[Former President tack50]

For the record, I will say that reforming the constitution to get rid of the monarchy is nearly impossible. Even if PP was to support it (lmao) and they agreed to overhaul the constitution for that, the process has some insane barriers. Basically the process is:

1) Get a 2/3 majority in both the Congress of Deputies and the Senate. This means, at the absolute minimum, PSOE+PP+UP need to support it.

2) After the reform gets passed with the 2/3 supermajority; a snap election gets immediately called.

3) After the snap election, you need again a 2/3 supermajority in both the Congress and the Senate to finally pass the reform and put it up to a referendum

4) Once the 2/3 supermajority is achieved twice; a referendum needs to be called. If the referendum is successful, the reform is finally approved

This is because the monarchy is part of the "entrenched" clauses of the constitution, for some bizarre reason.


There is an alternative option that goes against the spirit of the constitution but that would be technically legal, since the entrenching clause (article 168.1) is technically not entrenched itself.

Basically it would involve first removing the monarchy from the list of entrenched clauses, then reforming the constitution again to remove the monarchy. The process would be:

1) Get either a 3/5 majority in both houses of the Cortes Generales; or a 2/3 majority in the Congress of Deputies and 50%+1 in the Senate. This is the standard reform procedure, which has already been performed twice (1992 and 2011). Use this to remove the entrenchment clause from the constitution

2) If at least 35 MPs or 27 Senators request it (1/10 of either chamber), there will be a referendum. While this did not happen in 1992 or 2011 as the reforms passed with over 90% support in both chambers, it is almost certain to happen this time. So the referendum would need to happen

3) After the referendum, reform the constitution again to get rid of the monarchy. Same procedure as in point 1 (unless that got changed)

4) Again if 1/10 of either chamber asks for it, a referendum happens

Worth noting you still need PP support for this, so it is not going to happen, especially not in this way.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that while they are not really all that reliable, Electomanía's "surveys" found the exact opposite result, with Republicans winning 55-39 on a hypothetical referendum.

https://electomania.es/epmonarquia2a20/

Though I personally find Electomanía's "surveys" quite a bit sensationalistic and clickbaity.

On the flip side, there is this poll from right wing (and pro-monarchy) La Razón, which found a similar result to that of El Español (Monarchy wins 56-37, with young people being Republicans and old people being monarchists)

https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200726/54ezvv4marbgxdheublbbtledm.html

Honestly, the monarchy is just a divisive issue and Spain is divided almost exactly 50-50. Maybe there is a small advantage for monarchists, but even 40% in opposition to the monarchy is an awful data point, especially compared to other monarchies in Europe.

[Former President tack50]

What is El Mundo drinking?

'Operation Cascais': a mansion for Juan Carlos

The Portuguese plans of King Emeritus and the three key people who prepare him for his final landing after the summer: an old friend, a woman and the President of the Republic.

This story is a bit ludicrous. The Brito e Cunha branch of the Espirito Santo family helping the King I can believe, now Lili Caneças? Really? And Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa meddling in all of this? That would likely be a violation of the role of the President.

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

To be honest despite being the neighbouring country I do not think the Spanish press pays much attention to Portugal (if at all). So no wonder the story is commpletely false

[Former President tack50]

Regarding where King Juan Carlos is located now I will say that tons of possible destinations have been rumoured. Indeed, Portugal is one of them. However, the Dominican Republic and Abu Dhabi have also been discussed as destinations for him.

[Former President tack50]

When France sends its royalty, they are not sending their best. They are not sending you. They're sending people that have a lot of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

[Former President tack50]

For those of us who can't read Spanish, a summary?

Well, that is actually an exaggeration, especially the "Podemos collapses" lol

Anyways, the summary is that the Treasurer and the Campaign Managers from Podemos have been charged with illegally financing the party

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Gürtel case from PP a while back, where the PP tresurer was also accused of illegally financing the party as well. (or if you really care to go back that far, the Filesa case where PSOE was also accused of illegal financing in the late 80s)

In any case, they've just been charged. Now it will take a long while until those charges are actually confirmed or dropped. And if confirmed it will take years until the trial finally ends. So we are here for a long while.

[Former President tack50]

Wow, I didn't know that we had exported the term "caste" in that sense.
The phrase "X is just another member of the caste alongside Y and Z" sounds just SO Italian.

Worth noting that, during their early and meteoric rise (2014-2015), many Spanish political commentators noted the similarities between the Italian M5S and the Spanish Podemos. The early Podemos essencially called the old parties "the caste", claimed to be "neither left nor right; but the people vs those in power" and was very populist

Of course, unlike M5S, eventually Podemos moved into a more generic left wing populist party, but those similarities were there.

(the other main comparison of Podemos at the time was with the Greek Syriza I think)

[Former President tack50]

For what is worth, while Monedero was one of the founders of Podemos and indeed a big figure early on, he was also one of the earliest to get "purged". Indeed he did not even last to Podemos' 2nd election as a party, and resigned all his positions on April of 2015.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo being fired and replaced with Cuca Gamarra also reinforces the turn towards moderation and the center that PP has done since the pandemic started.

Basically it seems PP will be adopting a much less belligerant and much more concilliatory tone. Whether it works or not is a question nobody knows the answer to of course.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo being fired and replaced with Cuca Gamarra also reinforces the turn towards moderation and the center that PP has done since the pandemic started.

Do you really think the PP turned to "moderation" when the pandrmic started? Seriously? Perhaps the harsh attacks during the worst stages, with 800 or 900 dead every day, were product of my imagination. I'll welcome any sign of "moderation" and "common sense", in any case. "United before adversity"

I said during, not at the start. There were several agreements signed by all parties minus Vox not too long ago after all

[Former President tack50]

As always, worth noting Ebola is an extremely hard to transmit virus, while Covid is extremely contagious. You can only get infected with Ebola through direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person. Ebola is also a much deadlier disease as well. Iirc the death rate for Ebola was around 50%, compared to around 2% for covid.

Had Rajoy not brought to Spain that nurse who got infected (I think), there would have been 0 cases whatsoever (though she probably would have died, I don't think Sierra Leone's or Liberia's healthcare systems are all that great)

On hindsight, Rajoy took a gamble that paid off, but Spain could have also ended with a small outbreak and an amount of cases in the low double digits, with around 7-8 deaths or so.

[Former President tack50]

Catalan elections: Cs replaces Lorena Roldán by Carlos Carrizosa as the candidate for the upcoming elections in Catalonia (without specific date as yet)

Carrizosa is currently the Cs spokesman in the Parliament of Catalonia, while Lorena Roldán is the Cs spokeswoman in the Spanish Senate. The reason alleged by Cs is the need for a candidate holding public offices only in Catalonia, as well someone "less identified with the Cs acronym" (astoundingly, Carrizosa is regarded less partisan than Roldán), in order to form a 'constitutionalist' alliance with PP and the PSC. Such alliance is very unlikely, as it's totally rejected by the Catalan socialists and the PP is not very interested (except maybe for joint lists in Girona and Lleida, where the PP has very few chances of winning seats in its own).

 Lorena Roldán was appointed candidate in July 2019, when Inés Arrimadas decided to jump into national politics to second former Cs leader Albert Rivera. I don't now the actual reaasons for this replacement atm

I don't know what they are thinking with that alliance. Why should the PSC agree to it? It's not gonna happen.

Yeah an alliance has a 0% chance of happening. I do think a limited PP+Cs (and only PP+Cs) alliance might work if limited to Girona and Lleida, maybe that means they keep 1 seat in each of the 2.

[Former President tack50]

Oh yeah, I should have mentioned the next CIS poll must not be far away, they tried to poll me a few days ago. Obviously had to decline since I'm not a citizen

I assume they could have still had some questions for you? Obviously none relating to politics but at least some along the lines of "What are the 3 biggest problems Spain faces?"

[Former President tack50]

Today the Spanish government introduced the "Democratic Memory Act", which seems to be basically an expansion of the "Historic Memory Act" passed by the Zapatero government way back in 2005, involving how to deal with the Franco dictatorship; as well as tying in nicely with moving Franco's grave outside of the "Valle de los Caídos".

This bill will then need to be debated and passed by the Congress, but I imagine its passage is extremely likely as I can't see Catalan/Basque nationalists voting against it.

Some of the main points of the new law seem to be:

> The Valle de los Caídos will be reworked into a sort of museum that will honor the dead people during the Civil War in a less partisan way.

> Exhalting the old Francoist regime will be punished by a fine of up to 150 000€.

> The "Francisco Franco National Foundation", as well as any other associations that publicly support the old fascist regime, are outlawed

> All ideological, partisan or religiously motivated court sentences during the Franco era are considered null and void. This includes all sentences given out by the old "Court for the Repression of Freemasonry and Communism" and the "Public Order Court"

> Digging up the common graves of civil war victims will receive public funding, and a national census of victims and DNA will be created to help people identify their relatives killed during the war

> Some nobility titles given out by the Francoist authorities to civil war generals and what not will be removed

> The infamous francoist torturer "Billy El Niño" will have his medals posthumously taken out from him. This was planned to be done while he was still alive but he recently died.

> School curriculums will be updated to account for this historic memory.


https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20200914/franco-congreso-ley-memoria-democratica-preferido-sanchez/520448613_0.html

[Former President tack50]

Glorious news!

Franco's grave had already been moved last year, right?

Will PP / Cs / Vox vote against the bill?

Yes, the Franco's grave was finally moved from Valle de los Caídos on October 24 past year.

Vox will oppose the draft bill in all likelihood, claiming that this is a revenge of the illegitimate social-communist regime. The attitude of PP and Cs with regard the historical memory is usually ranging between indifference, ambivalence and hostility. I expect that both parties abstain, claiming as usual that we don't need to go back on the past. Their spokespersons are already saying that the government throws up a smokescreen as a distraction from more pressing issues. These parties are uncomfortable for different reasons. Vox is the Francoist party (even though they would reject that label) and a radical right-wing split from the PP; the PP is the big party of the Spanish right with roots in the Francoist regime; Cs is a new party with leaders like Albert Rivera and Inés Arrimadas born in the democratic period that don't care about the past.

Worth noting that when the Congress voted to dig up Franco's grave the result was 172 yes, 164 abstain. It was supported by all parties except PP and Cs (which abstained).

Though this was in 2018, before the elections. I personally think Cs will abstain and Vox will vote against. PP is a wildcard, they can either vote against or abstain.

Back in 2007 the "Historic Memory Law" was passed by PSOE, IU, CiU and PNV as well as the minor parties. PP voted against while ERC abstained because it did not go far enough.

CC and PRC might also be a possibility for abstaining but I think they will vote in favour.

[Former President tack50]

CC and PRC might also be a possibility for abstaining but I think they will vote in favour.

Why should they abstain? I find it strange for regionalist parties not to agree with this.

Well, CC is still a centre-right party at the end of the day so while unlikely it is not inconcievable that they abstain. PRC probably votes in favour though I guess.

Also there are some regionalist parties that are almost certain to abstain or vote no: UPN and Foro Asturias, though they both are little more than PP puppets at this point, especially the latter.

[Former President tack50]

CC and PRC might also be a possibility for abstaining but I think they will vote in favour.

Why should they abstain? I find it strange for regionalist parties not to agree with this.

Well, CC is still a centre-right party at the end of the day so while unlikely it is not inconcievable that they abstain. PRC probably votes in favour though I guess.

Also there are some regionalist parties that are almost certain to abstain or vote no: UPN and Foro Asturias, though they both are little more than PP puppets at this point, especially the latter.

Are they (UPN and Foro Asturias) even represented in the Cortes Generales? I have never heard of them.

Yeah UPN has 2 seats as "Navarra Suma". I think Foro Asturias also has 1 seat but I am not completely sure, the party was on the verge of extinction or fully merging into PP lately. (and has a rather big internal divide on whether they should evolve into a centre-right regionalist party or should just merge back into PP)

[Former President tack50]

I actually did once an analysis of which autonomous communities had never had a regionalist party with any sort of regional representation and my answer was actually very surprising. There have been only 2 of them: Castille-La Mancha and Murcia.

Castille-La Mancha gets helped by an absolutely horrible electoral system that harms 3rd parties by a lot.

Murcia has actually had some attempts at regionalist parties, like the "Cartagena Citizens Movement" in 2015 (Cartagena area only though) and the PP splitter party "Somos Región"

However all other regions have had some sort of regionalist party represented at some point.

Madrid of course has Mas Madrid (though it only barely counts). Castille-Leon not only has UPL; but also X Ávila (PP splitter in that province).

Better yet, the "Commoners Land - Castillian Nationalist Party" somehow managed to get 1 seat in the 1999 regional elections. They have always been a fringe party before and since then, so how they got in in 1999 is a mystery to me.

Here is the list of nationalist/regionalist parties with representation, for each region:

Basque Country: PNV (1980-present), EA (1986-2001), HB (1980-2005), EHAK (2005-2009), Bildu (2012-present)

Catalonia: CiU/JxCat (1980-present), ERC (1980-present), PSA (1980-1984), SI (2010-2012), CUP (2012-present)

Galicia: BNG (1981-present), CG (1985-1993)

Andalucia: PA (1982-2008)

Aragon: PAR (1983-present), ChA (1995-present)

Asturias: URAS (1999-2003), PAS (1991-1999), Foro (2011-present)

Balearic Islands: PSM/Mes (1983-present), UM (1983-1991; 1995-2011), PI (2015-present)

Canary Islands: UPC/ICAN (1983-1993), AIC (1987-1993), CC (1993-present), PCN/FNC (1995-1999; 2003-2007) NCa (2011-present)

Cantabria: PRC (1983-present); UPCA (1991-1999)

Castille-La Mancha: Never

Castille-Leon: SI (1987-1991), UPL (1995-present), TC-PNC (1999-2003), X Ávila (2019-present)

Extremadura: ExU (1983-1991; 1995-1999)

Madrid: MM (2019-present)

Murcia: Never

Navarra: UPN (1979-present), HB (1979-2003), Bildu (2011-present), Aralar/NaBai/GBai (2003-present), EA (1987-2007), PNV (1979-1987), CDN (1995-2011)

La Rioja: PR+ (1983-2015)

Valencia: UV (1987-1999); Compromís (2011-present)

[Former President tack50]

I will add that, while Madrid does have the worst numbers and is therefore more deserving of attention, Spanish media (and this goes for both conservative and left leaning media) does have a big problem of being too Madrid-centric in most cases, so Madrid gets an oversized amount of attention.

My theory is that this is caused because 90% of national Spanish media are based off of Madrid; with the only real exceptions I know of being La Vanguardia and El Periódico (both based in Barcelona, and they tend to cater more to a Catalan audience)

But unless Velasco is secretly the head of El Mundo or something, I doubt that he is responsible for that bias

[Former President tack50]

Today the conservative paper La Razón releases a NC Report poll that says the opposite of the DYM poll posted earlier. Ayuso landslide!

PP 45 (33.1%)
PSOE 37 (26.9%)
Cs 18/19 (13.9%)
MM 16 (12.1%)
VOX 11 (8.7%)
UP 7 (5.4%)

The right bloc would get almost 55% of the vote and the controversial Ayuso would be strengthened. If I was her, I'd call a snap election now. The question is wether this poll is accurate or it's just as friendly with Isabel Díaz Ayuso as the CIS is friendly with Pedro Sánche<

Worth noting Madrid is one of the regions of Spain that, even if it calls a snap election, the new parliament's term will be shortened to whenever the current parliament would expire.

So while Ayuso could call a snap election now, she'd still need to face the voters in 2023. Which is kind of pointless imo but whatever.

[Former President tack50]

On some news, the biggest government initiative now seems to be something that should be very relatable to our US posters: Court packing

The Sanchez government is preparing a reform of the current mechanism to name part of the "General Council of the Judiciary", which in turn names the justices of the Supreme Court and a part of the Constitutional court.

Basically up until now, based off a 1985 law, naming those justices requires a 3/5 majority. However PP has deliberately deadlocked the negotiations for 2 years now, so that the Council from the Rajoy era, with its conservative majority, can keep naming conservative justices.

The reform is very simple and will basically reduce the required majority from 3/5 to 50%+1, so PP would not be necessary anymore.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/reforma-poder-judicial_0_1400560520.html

Tbh I might be slightly biased here for once. I do think it is kind of worrying but since PP has repeatedly blocked negotiations I understand that the government has no alternative, even if it has to go with a Poland/Hungary style solution. It worries me a bit but I understand why it is being pursued.

I do wonder if the EU will prosecute Spain (in fact some Polish politician openly asked that lol).

[Former President tack50]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

Well the alternative brought up by the opposition is that instead the judiciary should be depoliticized and the Concil of the Judiciary elected by the judges themselves. The problem is that the judges that would do the election are mostly conservatives appointed under Rajoy and who were up for "retention" now but PP has been blocking their renewal.

Indeed not too unlike McConnell blocking the SC justices on the other side of the pond (thankfully the Spanish judiciary is way less politicized than the American one, but it is still not 100% independent from politics)

The thing is that this reform, if passed, would on paper mean that Spain's judiciary would be appointed in a similar-ish manner to those of Poland or Hungary, so that is why they ask if the EU will prosecute Spain.´

Here is the Polish politician in question. He is apparently the "Undersecretary of State of the Polish department of Foreign Affairs", so a very low level job but his tweet got some coverage on right wing Spanish media:

https://twitter.com/paweljabIonski/status/1316291073279434752

[Former President tack50]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"


https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

[Former President tack50]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

Well, now explain to me how Spain's situation is comparable to that of the United States. The same "progressive judges" are supporting conservative appointments.

"Two progressive members will vote blank to consider that there should be no appointments in this interim situation, while the rest are willing to agree with the conservative majority, who do not have enough votes to place their candidates"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

Oh thankfully our judiciary still has some sense of non-partisanship and fairness, even if it is quickly diminishing in an escalating arms race.

I was drawing the comparison because it is still accurate, even if thankfully our judiciary is way less partisan.