Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

I'm honestly shocked that Podemos was shut out of the Galician Parliament. It's as if half their voters fled straight to the BNG and pollsters didn't notice.

More like all their voters to be precise

[Mike88]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

Ah yes, forgot about that. Yes, that could change the seat. In 2008, in the general election, didn't PP lose a seat after the votes from abroad were counted? I recall something like that.

I'm honestly shocked that Podemos was shut out of the Galician Parliament. It's as if half their voters fled straight to the BNG and pollsters didn't notice.

More like all their voters to be precise

Yeah, it was quite a shock. I had a feeling that BNG would be ahead of PSOE, but the colapse of Podemos was a surprise. Even if you add the votes for the Mareas, they don't make it. Quite astonishing.

[Former President tack50]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

Ah yes, forgot about that. Yes, that could change the seat. In 2008, in the general election, didn't PP lose a seat after the votes from abroad were counted? I recall something like that.

No idea about 2008, but in 2019 after the foreign votes were counted PP narrowly won 1 seat in the Basque Country from Bildu iirc. This meant that the Spanish right got at least 1 Basque MP even if very narrowly

[Former President tack50]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

[Velasco]

EDIT: changed boundary colours

[Velasco]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

Ir's interesting, indeed. Even though a coalition between EH Bildu and PSOE with Elkarrekin Podemos was not going to happen, the possibility of an alterbative and advance of the Basque nationalist left haven't go unnoticed for the PNV.

What happened with that seat in Pomtevedra disputed between PSOE and PP?

[Former President tack50]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

Ir's interesting, indeed. Even though a coalition between EH Bildu and PSOE with Elkarrekin Podemos was not going to happen, the possibility of an alterbative and advance of the Basque nationalist left haven't go unnoticed for the PNV.

What happened with that seat in Pomtevedra disputed between PSOE and PP?

I think the Pontevedra seat ended up with no changes if I am not mistaken

[Mike88]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

Ir's interesting, indeed. Even though a coalition between EH Bildu and PSOE with Elkarrekin Podemos was not going to happen, the possibility of an alterbative and advance of the Basque nationalist left haven't go unnoticed for the PNV.

What happened with that seat in Pomtevedra disputed between PSOE and PP?

I think the Pontevedra seat ended up with no changes if I am not mistaken

Electomania says that the Galicia CERA votes will only be counted next Monday.

[Velasco]

[Former President tack50]

The year is 2020 AD. The Basque Country is entirely occupied by the Nationalists and Socialists. Well, not entirely... One small village of indomitable PP supporters still holds out against the invaders. And life is not easy for the Spanish legionaries who garrison the fortified camps of Navaridas

[CumbrianLefty]

Just the one PSOE enclave as well I think?

[Velasco]

Just the one PSOE enclave as well I think?

Yes, the PSOE came first in Ermua (Bizkaia) getting 26.64% of the vote. The Basque socialists still get more than 20% in some places that used to be strongholds, like the municipalities of the Margen Izquierda next to Bilbao or some industrial towns near to San Sebastián (Donostia). I'll put some examples

Bizkaia: Barakaldo (22.45% , second), Portugalete (24.06%, second), Sestao (20.85%, second)

Gipuzkoa: Eibar (21.66%, third), Errenteria (20.09% , third), Irun (21.85%, second), Lasarte- Oria (25.7%, third)

[Velasco]

The year is 2020 AD. The Basque Country is entirely occupied by the Nationalists and Socialists. Well, not entirely... One small village of indomitable PP supporters still holds out against the invaders. And life is not easy for the Spanish legionaries who garrison the fortified camps of Navaridas

Navaridas is a rather tiny village (200 people), much smaller than the PSE enclave of Ermua (15080 people living in 6 square kilometers). The full results in Navaridas suggest there are enemies living among the legionaries: PP+Cs 32 votes, PNV 30 votes, EH Bildu 9 votes, Vox 5 votes, PSE-EE 4 votes, Elkarrekin Podemos 2 votes and Equo 2 votes. There are a lot of municipalities in the Basque Country with less than 1000 inhabitants and many of them are overwhelmingly nationalist, with PNV and Bildu getting 80% or 90% of the vote together. The municipality of Orexa in Gipuzkoa (121 people) is the main sanctuary of the abertzale left, with Bildu getting 70 votes (94.6%) and the PNV 4 votes (5.4%) with no ballots cast for other parties. Try to imagine you are the single PP or Vox voter in some small village of the Goierri county, besieged like the Last of the Philippines. By the way, the Vox leader Santiago Abascal was born in Bilbao, but his family is from Amurrio (Araba). Basque nationalist parties got more than 75% of the vote in Amurrio (10350 inhabitants) and the Vox result was poor (2.2%, below the province average)

[Skye]

So now the "voto CERA" has been counted in Galicia and indeed, the PP has managed to take a seat away from the PSdeG. New seat distribution:

PP 42
BNG 19
PSdeG 14

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/politica/feijoo-mejor-resultado-escano-42-le-otorga-voto-exterior-pontevedra_1_6115019.html

[Logical]

Is there a reason why late counted votes tend to lean right?

[BigSerg]

Is there a reason why late counted votes tend to lean right?

ZAPATERO

[Former President tack50]

Is there a reason why late counted votes tend to lean right?

ZAPATERO

Lol what?

Anyways there is no particular reason why the Spaniards abroad vote (which is what these late votes are really) tends to lean right to my knowledge.

Ironically common wisdom would expect it to actually lean left (young people leaving Spain and what not) but I suppose turnout among these kinds of people is abysmal.

[Velasco]

Podemos came first among Spaniards abroad (voto CERA) in the 2015 general elections and quite possibly UP did the same in 2016. Since then turnout has dropped to abysmal levels due to the "requested vote" system (voto rogado). However Galicia is different and the PP is traditionally hegemonic among the Galician communities abroad, particularly in Latin America (to a lesser extent, CC dominates the vote of the Canatians abroad in countries like Venezuela). The PP "stole" a seat to the BNG thanks after the CERA vote was counted in another election years ago, during the previous nationalist heyday under Xose Manuel Beiras. The current BNG leader Ana Ponton led her party to an extraordinary performance this year and believes she will be the next premier by 2024

[Former President tack50]

Podemos came first among Spaniards abroad (voto CERA) in the 2015 general elections and quite possibly UP did the same in 2016. Since then turnout has dropped to abysmal levels due to the "requested vote" system (voto rogado). However Galicia is different and the PP is traditionally hegemonic among the Galician communities abroad, particularly in Latin America (to a lesser extent, CC dominates the vote of the Canatians abroad in countries like Venezuela). The PP "stole" a seat to the BNG thanks after the CERA vote was counted in another election years ago, during the previous nationalist heyday under Xose Manuel Beiras. The current BNG leader Ana Ponton led her party to an extraordinary performance this year and believes she will be the next premier by 2024

This is an incredibly great explanation. However it still does not explain PP gaining seats from Bildu in the Basque Country?

I am less confident on Ponton becoming premier in 2024 though. If the left wins she probably will indeed become premier (though 4 years is an incredibly long time; 4 years ago everyone thought PSOE would go the way of PASOK for instance ); but the thing is that I think Feijoo will just rule for a very, very long time. He seems to me like the kind of regional premier that just sticks on for incredibly long no matter what; much like Jordi Pujol or his PP predecessor Manuel Fraga (though Fraga was eventually defeated in 2005).

[Velasco]

This is an incredibly great explanation. However it still does not explain PP gaining seats from Bildu in the Basque Country?

I am less confident on Ponton becoming premier in 2024 though. If the left wins she probably will indeed become premier (though 4 years is an incredibly long time; 4 years ago everyone thought PSOE would go the way of PASOK for instance ); but the thing is that I think Feijoo will just rule for a very, very long time. He seems to me like the kind of regional premier that just sticks on for incredibly long no matter what; much like Jordi Pujol or his PP predecessor Manuel Fraga (though Fraga was eventually defeated in 2005).

I don't know if Basque expats are more right-leaning. In may case the roll of CERA voters is small in the Basque Country, while the roll in Galicia is so large that it turns down considerably the overall turnout percentage. I doubt the PP is remotely close to hegemony among the Basque expats, but it has apparently a higher share and that seat was won by a very narrow margin. I know there is an amount of people whom fled the Basque Country to other parts of Spain during the ETA years, but I know nothing about people abroad and ETA ceased to exist years ago. On the other hand, the Podemos success among young Spanish expats n 2015 is easily understandable: the appeal of the indignados movement to people leaving the country due to the lack of opportunities at home, in the midst of the economic crisis. In what regards the PP hegemony among the Galician expats, there have been always allegations on patronage networks.

Four years is a long time, yes. Feijoo could stay in Galicia for a long time or could try to jump into national politics. According to some rumours, Feijoo was prevented to contest the PP leadership because someone threatened to release a dossier against him featuring some photos with Feijoo in the yatch of a smuggler called Marcial Dorado in the 1990s that are "hard to explain". Just remember that former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes fell definitely from grace when someone decided to leak a video of her stealing beauty creams in a supermarket next to the regional assembly...

[Astatine]

Four years is a long time, yes. Feijoo could stay in Galicia for a long time or could try to jump into national politics. According to some rumours, Feijoo was prevented to contest the PP leadership because someone threatened to release a dossier against him featuring some photos with Feijoo in the yatch of a smuggler called Marcial Dorado in the 1990s that are "hard to explain". Just remember that former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes fell definitely from grace when someone decided to leak a video of her stealing beauty creams in a supermarket next to the regional assembly...

Wasn't this rather the tip of the iceberg of a whole scandal where she was caught having a fake University degree?

[Velasco]

Four years is a long time, yes. Feijoo could stay in Galicia for a long time or could try to jump into national politics. According to some rumours, Feijoo was prevented to contest the PP leadership because someone threatened to release a dossier against him featuring some photos with Feijoo in the yatch of a smuggler called Marcial Dorado in the 1990s that are "hard to explain". Just remember that former Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes fell definitely from grace when someone decided to leak a video of her stealing beauty creams in a supermarket next to the regional assembly...

Wasn't this rather the tip of the iceberg of a whole scandal where she was caught having a fake University degree?

Yes, although the incident was unrelated to her fake master degree (people apparently forgot Pablo Casado has the same problem). Allegedly someone leaked the video because Cifuentes refused to resign and her stubborness was damaging the PP in Madrid. The video was released by the right-wing sensationalist OK Diario, if I remember well

[Velasco]

Is there a reason why late counted votes tend to lean right?

ZAPATERO

Lol what?

Anyways there is no particular reason why the Spaniards abroad vote (which is what these late votes are really) tends to lean right to my knowledge.

Ironically common wisdom would expect it to actually lean left (young people leaving Spain and what not) but I suppose turnout among these kinds of people is abysmal.

ZAPATERO was literally the creator of the exodus of Spaniards, and his support for totalitarian regimes makes him toxic.

Thanks to ZAPATERO, Podemos won among Spaniards abroad in the 2015 and 2016 general elections

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/2790713/0/elecciones-generales-2016-voto-cera-exterior/

and the party of Pedro Sánchez won the CERA vote in 2019

https://www.lainformacion.com/espana/se-confirma-maroto-se-queda-sin-escano-tras-el-recuento-de-votos-del-extranjero/6499009/

CERA voters in Galicia lean to the right, but not in Spain as a whole.

[Velasco]

BNG vote by municipality

[Former President tack50]

Vox has announced today that they will present a no confidence vote on the Sánchez government in September because reasons.

Needless to say, it will not go anywhere and tbh it further devalues the point of no confidence votes (which are supposed to be solemn occasions). Even PP has said they will not support it.

Sánchez may not have a majority, but his government is safe from a no confidence vote as such a vote requires the support from ERC, Bildu or CUP (and that assumes that Vox could somehow get the support of JxCat which is obviously not going to happen)

Anyways this is just a repeat of what we saw in 2017, but from the right this time. Back in 2017 UP presented a no confidence vote and it failed miserably (and even hurt the party's standing a bit)

Which in turn was a repeat of the 1987 no confidence vote from Hernández Mancha (who presented one against the González government, which had an overall majority at the time). And which again hurt AP quite a bit (Hernández Mancha in fact did not even make it to the 1989 election as leader and was replaced by Fraga briefly and later Aznar as party leader of the new unified PP)