Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hollywood]

Ukraine is losing multiple troops for each Russian they kill in the counter-offensive.  Russia is cleaning-up Howitzers, Tanks, and Armored Vehicles.  UFA Troops were ditching their vehicles to advance towards covered positions that were scattered with mines, as their artillery unloaded a barrage of shells and cluster bombs.  The Russians simply left those positions, and shelled the Ukrainians that attempted to hold those very same positions.  In some of the videos below, you can see uncovered dugouts that are surrounded by completely leveled forests.  Their offensive force is starting to unravel as they are constantly attempting to retake positions that has become a graveyard of bodies and vehicles, as Russians fire artillery and drones.  

This first video kind exemplifies the chaos among AFU Troops on the Zaporizhzhia front. One Russian tank destroys 8 armored vehicles, and Ukrainians can't tell from which direction cause they scatter thinking its a mine or artillery strikes.  https://rumble.com/v354w26-details-of-epic-one-on-eight-armored-battle-denazificationmilitaryqperation.html

https://rumble.com/v35edfg--ukraine-russia-war-45th-oabr-destroy-howitzer-and-spgs-with-artillery-clus.html

https://rumble.com/v35eieq--ukraine-russia-war-russia-drones-strike-2-spgs-brave-crews-fight-fires-to-.html

https://rumble.com/v3214fy-russian-soldiers-show-off-graveyard-of-u.s.-bradleys.html

https://rumble.com/v3179xh-another-graveyard-of-nato-vehicles-in-zaporozhye.html

https://rumble.com/v35efts--ukraine-russia-war-russian-ka-52-alligator-destroys-moving-ua-vehicle-guid.html

https://rumble.com/v3328rd-ukrainian-nato-armor-graveyard-at-vremyevsky.html

https://rumble.com/v35eh8c--ukraine-russia-war-russia-lancet-strikes-on-swedish-cv-90-and-dutch-ypr-76.html

https://rumble.com/v3352w9-zaporozhye-front-orekhovskoe-direction-near-rabotino-settlement.html

https://rumble.com/v2ucxj6-disturbing-footage-uncovered-bodies-of-ukrainian-soldiers-expose-harsh-real.html

[Hollywood]

Just came in to see how things are going. Klischiivka, Robotyne, and Andriivka are still standing despite certain users assuring me days ago it "collapsed".

Ukraine just relaunched their assault on Klischivka, and took a small low-land to the North.  I think Andriivka is proving difficult to attack from the West given the small area of space between the town the and Canal.  The Bakhmut Front may be Ukraine's best chance to get a devastating moral victory. 

Robotyne is F-ing bloodbath for the Ukrainians.  Ukrainians are advancing through numerous blasted vehicles and dead comrades.  The forested areas covering Russian dugouts between Robotyne and the Defense Line near Verbove have been cut down by Ukrainian Cluster Bombs that forced the Russians into a tactical retreat, as well as Russia Artillery and drones that easily pounded AFU soldiers unable to conceal themselves.  Many Commentators reviewing the footage from the last few days have taken notice of Ukraine's inability to conceal their artillery, tanks, and infantry in covered positions.

Meanwhile, in the Kupyansk Direction, Russians made a large advance into the fields NE of Syn'kivka.  I don't know if this is a sign that the Ukrainian Defense is loosening-up, but Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine to spread their forces by forcing Ukraine to pull them from other areas.  

[Hollywood]

Republicans are only anti-Ukraine out of contrarianism, if Trump was still president then he would have given Ukraine money. A significant amount of republicans, maybe 30%, are actually for aid but can't visibly share those beliefs out of fear of being cast out or primaried by MAGA.

The same is definitely true for anti-war Democrats who only support aid to Ukraine cause it's part of the party platform.  In the latest Reuters/Ipso Poll, only 52% of Democrats backed arms to Ukraine, and this was down from 61% in May.  CNN found that support fell to 46% among all voters. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-public-support-declines-arming-ukraine-reutersipsos-2023-10-05/

[Hollywood]

I don't think this is controversial, but any new military aid to Israel should be contingent on the new aid package to Ukraine passing.

Absolutely not . Aid to either nation should not be made contingent on aid to the other .

Why not? It forces the Putin simps into a concern and tbh Ukraine needs the help more than Israel

Ukraine almost definitely needs the help more than Israel. If it wasn't for Western help they would have been defeated many months ago, meanwhile Israel is an autonomous ally of sorts, if anything.
Of course it's two distinct types of aid. Ukraine aid is more helping an aspirational vassal, while Israeli aid is more to preserve a relationship that gives Washington ties to one of the stronger military-industrial complexes of the region. But that's not an argument against this. It's simply recognition of how things can get tied together in a well-rounded foreign policy.

Ukraine could really use help from that strong military-industrial complexes, but Israel can't provide support until their security concerns are eliminated.  Israel is able to withstand a neutral Russia and China, but their ability to defend the country will be severely strained if those nations put their weight behind Iran's proxies.  They need the US for supplemental support in order to counter a coalition of this magnitude.  It doesn't matter how many times you criticize Israel, they simply can't make a move on behalf of Ukraine until they have assurances that America will help them with a Russian-backed Iran.  

This is essential for Ukraine given Israel's intelligence and weapons expertise.  Israel was behind numerous American victories during the cold war whether it be capturing Russian technology and Intelligence, or providing advanced military technology to American allies.  Israel can also put pressure on Russian allies (Syria and Iran).  

[Hollywood]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-diplomat-says-zelensky-visit-now-up-in-the-air-after-leak-to-israeli-tv/

"Ukraine diplomat says Zelensky visit now up in the air after leak to Israeli TV"

After Israel told Zelensky not to visit weeks ago it seems there was another plan for Zelensky to visit Israel.  But it seems leaks of his visit will put his visit on hold.

Ukraine needs to stop leaking information to the media.  This has been a huge problem for them.  They get overly zealous about diplomatic announcement.  Israelis don't play that way.  Everything is off the books.  Nothing is repeated.  Security threats are kept to a medium. 

We are now all-in on a Ukrainian victory.  Money and weapons will be sent to them, but we can't have Russia knowing about it.  Feed them s@@t and keep them in the dark.   

Zelensky's parents live in Israel.  We've already granted Zelensky asylum should he be defeated. Let's make sure that doesn't happen.   

[Hollywood]

We are now all-in on a Ukrainian victory.

We're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. All-in on Ukrainian victory is we deploy our troops on the ground. If supporters don't want to do that, okay, but you're not all-in on Ukrainian victory. Otherwise as the WaPo op-ed above makes clear, there's been no Ukrainian progress on taking back their territory the last 18 months outside of the retaking of Kherson.

Like I said, I'm all-in on a Ukraine victory. 

[Hollywood]

Indian made artillery shells used by Ukraine. Most likely sold through a third party arms dealer. So much #multipolarity
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741026617886118100?t=fEd-ZYItIIUbrq3...
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1741407306854662558?t=N8bY1_I3uBPMuus...

The third parties were Israel and the US, which is evident from the military agreements and past covert arms sales between Israel and India.  The UK is also working to covertly supply weapons for Ukraine, but Pakistan is playing both sides.   

Ukraine is welcome to them as we snatched a bunch of their 155mm shells the US had earmarked for them.  A lot of shells are on their way as long as the US can help hit targets in Houthi strongholds on the Yemeni Coast.  The Saudis can only do so much given the political situation. 

[Hollywood]

The unregenerate campist onanism that now makes up the lion's share of this thread for some reason aside, PSOL is probably right that if NATO is serious about cultivating Ukraine as a partner then we probably need to either step up aid again or let them increase the frequency of strikes within Russia.

I do know Ukrainians on the ground who share that sentiment and are frustrated that they feel they have to fight with one hand tied behind their back when it comes to this issue

And many people in NATO countries (including politicians, powerful ones in some cases) complain about Ukraine’s lack of progress and want to use that as justification to stop supporting the country.

The most charitable explanation is that they’re simply uninformed, but that cannot possibly true of those in government espousing this view.

Western timidity and cowardliness is causing Ukraine to not be able to launch a strategically successful counteroffensive, due not enough weaponry sent to Ukraine.  The West should be sending more heavy offensive weapons to help Ukraine win in the long term, instead of encouraging peace talks with a terrorist genocidal regime.

Handing over 17% of Ukrainian territory for a cease fire would be a disaster for the millions of Ukrainian people trapped living under Russian occupation.

Your blaming the entire Western Hemisphere?  How about blame the European Nations that should have been stocking military supplies and energy reserves for the last decade so it didn't fall on the US, UK, Greece, and Poland to shoulder the responsibility when the long-waited Russian invasion finally occurred.  If Ukraine would have had all those weapons from the beginning, they could have actually launched an offensive before Russia built fortifications. 

I honestly can't believe how fast Democrats eroded bipartisan support for Ukraine.  Don't you find it strange that 80% of Republicans, 70% of Independents, and 30% of Democrats oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, but 95% of the posters on the thread think all those people are cowards, traitors or uninformed people. No. Democrats have just pushed these people away with their extremist rhetoric.  Democrats are currently blocking Israel aid by stuffing the Ukrainian funds into the package, which cause further divisions among natural allies, and Republicans retaliated by sticking-in border security.  Good.  Let's play a game of 'chicken' over border security, because that is issue is a higher priority for Americans, and Ukrainian supporters should concede to those demands given that they have no time to waste. 

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

I'm 100% sure they've lost a significant number of their battle-tested troops.  You can't recreate troops with 2-10 years of experience, as well as a extensive periods of military training.  It takes too much time.  Ukraine might even have trouble replacing the numbers they've lost given that the draft age was broadened. 

[Hollywood]

After reading reports and watching battle footage this last month, I think it's evident that the quality of Ukrainian Troops has severely diminished. These guys don't look like the professional army that was kicking Russian butt in 2022.  I'm seeing too many videos of them getting ambushed by enemy troops or artillery fire after getting drawn into counter-offensives.  And just like the Russians at the beginning of the conflict, I see too many vehicles getting stuck in mud traps.  Russia seems to have taken the initiative give the reports across the entire frontline, and now Ukraine is expanding the age range in order to reach the goal of 500,000 new draftees.  The losses in the Summer Offensive must have been catastrophic for the AFU.  Worst part about the offensive is that Ukraine attacked Zaporizhzhia without the necessary quantities of weaponry and ammunition, and then split their forces to assault the Russian positions near Bakhmut. 

IMO, Ukraine has got to be ready for a significant Russian Offensive, considering the massive build-up of 1.3 million Russian Troops.  Whether or not a large Weapons Package arrives, Ukraine needs to hold the Russians back long enough to build fortifications in the event of a full-scale attack.  Russia may be lacking certain weapons in abundance, but they have certainly been able to acquire and produce a massive number of drones (albeit low quality) and artillery shells. 

Do you think the AFU have lost their best, most experienced troops due to the high casualties and have been unable to make up the difference?

I'm 100% sure they've lost a significant number of their battle-tested troops.  You can't recreate troops with 2-10 years of experience, as well as a extensive periods of military training.  It takes too much time.  Ukraine might even have trouble replacing the numbers they've lost given that the draft age was broadened. 

The AFU was a seasoned force in 2022 courtesy of the Russians. So I can see the logic here.
Those soldiers who emerged post-Feb 2022 are getting more experience and are becoming better. But have they enough time to get as seasoned? Likely, not enough. Thankfully Russia is facing similar issues, though it's probably not quite as bad.

There's were lot's of seasoned soldiers that were in AFU brigades since 2014-2019. The Azov Brigade that defended Mariupol comes to mind.  

Russia is dealing with a completely different problem than Ukraine.  There entire strategy this was about defending their fortified line while Ukraine attacked in order to inflict the maximum amount of casualties on Ukraine.  They would use this period to build up their manpower and weapons production.  They have a large invasion force waiting to strike from the North.  

[Hollywood]

For all the complaints that our aid dollars that have gone to Ukraine are being misused, none of have actually been substantiated.  Mind you, this is from a rightwing news source:

Department of Defense has more than 50 criminal investigations into Ukraine aid, but nothing substantiated

This won't stop the Putin simps here on this forum and in the Republican Party more generally from altering their narrative, but at least we in the fact-based world know it is based on nothing, or next to nothing.

We living in the fact-based world think your full of s##t, because we search for facts that you Demtards don't really care to learn about in their fantasy land where Republicans are working with the Russians, and everything is just Putin propaganda when they get caught in a lie. It's a lazy post. 

These investigations haven't been open that long, or taken seriously, given the administration's policy of US their prosecutorial powers to delegitimize the US legal system, constitution, and democracy by prosecuting political enemies in Kangaroo Courts in order to stop people from voting for them in the next election.  The need for serious investigation was substantiated by evidence that the Pentagon had not accounted for over a billion dollars in weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine despite the Biden Admins' claims that safeguards were put into place to account for these weapons. This audit gives weight to the 50 allegations by various individuals that weapons were misappropriated or lost.   The Pentagon had flunked their 6th audit this past November, and they have a history of losing military aid in the ME. The DOD Inspector General isn't being transparent about anything and is merely responding to the audit that an independent watch dog group finished last month. The fact is that Biden/Democrats handled this incorrectly when they lied instead of just admitting that weapons and equipment get lost when they are sent to a conflict zone.  

The US failed to track over a billion worth of weaponry and equipment to Ukraine according to a Pentagon Audit in January, 2024, despite assurances by the Biden Administration.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-pentagon-holds-briefing-as-watchdog-reviews-defense-secretary-austins-hospitalization

According to the newly released and partially redacted report from the Defense Department Inspector General, more than $1 billion of a $1.69 billion worth of weapons, including attack drones, night-vision devices, and Javelin anti-tank missiles, that were sent to Ukraine remain "delinquent."
https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-department-of-defense-lost-track-weapons-ukraine-2024-1

The Department of Defense "did not maintain an accurate inventory" of the weapons designated for "enhanced end-use monitoring" (EEUM) that were delivered to Ukraine and "did not fully comply" with requirements, according to the Inspector General's report.

[Hollywood]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.     

[Hollywood]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.      

Mock executions are war crimes you sociopath

Not sure mock executions are worth mentioning here when they are yet again releasing actual POW execution videos. These discourage surrender; even the cruel would not record and publish them if they were not also stupid.

Thank You.  I don't understand why everything has to be a nasty fight.  Not everything has to be an attack.  In the context of the entire war, what the hell is the point of exaggerating this instance of violent behavior?  There's nothing notable in the video.  The only important part of the video (Group of American Prisoners) is only beneficial to the Russians.  Bet Ukr. supportes are putting it everywhere on the net.  

[Hollywood]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.     

Mock executions are war crimes you sociopath

Go ahead and charge them you moron.  Go ahead and charge the Ukrainians that shot unarmed civilians in the street based on claims that they were 'Russian Collaborators'. We can have Amnesty International investigate both sides, and then you sociopaths can attack that organization when they conclude that both Ukraine and Russia are guilty.  

And you'd understand that this is not a mock execution if you actually watched the video.  They are being held as prisoners, and displayed on camera as propaganda for the Russians.  They weren't going to be killed.  In fact, Russia wanted you guys to post that video cause its their video of American POWs.  

Why are you simping for Russia?

Why are you assuming that I'm simping for Russia.  I'm sharing facts and my opinions.  You guys moronically shared a Ukrainian-doctored video that Russians wanted you guys to share, because there are American POWs. The dumbest part about the post is the concoction of this 'mock execution' narrative.  Don't blame for your erroneous decisions.  I saw the same videos dozens of times, and chose not to post cause it was Russian propaganda in which out country men are being humiliated.  

[Hollywood]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.     

So?

Russia started it. That's the only reason he could shoot Russians in a country that's not Russia.

Okay.  So Russia started it?  We all know Russia started a war with Ukraine.  I'm not defending Russia.  I'm not saying Americans should or shouldn't be in Russia.  Russia is making that point.  They're doing it for a reason.  I'm actually helping you guys.  Stop drawing attention to it, because American POWs are great props in a Russian propaganda video.  Why is this the only forum where Democrats are getting it. lol.  Echo Chamber.

[Hollywood]

Also American mercenaries/foreign legion volunteers aren’t denied the same rights as other soldiers don’t know why Hollywood thinks these guys being Americans means Russians can do a mock execution on them

I don't why you think I said they don't have the same rights.  Red Herring.  I guess it's just impossible for Ukr. supporters to back-off from a stupid argument. 

And do you know how many videos I've seen like this from both sides in the war.  That's war.  And nobody is going to be shocked by Russians roughing up a bunch of soldiers and threatening to kill them in the heat of the moment.  The fact that they were American only helped spread Russian propaganda that 1) Americans are fighting in Ukraine, 2) we defeated them on the battlefield, 3) captured them, and 4) parade them on camera to inspire more enemies of America to help us out.     

[Hollywood]

https://time.com/6695261/ukraine-forever-war-danger/

"Ukraine Can’t Win the War"



Yes, Ukraine cannot win the war in the sense that 1991 or even 2022 borders are no longer possible. But there is every reason to believe they can avoid losing the war.

These thinkpieces show that the press are willing to try to profit from selling doom. If there's not enough evidence for that already.

Huh? All I see is evidence that ignorant neocon and leftists lose their minds when anyone has a different narrative with your own.  It's PBS?  That's a government nonprofit Organization, so your assumption of their motivation is completely wrong.      

[Hollywood]

So how much territory does UA lose around Avdiivka anyway? When Russia stops advancing?

Best case scenario: The Ukrainians somehow manage to form a stable defensive line behind the 'Durna' river (Green line). If the Russians manage to even breach beyond those lines who knows how far they will advance. Day-by-day they are advancing faster than I imagined they would.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1762199969295945870

Unfortunately for them, this small ridge won't be enough to stop the Russians.  Its roads are not well-protected, and there gaps that aren't well-covered or fortified.  To make matters worse, another large force that's been waiting in Donetsk is preparing to take the High Ground North of this area, and they will wrap around from rail line that passes through Ocheretyne in order to flank that small ridge, as well as the next defensive line along Novoprokrovske. The situation is dire for Ukrainians in this part of the front. Meanwhile, Russia is already taking positions in SE Ivanivske, as well as the heights between that town and Chasiv Yar.  Successes in both relatively close sectors would allow Russia to attack behind Ukraine's most powerful stronghold on the Eastern Front - Toretsk- from opposite directions.   

[Hollywood]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July. 

[Hollywood]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/french-president-emmanuel-macron-sending-western-troops-ground-107563148

"French President Emmanuel Macron says sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not 'ruled out' in the future"

It's interesting that he didn't say '"French Troops".  This is not the type of thing I'd advertise to the French People on social media if I wanted Macron to stay in in power after July. 

Whichever country is most willing to contribute troops is probably who will get involved, if this bridge is crossed. Atm that's not entirely clear hence the hedging language.

I know why he's using that language.  Heding language like that is routinely used in election years to trick voters that can mean anything to anyone at anytime while saying just enough to satisfy supporters of the policy and then gaslight them when if you ever decide to F them by failing to follow-through on the policy you meant them to think you promised.  If the either side says you lied, the real extremists and their media can always call you a dangerous extremist or traitor. 

[Hollywood]

The Russian air and ground campaign is having an epic day between Terny and Krasnahorvka.  They've got footholds in Ivanivske, Berdychi, Toneske, and there almost in Khrasonhorivka.  They are currently fighting for a nice slice of Terny, where they are seeing very little Ukrainian resistence East of the Oskill. 

This is the bombing campaign in Chasiv Yar. 
https://twitter.com/MukomaIcho/status/1762489414758932883

[Hollywood]

Pro-Russian sources report continued Russian advances West of Avdiivka.  It seems they will just keep on moving until the Ukrainanas can form a defense line

ISW from yesterday.

Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area. Russian forces temporarily decreased their tempo of operations as they cleared Avdiivka following the Russian seizure of the settlement on February 17, but have since resumed a relatively high tempo of assaults further west and northwest of Avdiivka.[1] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi stated on February 27 that Russian forces have recently increased the size of their assault groups in the Tavriisk direction (Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast) from small squad-sized groups to platoon-sized and even company-sized groups.[2] Russian forces are currently focusing assaults west of Avdiivka in the direction of Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke, where Ukrainian forces established immediate defensive positions to cover their withdrawal from Avdiivka and to receive oncoming Russian offensive operations.[3] Lykhovyi and Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian forces have stabilized their defensive lines along the Tonenke-Orlivka-Berdychi line as of February 27.[4] Ukrainian military observers characterized Ukrainian fortifications west of Avdiivka as “disappointing” and ”problematic,” however.[5] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold defensive positions immediately west of Avdiivka and forecasted that Ukrainian forces will concentrate on a defensive line further west that Ukrainian forces began constructing in November 2023.[6]

Russian forces are likely continuing attempts to advance in order to deprive Ukrainian forces of the respite that would allow Ukraine to establish a more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive line in the immediate vicinity of Avdiivka. The seizure of Avdiivka has allowed Russian forces to press on positions that Ukrainian forces have manned for a shorter period than Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka or further west, and Russian forces are likely sustaining a high operational tempo to try to exploit this tactical opportunity. Russian forces may be able to seize settlements immediately west and northwest of Avdiivka in the coming weeks, but terrain and water features further west of Avdiivka, particularly the body of water that runs between Berdychi-Semenivka-Orlivka, will likely slow the already relatively slow rate of Russian advances in the area. This difficult terrain will likely constrain further Russian tactical gains and allow Ukrainian forces to establish prepared defensive positions that will likely prompt the eventual culmination of the current Russian offensive effort in the area at least until or unless the Russians reinforce their attacking elements.[7]

This force posture does set the Russians up for the feigned retreat trap that the Ukrainians were reportedly adopting (German Army strategy post-1943 on the Eastern Front). But the Ukrainians have to get setup first.

I disagree with the ISW analysis of the terrain.  The thin line of very tiny communities near the stream and lakes doesn't provide for much cover from aerial assaults, which have become terrifyingly more frequent in recent weeks.  There aren't many roads to move supplies or manpower, and nothing but low terrain farmland behind this position.  The ISW is kind of downplaying the speed of the Russian advance into this area, suggesting that Ukraine has time to prepare defensive positions.  The Russians have already entered Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke, and are continuously rotating men between the battlefront and the men resting in recently captured towns in the rear position. In contrast, many UAF troops are getting gassed from these tireless Russian attacks. 

I think a better analysis of the situation would be that Ukraine is holding this line of town to slow the Russian advance, so Ukraine can build a second defensive line from Novoselivka to Novaprokrovske, and prevent Russians from getting around their best defensive positions.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1763336244451217854?s=20

[Hollywood]

Kudos on the UAF preventing the Russians from pushing past the defensives line west of Avdiivka over the past week.  The Russians have found new holes in the Ukrainian defensive lines near Marinka and Pervomaiske.  They’ve almost taken Novomykhailivka, and they’ve established a foothold around Krasnohorivka.   A very serious situation is unfolding. 

Why? ISW reporting a high volume of Russian Aerial Assaults over the past week, but they are unable to confirm the Ukrainian claim in the headline that insinuates the UAF has been shooting down Su-34 aircrafts. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/6/7445166/

Ukraine is also seriously threatened near Ivanivske.  Russia has almost taken the entire town.  This would collapse UAF defense further south in Klishivka and near Andriivka.  Russia would be able to completely focus their attention on Chasiv Yar, which has been getting bombarded by aircrafts and drones.  Ukraine has published videos where they destroy abandoned Russian tanks advancing on Southern Ivanivske.