Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Putin is stronger THAN EVER" is quite a claim.

When newspaper editors have the titles of articles run past them, nuance is often the foremost casualty.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1761079395903562181 ms=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmB...
An A-50 might of been bonked 👀

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1761079395903562181 s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBP...
An A-50 might of been bonked 👀

Incredible video. "Footage uploaded to social media shows the A-50 desperately dumping flares as it tries to evade the incoming missiles - despite the fact these countermeasures are ineffective against the type of long range radar guided missiles likely aimed at the aircraft.":

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1761086281893687500?s=20

[Virginiá]

Russia might have lost a Su-34 in Kherson as well, but no confirmation on that

At this rate, Russia either won't have any A-50s left by the end of the war, or they will pull their remaining planes back from Ukraine for future contingencies.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1761115850495394012

[GeneralMacArthur]

It really is frustrating that we had to go and invent nuclear weapons.  American forces are more than capable of wiping out this backwards, antiquated military dependent on irreplaceable 35-year-old airplanes.  But because Putin has nukes we can't just march into Russia and depose him, we have to do all this Cold War proxy war bulls--t.  If Venezuela acted the way Russia does, it would have been occupied by the United States a long time ago (of course, it would probably protect its ass by finding a nuclear power to back it up, same reason North Korea clings to power).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1761079395903562181 s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpmBP...
An A-50 might of been bonked 👀

Incredible video. "Footage uploaded to social media shows the A-50 desperately dumping flares as it tries to evade the incoming missiles - despite the fact these countermeasures are ineffective against the type of long range radar guided missiles likely aimed at the aircraft.":

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1761086281893687500?s=20

One wonders how many of these things the Russians have.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well they don't have as many now as they did a few days ago, that's for sure.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/pentagon-has-opened-over-50-criminal-probes-on-us-aid-to-ukraine?embedded-checkout=true

"Pentagon Has Opened Over 50 Criminal Probes on US Aid to Ukraine"

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/7e427aa9-68f1-4068-a95d-dac59aa35c29

"EU quartet warns German gas transit costs will fuel need for Russian imports"



Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia have warned that they may be forced to increase imports of Russian gas due to a German tax on supplies from their own storage tanks

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/23/sanctions-treasury-russia-economy/

"With Russian Economy Far From Collapse, U.S. Opts for Tougher Punishment"

 Two years after President Biden spoke of dealing the Russian economy "a crushing blow" following the invasion of Ukraine, Russia this year is expected to grow faster than the United States, Germany, France or the United Kingdom.
Fresh U.S. sanctions announced Friday are unlikely to change that reality, given Russia's resilience amid escalating clashes on the battlefields of global commerce and finance.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/war-in-ukraine-hungary-blocks-joint-eu-statement-on-russia-s-invasion

"Hungary Blocks Joint EU Statement on Russia’s War on Ukraine"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Jeff21461/status/1761356964594852283
Once again Europe stepping up for Ukraine despite the bs pushed domestically

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Day 731 of the 15 day special military operation to deNazify Ukraine. Russia has just won its greatest victory since Mariupol. The front lines have still only moved <10 km in the past year and a half. Maybe by 2059 they’ll be within striking distance of Kyiv again.

Putin remains a brilliant strategist.

[Woody]

Chasov Yar which is West of Bakhmut is likely the next target for the Russian offensive part of a new possibly attempted encirclement

Russians will probably continue pushing from Avdiivka to expand their buffer north of Donetsk City. They want to deny the Ukrainians time to form a stable defensive line near the city. The AFU never got to establish proper fortifications behind Avdiivka, so the best time for the Russians to strike would be now.

Sounds like a solid strategic plan then.

Bump.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1761452014653808890

[Storr]

"Two years of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, 861 ships & 26 million metric tons of cargo have passed through Ukraine’s Black Sea humanitarian corridor. Ukraine continues to feed the world, support its farmers, industries & economy."

https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1761458335419650246?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Two years of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, 861 ships & 26 million metric tons of cargo have passed through Ukraine’s Black Sea humanitarian corridor. Ukraine continues to feed the world, support its farmers, industries & economy."

https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1761458335419650246?s=20

🫡

[Frodo]

For all the complaints that our aid dollars that have gone to Ukraine are being misused, none of have actually been substantiated.  Mind you, this is from a rightwing news source:

Department of Defense has more than 50 criminal investigations into Ukraine aid, but nothing substantiated

This won't stop the Putin simps here on this forum and in the Republican Party more generally from altering their narrative, but at least we in the fact-based world know it is based on nothing, or next to nothing.

[Hollywood]

For all the complaints that our aid dollars that have gone to Ukraine are being misused, none of have actually been substantiated.  Mind you, this is from a rightwing news source:

Department of Defense has more than 50 criminal investigations into Ukraine aid, but nothing substantiated

This won't stop the Putin simps here on this forum and in the Republican Party more generally from altering their narrative, but at least we in the fact-based world know it is based on nothing, or next to nothing.

We living in the fact-based world think your full of s##t, because we search for facts that you Demtards don't really care to learn about in their fantasy land where Republicans are working with the Russians, and everything is just Putin propaganda when they get caught in a lie. It's a lazy post. 

These investigations haven't been open that long, or taken seriously, given the administration's policy of US their prosecutorial powers to delegitimize the US legal system, constitution, and democracy by prosecuting political enemies in Kangaroo Courts in order to stop people from voting for them in the next election.  The need for serious investigation was substantiated by evidence that the Pentagon had not accounted for over a billion dollars in weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine despite the Biden Admins' claims that safeguards were put into place to account for these weapons. This audit gives weight to the 50 allegations by various individuals that weapons were misappropriated or lost.   The Pentagon had flunked their 6th audit this past November, and they have a history of losing military aid in the ME. The DOD Inspector General isn't being transparent about anything and is merely responding to the audit that an independent watch dog group finished last month. The fact is that Biden/Democrats handled this incorrectly when they lied instead of just admitting that weapons and equipment get lost when they are sent to a conflict zone.  

The US failed to track over a billion worth of weaponry and equipment to Ukraine according to a Pentagon Audit in January, 2024, despite assurances by the Biden Administration.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-pentagon-holds-briefing-as-watchdog-reviews-defense-secretary-austins-hospitalization

According to the newly released and partially redacted report from the Defense Department Inspector General, more than $1 billion of a $1.69 billion worth of weapons, including attack drones, night-vision devices, and Javelin anti-tank missiles, that were sent to Ukraine remain "delinquent."
https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-department-of-defense-lost-track-weapons-ukraine-2024-1

The Department of Defense "did not maintain an accurate inventory" of the weapons designated for "enhanced end-use monitoring" (EEUM) that were delivered to Ukraine and "did not fully comply" with requirements, according to the Inspector General's report.

[GoTfan]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%
Feb          -2.1%        +3.4%       +2.1%      +4.1%      +3.0%         +1.1%
Mar          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%      +3.0%         +1.0%
April         -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
May          -2.1%        +3.5%       +2.1%      +4.3%     +3.0%          +1.0%
************************************Adjustments made**************************
Oct           -2.1%        +3.4%       +1.9%      +4.5%     +3.0%          +1.1%
Dec          -2.1%         +3.4%      +1.9%      +4.5%     +3.0%          +1.0%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************


* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

 

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.9%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
Feb          -2.5%       +0.4%        +0.8%       -0.7%      +5.2%        +1.2%
Mar          -1.7%       +0.5%        +1.0%       -0.5%      +5.3%        +1.1%
April         -1.3%       +0.6%        +1.1%       -0.2%      +5.6%        +1.0%
May         -0.6%        +0.6%        +1.1%       +0.1%     +5.6%        +1.0%
June        +0.4%       +0.6%        +1.3%       +0.2%     +5.5%        +1.2%
July         +0.6%       +0.5%        +1.5%       +0.2%     +5.3%        +1.3%
Aug         +0.9%       +0.6%        +1.9%       +0.2%     +5.1%        +1.6%
Sept        +2.0%       +0.6%        +2.0%       +0.4%     +5.1%        +1.8%
Oct          +2.1%       +0.5%        +2.1%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Nov         +2.3%       +0.5%        +2.3%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Dec         +3.0%       +0.5%        +2.4%       +0.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Jan          +3.1%       +0.5%       +2.5%        +0.4%     +5.2%        +2.0%
Feb          +3.6%       +0.5%       +2.5%        +0.3%     +5.2%        +1.9%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Feb       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
Mar       +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%
April      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%         +2.5%
May      +13.8%       +8.4%        +8.0%      +9.1%       +2.0%          +2.5%
****************************   Data pretty much locked in ***********************

Russia and Japan had their formal 2023 GDP number come in.  Russia way outperformed projections while Japan underperformed a bit.  UK's 2023 GDP numbers got a small downgrade.
 
Once you take into account that 2021 UK GDP growth got marked down by 0.6% and 2021 Russia GDP growth got marked up by 0.9% one can then construct a total cumulative 2022-2023 GDP loss based on current consensus/result vs. 2022 Feb consensus as a percentage of 2021 GDP

(change from Jan 2024 calculation)
Russia      -2.5% (+0.5%)
Eurozone  -2.7% (----)
USA         -1.9% (----)
UK           -2.4% (-0.1%)
PRC          -2.1% (----)
Japan       -1.6% (-0.1%)

At this stage, the impact on the economy of Russia is pretty similar to the Eurozone while the other key economic players have a similar impact on each other at a lower level.   Given the GDP PPP of the collective West is around 9 times bigger than Russia, Russia seems to have inflicted around an 8-9 fold economic impact ratio on the collective West.  Quite a successful economic defensive effort.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

[jaichind]

https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/barbatii-ucraineni-cu-varste-intre-18-si-60-de-ani-nu-mai-au-voie-sa-se-apropie-de-frontiera-cu-romania-2699331

"Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 are no longer allowed to approach the border with Romania"

Romania media says that in the Ukraine Chernivtsi region which borders Romania, Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 are no longer allowed to approach the border due to surge of illegal crossings to avoid the draft.

[jaichind]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-proposes-doubling-combat-pay-for-veteran-troops-lawmaker-50394895.html

"Zelenskyy proposes doubling combat pay for veteran troops — lawmaker"

Zelensky wants to double the current pay for  frontline soldiers from 100K UAH per month (7x civilian pay) to 200 UAH per month (14x civilian pay)

[jaichind]

Ukraine MP Alexandra Ustinova says to DW that without aid Ukraine could end up losing Kharkov

https://twitter.com/cvetko35/status/1761708696768233560

[Hollywood]

Ah, the Kremlin shills are out in force tonight

A reminder of who they simp for
https://twitter.com/gwarworin/status/1761663941996945610?s=12

It's too bad you guys doctored the Russian video by taking out the subtitles, because it's pretty ignorant to remove the context form the post.  The soldier they hit is allegedly an American Mercenary that they mocked for coming to Ukraine "to shoot Russians".  I don't really understand why you're crying about captured soldiers that aren't going to be killed.  I'd be happy not to die.