The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo headed to Iowa:

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1369397631953289217

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo not ruling out a 2024 run for prez:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-2024-presidential-run-up-for-fight

When MacCallum pressed Pompeo about a potential presidential bid if former President Donald Trump does not seek office in 2024, Pompeo responded, "it’s way too early to tell.

"I'm very focused here on what we’re doing in the near term. I'm always up for a good fight. I want to make sure the ideas I've been working on for a good part of my adult life are the ones that are advanced here in the United States of America, not those being imposed on the United States by this administration."

Pundits have speculated over Pompeo's national ambitions since leaving his post as the nation's top diplomat. When MacCallum said she wouldn't take his response as a "a no, but not a yes," Pompeo chuckled but did not respond.

[Mr. Morden]

A roundup of early primary state happenings here:

https://foxwilmington.com/politics/pompeo-haley-and-paul-early-moves-spark-2024-speculation/

Mike Pompeo: Just a few days after Pompeo visits Iowa, he’ll give a remote address to a New Hampshire-based virtual fundraiser.

Nikki Haley: Haley’s PAC is making its first endorsement of the 2022 cycle, and it’s an endorsement of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa.

Rand Paul: Paul’s PAC is sending an “anti-election fraud” mailer to GOP voters in New Hampshire that prominently features his name and picture.

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul: Paul’s PAC is sending an “anti-election fraud” mailer to GOP voters in New Hampshire that prominently features his name and picture.

OK, from this story, it sounds like these mailers are going to state legislators rather than voters, and NH is just one of many states it's going to:

https://www.wmur.com/article/pro-rand-paul-pac-sending-election-integrity-mailer-to-every-gop-lawmaker-in-the-us-including-nh/35856318#

A spokesman for the PAC claims the mailer is not about 2024, though it’s up to you to decide whether you believe that or not:

"This project is not about 2022 or 2024, it’s not about one party, or a specific agenda. It’s about insuring the voters have full faith in our election,” Biundo said.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://floridianpress.com/2021/03/trump-considering-potential-2024-presidential-run-if-gop-reclaims-both-house-and-senate-in-2022/

“Based on every poll, they want me to run again but we’re going to take a look and we’ll see,” Trump told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo in a rare wide-ranging interview Tuesday evening. “First steps first, we have to see what we can do with the House.”

People are interpreting the “First steps first, we have to see what we can do with the House” as a sign that he’s ruling out declaring his candidacy until after the midterms.  I guess I can see that, but it seems ambiguous.  Could just be read as the obvious point that the ’22 midterm elections come before the next presidential election, not a hint on the timing of his campaign.

This isn’t to say that I’d count him likely to launch a campaign before the midterms even without this comment.  Just thought I’d mention it.

[Mr. Morden]

The Hill has a story saying that those around Biden claim to be more confident now than months ago that Biden will run again, though it doesn’t seem to be based on very much.  E.g., one “Biden ally” says he assumes that Biden will run again because he hasn’t said otherwise (when that could just mean that he hasn’t decided yet).

The article also notes that it’s still really early, so he doesn’t really need to have decided yet, and that those in Biden's orbit say that, so far, "no one is thinking about a second presidential bid":

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/544622-biden-sees-himself-as-a-two-term-president?rl=1

Now more than ever, those around [Biden] say he’ll make another bid for the presidency. 

“I don’t think there’s any reason to say that he won’t,” said one longtime adviser to the president. 

Another Biden ally added that Biden hasn’t told associates that he wouldn’t be running again.

“So we all assume that he is,” the ally said, “contrary to this sentiment that he’ll be a one-term president because of his own volition.”
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It’s two years until the start of primary season, and those close to the campaigner in chief stress that no one is thinking about a second presidential bid. 

“He hasn’t even fully staffed up the White House yet,” the adviser said. “There’s a lot to do before he even reaches the point where he has to make a final decision.”

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo headed to Iowa:

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1369397631953289217

Apparently, C-Span will cover this trip in the inaugural installment of its "Road to the White House 2024" series:

https://www.axios.com/cspan-2024-election-pompeo-ca954684-6ec8-463d-90d6-dbc9801f6c0e.html

[Mr. Morden]

Gaetz headed to New Hampshire:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gaetz-to-new-hampshire-to-help-raise-money-for-fellow-republicans

Multiple Republican sources in the Granite State told Fox News on Wednesday that the three-term representative and close ally of former President Trump will headline the Nashua Republican City Committee’s annual "Steak Out" fundraiser.

[Mr. Morden]

This quote was mentioned in a Politico story I read today, but looks like John Thune made this comment about a future presidential race last summer:

https://upolitics.com/news/mitch-mcconnell-plans-to-remain-gop-leader-regardless-of-election-results/

“When I look at the presidential race, timing is everything in politics. At the moment, that’s not something I aspire to,” Thune said.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott will be Davenport, Iowa on April 15th:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/22/2024-election-trump-477353

The story also mentions this:

One Republican strategist in South Carolina said advisers to and associates of Pompeo, DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida have all placed calls into the state recently to discuss the landscape there.

[Mr. Morden]

This story has a rundown of the potential 2024 candidate visits to Iowa, and I think we’ve already mentioned all of them in this thread except for this hypothetical one:

https://americanindependent.com/gop-2024-presidential-election-iowa-donald-trump-pompeo-cotton-scott/

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, who has met virtually with Republicans in the leadoff primary state New Hampshire, is also making plans to visit Iowa in the coming months, advisers said.

[Mr. Morden]

I think I missed this at the time, but here’s a Trump Jr. comment from last month on whether he’d ever run for office:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jr-no-intention-running-now-1568605

Appearing on Newsmax last night, former President Donald Trump's eldest son said "we'll see" when his father's ex-press secretary Sean Spicer asked if he would be appearing on a ballot anytime soon.

Trump Jr. also said that he believed he could achieve more by not running for office, at least in the short term, so he could focus his attention on the Republican Party and the "weaklings" in the party who voted for his father's second impeachment.

Speaking to the conservative channel, Trump Jr. said: "Honestly, I think I can do a lot more not necessarily running. So I have no intention of running right now.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo on 2024:

https://www.wmur.com/article/pompeo-plans-visit-to-new-hampshire-increasing-presidential-speculation/35953574

In an interview with "CloseUP," Pompeo was asked whether he has plans for 2024.

"I'm pretty focused on 2022," he said. "We'll see what happens after that."

[Mr. Morden]

Gaetz headed to New Hampshire:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gaetz-to-new-hampshire-to-help-raise-money-for-fellow-republicans

Multiple Republican sources in the Granite State told Fox News on Wednesday that the three-term representative and close ally of former President Trump will headline the Nashua Republican City Committee’s annual "Steak Out" fundraiser.

Again, not sure if Gaetz is really toying with a 2024 presidential run or not....he seems unlikely to run if Trump does, but maybe also unlikely to run if DeSantis does, given his hyping of DeSantis.  But he is nonetheless planning this NH trip, and it looks like he's also considering a departure from Congress in order to work for Newsmax:

https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has privately told confidants he's seriously considering not seeking re-election and possibly leaving Congress early for a job at Newsmax, three sources with direct knowledge of the talks tell Axios.

Not sure if leaving Congress means he's more or less likely to run for president.  Presumably *less* likely to run for president in 2024, since he wouldn't have much time in the new job before a presidential campaign.  But a media job could increase his profile, and set him up better for a future run, in 2028 or later.

[Mr. Morden]

Gaetz headed to New Hampshire:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gaetz-to-new-hampshire-to-help-raise-money-for-fellow-republicans

Multiple Republican sources in the Granite State told Fox News on Wednesday that the three-term representative and close ally of former President Trump will headline the Nashua Republican City Committee’s annual "Steak Out" fundraiser.

Again, not sure if Gaetz is really toying with a 2024 presidential run or not....he seems unlikely to run if Trump does, but maybe also unlikely to run if DeSantis does, given his hyping of DeSantis.  But he is nonetheless planning this NH trip, and it looks like he's also considering a departure from Congress in order to work for Newsmax:

https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has privately told confidants he's seriously considering not seeking re-election and possibly leaving Congress early for a job at Newsmax, three sources with direct knowledge of the talks tell Axios.

Not sure if leaving Congress means he's more or less likely to run for president.  Presumably *less* likely to run for president in 2024, since he wouldn't have much time in the new job before a presidential campaign.  But a media job could increase his profile, and set him up better for a future run, in 2028 or later.

Well, there's also this issue now:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/breaking-news/os-ne-joel-greenberg-matt-gaetz-investigation-sex-trafficking-20210330-moyyt73tbzhrlmpjcwkqv2oeyq-story.html

[Mr. Morden]

Donald Trump was interviewed on his daughter-in-law’s podcast, and 2024 came up:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-says-there-hope-2024-run-1580058

"The other question people all want to know—and I know you're not ready to answer it yet—but do we have hope that there's a possibility to see Donald Trump run again in 2024?" Lara Trump asked.

"You do have hope, that I can tell you," Trump said. "You do have hope. We love our country—this country. We all owe a lot to our country but now we have to help our country."
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Earlier in the interview, the former president was asked about the possibility of rallies. His public rallies were popular among his supporters but were curtailed in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Will we ever be able to attend another Trump rally?" Lara Trump asked.

"Oh yeah, sure, I think so," Donald Trump said. "In fact, we're thinking about doing one relatively soon just to let everybody know that there's hope in the future."

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1379873741455437828

[Mr. Morden]

More Pence news:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pence-2024-presidential-bid-conservative-group-trump-policies/

The former vice president has mostly kept out of public view since Inauguration Day, focusing mostly on some early work with conservative organizations and the arrival of a new grandchild. But on Wednesday, he launched Advancing American Freedom, an entity, he said in a statement, that would "promote the pro-freedom policies of the last four years that created unprecedented prosperity at home and restored respect for America abroad." 

The new group will enable Pence to maintain his political profile and serve as his vehicle to help defend Trump-era policies. A senior aide said the former vice president is likely to focus especially on the Biden administration's evolving immigration and border security policies and the current president's proposal to raise corporate tax rates to pay for a multi-trillion dollar infrastructure plan.
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Pence's new group comes with the blessing of Trump, who in a brief statement to the Washington Examiner on Wednesday called his first term "the most successful" in American history, adding: "Nice to see Mike highlighting some of our many achievements!"

Pence's group is backed by a who's who of Trump-era players and other conservative leaders. It will be led by Paul Teller, a former aide to Cruz and co-chaired by longtime Pence aides Marty Obst and Marc Short and Chip Saltsman, a South Carolina-based former aide to former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and Mike Huckabee's presidential campaigns.

[Mr. Morden]

Several 2024ers will be at this event:

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1379870082755653632

[Mr. Morden]

Ernst:

https://www.thegazette.com/federal-government/joni-ernst-says-zero-chance-she-will-run-for-president-in-2024/

During a stop in Bettendorf, Ernst said there was "zero" chance she would seek the Republican presidential nomination.

Meanwhile, Pompeo’s been hired by Fox News:

https://www.rawstory.com/fox-news-mike-pompeo/

Fox News has just hired yet another Trump administration official, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as a paid, on-air contributor. Fox News recently also hired former Trump White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany and former Trump National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow. The conservative cable channel also recently hired Trump campaign official Lara Trump, the former president's daughter-in-law.

"Pompeo will make his first appearance on Fox & Friends on Friday, the network said," Deadline reports. "He'll contribute across all Fox News Media platforms."

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott was in Iowa on Thursday, and dodged the question about whether he would run for president:

https://qctimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/potential-2024-presidential-hopeful-tim-scott-talks-racism-police-reform-in-davenport/article_79aa9824-dfe5-5989-aeab-5441bb3c94fd.html

Scott on Thursday said he is focused on his reelection next year.

"(A)ny conversation that goes beyond, frankly, my primary in June is irrelevant," Scott said.

Pompeo says he’s not ruling out a run for president and also won’t rule out running even if Trump runs as well:

https://www.theblaze.com/news/mike-pompeo-doesnt-rule-out-2024-white-house-bid-even-if-trump-runs

During an interview with Fox Business' "WSJ at Large," host Gerard Baker asked Pompeo, "Are you seriously pondering a run in 2024 for the Republican nomination?"

"Just like every day, I'm going to go work for the set of policies that I've been working on all my life, including these last four years as CIA director and then secretary of state," Pompeo replied.
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Pompeo went on to say, "What happens electorally in '22 matters an awful lot. I'm going to go work to help good conservative candidates be elected, and then we'll consider whether 2024 is an opportunity for me to go back to elected office or not. I love the fight, Gerry."

Baker then asked, "If President Trump runs again — and all indications are that he may — would you run against him?"

"That's a long way off," Pompeo responded, "I don't think any of us have figured out what we're doing 2024." But the former secretary of state left the possibility open, adding, "We'll make make those decisions another time."

And finally, this Politico story says that DeSantis’s “agressive courtship” of national donors bears similarities to Bush’s strategy in 1998:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/16/desantis-trump-gop-donors-481891

But DeSantis’ aggressive courtship of national givers bears striking similarities to the approach then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush used in his 1998 reelection race, which preceded his presidential bid two years later. Bush spent the 1998 campaign traveling the country and introducing himself to the Republican Party’s biggest donors, many of whom contributed to his reelection effort and later became key to his 2000 national campaign.

As he embarks on his fundraising blitz, DeSantis has begun building a team with national experience. He has tapped veteran Republican strategist Phil Cox to help oversee his 2022 campaign. Cox, who has developed deep ties to the donor class through his past leadership of the Republican Governors Association, accompanied the governor to last week’s retreats.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris will be visiting NH later this week:

https://www.wmur.com/article/vp-kamala-harris-planning-to-visit-nh-on-friday/36155970

Vice President Kamala Harris is planning to visit New Hampshire in person later this week, with one or more stops in the Laconia-Plymouth area likely, several sources confirmed to WMUR on Sunday.

For Harris, it would be her first visit to the Granite State since September 2019, when she appeared as a presidential candidate to address the New Hampshire Democratic Party state convention at the SNHU arena in Manchester – along with other candidates who were seeking the presidential nomination.

The precise locations and events featuring the vice president on Friday have yet to be finalized and announced.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden is a 2T Prez.

Do you mean 2 term or $2 trillion?

[Mr. Morden]

Hannity asked Trump about 2024:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-claims-beyond-seriously-thinking-055431723.html

“Are you running again in 2024?” Hannity asked. “What are the odds?” “First of all, it’s a long time,” Trump replied. “The odds, the odds. What are the odds?” Then, after a brief tangent, Trump added, “I say this: I am looking at it very seriously, beyond seriously. From a legal standpoint, I don’t want to really talk about it yet. It’s a little too soon.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/chris-christie-2024-presidential-election-4eac5391-8239-4a92-93e1-4f0fb5b367ab.html

In terms of specific things that Christie has reportedly told those in his orbit according to that story, there's this:

Christie, whose 2016 bid for the nomination was short-lived, has told friends that he'd be the only person in the 2024 field with executive experience who has run a presidential race before.

I guess that's likely to be true, as long as Trump himself doesn't run again.  (Though there's always the possibility of Jeb Bush or Jim Gilmore redux.)

But then, regarding Trump:

Christie has told associates that Trump's decision about running again in 2024 won't affect his own decision-making.