The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz:

https://news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-says-wait-see-121704411.html

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz says he will "wait and see" what former President Donald Trump does before deciding on whether to run for president again in 2024.

Speaking to Fox News at a Conservative Political Action Conference event in Dallas, Texas, on Friday, Cruz said Trump is going to "decide on his own timeframe" whether he will seek the presidency for the third time.

Cruz, who launched a failed bid in 2016, suggested he'd hold off until Trump announced his plans. "Everyone is going to wait and see what Donald Trump decides and make decisions from there," he said.

When asked about his timeframe for deciding whether he'll put his name in the running for the Republican nominee, Cruz said his focus is now on the 2022 mid-terms.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-rally-promises-white-house-return-2022-7

At a Wisconsin rally on Friday night, former President Donald Trump made a series of what appeared to resemble campaign promises  — he also vowed that to return to the White House.

"We are going to take back our magnificent White House, we're going to take it back," he said to cheers.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley’s started using the phrase “sometimes it takes a woman”, which seems like it’s meant to make people think she should be president, since most of the other potential GOP candidates are men:

https://www.newsweek.com/nikki-haley-gives-strongest-hint-yet-2024-run-trump-woes-mount-1731615

"We've got enemies trying to come after us and America has been naïve, it's been weak and it's been asleep at the wheel," [Haley] continued. "I'm just saying, sometimes it takes a woman. And [former British Prime Minister] Margaret Thatcher said, 'If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.'"

Meanwhile, here’s the latest on Trump:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/politics/trump-2024-bid/index.html

Trump has received a fresh wave of encouragement to jump start his next presidential campaign in the 24 hours since his primary residence became the target of an FBI search warrant, several sources familiar with the matter told CNN. The former President, who is widely expected to run again, had previously eyed Labor Day as his target launch date, but is now being advised to accelerate his timeline to capitalize on what Republicans have described as extraordinary overreach and political persecution by Justice Department officials, including by advisers who previously counseled him to take his time with a 2024 announcement.
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The thinking inside Trump's orbit and among some of his top allies on Capitol Hill has undergone a notable shift since the search was executed at his waterfront estate, said three well-placed sources. Advisers who initially worried Trump would steal the spotlight from vulnerable Democrats if he announced before November have largely abandoned those concerns, while those who fear the FBI search was prompted by compelling evidence against Trump -- and he thus shouldn't rush into another presidential campaign -- become a minority in his orbit. The former President, who previously told aides he was concerned about not being able to tap into the $121 million war chest he's amassed once he declares his candidacy, is now shrugging off those concerns in the last 12 hours, according to a person close to him.
      
"Where others see criminal jeopardy, Donald Trump sees dollar signs," said one person close to the former President.

"Most of the downsides of announcing early are regulatory or financial but the Democrats just guaranteed that Trump will raise three times the money he was going to and probably in the immediate future," Caputo added.

[Mr. Morden]

Suarez:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article264395081.html

A political group tied to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is buying social media ads in key presidential primary states, fueling speculation that the Republican may be mulling a White House bid.

Agenda for America has purchased digital ads on Facebook in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, among other states, according to advertising information on Meta’s website. Suarez disclosed in paperwork filed with the Miami city clerk in April that he was raising money for the group, which he listed as a 501c4 social welfare organization.
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Suarez, a 44-year-old attorney and principal at a private equity firm, has at times received national attention as a potential rising star in national Republican politics. He has never dismissed a potential bid for higher office, though he is rarely, if ever, included in conversations about serious Republican 2024 contenders.

[Mr. Morden]

At about the 7:25 mark in this video:

Judy Woodruff asks Tim Scott about whether he’s considering running for president, and Scott deflects by talking about being focused on his reelection.  The final exchange ends like this:

Woodruff: But it’s something that you’re open to in the future? [running for president]

Scott: You never know what’s going to happen, but I certainly am open to being reelected.

[Mr. Morden]

At least some in Biden’s orbit want him launch his ’24 campaign earlier than normal:

https://sports.yahoo.com/biden-advisers-push-early-launch-113623205.html

People involved in planning the president's campaign told Reuters that an early announcement would be a smart step for Biden, sending a signal to political donors, potential rivals inside and outside the party, as well as the general public that Biden is no lame duck and that Democrats are unified behind his agenda, personality and leadership.
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Biden is having meetings with his political advisers, a source familiar with the president's thinking said, and in those meetings he keeps stressing that the attention right now needs to be on the midterms, rather than the timing of any presidential campaign.

"There is no planned date or timeframe. As the president has said before, he fully expects to run for reelection," that source said.

Meanwhile, one of Trump’s lawyers is telling him that Trump’s legal problems would go away if he announces that he’s not going to run for president again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-lawyer-says-shes-told-192804167.html

"If he's not leading in the polls – I've sat across from him, every time he gets frustrated, I say to him: 'Mr. President, if you would like me to resolve all your litigation, you should announce that you are not running for office, and all of this will stop,'" Trump attorney Alina Habba said on Real America's Voice on Friday. "That's what they want."

[Mr. Morden]

Larry Hogan asked about a presidential run while in Iowa:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/08/11/maryland-governor-larry-hogan-flips-pork-chops-iowa-state-fair-talks-2024-prospects-gop-donald-trump/10298565002/

Hogan, a Republican who was elected twice to lead the blue state of Maryland, has been answering questions about whether he will run for president since he visited Iowa in 2019 as vice chair of the National Governor's Association. 

"I was surprised that you were asking me that way back then, but now more people seem to be," he said in an interview with the Des Moines Register. "I've said that I really am focused on finishing out my term as governor until next January. But you know, I care about country and I care about our party and I definitely want to be a voice and I want to play some role in the future. Exactly what that is, I'm not quite sure."

Chris Christie was also in Iowa this past week:

https://kiwaradio.com/local-news/christie-returns-to-iowa-mulling-2024-presidential-run/

[Mr. Morden]

Cheney to form new organization:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/cheney-launch-anti-trump-organization-after-defeat-00052344

“In coming weeks, Liz will be launching an organization to educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for president,” Cheney spokesperson Jeremy Adler told Playbook exclusively.

The new group, which will serve as Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) primary political vehicle as she considers whether to run for president in 2024, does not have an official name yet. An informed guess: The Great Task, which was the name of Cheney’s final ad of the campaign. The phrase is from the last sentence of the Gettysburg Address, and Cheney also referenced it in her concession speech from Jackson, Wyo., on Tuesday night.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/ted-cruz-appeals-grassroots-conservatives-gop-insiders-2024

The senator is adding communications advisers, focusing on his podcast, Verdict, and, of course, publishing a book in September, the surest sign a presidential bid is under consideration. Under Texas law, Cruz can run for president and Senate simultaneously, meaning he would not be forced to choose between the two. “If Trump doesn’t run, he’s putting himself into position to be a serious 2024 player,” a Republican supporter said.

Romney:

https://kslnewsradio.com/1973740/sen-romney-touts-safety-of-utah-elections-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2024/

As for the presidency? Romney was asked about it afterward.

“No I’m not running,” Romney said.

He joked that he’s done it a couple of times before, saying “and I think two times is enough.”

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar was asked about whether she’d consider running in 2024:

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/sen-amy-klobuchar-presidential-run-2024/

"President Biden has said that he's running again and I take him at his word," Klobuchar said. "I love my job representing Minnesota in the U.S. Senate, and I think you see why with what we've been able to do the last few months. And it is great to be home getting out talking to people, getting their idea, bringing them back and, yes, going to the State Fair."

So, similar to the non-denials that Warren has given: On the surface, it sounds like it’s a denial.  Except it’s all couched in the context of “Well, Biden is presumably going to run again, so why are you asking me this?”….which dodges the question of whether she would rule it out in a scenario where Biden doesn’t run.

Meanwhile, here’s Youngkin’s latest non-denial:

https://wjla.com/news/local/governor-glenn-youngkin-virginia-2024-presidential-bid-republican-gubernatorial-candidates-gop-michigan-campaign-tudor-dixon-gretchen-whitmer-term-economy-parental-rights-education-critical-race-theory-crt-george-washington

"Are you running for president in 2024?" 7News Reporter Nick Minock asked Youngkin on Saturday during Youngkin's visit to Fairfax County.

Youngkin: “I am so excited to be supporting Republican gubernatorial candidates across the country," said Youngkin. "Michigan is going to be a great stop. We're also supporting candidates across Virginia. We are going to take back congressional seats in Virginia. Nick, my focus is on 2022. Top priority is to make Virginia the best state to live work and raise a family. 2024 is a long way off. Right now. I am focused on delivering on promises made last year that have been kept. We've got a giant agenda for the rest of this year and into next year. And 2024 will happen when 2024 gets here.”

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo, in South Carolina, is asked about 2024:

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article264759684.html

“We’re going to make our decision based on if we think this is the right place for us to serve,” Pompeo said. “If I come to believe I ought to become president, that I have something to offer the American people, I will run no matter who all decides to get in and who else decides not to get in the race.”
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“There’s big plans for me to make sure we have a really great election this November and then we will see what the good Lord brings after that,” Pompeo said. “My wife and I are thinking, praying and trying to figure out where to serve next. It could be that we’ll decide to enter the presidential race. It may not, but we’re going to stay in this fight.”

Meanwhile, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez also isn’t ruling out a presidential run:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/miami-mayor-president-suarez-explores-presidential-run-citing-city-new-american-dream

"Look, it's a long way aways," Suarez admitted to FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo. "Right now, I'm excited to preside over the presidency of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, and try to convince other mayors across America that the Miami model works, that they need to adopt it so that they can create prosperity in their cities."

"If that continues to work, and if Miami continues to be successful," the mayor added, "then I think there's going to be tremendous amount of options available for me politically if I decide that I want to continue to serve."

Responding to whether or not the Republican mayor has started planning for a presidential campaign, Suarez explained he's currently focused on delivering "due diligence" as Miami's mayor.

[Mr. Morden]

Newsom:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gavin-newsom-says-2024-presidential-bid-is-not-gonna-happen-11661538913

Newsom was touting California’s latest plan to ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035 during an “ABC News” interview on Thursday night. And he shut down rumors — again — that he may run for president in 2024 by flatly saying it’s “not gonna happen.”

He also gestured to his casual on-camera outfit, which included a baseball cap, adding, “You think this looks like someone running for anything?”

Newsom had told the San Francisco Chronicle in May that chances of him running for president in 2024 are “subzero.” And he doubled-down on that sentiment on Thursday, adding, “No. I said ‘subzero,’ I’ve been doing it in foreign languages … I don’t know how many times I have to say it.”

[Mr. Morden]

The Biden/Harris ticket has filed with the FEC, which should put an end to any speculation on the Democratic side.

Ummm…no.  The media is reporting that this is an update they just made on his 2020 campaign committee:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-2024-campaign-b2155840.html

A 30 August form filed with the Federal Election Commission by Joe Biden’s campaign committee is not a sign that an announcement of a re-election bid is imminent, a Democratic National Committee official has said.

On Tuesday, Mr Biden’s 2020 committee, “Biden for President,” filed an updated “Statement of Organization” with the FEC.

But the Democratic official told The Independent the filing was routine.

“This is not a re-election filing. This is just updating the form to change the treasurer name because the former treasurer is taking a government job,” the official said.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo to NH:

https://news.yahoo.com/pompeo-visit-hampshire-amid-2024-131451457.html

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit New Hampshire next month amid speculation over a potential 2024 presidential bid.

Pompeo on Sept. 20 will appear at the “Politics & Eggs” speaking series, a mainstay of the campaign trail for presidential hopefuls looking to build their profiles in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

Meanwhile, Tim Scott was in Iowa on Sunday:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/08/29/potential-2024-presidential-candidate-tim-scott-iowa-ashley-hinson-fundraiser/7926567001/

Midway through his speech, a member of the audience shouted, “Tim Scott for president!”

“Of my homeowners’ association, yes!” Scott replied. He made the same deflection in June at an event in Cedar Rapids. Scott also downplayed the possibility to reporters after the event, noting that he's been in the state several times over the years to help his fellow Republicans campaign.  

"Thank God I continue to be invited," he said. 
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Scott’s visit Sunday marked his fifth public trip to Iowa since 2019 — and it’s his second in the last three months.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s timeline:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics/trump-delaying-2024-decision/index.html

Donald Trump is considering waiting until after the November midterms to launch a third presidential campaign as he navigates a widening array of legal troubles and mounting concerns that some of his hand-picked Senate candidates may be weaker than he once thought, sources familiar with his thinking tell CNN.

After months of eyeing Labor Day weekend as the target launch date for a 2024 campaign, Trump has spent the past few weeks backing away from that timeline following the FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago estate and an increased panic among Republicans that the party may not be in for the red wave it has long anticipated this November.

While his timeline could shift again between now and November, the onslaught of political and legal concerns has the former President feeling nervous about prematurely diving into the 2024 primary, according to nine former and current Trump aides and allies who requested anonymity to discuss internal matters.

[Mr. Morden]

Phil Murphy says he supports Biden’s re-nomination assuming that Biden runs again, but doesn’t address the question of whether he’ll run for president should Biden not run:

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-phil-murphy-coy-presidential-ambitions-20220904-m7rshcjwa5e6hmdxziqseaqzge-story.html

“He says he’s running; I take him at his word,” said Murphy, 65. “Assuming he does run, he’ll have no bigger backer than yours truly.”

Murphy’s confidants are privately mulling a possible presidential run by Murphy, NJ.com reported last month, amid widespread speculation the 79-year-old incumbent won’t seek a second term.

The term-limited Murphy said Sunday he hasn’t met with potential campaign donors and that the Garden State is his priority.

Oh, and this is from more than a week ago, but it looks like it hasn’t been posted here….Cheney said that it’s not a given that if she runs for president, that it would be done as a Republican:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/08/21/liz-cheney-interview-2024-election-deniers/7859643001/

Would [Cheney] run as a Republican? That may not be automatic.

"I haven't made any specific decisions or plans about that at this point," she told ABC News, when asked whether she would run under the GOP banner.

She would not speculate further on whether she'd campaign as an independent.
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"Look, you run for president because you believe you would be the best – the best candidate, because you believe you'd be the best president of the United States," she said. "And so, any decision that I make about doing something that significant and that serious would be with the intention of winning and because I think I would be the best candidate."

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3631601-hillary-clinton-says-she-will-never-run-for-president-again/

Former secretary of State and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton on Tuesday said she will not run for president again.

“No, no,” Clinton said when asked by “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell if she would ever run for president again.

“But I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that we have a president who respects our democracy and the rule of law and upholds our institutions,” Clinton continued.

Here's the video:

[Mr. Morden]

In this interview with GQ, Ocasio-Cortez talks about how she’s skeptical that she could be elected president, in part because “So many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color.”

https://www.gq.com/story/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-october-cover-profile

Over the course of our conversations, the congresswoman typically answered in a confident, fast-paced patter—each sentence closely chasing the tail of the last. But now her speech slowed to a crawl and, for the first time in the hours we had spent speaking, she broke eye contact, burying her gaze in the arm of her chair. Tears pooled in the corners of her eyes.

“I hold two contradictory things [in mind] at the same time. One is just the relentless belief that anything is possible,” she said. “But at the same time, my experience here has given me a front-row seat to how deeply and unconsciously, as well as consciously, so many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color. People ask me questions about the future. And realistically, I can’t even tell you if I’m going to be alive in September. And that weighs very heavily on me. And it’s not just the right wing. Misogyny transcends political ideology: left, right, center. This grip of patriarchy affects all of us, not just women; men, as I mentioned before, but also, ideologically, there’s an extraordinary lack of self-awareness in so many places. And so those are two very conflicting things. I admit to sometimes believing that I live in a country that would never let that happen.”

There would be other impediments—obstacles about which Ocasio-Cortez is practical, if not exactly optimistic. “Could Obama have gotten elected without the kind of financial support that he had?” she asked, noting that her opposition to Wall Street would be a major hurdle to any further rise. “I don’t know.” Even were she theoretically to become president, then what? She’d face a system—from the Senate to the Supreme Court—both empowered and inclined to thwart her most sweeping ambitions. “There are still plenty of limitations,” she said, playing out the hypothetical. “It’s tough, it’s really tough.”

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz was in NH earlier this week:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/ted-cruz-2024-bid-waits-trump

Cruz, the runner-up for the GOP nod in 2016 (the last time the party did not field an incumbent), conceded he has not ruled out mounting a second campaign — even if former President Donald Trump enters the race.
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But the senator also confirmed in a brief interview with the Washington Examiner Thursday evening he will make no decision about 2024 until he knows Trump’s plans. Any Republican mulling a White House bid who says otherwise (and at the very least, that includes former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo) is, Cruz insists, being dishonest about his or her internal deliberations.

“There are a lot of candidates out there feeling their oats and boasting, ‘I’m running no matter what. I don’t care what Donald Trump says.’ Anyone who says that is lying. That’s an idiotic statement for someone to make who’s actually thinking about running,” Cruz said after headlining a rally for Karoline Leavitt, the Republican candidate for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, before a couple of hundred voters and activists.

“I don’t know what Trump’s going to decide — nobody does. Anybody who tells you they do is making things up,” the senator said. “The whole world will change depending on what Donald Trump decides. That’s true for every candidate. That’s true of every potential candidate.”

In other news, Youngkin was asked about 2024, and he dodged the question, talking about how he’s focused on his current job.  Here’s what he said when asked if he has presidential ambitions:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/glenn-youngkin-reacts-speculation-presidential-ambitions-2024

GLENN YOUNGKIN: “My ambitions right now are to be the best governor that I possibly can be in Virginia, and we've had a great first eight months. I'm also finding that there's a great opportunity for me to support Virginia candidates running for Congress and I've often thought that the road to the majority in our House of Representatives comes through Virginia.

“We've got great candidates: Yesli Vega in the 7th, Jen Kiggans in the 2nd and Hung Cao in the 10th. We can win these races, that's why we're working hard for them… This is the future of the Republican Party — it's amazing.”

[Mr. Morden]

Jill Biden says she has so far had no discussion with Joe about whether he’ll run for a second term:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/politics/jill-biden-2024/index.html

“Not yet. We’ve been a little bit too busy. So, not yet,” Biden said to NBC’s “Today” in a sit-down interview that aired Tuesday morning but was prerecorded Monday in Knoxville, Tennessee. “But, I’m sure it will be a discussion.”
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The White House has constantly indicated Biden intends to run for reelection 2024, though more recently there have been concerns among some Democrats as to whether a second-term campaign is a fait accompli. Biden’s advanced age and low approval numbers have raised questions about his viability with voters.

CNN reported in August that a campaign is a heavy lift that not everyone in the family longs for, say two people with knowledge of internal family conversations.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden says he’ll decide on 2024 some time after the midterms:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3649720-biden-says-he-intends-to-run-in-2024-has-not-made-a-firm-decision/

“Look, my intention as I said to begin with is that I would run again,” Biden said in an interview with “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday. “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”
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“I’m a great respecter of fate. And so, what I’m doing is I’m doing my job. I’m gonna do that job. And within the timeframe that makes sense after this next election cycle here, going into next year, make a judgment on what to do,” Biden said.

Meanwhile, Trump says that an indictment wouldn’t stop him from running for president again:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/sep/16/donald-trump-says-an-indictment-wont-deter-him-fro/

“I don’t think the people of the United States would stand for it,” Mr. Trump said. “And as you know, if a thing like that happened, I would have no prohibition against running.”

Pressed on public reaction to an indictment, the ex-president said, “They will not sit still and stand for this ultimate of hoaxes.”

Many interpreted that as an indirect warning of violence, though Mr. Trump insisted he was not trying to incite anyone and stating his opinion.