The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Kristi Noem also campaigned in Georgia this past weekend:

https://www.keloland.com/news/investigates/gov-noem-makes-stops-in-tx-ga-as-covid-19-death-toll-mounts-in-sd/

[Mr. Morden]

Politico says Trump has been talking with a variety of friendly voices about how he can best continue to draw attention to himself (er….”stay part of the conversation”) after he leaves office.  According to those reportedly in the loop, he’s said that he intends to run for president again, but it’s not clear if he’s actually going to imminently launch his campaign for real, or just tease one without formally getting in the race.  And even if he does formally get in the race, he might drop out in two years if he determines he’ll “have a tough time winning”:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/14/trump-2024-possible-run-444460

The president has spent days calling a dozen or more allies to ask what they think he needs to do over the next two years to “stay part of the conversation,” according to two people, including one who spoke to the president. And while Trump has told allies he plans to run for president again, he has also indicated he could back out in two years if he determines he’ll have a tough time winning, said three people familiar with the discussions.

Essentially, at this point, Trump appears just as interested in people talking about a Trump 2024 campaign as he is in actually launching a real campaign, even if he may ultimately turn his flirtation into a serious bid, according to interviews with 11 Republicans who worked for Trump or helped in his two races.

Formally running for president would mean a lot of things aides say Trump doesn’t want to deal with: financial disclosure forms, building campaign infrastructure, the possibility of losing again. But simply teasing a presidential run — without actually filing the paperwork or erecting a campaign — gets Trump the attention he needs for the next two years.
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Some allies have privately urged Trump to announce he is running on Inauguration Day – as he did in 2017 — to try to take attention away from Biden and satisfy Trump’s need for attention. But Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and top aide, and Bill Stepien, Trump’s 2020 campaign manager, are advising him to take his time to announce, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

[Mr. Morden]

The Trump campaign is polling its supporters about whether he should run again in 2024:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-concede-biden-2024-run-again-b1775285.html

In a campaign email sent to the president’s supporters this week, a poll asked whether “President Trump should run for President of the United States in 2024” while continuing to promote false claims surrounding the national vote.

McEnany was asked why that is:

https://www.wbap.com/news/kayleigh-mcenany-trump-2024-run-is-there-for-his-taking/

In remarks on “Fox & Friends,” McEnany initially dodged the issue when questioned by co-host Steve Doocy.

“Today, you are appearing as campaign spokesperson, yet I think it was last night the campaign sent out a fundraising email from the campaign asking ‘should President Trump run in 2024?’ What was that about?” Doocy asked.

She said she thought the campaign was “just putting out that thought.”

But Doocy pressed, “You are the campaign spokesperson.”

“Yes, yes,” she replied, insisting: “He is still focused on 2020.”

“But 2024 — look, he’s the leader of this movement,” she said. “No matter what happens in 2020, 2024 is there is for his taking. His base is strong.

In other news, Mark Cuban still floating the idea of running for president:

https://heavy.com/news/mark-cuban-president-2024-scoop-b/

“Based on everything I know right now… no,” Mark Cuban told me on the Heavy Live With Scoop B Show.

“But, like you said if everything goes south, it depends on how they go south and how far south and whether or not that I would be the right person, you know? I wouldn’t do it just to do it. I would only do it if I thought if I was the right person and you know we got time so there’s a whole lot of other qualified people out there too — like you Scoop, what about you? Would you run?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump no longer expected to imminently declare his candidacy:

https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-2e3b220b-9b62-4337-8e3f-d1c1b7f037fb.html

President Trump's closest confidants no longer expect him to imminently announce he's running in 2024, Jonathan Swan is told by three sources who've recently discussed the matter with the president.

Between the lines: Trump doesn't want to announce a run before January 20 — an idea he had initially toyed with — because it would show his base he’s given up his fight to overturn the election.

While Trump definitely wants to hold out the possibility of running, he is not sure he wants to go through the official FEC process anytime soon, a person familiar with Trump’s thinking said.

[Mr. Morden]

This is from about a week and a half ago now, but for whatever it’s worth with respect to Trump’s decision to run in ’24 or not, Melania reportedly is unhappy with White House life, and would be pretty unenthusiastic about another Trump run:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/melania-trump-2024

“She just wants to go home,” a source familiar with Melania’s “state of mind” told CNN’s Kate Bennet. Asked how the first lady feels about the possibility her husband could run again in 2024, the source added: “That might not go over well.”

Which is not exactly a shock! For one thing, the first lady basically had to be paid off to move to Washington in 2017, reportedly delaying her move until the terms of her prenup with the president were renegotiated. (The White House denied this.) For another, like Trump, she seems to hate living in the White House and all the responsibilities that come with it (see: expressing sympathy for migrant children separated from their parents; creating initiatives that don’t read like SNL skits; giving a f--k about Christmas). So yeah, she’s ready to get the hell out of there and never go back.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chris-christie-trump-2024-presidential-run

Here’s the relevant excerpt from that story:

Former two-term New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he wouldn’t rule out another presidential bid even if his longtime friend President Trump launches a 2024 run to try to return to the White House.

Christie – who ran unsuccessfully for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination before suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump – was asked Monday during a radio interview with conservative host Hugh Hewitt if he’d rule out a run of his own if Trump, who’s already flirting with another White House bid, decides to launch a 2024 campaign.

"I would not. No," Christie said. "I would not rule it out, Hugh."
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Asked by Hewitt if he already has a Chris Christie 2024 web domain reserved, the former governor noted that he has ownership of ChrisChristie.com. "So we’re going to keep that one, and we’ll see where we go from here, Christie added.

[Mr. Morden]

Senior Trump officials are preparing to set up a policy group once Trump leaves office, which’ll be something of a landing spot for Trump alumni.  And Trump himself is said to be supportive.  Whether you take this as suggesting it’s more or less likely that he’s going to run for prez again is up to interpretation, but I think it’s further evidence that he’s not going to legally launch another campaign imminently:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/22/trump-advisers-launch-policy-group-449886

Senior advisers to President Donald Trump are preparing to launch a nonprofit group to promote the president’s policies once he leaves office, creating a landing spot for former Trump officials after the White House changes hands.

White House domestic policy adviser Brooke Rollins and National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow have been putting the organization together and are expected to be heavily involved once it gets off the ground. National Security adviser Robert O’Brien and former Energy Secretary Rick Perry are also among those likely to play roles.

Word of the yet-to-be-named outfit comes as top White House officials plot their futures and Trump’s post-presidential political apparatus gradually comes into focus, featuring a new PAC and potentially other entities as well. The new nonprofit group is expected to become a destination for many of the administration’s top policy advisers and Cabinet officials.
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“The president is very enthusiastic about this,” Kudlow said in a Tuesday interview.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/AustinGossSD/status/1340691629846499329

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1341479679501492225

[Mr. Morden]

I guess this must mean that Ivanka is running for president ( )

https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1343641095549427713

[Mr. Morden]

The RNC will hold its annual winter meeting next week (Jan. 6-8) on Amelia Island, FL, and the following potential 2024ers are all invited to attend:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-clear-republican-frontrunner-2024-white-house-race

Trump, Pence, Haley, Cotton, Cruz, Hawley, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Rubio, DeSantis, and Noem.

[Mr. Morden]

One means of testing the waters that many POTUS candidates use is writing a book, and it looks like that isn't going well for Hawley:

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1347313804334522372

[Mr. Morden]

I don’t really believe her, since she spent so much of 2020 visiting early primary states, but Noem claims she’s not going to run for president in 2024:

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2021/01/06/gov-noem-run-president-2024-shes-finally-answering-directly/6571470002/

"No," the governor said Wednesday afternoon after being asked if she will run for president in 2024, during a trip to Sioux Falls.  "I am focused on staying here in South Dakota."

[Mr. Morden]

Corker 2024? Politico is bringing up the possibility: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/bob-corker-future-trump-456588

Here’s the relevant excerpt about a run for future office:

Now with Trump on his way out and the GOP reckoning with Trumpism, Corker isn’t ruling out another run for office. He said that he has completed his self-imposed two-year sabbatical from public life, though his two terms in the Senate were enough to satisfy his desire to legislate.

His state's governorship is up in 2022, and obviously a wide-open presidential primary waits in 2024. Corker has never considered challenging Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R), according to a source familiar with his thinking.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico on Trump’s vanishing 2024 plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/trump-2024-campaign-456692

After he lost his reelection bid in November, Donald Trump immediately told allies he planned to run for president again in 2024, preparing to announce as soon as Inauguration Day.

He began backing off the idea after learning that running would require him to release a new round of financial documents that would make him vulnerable to his ongoing criminal and civil investigations and lawsuits, according to two Republicans close to Trump.

Then came last week.
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In interviews, more than half a dozen Republicans who had supported or worked for Trump say the president isn’t likely to run again, though he may tease it. If Trump changes his mind again and chooses to run, some said they would urge him not to, while others hope he’d be talked out of it.

“I think nothing is going to happen,” said a Trump friend. “He won’t be around in 2024. He’s not going to run. He’s going to f**k around and say he’s going to run. … He’ll tease. I don’t think he’s ever going to say ‘I won’t run.’ He just won’t run."

[Mr. Morden]

Haley has formed a PAC:

https://www.postandcourier.com/columbia/nikki-haley-starts-pac-as-her-expected-2024-white-house-bid-takes-shape/article_78e3ab50-55f1-11eb-9421-3f3b7a293f1f.html

The PAC, named after her other political group Stand for America, will be “laser-focused on the 2022 midterms and electing a conservative force to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to serve as a bulwark against the liberal agendas of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi,” Haley said in an email to supporters Wednesday.

Haley has demurred when asked about her presidential ambitions. But she has taken several steps since leaving the United Nations at the end of 2018 to suggest she will run, including releasing a second book and starting the first Stand for America political advocacy group. 

In a filing with the Federal Election Commission, the new PAC lists Bradley Crate of Massachusetts as the treasurer. Crate’s firm was the treasurer for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and he was a top financial officer in Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. 
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Importantly, the PAC will pay for Haley to travel around the country to campaign for other candidates, a move that will provide her more publicity among voters while building GOP allies ahead of a 2024 White House bid.

[Mr. Morden]

If true, then I guess Trump won't be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee:

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1351704630045134851

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Trump reportedly musing on whether he’ll be too old to run next time:

https://www.axios.com/off-the-rails-trump-last-stand-georgia-96520903-6405-47e7-962b-beac06abdb68.html

"Mr. President, if it doesn't work out, will you run again?" McIntosh asked. Trump's response was a rare and transitory blip from his usual strident pose. "Yeah, I'm thinking about that," he said. "But you know, I'm going to be four years older."

[Mr. Morden]

According to Politico, Biden plans to run for reelection in 2024.

I think that overstates things slightly.  The headline is "Biden 'is planning to run again' in 2024", with the "is planning to run again" in quotes.  They're reporting that Coons is *saying* that Biden plans to run again, rather than that they (Politico) independently confirm this.  The fact that Coons says this on the record as opposed to it being anonymously sourced makes me a little *less* likely to believe it, since why would Coons be blabbing about such a thing if it's top secret information?  (And if it's true, but *not* top secret information, then Biden or a spokesman would just say it.)

More likely, Coons means Biden "is planning to run again" in the sense that he's planning for that contingency, even if he might still not pull the trigger.  But I guess we'll see if other sources confirm this or not.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump: "We will be back in some form":

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/america-votes/donald-s-departure-president-trump-is-in-florida-now-1.5274229

His presidency over, Donald Trump said farewell to Washington on Wednesday but also hinted about a comeback despite a legacy of chaos, tumult and bitter divisions in the country he led for four years.

"So just a goodbye. We love you," Trump told supporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland where he walked across a red carpet and boarded Air Force One to head to Florida. "We will be back in some form."

[Mr. Morden]

Mark Cuban again doesn't rule out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/mark-cuban-president-2024-reason-only

Cuban told Brandon “Scoop B” Robinson on his podcast Wednesday that it would depend if he thought he was the “right person” for the job.

“Based on everything I know now, no. But I mean like you said, if things go south, it depends on how they go south and how far south and whether or not I thought I would be the right person. I wouldn’t do it just to do it. I would only do it if I thought I was the right person. We’ve got time so there’s a whole lot of other qualified people out there too,” Cuban told Robinson.

[Mr. Morden]

If true, then I guess Trump won't be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee:

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1351704630045134851

OK, maybe not:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1353463828604973057

[Mr. Morden]

Hawley has apparently been planning to run for president in 2024 for decades now:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/25/josh-hawley-school-yearbook-2024-republican-run

Josh Hawley, the Republican from Missouri who faces calls for expulsion from the Senate over his support of Donald Trump’s attempts to overturn his election defeat, signed a friend’s eighth-grade yearbook “Josh Hawley, president 2024”.

The same yearbook named Hawley and the friend whose yearbook he signed among “future presidents”, the Kansas City Star reported.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running?

That's not new.  He's been saying that at least since November:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348884.msg7719193#msg7719193

Noem also says she's not running, but she spent much of 2020 visiting early primary states, so I don't believe her.  Hawley has *not* been visiting early primary states, so maybe he's telling the truth, but it's still kind of early to be putting much stock in anyone's denials.

[Mr. Morden]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2021/01/27/hawley-answers-whether-hes-planning-a-2024-presidential-run-n2583777

"I've always said…that I'm not running for president," Hawley told Fox News. "It's a privilege to represent the state of Missouri in the United States Senate. I just got elected barely two years ago. There's a lot of work to do, and I look forward to continuing to fight for Missouri every day that I can."

This isn't really Shermanesque, since "I'm not running" is present tense, and doesn't rule out the possibility of running in a couple of years.