The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Tucker Carlson says he has no interest in running for president:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/tucker-carlson-pours-cold-water-on-talk-of-2024-bid/ar-BB18ecq9?li=BBnb7Kz

Asked whether he wanted to run for president in 2024, Carlson said: "I've never been involved in anything like that, I've never wanted to be involved in anything like that. I'll tell you this: I'm completely committed to saying what I think is true, and politics is a hard place to do that.

"I love what I'm doing. I'm grateful to work at Fox, I'm not just saying that... so I've got a contract that extends a while and I plan to be here.

"Imagine a country where I'm considered a serious candidate for something, it's just hard to imagine anything like that."

When the host Aidan McLaughlin said he wasn't hearing a hard "no" to the idea of a 2024 presidential run, Carlson replied: "No, I'm not running for anything, come on."

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton pressed on 2024, and gives a non-answer.  He also won’t commit to serving an entire 6 year term in the Senate after he’s reelected this year:

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/08/sen-tom-cotton-offers-preview-of-primetime-gop-speech/

Brock: Your speech is being touted as a preview to the 2024 Presidential election. It’s a prime time spot. Will you run for President in 2024 or do you support the President’s notion that he should be given 12 more years?

Sen. Cotton: What did he say – 12 more years? He really wants to cause the media to blow a gasket. My speech previews the case that the President and I and others will make for President Trump against Joe Biden over the next two months. It also previews some of the themes in which I’m running on re-election as well, to help keep America safe and keep us out of war and defend our interests and defend our prosperity. But it is not a preview of anything further.

Brock: Seriously though, will you serve out six years as a U.S. Senator, assuming you’re re-elected in November?

Sen. Cotton: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and presume  that I’ll be re-elected. I still have to earn six more years in the U.S. Senate and the people of Arkansas.

Brock: Your odds are good. I think it’s a legitimate question to ask. It’s been asked of other politicians when they’ve had these national opportunities.

Sen. Cotton: Well, again, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, Roby. Let’s talk on November 4th.

[Mr. Morden]

A NYT story from last week about Pence's moves:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/us/politics/mike-pence-trump-vp.html

His aides, encouraged by Republican National Committee officials, had hoped to send Mr. Pence for a grand tour of all 50 state delegations at the 2020 convention, the kind of ritual outreach that can forge friendships for a future campaign. But when the in-person convention was scrapped, that broader plan went with it.

More recently, Mr. Pence has held a series of luncheons with Republican political consultants, including some who do not work for the Trump campaign, gathering them either at the Naval Observatory or the Trump Hotel in downtown Washington for wide-ranging conversations about the political landscape. People invited to participate have interpreted the sessions as an effort by Mr. Pence to expand his brain trust ahead of 2024; Pence aides claimed they’ve been a chance to get feedback for the Trump re-election campaign during a period when the president has been shaking up his staff.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)

[Mr. Morden]

Sasse is asked if he’s going to run for president in 2024, and dodges the question:

https://omaha.com/news/local/sen-ben-sasse-in-comfortable-position-ahead-of-debate-with-chris-janicek-tonight/article_29e6fa6a-1c61-5dcb-9ed1-536e0f17c1f5.html

He smiled and changed the subject when asked whether he plans a presidential run in 2024.
He said that Americans still have a decision to make in 2020 and that he’s not yet sure what the conservative movement will look like in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a story from a couple of weeks ago about Don Jr.:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/magazine/donald-trump-jr.html

The bottom line conclusion from the story is that Don Jr. is very much into politics, but those close to him are skeptical that he’d actually run for office within the next four years, and that he might instead become a talk radio host, conservative pundit, or even seek to become chairman of the RNC:

Although he would obviously prefer that his father win in November, people close to him say that, in some ways, having Trump out of the White House would be advantageous for Trump Jr. They use words like “unshackled” and “free” and speculate excitedly about his running for office in Montana or Florida — or, a few dare to dream, even the presidency — in 2024.

Those who are familiar with Trump Jr.’s thinking, though, say that’s not going to happen — at least not in the next four years. “Don can do everything he wants to do in politics,” says the person close to him, “without running for office.” The wolf pack talks about how Trump Jr. would be a natural podcaster or talk-radio host; Fox News — or perhaps a new conservative TV channel — could give him his own show. He has expressed interest in playing a prominent role in a revivified National Rifle Association and is open to the idea of serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee. This month, he will release his second book, “Liberal Privilege,” a rehash of Biden’s various supposed sins that he wrote during the pandemic lockdown.

Oh, and he’s reportedly pessimistic about November, and worried about criminal prosecutions of the family if Trump loses:

But Trump Jr. is apparently worried. “Don’s the only person who thinks they’re going to lose,” says a prominent conservative activist who is in regular contact with him and other key members of Trump’s political operation. “He’s like, ‘We’re losing, dude, and we’re going to get really hurt when we lose.’” An electoral defeat in November, Trump Jr. fears, could result in federal prosecutions of Trump, his family and his political allies. He has told the conservative activist that he expects that a Biden administration will not participate in a “peaceful transition” and instead will “shoot the prisoners.” (“This is 100 percent false,” Surabian says. “Don does not have these concerns.”)

Shoot the prisoners? As much as I'd like to see the Trump family executed, I can assure everyone a Biden Presidency would not do such a thing.

Pretty sure that's a colorful metaphor for throwing them in jail, not a literal execution, lol.

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem is a keynote speaker at a Lincoln day dinner in Iowa and a fundraiser in Ohio

Here's the info on the former:

https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/gov-noem-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/article_47c472ce-d628-5662-8d36-e7caf1bbe7f3.html

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be the keynote speaker on Sept. 4 at the Pottawattamie County (Iowa) Republican Party's annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner.

So this did indeed happen a couple of days ago:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1302241078884659202

Also of note: Various sources (like this blog post) have commented on Noem appearing at various events (like this Iowa one) that were also attended by Corey Lewandowski.  I guess there's speculation that Lewandowski might end up advising Noem if she does make a national run.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump released a list of names of potential Supreme Court appointments for a (currently hypothetical) 2nd term, and it includes Cotton, Cruz, and Hawley.  Cotton released a statement suggesting that he would accept, Cruz sounds somewhat noncommittal, but Hawley outright says “I have no interest in the high court”:

https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1303787915668074497

Cotton sounds like he’d take it (“I will always heed the call of service to our nation”):

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1418

“I’m honored that President Trump asked me to consider serving on the Supreme Court and I’m grateful for his confidence. I will always heed the call of service to our nation. The Supreme Court could use some more justices who understand the difference between applying the law and making the law…

Cruz says he’s happy with the Senate, but doesn’t rule out accepting a judicial nomination:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/09/ted-cruz-supreme-court-donald-trump/

"It's humbling and an immense honor to be considered for the Supreme Court," Cruz said. "In the Senate, I have been blessed to lead the fight to preserve our constitutional liberties —every day, to defend the rights of 29 million Texans — and I look forward to continuing to do so for many years to come.”

[Mr. Morden]

That sounds like they may take the SCOTUS nomination in case of Trump's reelection. Not just because he's unlikely to get another opening at the court before the 2020 election, but also because declining the offer for a 2024 run 4 prez is likely not worth it. Hawley and Cruz are smart enough to figure out how unlikely a GOPer is to be will be elected prez after 2 terms of Trump, assuming they even make it to the GOP nomination.

But Hawley's the one who says he's not interested.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence claims (presumably untruthfully) that he hasn’t thought past the 2020 election yet, so doesn’t know if he’ll run in 2024:

https://dailycaller.com/2020/09/10/mike-pence-2024-president-donald-trump/

“I haven’t given any thought to anything beyond the election in 2020 because I think this election is so important to the life of the nation. I think this could well be one of the most important elections in the long and storied history of the United States, because we’re really deciding what path we will take,” Pence said.

“By winning in 2020, we have an opportunity to continue to take our nation on the path that President Trump set us on in 2016, so all of my energies, all of my focus is dedicated to that prospect, and we’ll let the future take care of itself,” he added.

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz now says he’s not interested in a Supreme Court appointment:

https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/ted-cruz-says-he-doesnt-want-to-be-on-the-supreme-court/

Sen. Ted Cruz walked back any expression of interest in being on the Supreme Court after being included on President Trump’s shortlist to be nominated to the nation’s highest bench.

Speaking to Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Cruz (R-Tx.) was blunt when asked by host Maria Bartiromo if he would want to the job.

“You know, I don’t. It is deeply honoring, it’s humbling to be included in the list. I’m grateful that the president has that confidence in me. But it’s not the desire of my heart,” the Texas Republican said.
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“I want to be in the political fight. I want to be fighting to nominate and confirm three, four, five principled, constitutionalist justices. But that’s not where I want to serve. I want to stay fighting right where I am in the US Senate,” the Texas senator said.

So of the three Senators who Trump has floated as potential SCOTUS nominees (in the event that Trump has a chance to fill another vacancy), only Cotton has sounded interested.  Cruz and Hawley have both suggested they’re not interested.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo hints that, even if Trump wins reelection, he might not stick around as SoS for a second term:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-pompeo/pompeo-expects-conversation-on-whats-next-for-him-if-trump-wins-idUSKBN2662C5

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday he expected to have a conversation about what role he may play if President Donald Trump wins a second term, saying “there is still a lot of work to do and I would love to find a way to be a part of that.”

It was unclear from Pompeo’s comment, made in response to a multi-part question during a virtual think tank appearance, whether he was suggesting a willingness to continue as U.S. secretary of state or in some other role.

An evangelical Christian, Pompeo is suspected of harboring presidential ambitions, possibly as early as the 2024 election. He became secretary of state in April 2018 after serving as Trump’s CIA director.

He also suggested that he never really gave very serious consideration to running for Senate this year:

“I love Kansas. My wife and I miss it dearly. That was the attractive piece of considering the race but we never, frankly, considered running very actively,” he said.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio asked about his future after his current term in the Senate ends:

https://floridianpress.com/2020/09/rubio-may-have-signaled-a-future-run-for-president/

Rubio’s “I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it (public service) in some form or fashion down the road” remark appears to have left the door open for either another run for Senate or a more probable run for President.

“I enjoy very much being in public office because I wake up every morning, I can see something in the world that I think needs to be addressed, and I’m in a place where I can actually try to do something about it. I’ve enjoyed doing that a lot, and I hope to have the opportunity to continue doing it in some form or fashion down the road.” 

Rubio has told close friends and supporters that running for president is not off the table looking down the road,  but that running for re-election to the Senate would be a little bit of a stretch.

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem will be speaking at a GOP fundraiser in New Hampshire on Oct. 15th:

https://www.wmur.com/article/republican-rising-star-south-dakota-gov-kristi-noem-plans-october-visit-to-nh/34015643#

That story also notes something I missed: That back in July, Noem gave what looks to me like a non-denial about 2024:

https://apnews.com/68781b3760b1260fb17efee86a867dc6

“I spent eight years in Washington, D.C.,” Noem said, referring to her tenure as a congresswoman. “I am so happy to be home in South Dakota.”

The headline of that story is “Noem says she is not interested in 2024 presidential run.  But if the above is all she said in response to a 2024 question, then that hardly seems like an “I’m not interested” statement.  It sounds like evading the question.  In any case, she just visited Iowa and is now visiting New Hampshire, so her intentions seem pretty clear.

[Mr. Morden]

Nikki Haley will be doing two events in New Hampshire next week:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-former-ambassador-nikki-haley-headed-to-nh-to-help-mowers/34133079

[Mr. Morden]

Also of note: Various sources (like this blog post) have commented on Noem appearing at various events (like this Iowa one) that were also attended by Corey Lewandowski.  I guess there's speculation that Lewandowski might end up advising Noem if she does make a national run.

And here's another Lewandowski-Noem event:

https://twitter.com/anitakumar01/status/1313300208026112001

[Mr. Morden]

It’s questionable how much this actually has to do with 2024, since Iowa is still a (sort of) swing state, but should note that Pence did a campaign event in Iowa last week:

https://www.ketv.com/article/iowa-democrats-protest-vice-president-rally-supporters-praise-president-trump/34241916

This is also only questionably about 2024 (and I’m still skeptical that Don Jr. will run, but Don Jr. is doing a big campaign tour that’ll include the early caucus states of Iowa and Nevada:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1314745057908580352

[Mr. Morden]

Nikki Haley will be doing two events in New Hampshire next week:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-former-ambassador-nikki-haley-headed-to-nh-to-help-mowers/34133079

Should be mentioned that while in New Hampshire, Haley gave a non-denial about 2024:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/surge-in-requests-for-absentee-ballots-On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-36565709

But Haley told the Monitor that it was far too early for such talk, emphasizing that “it would be foolish to look at a presidential race in 2024 when a year is a lifetime in politics.”

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott visited Iowa a few weeks ago:

https://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2020/09/tim-scott-joins-joni-ernst-for-fighting-for-iowa-tour-kickoff/

Also, if we want to go back a few years before this thread even started, there are a few Iowa visits from prospective 2024ers that I don’t think were mentioned in this thread….

Haley visited in the summer of 2019:

https://politicalwire.com/2019/06/01/nikki-haley-heads-to-iowa/

Sasse visited in 2018:

https://www.amestrib.com/news/20181026/sasse-visits-isu-to-discusses-divisions-in-foreign-policy

And Cotton visited it way back in 2017:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/05/20/rising-gop-figure-tom-cotton-iowa-trump-faces-turmoil/334024001/

[Mr. Morden]

Presumably this doesn't really mean anything, since NH is just one of many swing states he's visiting, but in the interests of documenting every NH trip, Pence will be in NH on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/VPComDir/status/1318169584336240641

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem found in Iowa, with Corey Lewandowski on her team.

She was there last month.  Are you saying she went back?  Because a quick search didn't turn anything up, but I may have missed it.

[Mr. Morden]

Again, I remain skeptical that either would actually follow through with this, but Don Jr., while in the early caucus state of Nevada (but also 2020 “swing state”, and that’s presumably his primary reason for being there), posed in front of a “Don Jr. 2024” flag:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/24/trump-sons-hint-at-future-runs-as-presidents-polling-looks-dire/#3fa48a0f0b0f

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son who helps run the Trump Organization as an executive vice president and has been one of his father’s most active surrogates this year, posted a photo of a “Don Jr. 2024” flag to instagram.

Donald Trump Jr. wrote that it will “make liberal heads explode” and that “to whomever made [the sign] thanks for the compliment… but let’s get through 2020 with a big win first.”

But then Eric wanted to get in on the action too:

Eric Trump, also an executive vice president at the Trump Organization and a Trump campaign surrogate, liked a tweet on Saturday reading “Eric Trump 2024,” a move some commentators recognized as roughly equivalent to his brother’s instagram post.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley campaigned today in Iowa for Ashley Hinson and Marianette Miller-Meeks:

While in Iowa, she was asked about 2024:

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/nikki-haley-for-president-2024-iowa-us-senate-ashley-hinson-20201022

“There’s time to worry about ’24 in ’22,” Haley said.

However, Iowa isn’t the only stop on the itinerary for Haley, who will be 52 in 2024. She’s campaigning for Republicans in New Hampshire — host of the first-in-the-nation primary election, as well as in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
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But a 2024 candidacy “is not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on,” said Haley, who after leaving her UN post formed Stand for America, which advocates for policies to strengthen the economy, culture and national security.

A presidential run is “not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on”?  So is that a de facto admission that she’s spent *some* time thinking about it?

[Mr. Morden]

A presidential run is “not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on”?  So is that a de facto admission that she’s spent *some* time thinking about it?

Every single politician has spent *some* time thinking about it.

I know, but they usually pretend they haven't, so this is a gaffe. 

[Mr. Morden]

Noem was just in NH a couple of weeks ago, and she'll be back on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1320861162167246849