The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

I guess this is relevant, since there's been speculation about whether Don Jr., or less likely, Ivanka, might run for president if their father doesn't, but looks like Ivanka is trying to decide whether to move her family to NJ or FL, and this tweet says that she "has no immediate intention to pursue elected office herself", and that Don Jr. "may not either":

https://twitter.com/anniekarni/status/1329517249288343553

[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Times says that Trump is telling people in his orbit that he plans to run in ’24, but that they’re not convinced he’s going to formally pull the trigger any time soon:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/nov/18/donald-trump-2024-president-privately-planning-nex/

President Trump, despite publicly declaring he won the Nov. 3 election, is privately telling people he plans on running again for president in 2024, The Washington Times has learned.
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A Republican strategist with close ties to the White House said rumblings of Trump 2024 are no joke or the kind of offhand comment that Mr. Trump often makes.

“He is definitely telling people that in a serious manner,” the strategist said.

“Now at the end of the day, even if in his head he doesn’t want to run, we won’t know until he pulls the trigger after a couple of years,” the strategist said. “He is going to milk it. Even if he doesn’t want to run, he is going to milk it to the very, very end. The guy knows how to get media attention. It is probably his greatest talent.”

[Mr. Morden]

2024ers descend on Georgia:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/republican-2024-presidential-hopefuls-already-descending-on-newfound-battleground-georgia-01605817090

The state has fast become a stage for the cast of possible Republican presidential candidates after President Donald Trump’s defeat. Even as votes are still being tallied in the last election, Georgia’s two high-profile Senate contests are drawing top GOP politicians to the state to campaign, network and raise their profiles.

Too soon?

Not if you’re Marco Rubio. The Florida Republican arrived in Georgia last week to rally Republicans behind Senate colleagues David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler as they try to quash their respective Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

Fellow Floridian Rick Scott followed last Friday.

A third Republican senator widely viewed as having presidential ambitions, Tom Cotton of Arkansas senator, will campaign in central Georgia on Friday.


Vice President Mike Pence is also due in the state on Friday.

Meanwhile, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley has sent a flurry of fundraising emails coaxing rank-and-file Republicans to bankroll the Georgia runoff campaigns. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a former presidential candidate, has mentioned the contests in his regular circuit of cable television appearances. Loeffler’s campaign website homepage features a photo of the senator with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio’s take on Trump 2024 suggests he’s not particularly interested in getting in the race if Trump is a candidate as well:

https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-signal-trump-here-stay-he-mulls-2024-presidential-run-hell-nominee-1548461

"He has forced this country to confront issues that both parties ignored for far too long, and if he runs in 2024, it's my view he'll be the nominee," Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told Newsweek. "He'll remain the most influential Republican in the country for the foreseeable future. There's no doubt about that."

[Mr. Morden]

Some talk about Texas politics here, which mentions the possibility of Abbott and/or Cruz running in 2024:

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-republicans-eye-2022-and-beyond-after-romping-in-november-election/

The story notes that Texas law does allow a candidate to run for multiple offices for once (see also Lloyd Bentsen ’88), so Cruz could, if he wanted to, run for reelection for Senate while also running in the ’24 presidential primary.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.mediaite.com/news/dan-bongino-floats-2024-presidential-bid-if-trump-isnt-on-the-ballot-i-will-consider-entering-politics-again/

Pro-Trump pundit Dan Bongino floated on his podcast Monday that he would consider running for president of the United States in 2024.

“I hate politics,” Bongino said. “Paula [Bongino] is like, don’t you dare. I’m going to dare. I hate — I have said a thousand times on this show, ‘politics and me, no good.'”

The Fox News contributor then said that if Maryland’s Republican Governor Larry Hogan ran for president, he would challenge him.

“If Harry (sic) Hogan runs for president in 2024, and there is no one by the name of Trump on the ballot, I will consider entering politics again,” Bongino stated.
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For someone who hates politics so much, Bongino has made quite a few bids for public office. The pundit ran for Congress in Maryland and Florida three times, all unsuccessfully.

[Mr. Morden]

Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

Honestly being National Security Advisor is good prepping to *be* president, but I don't know that it prepares you to *run* for president.

From that story:

O’Brien himself has remained publicly mum on the subject. But his travel as national security adviser has included a slate of early presidential primary slates, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — an unusual combination for someone in his position. And one of O’Brien’s Republican friends said the trips have “amplified” his interest in running for president.
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There’s some evidence O’Brien did use these trips to enhance his political knowledge. During a September trip to Iowa to speak at Drake University, O’Brien asked a local political consultant to give him a “lay of the land” briefing on the state’s political situation, according to the consultant.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1330302111280746497

Here’s more from that story btw:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-2024-rematch/2020/11/21/58ce87ac-2a8d-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

In a nod to the reality that he is destined to leave office in January, the president is seriously contemplating life beyond the White House, telling advisers that he wants to remain an omnipresent force in politics and the media — perhaps by running for the White House again.
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Trump also has been exploring ways to make money for relatively little work, such as giving paid speeches to corporate groups or selling tickets to rallies. In addition, he may try to write a score-settling memoir of his time as president and appear on television, in a paid or unpaid capacity.

Though there has also been considerable chatter among Trump’s associates about his starting a media company of his own, many close to the president said they believe that option is less likely, in part because it would be an arduous undertaking without guaranteed success. These advisers, like some others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss sensitive topics.

There is also pressure on Trump to monetize his post-presidency in light of his personal debt and legal troubles. He has payments due over the next four years of more than $400 million in loans and could incur substantial legal fees related to a number of investigations and lawsuits.
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After Biden’s inauguration, Trump is likely to retreat first to Florida, where he vacations in the winter at his Mar-a-Lago Club, advisers said. While in office, he changed his voter registration from New York to Palm Beach, Fla. People who have discussed plans with Trump said he is likely to immediately get more involved in his businesses in which revenue has plunged.

[Mr. Morden]

O’Brien reportedly told Trump he’d back him in a hypothetical 2024 presidential bid, but Pence and Pompeo were noncommittal:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-26/top-trump-aide-o-brien-shadowed-in-asia-by-u-s-election-tumult

A few days before National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien left for a high-profile tour of southeast Asia, President Donald Trump delivered some news to him, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence in the Oval Office.

Trump planned to run for president again in 2024, he told the men, if he couldn’t overturn his Nov. 3 defeat by Joe Biden.

“If you do that -- and I think I speak for everybody in the room -- we’re with you 100 percent,” O’Brien responded, according to two people briefed on the conversation. Pompeo and Pence, who are both regarded as contenders for the 2024 Republican nomination, smiled but said nothing, the people said.

O’Brien also gave a non-denial when asked about his own 2024 ambitions:

“It’s silly season in Washington,” O’Brien told reporters traveling with him to Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, when asked on Monday whether he was considering a run. “I’m happy with my current job, and looking forward to going back to the private sector.”

But he allowed that “people send me text messages and emails” about a potential race.

And then here’s more from O’Brien and his dismissal of presidential ambitions, while also conceding that he won’t give a “Shermanesque” statement, since he doesn’t rule out running for office at some point:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527573-obrien-on-2024-talk-theres-all-kinds-of-speculation-out-there

White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien dismissed talk that he could potentially run for president in 2024, calling a recent report about his presidential aspirations “speculation.”

O’Brien, a staunch ally of President Trump, said a recent report from Politico was “what I call Washington inside-the-Beltway article. So I’m fully focused on my current job. I’m not running for anything right now.”

“I’m not going to make a Shermanesque statement about never running under any circumstances, but I’m focused on implementing the president’s agenda, and getting the foreign policy picture for the American people, and that’s all I’m focused on. But this is starting to become silly season for the Washington news media. And you know, there’s all kinds of speculation out there. So I leave that for what it is,” he said on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show.
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O’Brien said he would “never” run against Trump in four years, maintaining the president would “have my 100 percent support.”

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if Gabbard is actually interested in running for prez again, but this Washington Times story talks about the possibility, and mentions, among other things, that now that she’s leaving Congress, she’s also planning to leave Hawaii and move to California:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/nov/26/tulsi-gabbard-heading-off-to-uncertain-political-f/

The story also mentions that some in the Libertarian Party are trying to court her to join their party.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is reportedly thinking about doing some kind of 2024 event during inauguration week, and possibly even on Inauguration Day itself:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-already-gaming-out-a-2024-run-including-an-event-during-bidens-inauguration

According to three people familiar with the conversations, the president, who refuses to acknowledge he lost the 2020 election as he clearly did, has not just talked to close advisers and confidants about a potential 2024 run to reclaim the White House but about the specifics of a campaign launch. The conversations have explored, among other things, how Trump could best time his announcement so as to keep the Republican Party behind him for the next four years. Two of these knowledgeable sources said the president has, in the past two weeks, even floated the idea of doing a 2024-related event during Biden’s inauguration week, possibly on Inauguration Day, if his legal effort to steal the 2020 election ultimately fails.

The president and some of his closest associates have already started surveying prominent donors to get a sense of who would be with him, or perhaps against him, if he chose to run in the 2024 election. Some top Trump allies have told The Daily Beast that they are doing what they can to stay in the president’s good graces, calculating that doing so will help ensure a seat at the table and a future in the party—in the event he runs again.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is reportedly thinking about doing some kind of 2024 event during inauguration week, and possibly even on Inauguration Day itself:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-already-gaming-out-a-2024-run-including-an-event-during-bidens-inauguration

Fox News's John Roberts says his sources confirm the Daily Beast's story about a possible campaign launch on or around Inauguration Day.  But he goes further, in saying definitively that "Trump has told advisors that he wants to run again":

https://www.foxnews.com/us/trump-tells-aides-a-big-secret-he-wants-to-run-again-in-2024

President Trump has told advisors that he wants to run again in four years, and could potentially announce his bid before or even during Biden's Inauguration on Jan. 20, according to Fox News’ chief White House correspondent John Roberts, who confirmed a report from The Daily Beast.

Trump has publicly challenged the election result and told reporters last week that he doesn't "want to talk 2024 yet."

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1333958202166218752

[Mr. Morden]

“Preliminary planning” for a Trump 2024 kickoff event on January 20th:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-considers-2024-campaign-kick-inauguration-day-n1249595

President Donald Trump is discussing the possibility of announcing a campaign to retake the White House in 2024 on Inauguration Day and skipping the swearing-in of his successor, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

There is “preliminary planning” underway for a Jan. 20 event to kick off a new Trump bid, the people familiar with the discussions said, though it’s possible the president could make the announcement earlier as no final decisions have been made.

Regardless of the timing of a campaign announcement, Trump is not expected to attend the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, according to the people familiar with the discussions. He also does not plan to invite Biden to the White House or even call him, they said.

However, while the Jan. 20th event might be the first public event of the ’24 campaign, an announcement of his ’24 candidacy could come as much as a month before that:

Trump has recently told some advisers he wants to announce a 2024 campaign shortly after the Electoral College meets on Dec. 14, the people familiar with the discussions said. If he were to announce earlier, he could still hold a campaign-style event or rally on Jan. 20. The Daily Beast first reported that Trump might hold a rally on Inauguration Day.

If he does launch his campaign shortly after Dec. 14th, then I guess he’d be de facto conceding that he’s lost (even if he maintains that the process was unfair)?  So he’s not going to pin his hopes on more longshot strategies, like pressuring Congress to challenge the results when the electoral vote tally is presented on Jan. 6th?

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story about GOP congressional reaction to a Trump 2024 run, with Josh Hawley saying "I would support him doing that" [that is, running and becoming the nominee....which I guess is a pseudo-promise to endorse him?].  And Rick Scott says “It’d be great if he ran”, which I guess stops a bit short of saying that he himself would endorse Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/republicans-cheer-on-a-trump-2024-run-442310

“If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “He’d have a lot of support out in the country.”

“It’d be great if he ran. He’s done a good job. I think he ought to run if he wants to run. Who knows what’s going to happen in ‘24?” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said he is not focused on a presidential run at the moment. “He can sell the things he accomplished.”

Meanwhile, others are not ready to cheer Trump ’24, including potential 2024 candidate Tom Cotton:

Still, not every Republican in Congress felt like chatting about the matter after five years of Trump’s dominance over the party. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he doesn’t talk about those kinds of hypotheticals. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a potential presidential candidate, declined to comment. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she hasn’t “thought at all about 2024” and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said it was “too speculative” a topic.

And then Rubio says he thinks Trump would win, but also offers no promise to endorse him in the primary or forego a run of his own:

“We’re so far away from that. I will tell you this. If he runs, I think he would clearly be the favorite. I think he would win,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who ran against Trump in 2016 and has mulled another run in the future. “I know it’s an interesting story, but I have no idea.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-campaign-primary-cda9abf4-615c-4095-a2aa-1045f2a55970.html

Reality check: Several allies who talk regularly to Trump told Axios they believe he'll announce for 2024, but ultimately not make the run because of what one Republican close to Trump called "hurdles he has never before experienced."

Not clear what "announce but not make the run" means, since by most reckonings the act of announcing puts you in the race.  I mean, usually candidates formally file papers with the FEC on the day they announce their campaigns (or +/- 1 day of doing so).  Are they saying that Trump will announce a campaign without making it official with the FEC?  Or perhaps more likely, that he'd formally enter the race, but not do a ton of campaign legwork, then drop out after a while, or something like that.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump being a 'paper candidate' doesn't really vibe with the assumption that he'll be holding ego-boosting rallies. Either he's running or he's not

He'll do some rallies, but it hardly seems clear that running for president again is really going to be anything close to a full time job for him over these next few years.  E.g.:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-hints-2024-run-may-145304271.html

According to The Washington Post, as Trump is realizing that the end of his presidency is near, he is exploring other ways to make money. The president is reportedly considering giving paid speeches or selling tickets to his rallies. He is also considering writing a memoir and a renewed career in television.

Campaigning for president could easily end up just being a side gig for him for a while, and he could ultimately decide to drop it for any number of reasons (such as winding up in jail  ).

[Mr. Morden]

https://globalnews.ca/video/7497425/white-house-press-secretary-stays-mum-on-trumps-supposed-plan-to-run-for-president-in-2024

White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Wednesday she hasn’t spoken to President Donald Trump about comments he made during a White House party, wherein he hinted he’d run for president again in 2024. She said she’s aware of the purported plan, but the campaign is currently focusing on legal actions regarding the recent election results.

Also, it sounds like there’s indecision in Trump world about jumping into the ’24 race even before the Georgia runoff elections vs. doing it at the time of the inauguration vs. doing it shortly after inauguration day vs. keeping everyone in suspense for a couple of years:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/03/trump-2024-election-republicans-442728

Meanwhile, Trump has yet to make a decision on his own future. As recently as Wednesday, the president was mulling the idea of scheduling a campaign announcement on Jan. 20 to counterprogram Biden’s inauguration, according to two people familiar with the conversations. He has also discussed an announcement ahead of Georgia’s two Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5, believing his base’s excitement would increase turnout in the all-important contests.

Some Trump allies claim the president would help other Republicans, too, by declaring his candidacy almost immediately after leaving office, suggesting it would save the party a contentious primary between Trump-hostile characters and those vying to claim his ultra-loyal base. But other confidants have encouraged Trump to keep the public in suspense, and instead spend the next two years strategically undercutting the Biden administration and lending his help to House and Senate GOP candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

Rick Scott on 2024: “I’m not planning to run.”

Though that’s hardly shermanesque, as plans can change.  Anyway:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/386170-rick-scott-says-hes-not-planning-2024-presidential-run-backs-donald-trump

Scott told host Stuart Varney that Trump’s “had a good four years” and “he ought to do it again.”

“If that’s what he wants to do,” Scott disclaimed.
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Varney, who often interviews Scott, asked if he would run if Trump wouldn’t, and for the second time on national television in recent weeks, Scott disclaimed interest in the presidency.

“I’m not planning to run,” Scott told Varney. “I’m a new Senator. I’m working on my job as a U.S. Senator, trying to make sure I’m taking care of everybody in Florida.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/12/02/npr-president-trump-seriously-considering-2024-run-as-he-continues-false-2020-claims

A former campaign adviser who remains in touch with key players around Trump said his advisers are working under the assumption he will run again, and said he could announce by the end of the year or shortly before Inauguration Day. "He'll probably announce the night before inauguration, so that that becomes a conversation all throughout Joe Biden's inauguration," the former adviser said. But others said they hadn't heard anything that concrete.

Also, here’s another “potential 2024 candidates flock to Georgia” story:

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/04/942053653/georgia-senate-runoffs-lure-possible-2024-gop-hopefuls-including-trump

Among those showing up in recent weeks to lend a hand have been Vice President Pence, Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott of Florida, and Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. Others have helped out from afar, through fundraising and other means, such as former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who ran second to President Trump in the 2016 primaries, said he'll be there soon enough.
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But they could all be overshadowed when Trump travels there to campaign Saturday for Perdue and Loeffler at his first rally since losing the election, including the state of Georgia, to Joe Biden.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN talks about Pence's future plans (which presumably includes a '24 presidential run, but maybe only if Trump doesn't run):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/05/politics/pence-trump-2020-2024-future/index.html

It's not entirely clear what Pence's immediate plans are once he's out of office -- even down to where he's going to live. For nearly eight years, ever since he moved into the governor's residence in Indianapolis in early 2013, Pence and his wife Karen have lived in government housing. The first order of business, said his close friend, is finding a permanent place to sleep at night.

People close to Pence who spoke to CNN think he is most likely to decamp to Indiana rather than stick around Washington. The vice president's office declined to comment for this story.
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"He can spend the next couple years traveling the country, giving speeches, attending Republican events and fundraisers, keep an active and high profile while he makes the decision on whether he wants to run," said [former Pence spokesman Jon] Thompson.

That story also makes reference to this story about the RNC inviting several prospective 2024 candidates to the party's January meeting:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/rnc-2024-hopefuls-trump-442302

McDaniel is inviting roughly a dozen potential 2024 presidential candidates to the RNC's January meeting in Amelia Island, Fla. — the most explicit move she's made yet to show that the committee will be impartial going forward and not simply an extension of Trump’s political machine, even as he openly mulls a comeback bid.

The list of would-be candidates invited to speak includes South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley. Vice President Mike Pence, another potential contender, is planning to attend. Trump is also invited, though spokespersons declined to say whether he’d be going.
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The list of invitees to the RNC meeting also includes Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, and Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst. Three Florida Republicans — Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis — are also getting invitations.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump's potential campaign kickoff?:

https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-inauguration-florida-rally-78b56134-54ae-4113-ad0a-ae29cd5c7be1.html

President Trump is considering a made-for-TV grand finale: a White House departure on Marine One and final Air Force One flight to Florida for a political rally opposite Joe Biden's inauguration, sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

The former network star is privately discussing using his waning powers as commander in chief to order up the exit he wants after dissing Biden by refusing to concede the election, welcome him to the White House or commit to attending his inauguration.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo will join the long list of potential '24 candidates to campaign in Georgia:

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1335996518747222018

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1336114040796565507